面临需求减少大考

Facing a big exam less demand

　　张一鸣

ZhangYiMing

　　2012年年内的第三次成品油价下调，上周三没有悬念地如约而至。在这场罕见的“三连跌”中，成品油市场中的各方面临新的市场环境，卖方市场已经转变为买方市场，成品油产业链上的相关企业需要尽快适应这种变化。

2012 years of the third finished product oil prices fall，Last Wednesday to keep the and to no suspense。In the rare“Three even fall”in，Each side of refined oil market is facing new market environment，Seller's market, have been transformed into a buyer's market，Oil industry chain of related enterprises need to adapt to the change as soon as possible。

　　油价下调之前，中国的成品油市场的表观消费量每年以5%左右的速度攀升，国际油价上涨带来的压力被上游的生产商顺势地转嫁到下游的消费者身上。卖方市场下，产业链的上端占据天然优势，很容易通过各种方式消化高价原料的压力。

Cut oil prices before，China's oil market apparent consumption rate of about 5% annually to climb，The international oil prices by the stress of the manufacturer of the upstream to downstream with passed on to consumers。The seller under the market，The industrial chain of natural advantages to occupy the top，Very easy in various ways to digest the pressure of high raw material。

　　2012年国际油价持续下行，成品油生产企业的成本压力被缓解，但由于下游终端的需求不振，上游成本压力的缓解并没有能够对相关企业起到利好，反而成为这些企业的负累，其突出表现是地方炼厂创下新低的开工率。7月地方炼厂的开工率创下三年内最低，仅30%左右。

The 2012 international oil prices continue to the downside，Oil production enterprise cost pressure was relieved，But because of the demand of the downstream terminal，Upstream pressure relief and no cost to the related to an enterprise to positive news，But become these enterprise of negative tired，Its outstanding performance is the place in the low of refinery starts。July starts a refinery where three years minimum，Only 30%。

　　这个数据说明，国际油价的下跌虽然降低国内成品油生产商的成本，但下游成品油销售量的低迷却抵消了这种利好，炼厂迫于下游需求减少的压力，不得不靠减少产量来度过危机。

The data show，The international oil prices although reduce domestic product oil producers of cost，But the downstream sales downturn of oil but offset this positive news，Refinery are under downstream demand reduced pressure，Have to rely on to reduce production to pull through。

　　与此同时，国内成品油中较高的赋税对炼厂又形成另一重压力。上周国家发改委的人士首度公开表示，中国的油价高于美国，并且特别说明所谓高的这部分在于两国油价含税值不同，强调高的这部分已收归国库。

At the same time，The higher of the domestic oil to refineries and other taxes formed a heavy pressure。Last week the national development and reform commission of the first time to the public who said，China's oil prices higher than the United States，And that the so-called special this part of high oil prices is the two countries value from the tax，High emphasis on this part of which has the state Treasury。

　　炼厂的日子不好过，习惯低买高卖的中间贸易商也很难在市场下行期间找到操作的机会，过去的几个月里，中间贸易商集中从中间的流通环节退出，现在的成品油市场由终端真实的需求主导，囤积获利的炒作行为大大减少。

The day of refinery is having a hard time，Used to buy low/sell high among the traders and it is hard to find in the market during the operation of the chance to downlink，The past few months，Concentrated among traders from the middle of circulation exit，Now the refined oil market by a terminal real demand leading，Hoarding profit greatly reduce hype behavior。

　　在与原油加工相关的化工领域，类似的一幕同样在上演，化工产业面临与成品油行业类似的情况。由于下游的生产企业对化工原料的需求减少，化工生产企业面临较大的经营压力，一些特定的行业已出现全行业性的亏损。

With crude oil in related field of chemical industry，A similar scene also is in town，Chemical industry is facing and refined products industry similar situation。Because of the lower reaches of production enterprise of chemical raw materials less demand，Chemical production enterprise with the great operating pressure，Some specific industry already appear all the losses of industry。

　　一个值得关注的现象是，化工产业的利润正在从上游的原料生产商、中游的贸易商向下游的实体企业转移，利润的再分配有利于产业链的健康发展。

A notable phenomenon is，Chemical industry profits are from the upstream of the raw material producers、The middle reaches of the trade to downstream of the entity enterprise transfer，The redistribution of profit is beneficial to the healthy development of the industry chain。

　　对于上游的生产企业，下游需求萎缩的现状显然并不能单靠企业自身改变，中国经济低迷的大趋势下，国内需求萎缩已经是不争的事实。成品油和化工产品的需求与经济的基本面密切相关，在经济环境没有明显变化时，下游消费需求很难恢复，企业必须调整经营策略，以应对可能出现的危机。

For the upstream of the production enterprise，The present situation of the downstream demand shrinking and can't apparently only by the enterprise itself change，The trend of China's economic downturn，Domestic demand has been shrinking is the fact that does not dispute。Oil and chemical products demand of the economic fundamentals are closely related，In the economic environment is not obviously changed，Downstream consumption demand is difficult to restore，Enterprise must adjust the business strategy，To cope with the possible crisis。

　　事实上，无论是成品油还是化工产业，在过去几十年内中国经济的快速发展中，都存在粗放式、过快发展的问题。炼厂和化工企业认为下游需求还将持续增长，为了抢占市场盲目扩张产能，没有预料到中国经济会在2012年放慢增长速度。

In fact，Whether oil or chemical industry，In the past few decades the rapid development of China's economy，Focus has、Too fast development。Refineries and chemical enterprise think downstream demand will continue to grow，In order to seizes the market blind expansion capacity，Did not expect the Chinese economy will slow growth in 2012。

　　当然，作为中国第二产业的重要组成部分，成品油产业链和化工产业链上的各个企业也不需要盲目悲观。当前中国经济虽然处于低迷期，但是依然保持了一定的增速，形势还没有恶劣到影响企业生存的地步。

Of course，As China's second industry's important component，Oil industry chain and chemical industry chain of each enterprise also need not blind pessimistic。China's current economic although in the downturn，But still maintained the certain growth，The situation is no bad effect to the point of enterprise's survival。

　　与此同时，相关企业也应当意识到，在产业的精细化发展上，中国与其他发达国家还存在较大的距离。市场低迷时恰恰也是产业升级换代的好时机，企业可以转危为机，从生产附加值低、科技含量低的低端产品转向生产高附加值、科技含量高的高端产品，实现企业自身的升级改造。

At the same time，Related enterprise should also be aware of that，In the industry in the development of the company，China and other developed countries are there is greater distance。Market downturns just also is a good time to industrial upgrading，Enterprise can turn the crisis into an opportunity for，Production from the low added value、Low content of science and technology of the low end of the products to the production of high added value、High scientific and technological content of the high-end products，Realize the enterprise itself upgraded。

　　国家发改委的人士说，成品油价格改革方案需要在一个合适的时机推出。这句话可以分两个方面看，一方面说明相关政府主管部门已经充分意识到旧定价机制的弊端；另一方面短期内新的成品油定价机制不会推出。

The national development and reform commission have said，Product prices reform plan requires the right time to launch。This sentence can be divided into two aspects to see，On the one hand that related government departments have fully aware of the old pricing mechanism drawbacks；On the other hand the short term new product oil pricing mechanism will not release。

　　政策层面暂时不会对行业的发展施加外力，但是如果考虑到国内原油结算根据国际油价定，滞后一个月左右时间，三季度推出定价机制的可能性就比较大。企业应当未雨绸缪，想方设法应对可能出现的各种变化，比如提高产品的附加值，以求从价格战中解脱出来。

Policy aspect of the development of the industry temporarily not exert external forces，But if you consider that domestic oil settlement according to international oil prices set，A month or so lag time，Three quarters of the possibility of launch pricing mechanism is greater。Enterprise shall prepare for a rainy day，Trying to cope with the possible all kinds of changes，Such as improved added value of products，To extricate from the price war。