⊙记者 唐真龙 ○编辑 龚维松

⊙ reporter don a real dragon GongWeiSong ○ editor

　　针对国家统计局昨日公布的经济数据，交行金研中心指出，尽管当前国内经济放缓的形势仍较为严峻，但要明显好于2008年的金融危机时期，且当前经济增速有政策主动调控的原因，政府也已经提高了对于经济增速放缓的容忍度。面对经济持续下滑的局面，通过政策的适度逆周期调节来对冲不利的外部冲击，应该就能扭转当前经济持续下行的趋势。

According to the national bureau of statistics released yesterday, economic data，Research center in the gold said，In spite of the current situation of the domestic economic slowdown is still more severe，But was better than the 2008 financial crisis period，And the current economic growth has policy initiative regulation of reason，The government has also improved for economic slowdown in tolerance。In the face of economic decline situation，Through the policy of moderate inverse cycle regulation to hedge adverse external shocks，Should be able to reverse the current downward trend continued economic。

　　交行金研中心判断政策的主基调仍是“稳中求进”，预调微调的力度会有所加大，但不会过于激进。在近期政府持续出台的一些稳定增长的政策作用下，预计今年三季度开始经济增速有望渐步回升。

In the center of the policy research gold judge advocate fundamental key is still“WenZhongQiuJin”，The strength of the fine-tuning presetters will increase，But not too radical。In the recent government continued on the introduction of the some of the stable growth under the role of policy，This year economic growth is expected to start in the third quarter is expected to rise gradually step。

　　根据交行金研中心的模型模拟来看，仅从数据内在走势规律判断，下半年实际GDP与二季度接近，可能会有微幅下降，但明年下降相对明显。然而，当前稳增长的货币、财政政策等外生变量可能对下半年GDP有上推的作用，全年GDP实际增速仍将可能保持在8%左右。

According to the research center in the gold of the model simulation and see，Only from the data within law trend of judgment，Real GDP in the second quarter of the second half with close to，There may be falling slightly，But relatively obvious fall next year。however，The current firm growth of currency、Finance exogenous variables for the second half of GDP on May have pushed role，Annual GDP growth will still be possible to keep the actual at around 8%。

　　交行金研中心特别指出，今年下半年和明年要特别注意防范由于稳增长政策和政府换届两个原因叠加而可能再次催生的投资过热现象。

Gold is particularly pointed out that in the research center，The second half of this year and next year to pay special attention to prevent due to steady growth and government policy change of superposition of two reasons may once again the fledgling investment of overheating。

　　在政策建议上，交行金研中心提出为实现经济的长期可持续增长，我国经济增长的长期动力应从原来粗放型的依赖投资驱动转向未来依靠全要素生产率的提升。从中长期来看，唯有逐步放开民间资本进入的限制、激发民间投资的活力以及深化市场经济体制改革，才是重启中国经济新增长周期的关键。

In the policy proposals，In the research center for gold put forward to realize the economic long-term sustainable growth，The economic growth in China's long-term power should be the original investment drive to extensive rely on future depends on total factor productivity in ascension。From which the long term，Only gradually unloosening folk capital into the restrictions、Stimulate private investment in the vigor and deepen market economy system reform，China's economy is to restart the new growth cycle of the key。