2012年上半年国际金融形势评论 In the first half of 2012 international financial situation comments

　　利率市场化已成为当前的中国众望所向，但是，利率市场化将导致社会财富分配格局的重大改变，对此，社会各界必须有所准备。我国目前利率管制的真正受益方是资金使用人，是各类工商企业和社会的基础建设项目。政府通过存款利率上限管制保证了企业和社会基建项目较低的融资成本。而如果放开利率管制，受益的将是存款人，受损的是用款企业。受益方和受损方互换，将导致整个社会财富分配格局的改变

Interest rate marketization of current Chinese has become capable of the currency，but，Interest rate marketization will lead to social wealth distribution pattern of the big change，this，The social from all walks of life must prepare for that。Our country at present interest rate control real benefited party is capital user，All kinds of industry and commerce is the foundation of the enterprise and society construction project。The government through the ceiling on deposit interest rates control ensures the enterprise and social infrastructure project financing costs low。And if let go of interest rate control，The benefit is the depositor，The losers are the use of enterprise。Benefited party and the damaged party swaps，Will cause the entire social wealth distribution pattern of the change

　　中信银行(601998,股吧)副行长

Citic bank(601998,Shares it)Vice President

　　中国人民大学国际货币研究所联席所长

The people's university of China international monetary institute of joint

　　■ 曹彤

S CaoTong

　　中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员

The people's university of China international monetary institute researchers

　　国务院发展研究中心国际技术经济研究所助理研究员

The state council development research center international technology economic research institute, a research assistant

　　■ 曲双石

S song ShuangShi

　　美国金融形势评论

The United States financial situation comments

　　2012年上半年，美国经济的两个关键词是：高开低走、贸易保护。

In the first half of 2012，The U.S. economy is the two key words：highs、Trade protection。

　　一，年初美国经济呈加速好转迹象，但进入3月份后呈“高开低走”态势，尤其是就业数据持续下行。美联储虽一直观望，但若经济形势持续恶化，进一步宽松政策或将到来。

a，U.S. economy earlier signs better was accelerated，But after march into a“highs”situation，Especially the employment data continued to the downside。Although the fed has been on the fence，But if the economic situation continued to worsen，Further easing or will come。

　　美国非农就业数据是“高开低走”经济态势的最好诠释。美国劳工部数据显示，虽然今年1至5月美国失业率基本呈下降趋势——由8.5%降至8.2%，但月度非农就业环比增量却由27.5万一路降至6.9万，而美国需月均创造12.5万个就业机会才可维持失业率稳定。

The United States is non-farm payrolls“highs”The best annotation of the economic situation。The U.S. labor department figures show，Although this year 1 to 5 month U.S. unemployment rate declined by basic-8.5% to 8.2%，But monthly non-agricultural employment annulus comparing incremental but all the way down to 69000 by 275000，And the United States need to the average monthly create 125000 jobs to keep the unemployment rate stability。

　　此外，占美国GDP70%的消费方面，其数据表现也渐趋疲软。美国商务部数据显示，今年1至5月美国零售额与核心零售额环比与同比增速均大幅下降，其中零售额环比增速由一季度的0.6%~1.0%区间骤降至-0.2%，核心零售额环比增速由一季度的0.8%~1.1%区间骤降至-0.4%，均由正转负；零售额同比增速由一季度的6.3%~6.6%区间降至5.3%，核心零售额同比增速由一季度的6.4%降至4.3%，均下降明显。美国经济咨商局数据显示，今年1至5月，美国消费者信心指数在2月份达到71.6的顶点后一路走低至64.9，而消费者预期指数也由2月份88.4的高点一路走低至77.6，表明美国消费者信心不足。

In addition，Of the United States GDP70 % of consumer spending，The data show a weak gradually。The us department of commerce data shows，January to may American retail sales and core retail sales year-on-year growth annulus comparing and are down significantly，Retail sales growth in the first quarter of annulus of by 0.6% ~ 1.0% to-0.2% range plummeting，Core retail sales growth in the first quarter by 0.8% month-on-month ~ 1.1% to-0.4% range plummeting，All by are turning negative；Year-on-year growth in the first quarter of the retail sales by 6.3% ~ 6.6% interval reduced from 5.3% to，Year-on-year growth in the first quarter by core retail sales of 6.4% to 4.3%，Decreased obviously。The United States economic counselor department figures，January to may，U.S. consumer confidence index in February the vertices of the 71.6 to 64.9 after dropping，And consumer expectations index of 88.4 in February from high have weakened to 77.6，That the United States is consumer confidence。

　　宏观经济数据中惟有房地产数据可提供些许安慰。美国商务部数据显示，新屋销量从去年9月份开始一直呈上升趋势，今年1至4月份美国月度季调并年化后的新屋销量在33.2万幢至35.8万幢之间，同比增速最高达11.4%。房屋销售价格从去年11月份开始上行，新屋售价中位值2月份后一直位于23.5万美元左右，好于2011年的22.72万美元；而新屋销售均价在3月份后一直在28万美元之上，也远好于2011年的26.79万美元。新屋开建与营建许可数量虽偶有下跌，但基本呈上升趋势。其中季调后新屋开建数量上半年基本稳定在70万幢之上，最高达74.4万幢，与去年基本维持在50万幢至65万幢之间相比，已有较为明显的变化；而季调后营建许可数量去年11月开始则基本稳定在70万幢之上，最高达78万幢，相较去年10月之前基本维持在50万幢至65万幢之间的情况，也有较大提升。过去6年，疲弱的楼市严重拖累了美国经济发展，而今后美国经济的真正复苏，也将以楼市的复苏为先兆。对下一步美国楼市的走向，应给予高度关注。

Macro economic data, but the real estate data may provide some comfort。The us department of commerce data shows，The new house is from starting in September last year sales have been rising，This year in the April 1 to monthly season of adjustable and years after new house to sales in 332000 to 358000 between house building，The highest year-on-year growth of 11.4%。Housing sales price goes up from last November，The new house is the price of a value has been in February in around $235000，Good to $2011 in 227200；And sales of new homes in average after march has been over us $280000，Also far better than $2011 in 267900。The new house is built and construction license number open though I have fall，But the basic, are on the rise。Which season after the new homes built in the first half of a number of basic stability in the above 700000 buildings，The highest building in 744000，And the basic maintain 500000 buildings in the last year to 650000 buildings than between，For more significant changes；And the construction license number after the season last year November 700000 buildings in the basic stability above，The highest building in 780000，Compared with October last year before 500000 buildings in basic maintain to 650000 between the house，There is also a greater ascension。The past six years，Serious weakness in the housing market was a drag on the U.S. economy，In the American economy and the real recovery，Also will be the housing market recovery for aura。On the next step of the direction of the us housing market，Attention should be given。

　　除经济形势“高开低走”之外，影响美国下一步宏观经济决策的主要变量还有：一是11月美国将迎来总统大选，自上世纪30年代罗斯福总统以来，还没有美国总统能在失业率达7.2%以上的情况下赢得竞选连任；二是欧债危机一再反复，5月份以来再次陷入崩溃边缘，已成为所有国家面临的最严峻的系统性风险；三是年底“财政悬崖”将近，包括诸多减税措施即将于年底到期、明年开始联邦项目将自动进行总规模为1.2万亿美元的削减、美国可能在年底前再次触及举债上限等；四是美国目前通胀风险较低，4月份季调后CPI环比零增长，5月份更是环比下跌0.3%，近12个月未经季调CPI仅增长1.7%。

In addition to economic situation“highs”outside，The macro economic decisions affect next the main variables and：One is the November presidential election in the United States，Since the 1930 s since President Roosevelt，Has not the President of the United States in the jobless rate of 7.2% above can won re-election；2 it is Europe debt crisis have once again，Since in May was again the brink of collapse，All countries face has become the most serious systemic risk；Three is the end of the year“Fiscal cliff”nearly，Include many tax cuts will expire at the end of the year、The next year to start the federal program will automatically the total size of $1.2 trillion cut、The United States may be in touch again before the end of debt limit；Four is the current low inflation risk，April CPI annulus comparing the season after zero growth，May is annulus comparing fell 0.3%，Nearly 12 months without the CPI rose by only 1.7% season。

　　基于此，美国有理由和条件在下半年推出更为激进的宏观经济措施，而鉴于财政政策的空间有限，进一步量化宽松货币政策（QE3）将成为主要选项。

Based on this，The United States has reason and conditions in the second half of the launch more radical macroeconomic measures，And in view of the limited space of fiscal policy，Further quantitative loose monetary policy（QE3）Will become major options。

　　二，贸易数据表现不佳加之正逢大选年，美国贸易保护主义情绪飙升，贸易保护主义举措层出不穷。

two，Trade data and poor performance when the election year，The American trade protectionism sentiment has soared，Trade protectionism measures are endless。

　　美国商务部数据显示，自去年11月份开始美国贸易赤字再呈上升态势，今年3月达到15.81%的环比增速，为去年1月以来最高。对华贸易赤字虽自去年11月以来呈下降态势，但降幅有限，且平均水平显著高于去年同期，并远高于美国对其他国家贸易赤字水平。此种情况极大地激发了美国的贸易保护主义情绪，其不断挥舞“贸易大棒”，尤其将中国作为贸易战假想敌，半年来针对中国的贸易制裁极其频繁，造成中美之间在太阳能光伏、稀土等许多领域皆有纠葛，甚至有时一天之中就有不止一项制裁措施出台，并采取行政和立法双重措施强化其实施贸易保护主义的能力。

The us department of commerce data shows，Since last November the us trade deficit is on the rise again，In march this year 15.81% month-on-month growth，For the highest since January of last year。Though the trade deficit with China since November trend of decline，But limited by，And significantly higher than the average level in the same period last year，And much higher than the us trade deficit level to other countries。This greatly inspired American protectionist mood，The growing waved“Trade stick”，Especially as China trade war the putative foe，Half a year for Chinese trade sanctions very often，Cause in solar energy between China and the United States、Rare earth and many other areas are have trouble，And sometimes even a day more than a sanctions introduced measures，And take administrative and legislative double measures strengthening the protectionist ability。

　　一是行政手段上，2月28日，奥巴马签署命令，在美国贸易代表办公室设立跨部门贸易执法中心，协调与美国贸易权利、国内贸易法律等有关的执法事宜，强化美国在推行市场开放方面的能力，为美国企业创造“平等”竞争环境，保障在国际贸易规则下美国贸易权利的实施和国内贸易法律的执行。

One is the administrative means，February 28,，Obama signed an order，In the United States trade representative office established trade across the department of law enforcement center，Coordinate with the American trade rights、Domestic trade law and other relevant law enforcement issues，Strengthening the United States with the implementation of market opening skills，For the enterprise to create“equality”Competitive environment，Security in international trade rules under the American trade rights of the implementation of the law enforcement and the domestic trade。

　　二是法律措施上，3月初，美国国会通过一项修订《1930年关税法》的法案，以便对中国和越南等所谓“非市场经济国家”征收反补贴税。该法案涉及20余种商品，涵盖了从中国进口的钢、铝、纸、化工原料及从越南进口的塑料购物袋等。

2 it is legal measures，In early march，The United States congress passed a revised《1930 this year tax law》bill，So as to so-called such as China and Vietnam“Non-market economies”Collecting countervailing duties。The bill involves more than 20 kinds of goods，Covers the steel imports from China、aluminum、paper、Chemical raw materials and from the plastic shopping bags imported Vietnam etc。

　　当前全球经济疲软，各国皆需增加出口以突破国内经济发展瓶颈从而推动经济复苏，贸易摩擦在所难免。尤其美国临近大选，奥巴马需借助贸易保护主义以展现对华强硬一面，聚攒人气，因此，对于当前美国兴起的贸易保护主义情绪，我们应冷静对待。

The current global economic weakness，All countries should be increased exports to break through the bottleneck and promote the economic development in the economic recovery，Trade friction is inevitable。Especially the United States near the general election，Obama should be using trade protectionism in order to show China tough side，Gathered popularity saving，so，For the current U.S. rise protectionist mood，We should treat calm。

　　但是，作为长期的国际贸易政策，美国必须重新认识中美贸易关系。首先是历史视角。近10年来，美国对华出口增长468%，中国已成为美国增长最快的出口市场。金融危机以来，中国采取积极措施扩大进口，尤其是扩大自美国进口。2006年至2011年，中国政府每年派出的投资贸易促进团累计从美采购金额超过1000亿美元。2011年，中国贸易顺差从金融危机前的3000多亿美元降至1500亿美元，贸易顺差占国内生产总值的比重从7%以上降至2%，处于国际公认的合理区间。

but，As a long-term international trade policy，The United States must to know sino-us trade relationship。First is the historical perspective。Nearly 10 years，Us exports increased 468%，China has become the fastest growing export market。Since the financial crisis，The Chinese to take active measures to increase imports，Especially since the United States expand imports。From 2006 to 2011，The Chinese government sent every year of investment and trade promotion group from the cumulative purchase of more than us $100 billion。2011 years，China's trade surplus from the financial crisis of more than $3000 before down to $150 billion m，The trade surplus of Beijing's GDP from 7% to 2%，In international recognized reasonable interval。

　　解决中美贸易不平衡很重要的方面是美国自身经济政策和结构的调整，包括取消对华出口的种种限制，特别是尽早放宽对华民用高技术产品出口管制。这既有利于平衡中美贸易、促进美国经济增长和就业增加，也有利于改善美国国际收支结构；其次是技术视角。如WTO所说，在生产全球化时代，现行的国际贸易统计方法已过时且存在漏洞，导致美中贸易逆差被夸大。现行贸易统计方法只适用于出口产品完全产自同一个国家的状况，不能真实反映跨国贸易迅速发展的现实。

Solve the trade balance is very important aspect is the United States itself economic policies and structural adjustment，Including the elimination of the various restrictions exports，Especially affect China as early as possible civil high-tech products export controls。This is not only beneficial to the trade balance、Promote the economic growth and increase in employment，The United States also helps improve the structure of international payments；Next is the technology perspective。Like the WTO said，In the production of the era of globalization，The present international trade statistics method has been out of date and there is a loophole，Lead to the U.S. trade deficit with China is exaggerated。The current trade statistics method applies only to export products produced in the same country completely situation，Can't really reflect the international trade of the rapid development of the reality。

　　欧洲金融形势评论 The European financial situation comments

　　2012年上半年，欧洲经济的三个关键词是：经济萎靡、希腊、西班牙。

In the first half of 2012，The European economy is three key words：recession、Greece、Spain。

　　一，受欧债危机拖累，上半年欧洲经济极度萎靡，各项关键经济指标始终处于下行轨道，而LTRO（长期再融资计划）效果仍有待观察。

a，By the debt crisis drag，European economic extremely weak in the first half，The key economic indicators has always been a downside orbit，And LTRO（Long-term financing plan again）Effect remains to be seen。

　　今年一季度，欧元区GDP环比零增长，同比萎缩0.1%；欧盟GDP环比零增长，同比仅增长0.1%。与前几个季度相比，同比增速显著下降。而欧盟委员会预计今年欧元区经济将萎缩0.3%，欧盟经济将为零增长。

In the first quarter of this year，Eurozone GDP annulus comparing zero growth，Shrinking by 0.1% year-on-year；The eu GDP annulus comparing zero growth，Only 0.1% year-on-year growth。Compared with previous quarters，Year-on-year growth down significantly。The eu commission is expected the eurozone economy will shrink by 0.3%，The eu economy to be zero growth。

　　就业方面，欧元区与欧盟4月份失业率分别达11%与10.3%。其中最严重者如西班牙4月份失业率飙升至24.3%，青年失业率更是高达51.5%，即25岁以下年轻人中超过一半没有工作。“欧债危机五国”中，其他四国4月份最低失业率也达到了10.2%。

employment，The euro zone and the European Union in April respectively 11% and 10.3% unemployment rate。One of the most serious in April as Spain unemployment rises from 24.3% to，Youth unemployment rate is as high as 51.5%，That is 25 years old the following more than half the young people don't have a job。“The debt crisis five countries”in，The other four the lowest unemployment rate in April was 10.2%。

　　采购经理人指数方面，欧元区的综合PMI、制造业PMI与服务业PMI均一路下泄。除1月份外，所有指数均处于50的荣枯分界线以下。其中5月份欧元区综合PMI降至45.9，创近3年新低；制造业PMI降至45，创35个月新低；服务业PMI降至46.5，创7个月新低。PMI指数表明欧元区经济一直处于萎缩状态。更糟糕的是，德、法两大欧元区领头羊国家同样处于下行状态，其中德国5月份综合PMI降至49.6，为6个月来最低；制造业PMI降至45.0，创近3年新低。

The purchasing managers' index，The euro zone's comprehensive PMI、Manufacturing PMI and services PMI are the release of all the way。In addition to the January，All were in the index of 50 RongKu dividing line between the following。In may the euro zone of comprehensive PMI fell to 45.9，And nearly 3 years to new lows；Manufacturing PMI fell to 45，Gen 35 months low；Services PMI fell to 46.5，And seven months low。PMI index showed that the eurozone economy has been shrinking in the state。worse，DE、Method two big eurozone leaders countries in the same downward state，In may of Germany comprehensive PMI fell to 49.6，For six months to a minimum；Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.0，And nearly 3 years to new lows。

　　严峻的财政、经济形势加之不断飙高的失业率所带来的社会痛楚，使欧洲经济十分危急。面对此种形势，欧央行虽未再行降息，但分别于去年12月及今年2月29日连续进行两轮总规模达1万亿欧元的LTRO。两轮LTRO有助于稳定欧元区金融市场。但是，低迷的数据表明两轮LTRO的效果仍有待检验，早前关于“LTRO仅是解决银行流动性问题，难以刺激实体经济增长”的预言恐将成真。

Severe financial、The economic situation and the high unemployment surging constantly brought about by the social pain，To make European economy is very critical。Facing this situation，The ECB though not any interest rates，But in December last year respectively and February 29, the two rounds of continuous the total scale of 1 trillion euro LTRO。Two rounds LTRO help stabilize the eurozone financial markets。but，The data show that the two rounds of downturn LTRO effect remains to be inspection，Earlier on“LTRO is only solve bank liquidity problems，Hard to stimulate economic growth entity”Prophecy fears will come true。

　　二，希腊形势跌宕起伏，多次引发世界金融市场动荡。

two，Greece situation ups and downs all around，By many times the world financial market turbulence。

　　上半年，希腊政经形势犹如坐过山车般跌宕起伏。2月份，总额达1300亿欧元但附带严格紧缩措施的救助协议在欧元区国家财长会议上达成一致及3月初“债务置换计划”成功，曾使欧债危机一度偃旗息鼓。然而，5月希腊大选中反对紧缩措施的左翼政党势力大增，造成各政党无法完成组阁任务，希腊退出欧元区可能性飙升。直至6月17日二次大选中，支持财政紧缩的新民主党在选举中以微弱优势获胜，才使沸腾的欧债危机形势暂时冷却下来。

In the first half，The Greek political situation is like a roller coaster ups and downs。February，A total of 130 billion euros but with strict austerity measures in the euro zone countries aid agreement reached an agreement and finance ministers' meeting in early march“Debt replacement plan”success，Once made the European debt crisis dampen once。however，May the Greek election against austerity measures left party power surges，Cause political parties can not complete its tasks，The Greek exit the eurozone soaring possibility。On June 17, until the second election，Fiscal tightening of new democratic support in the election won by a nose，That makes the European debt crisis situation of boiling temporarily cooling down。

　　5月的政治动荡使希腊与欧元区突破了“不能退出欧元区”的底线，“退出欧元区”已成为双方在危机时刻都会评估的可能选项之一。政治不确定性的继续存在，使得未来希腊退出欧元区的可能性仍不容小觑。

Five months of political unrest Greece and the euro zone to break through“Can't quit the euro zone”Bottom line，“Out of the euro zone”Both sides in the crisis has become one of the options will assess possible。The continued presence of political uncertainty，Make out the possibility of future Greece the eurozone is still not underestimate。

　　一旦希腊选择退出欧元区，将给世界金融市场带来极大震荡。对于希腊，其退出的总成本预计将达5000万亿至1万亿欧元之间，希腊通胀率预计飙升30%至50%，新货币预计将立即贬值60%，银行系统将承受极大流动性压力。自2009年希腊债务危机爆发后，该国一直存在较严重的存款外逃现象。过去两年中，希腊本地银行存款流失速度平均在每月16~24亿欧元左右，并在今年1月创下53亿欧元的纪录，5月14日与6月11日则分别出现当日提取7亿欧元存款的新现象。

Once the Greek select exit the euro zone，Will the world financial market to bring about a great shock。For the Greek，The total cost of the exit is estimated at 5 quadrillion to 1 trillion, between euro，Greece is expected to surge 30% inflation to 50%，The new currency is expected to be worth 60% immediately，The banking system will bear great liquidity pressure。Since 2009 the Greek debt crisis after the outbreak，The country has been there are serious deposit flight phenomenon。In the past two years，The Greek local bank deposit loss in monthly average speed 16 to around 2.4 billion euros，And in January of this year a record 5.3 billion euros ($)，On 14 May and June 11, appear respectively on that day 700 million euros of new extraction deposit phenomenon。

　　对欧元区来说，首先将产生连锁效应。“受惊”的资本将流出欧元区边缘国家甚至流出欧元区，西班牙、意大利等问题国家可能因失去投资者信任而面临国债收益率飙升，财政状况恶化；其次将造成巨大经济损失。IMF和欧盟曾先后两轮向希腊提供资金援助，欧央行还购买了大量希腊国债。若希腊放弃欧元，据估计欧元区损失累计约为1600亿欧元，其中德国损失将在700亿到800亿欧元之间；第三，将引发经济衰退。若希腊无力偿还债务，欧元区银行为求生存，可能大幅限制贷款发放，企业投资也会减速。而欧洲民众可能因担心失业或紧缩措施而减少消费开支，将导致欧盟内部需求崩溃，欧元区经济陷入衰退。

For the eurozone is，First will have a ripple effect。“frightened”Capital outflow the eurozone countries will edge out even the euro zone，Spain、Italy and other problems countries could lose investors trust and face Treasury yields surged，Fiscal deterioration in；Next will cause huge economic losses。The IMF and the European Union has been held two rounds to provide financial assistance to Greece，The central bank also buy a lot of Greek debt。If Greece to give up the euro，According to estimates that the euro zone accumulative total loss of around 160 billion euros，Among them will be in 70 billion to German losses between 80 billion euro；The third，Will trigger a recession。If Greece insolvency，The eurozone Banks for survival，Could drastically restricting loans，Enterprise investment can slow down。But the europeans may be worried about losing their jobs or tightening measures to reduce and consumer spending，Will lead to the European Union internal demand collapse，The eurozone economy into a recession。

　　三，西班牙状况危急，成为欧债危机新的风暴中心。

three，Spain condition critical，As the debt crisis new storm center。

　　作为欧元区第四大经济体，西班牙状况危急，仅上半年就被三大评级机构6次下调主权信用评级，目前陷入“三连环恶性循环”：

As the euro zone's fourth-largest economy，Spain condition critical，In the first half was only three rating agencies 6 times cut sovereign credit rating，In a moment“Three serial vicious circle”：

　　一，经济面临低增长、高失业困境。欧盟统计局数据显示，今年一季度西班牙经济环比萎缩0.3%，同比萎缩0.4%，欧盟委员会预计其今年将萎缩1.8%。截至4月份其失业率高达24.3%，青年失业率更是飙升至51.5%，冠绝欧洲。

a，Economy is facing low growth、High unemployment dilemma。The European Union statistics bureau data show，In the first quarter of this year 0.3% month-on-month Spanish economy shrinking，Shrinking by 0.4% year-on-year，The European commission is expected to shrink 1.8% this year, its will。In April by the 24.3% unemployment rate，Youth unemployment rate soared to 51.5% more，Champions league away Europe。

　　二，中央及地方政府均面临财政困境。2011年西班牙财政赤字占GDP8.5%，远超6%的原定目标，公共债务占GDP之比今年预计将升至80%；借贷成本持续上升，10年期国债收益率一度突破7%的心理关口，达到7.3%的欧元区面世以来最高值，同时国债CDS也创下历史最高纪录。此外，2011年西班牙地方政府财政赤字占GDP2.9%，若要完成2012年降至1.5%的目标，困难重重。经济规模占西班牙1/5的加泰罗尼亚自治区已请求西班牙政府对该地区进行融资救助。该地区今年有超过130亿欧元债务需要偿还。过去两年，加泰罗尼亚地区发行了利率为4.5%至5%的爱国者债券，该地区民众近1/4的存款都已购买此类债券，购买能力已达极限。

two，The central and local governments are facing financial difficulties。2011 years of Spanish fiscal deficit GDP8.5 %，Far more than 6% of the original target，The ratio of public debt to GDP is expected to rise to 80% this year；Borrowing costs continue to rise，The 10-year Treasury yield of 7% once breakthrough psychologically，7.3% of the euro zone since were high，And Treasury bonds and CDS to a record high。In addition，Spain, in 2011 the local government budget deficit of GDP2.9 %，If you want to complete the 2012 drop to 1.5% target，difficult。Economic scale of Spain 1/5 of the autonomous region of Catalonia has requested the Spanish government to this region financing assistance。This year in the region have more than 13 billion euros to repay the debt。In the past two years，The Catalan area released interest rate is 4.5% to 5% of the patriot bonds，The people in region has nearly a quarter of the deposits to buy such bonds，Buy ability has reached the limit。

　　三，银行业危机深重。西班牙央行数据显示，1995年至2000年，西班牙房价上涨38%，2002年至2008年价格最高曾经翻倍，但2008年至今房价已下跌21.5%。受房地产泡沫破裂影响，西班牙银行坏账严重，上半年已有多家银行被三大评级机构降级。数据显示，4月份该国银行业坏账率达8.72%，创1994年4月以来最高水平；该国各大银行有1840亿欧元不动产开发商贷款和资产存在问题；4月份西班牙银行业零售和企业存款减少314.4亿欧元，至1.624万亿欧元，创欧元区债务危机爆发以来新低。西班牙问题银行中，以第四大银行Bankia最为严重，西班牙政府为其已付出235亿欧元，为其历史上对银行业进行的最大规模援助。此外，西班牙银行业持有较高比例的西班牙政府国债，国家主权风险集中。据估计，今年4月西班牙银行共持有1460亿欧元西班牙政府债券，约占西班牙国债总量的30%，与一年前13%的比例相比大幅上升。

three，Banking crisis alot。Spain central bank data shows，From 1995 to 2000，Spain house prices rose 38%，From 2002 to 2008 the highest prices have doubled，But since 2008, house prices have fallen 21.5%。By a real estate bubble effect，The Spanish Banks seriously bad loans，In the first half for many Banks was three rating agencies relegation。Data shows，In April the country's banking bad debt rate is 8.72%，Since April 1994 and the highest level；The country's major Banks to a 184 billion euro real estate developers loans and asset has problems；In April the Spanish banking and retail and enterprise deposits to reduce 31.44 billion euros，To 1.624 trillion euros，And the eurozone debt crisis since the outbreak of the low。Spain problem in the bank，In fourth big bank Bankia most serious，The Spanish government for its already pay 23.5 billion euros，For its history of banking industry the most massive aid。In addition，The Spanish banking hold higher percentages of Spanish government debt，National sovereignty on risk。An estimated，In April of 146 billion euros Spanish bank holding the Spanish government bonds，Spain accounts for about 30% of the total national debt，And the proportion of 13% compared with a year ago to rise sharply。

　　面对岌岌可危的形势，西班牙政府终于被迫于6月9日宣布，正式向欧盟申请援助，援助金额为1000亿欧元，资金将来自EFSF（欧洲金融稳定基金）与ESM（欧洲稳定机构）。西班牙银行有序重组基金（FROB）是惟一有权直接接受援助资金的机构，西班牙银行将通过该机构获取资金。自2010年以来，欧盟已对希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙进行了总计3860亿欧元的救助，西班牙正式成为欧元区第4个寻求外部援助的成员国。

Facing the situation is at stake，The Spanish government finally forced to announced on June 9，The eu formally to applying for aid，Aid for the amount of 100 billion euros，Money will come from the EFSF（The European financial stability fund）ESM and（European stability institutions）。The Spanish bank orderly restructuring fund（FROB）Is the only thing that has the right to directly to aid money institution，The Spanish Banks will through the agencies to obtain funds。Since 2010，The European Union has to Greece、Ireland and Portugal totaling 386 billion euros in aid，Spain became the eurozone fourth for external help members。

　　日本金融形势评论 Japan's financial situation comments

　　2012年上半年，日本经济的三个关键词是：经济复苏、日元汇率、债务。

In the first half of 2012，Japan's economy is three key words：Economic recovery、The yen、debt。

　　一，日本经济继续回暖，但面临两大风险。

a，Japan's economy continued to thaw，But faces two big risk。

　　日本内阁府数据显示，扣除物价变动因素后一季度日本GDP环比增长1%，按年率计算增长4.7%，高于市场预期中值3.5%，也远高于前值0.7%，为连续第3个季度实现正增长。公共投资已经出现上升。商业固定投资已经处于温和上升趋势，市场情绪出现改善。在消费信心改善之下，私营部门消费已经温和上升，归因于刺激汽车需求的努力。住房投资正在加速。缘于内外需求发展，产出已经显示出一些提速迹象。

Japan cabinet office figures show，Deduct price changes after Japan's GDP quarter factors month-on-month growth of 1%，At an annualised rate increase of 4.7%，Higher than the market expected median 3.5%，Also far higher than the previous value by 0.7%，For the third straight quarter of positive growth。Public investment has been rising。Business fixed investment has been in a mild a rising trend，The market appear to improve mood。In the improvement of consumer confidence，The private sector consumption has rise modestly，To stimulate demand to the car。Housing investment is accelerating。Due to internal and external demand development，Output has shown some signs speed。

　　此外，日本出口也表现抢眼。一季度日本商品和服务出口增长2.9%，拉动GDP增长0.4个百分点，进口则增长1.9%。整体而言，净出口对当季GDP增长率贡献0.1个百分点。相较而言，去年四季度净出口拖累GDP0.7个百分点。

In addition，Japan exports also showed up。Quarter Japanese goods and services that we export growth of 2.9%，Pull GDP growth of 0.4%，Imports increased 1.9%。overall，When net exports to GDP growth 0.1% contribution。compared，Last year the fourth quarter net exports GDP0.7 down。

　　但同时日本经济还面临两大系统性风险：

But at the same time the Japanese economy still faces two big systemic risk：

　　一是国内能源短缺。核能在日本能源政策中占据重要地位，2010年核电站为日本提供了26.4%的电力。在5月日本54座核反应堆全部停运后不久，6月中旬日本政府不顾诸多批评，宣布重启关西电力公司大饭核电站3号和4号机组，以缓解能源紧张。但由于日本国会仍在审议设置“原子能管理委员会”的法案，加之民众的强烈反对，其他核电站何时重启仍是未知数。

One is the domestic energy shortages。Nuclear energy policy in Japan occupy the important position，2010 years for Japan's nuclear power plants provide 26.4% of the electric power。In may the Japanese 54 nuclear reactors suspended all soon after，The middle of June despite many Japanese government criticism，Restart the kansai electric power company announced big rice nuclear power station 3 and 4 units，In order to relieve the energy nervous。But because of the Japanese parliament is still in the deliberation Settings“Atomic energy management committee”bill，Together with the people of strong opposition，Other nuclear power plants to restart when are unknown。

　　二是欧债危机。近期欧债危机恶化成为日本经济面临的最大下行风险因素，避险资金再度将日元作为避风港，使得日元经过一段蛰伏期后再度出现升值态势。美元兑日元汇率持续突破80关口，将严重损害企业盈利，野田佳彦甚至表示不排除未来不顾美国反对采取单边行动抑制日元升值的可能性。

2 it is the debt crisis。Recent European debt crisis worse as Japan's economy is facing the biggest downside risk factors，Hedge funds will once again as the yen refuge，Make the yen after a dormant period again after appreciation posture。The dollar exchange rate continues to break through 80 pass，Will seriously damage enterprise profit，Wild tian mitsuka even says it will not rule out regardless of the United States against future take unilateral action inhibit the possibility of a stronger yen。

　　此外，日本保持购置税优惠政策将在今年8月份到期，对下半年经济表现将产生负面影响。同时，由于目前日本国内失业率保持在较高水平而工资却基本不变，消费者很难大幅扩大消费支出。

In addition，Japan purchase preferential policy will keep in August this year expires，The second half of economic performance will produce negative influence。At the same time，Because the present Japan national unemployment remain at high levels and wages but basic unchanged，Consumer is hard to dramatically widen consumer spending。

　　二，日元汇率频居高位严重威胁日本经济。

two，The yen in the high frequency a serious threat to the Japanese economy。

　　2007年8月以来，日元对美元升幅已超30%，在所有发达国家货币中居首，远高于第二名瑞士法郎的25%。去年9月瑞士央行出台本币汇率上限措施，更使日本成为惟一避风港。目前，出口占日本GDP的比例大约为15%，远超1995年的9%，意味着目前日元升值对该国经济竞争力的负面冲击要比17年前更为严重。高盛数据显示，美元兑日元汇价每下跌1日元，日本各大出口企业就会损失3%左右的利润。

Since August 2007，The yen against the dollar has over 30% increase，In all developed countries registered the money，Far higher than the second 25% of Swiss francs。Last September the Swiss central bank on local currency exchange rate limit measures，More make Japan to become the only refuge。At present，Japan exports as a share of GDP is about 15%，Far more than 9% in 1995，Means that at present the Japanese yen appreciation to the country's economy competitive negative impact is more serious than 17 years ago。Goldman sachs data shows，The dollar exchange rate every fall 1 yen，Japan each big export enterprise would lose about 3% of the profits。

　　今年3月日元曾短暂摆脱升值阴影，原因有三：一是日本央行于2月14日意外宣布扩大量化宽松规模10万亿日元至65万亿日元，同时明确了短期通胀目标1%和中长期通胀目标2%，表明其志在扭转该国长期通缩及预期，打开了未来进一步扩大量化宽松规模的猜想空间；二是日元汇率一向与全球经济走势相反。当时全球经济形势有所好转，美国经济复苏势头喜人，欧债危机渐趋平稳，市场购买日元的避险需求降低，令日元升值缺乏支撑；三是2011年日本贸易赤字巨大，今年1月份贸易赤字达1.475万亿日元的历史新高，不支持日元再度走强。

In march this year the yen briefly get rid of appreciation of the shadow，For three reasons：One is the bank of Japan on February 14, expand the scale of quantitative loose accident announced 10 trillion yen to 65 trillion yen，At the same time the short-term inflation target of 1% clear and long-term inflation target of 2%，Show that the country's long-term aims to reverse deflation and expectations，Open the future further expand the scale of quantitative loose that space；2 it is the yen has always been and the global economic trends instead。When the global economic situation better，The United States economic recovery momentum gratifying，The debt crisis smooth gradually，The market to buy yen lower hedging purposes，The Japanese yen appreciation for lack of support；Three is to Japan in 2011, huge trade deficit，In January this year the trade deficit of 1.475 trillion yen a record high，Do not support a stronger yen again。

　　然而，5月后日元兑美元再次突破80关口，原因如下：首先，欧债危机再度恶化使日元又一次担任了避风港职责；其次，投资者已认识到，日本央行一而再再而三地干预日元汇率的做法，其效果或许不会长久。5月初日本央行曾一度扬言要再度干预汇率，但在5月23日的政策会议上却未就此作出任何表示，日元汇率也因而在此后出现急升。

however，In may the yen against the U.S. dollar once again break 80 pass，Reasons are as follows：first，The debt crisis worse again and the yen as a refuge duties；second，Investors have to recognize，The bank of Japan again again 3 to the practice of the yen intervention，Its effect may not last long。The bank of Japan's early may once again threatened intervention in the exchange rate，But in the May 23, but not the policy meeting this make any said，The yen also so in since then appear surge。

　　但是，除非美元兑日元逼近1:76大关，否则相信日本央行暂时不会出手，原因有三：一是目前经济尚处温和复苏阶段，央行暂时没有出手必要；二是日本企业早已做好日元升值准备，安排了针对日元升值的对冲操作，对其而言日元马上贬值的好处或许还不如从政府补贴中获得的利益多，而政府采取汇市干预举措在政治上也不会有太大收获；三是日本政府已清楚地意识到，单枪匹马入市干预、在资金汹涌流入日元之际只能是杯水车薪；四是欧洲市场仍存巨大不确定性，目前不宜介入。

but，Unless the dollar against the yen and approximation 6 mark，Otherwise believe that the bank of Japan temporarily won't make moves，For three reasons：One is the economy is still place moderate recovery stage，The central bank temporarily offered no necessary；2 it is Japanese enterprise already do the Japanese yen appreciation to prepare，In the Japanese yen appreciation for the hedge operation，The yen in the value of the benefits may immediately as the government subsidies from the interests of gain，And the government intervention in the currency markets to move political also won't have too big gains；3 it is the Japanese government has clearly realized，On entering the market intervention、In the capital flows into the yen surges is only scratch the surface；Four is the European market is still confronted with great uncertainty，Now it is involved in。

　　三，日本政府企图通过提高消费税率缓解财政困境，引发政局不稳，执政党内部面临分裂。

three，The Japanese government attempts to raise consumption tax relief through financial trouble，Cause unstable politically，The ruling party faces internal division。

　　截至2011年，日本财政赤字已占GDP的10.1%，惠誉预计日本政府总负债率至2012年底将达GDP的239%，远超希腊赤字占GDP9%、总负债率达165%的水平。5月22日，惠誉将日本主权信用评级由“AA-”下调至A+，前景为负面。

By the end of 2011，Japan's fiscal deficit already accounts for 10.1% of GDP，Fitch ratings Japanese government debt is expected to total by the end of 2012 will amount to 239% of GDP，Far beyond the Greek deficit of GDP9 %、Up to 165% of the total debt level。May 22，Fitch ratings will Japanese sovereignty by credit rating“AA-”Down to A +，Prospects for negative。

　　日本财政赤字飙升原因有三，一是财税收入不足；二是社会老龄化速度过快，社会福利支出不断膨胀；三是上世纪90年代泡沫经济崩溃后，日本一直陷入经济不景气和通货紧缩的恶性循环中，政府为刺激经济积累了高额债务。但由于日本债务主要购买方为日本金融机构和国民，外国购买比重只占8.3%，且其与希腊相比有自有货币、独立的货币政策、相对强势的经济及巨额的海外资产，因此短期内爆发债务危机的可能性微乎其微。但若这种状况不能得到改变，始终保持寅吃卯粮的状态，未来危机爆发的可能性不可避免。

Japan's fiscal deficit soared for three reasons，One is the financial income insufficient；2 it is social aging too fast，Social welfare spending rising inflation；3 it is the 1990 s bubble economy after the collapse，Japan has been a economic recession and deflation vicious cycle，The government to boost the economy has accumulated high debt。But because the Japanese debt repays the main for Japanese financial institutions and national，The proportion of foreign countries to buy only 8.3%，And its own currency compared with Greece have、Independent monetary policy、Relatively strong economic and huge overseas assets，So the short term debt crisis outbreak of extremely unlikely。But if this situation can't get change，Always keep the manger son ble en herbe state，The possibility of a future crisis is inevitable。

　　鉴于此，野田内阁提出通过分阶段将消费税税率由5%提高至10%来解决债务问题，但该提议政治风险巨大，日本朝野对此颇多争议，这注定日本财政整顿步伐将异常缓慢，而政治僵局也是惠誉将日本评级下调的主要因素之一。该议案若最终不能通过，日本信用评级将被进一步下调，从而引发金融市场动荡。

In view of this，YeTian cabinet proposed through the stages will consumption tax rate increased to 10% from 5% to solve the debt problem，But the offer huge political risk，Japan ChaoYe this quite a lot dispute，This is doomed to Japanese financial overhaul unusually slow pace，But the political deadlock and fitch ratings will Japan rating down one of the major factors。The bill if the final doesn't go through，Japan's credit rating will be further lowered，And cause turmoil in financial markets。

　　人民币国际化进程评论 RMB internationalization comments

　　2012年上半年人民币国际化取得了突飞猛进的发展，各项工作次第展开，尤其是改革涉及到了利率市场化、资本项目开放、扩大人民币汇率波幅等敏感话题，表明了中央推进人民币国际化的坚定决心。

In the first half of 2012 RMB internationalization has made rapid development，Work on the attached，Especially a market-oriented interest rate reform involved、Capital projects open、Expand the RMB exchange rate volatility and other sensitive topics，Show that the central advance RMB internationalization firm determination。

　　一，QFII发展节奏加快。

a，QFII speed up the pace of development。

　　统计数据显示，目前已有172家境外机构获得QFII资格，其中145家QFII共计获批272.63亿美元额度，累计净汇入资金1254亿元，QFII账户资产合计约2713亿元，持股市值约占A股流通市值的1.1%。近期，QFII审批速度明显加快，去年12月以来已批准51家QFII和56.23亿美元投资额度。此外，证监会在推动QFII健康、快速发展方面推出两项重要举措：

Statistics show that，At present there were 172 foreign organizations get QFII qualification，Of which 145 QFII total approved $27.263 billion limit，Cumulative net import capital of 125.4 billion yuan，QFII account assets total about 271.3 billion yuan，Holding A share market value accounts for about 1.1% of the current market prise。recent，QFII examination and approval stepped up，Since December last year has approved 51 home and $5.623 billion investment quota QFII。In addition，In promoting the CSRC QFII health、Rapid development of two major move out：

　　一是QFII新增投资额度500亿美元，RQFII新增投资额度500亿元人民币。此举为资本项目开放的提速之举，可有力地促进人民币国际化进程。

A new QFII investment is 50 billion dollars，RQFII new investment is 50 billion yuan RMB。The move for capital projects open for speed，Can effectively promote RMB internationalization process。

　　二是制定《关于实施〈合格境外机构投资者境内证券投资管理办法〉有关问题的规定》, 内容主要包括：降低QFII资格要求，其中资产管理机构、保险公司、其他机构投资者(养老金、主权基金等)的经营时间由5年降为2年，证券资产规模由50亿美元降为5亿美元，体现了鼓励境外长期资金进入的政策导向；增加运作便利，允许QFII为自有资金或管理的客户资金分别开立证券账户，并通过修改相关规定，满足QFII选择多个交易券商的需求；扩大投资范围，在已允许参与股指期货交易的基础上，允许QFII进入银行间债券市场；放宽持股比例限制，将所有境外投资者的持股限制由20%提高到30%，单个境外投资者的持股限制不变。此外，为加快资格审核，《规定》还明确了QFII资格申请文件的电子提交方式，并简化了申请资格文件的要求。《规定》放宽了QFII资格申请门槛和增加运作便利，显示了证监会及相关部门扩大资本市场对外开放的决心。

2 it is formulated《On implementing < qualified foreign institutional investors domestic securities investment management measures > the provisions of the relevant problems》, Content mainly includes：Reduce QFII eligibility requirements，Of these assets management institutions、Insurance company、Other institutional investors(pension、Sovereign funds)Business by five years time reduced to 2 years，Securities assets scale down from $5 billion a us $500 million in，Embodies the encourage foreign long-term capital into the policy guidance of；Increase operation convenience，Allow QFII for their own funds or management of the clients' money open stock account respectively，And through the update relevant regulations，Meet the QFII select multiple transactions of securities demand；Expand investment range，In has allowed participate in stock index futures transaction basis，Allow QFII into the market of the bond between the bank；Relaxing their shareholding restrictions，Will all foreign investors by 20% ownership restrictions increased from 30% to，A single foreign investors holding the same restrictions。In addition，In order to speed up the qualification review，《provisions》Clearly the QFII eligible to apply for the file electronic submission way，And simplify the application documentation。《provisions》Relaxing the QFII eligible to apply for the threshold and increase the operation is convenient，Show the CSRC and the related departments expand capital market opening up of determination。

　　二，中日开展金融合作，人民币“借船出海”。

two，In the financial cooperation，RMB“Sail through”。

　　去年12月底，日本首相野田佳彦首次访华期间，中日两国发表了《中日加强合作发展金融市场》的声明。今年上半年，其中两项措施得以实现。

At the end of December last year，Japan's prime minister during the first visit to "wild tian，The two countries had been published《To strengthen cooperation between the development of financial market》statement。In the first half of this year，Two of the measures can be realized。

　　一是3月13日日本财务大臣安住淳表示，经中国许可，日本获准最多可购入650亿元人民币中国国债，购买资金来自日本外汇资产。日本将成为首个持有中国国债并将其纳入外汇储备的发达国家，将对其他发达国家起到一定示范作用。

One is the March 13 Japanese finance minister Ann live chun said，The China license，Japan was allowed to buy up 65 billion yuan RMB Chinese national debt，Buy fund foreign exchange assets from Japan。Japan will become the first hold China's government bonds and into the foreign exchange reserves of developed countries，In other developed countries will play a role model。

　　二是6月1日起银行间外汇市场开展人民币对日元直接交易。中日两国互为重要贸易伙伴，从2006年开始中国就是日本最大的贸易伙伴，而日本也是仅次于美国、欧盟和东盟的中国第四大贸易伙伴。2011年中日双方贸易额达到3449亿美元，同比增长14.3%，创历史新高。人民币兑日元直接交易，不仅可以降低两国汇率交易风险，更可以提升人民币与日元的国际地位，促进东京和上海作为国际金融中心地位的提升。

2 it is June 1 inter-bank foreign exchange market in renminbi trade directly against the yen。The two countries are important trade partner，Since 2006 China is Japan's biggest trading partner，But Japan is second only to the United States、The European Union and the asean's fourth largest trade partner of China。2011 years, both trade volume was 344.9 billion dollars，Year-on-year growth of 14.3%，A record。The yuan trade directly against the yen，The two countries can not only reduce the exchange rate business risk，More can promote the renminbi and the yen's international standing，Promote Tokyo and Shanghai as an international financial centre of ascension。

　　三，伦敦力图成为人民币离岸“西方中心”，或取代香港地位。

three，London will become offshore RMB“Western center”，Or replace Hong Kong status。

　　4月18日，英国财政大臣奥斯本宣布伦敦准备成为人民币离岸交易的“西方中心”。目前全球人民币离岸交易中，伦敦已占据26%的份额，人民币客户存款及银行同业存款总额超过1090亿元人民币，伦敦人民币业务已初具规模。

April 18,，British chancellor osborne announced to London as an offshore RMB transactions“Western center”。Current global offshore RMB deals，London has a 26% share，The customer deposit and bank inter-bank savings totaled more than 109 billion yuan RMB，London RMB business has begun to take shape。

　　为推进人民币离岸交易中心建立，伦敦已开展多项具体工作。

To advance the yuan offshore trading center set up，London has many in the concrete work。

　　首先，伦敦金融城牵头建立了人民币计划工作组，现有成员包括中国银行(601988,股吧)、巴克莱银行、德意志银行、汇丰银行和渣打银行，英国财政部、英格兰银行及英国金融服务局担任观察员。

first，The city of London led the working group established a RMB plan，Existing members including the bank of China(601988,Shares it)、The barclays bank、Deutsche bank、HSBC and standard chartered bank，The British Treasury、The bank of England and the financial services authority as observers。

　　其次，全球最大的商品交易所伦敦金融交易所（LME）拟用人民币进行金属合约结算。LME的合约是从铝到锌等各种金属的全球基准。尽管这些合约以美元计价，但该交易所为各公司提供了以欧元、日元和英镑结算和清算其交易的选择。近年来，中国对大多数金属的需求占到了全球总需求的40％以上，也令中国在LME期货交易中的份额不断上升。中国可以此为契机，逐步掌握大宗商品定价权，有助于借助伦敦这个重要的国际金融中心，推进人民币国际化进程。

second，The world's largest Commodity Exchange London financial exchanges（LME）Decodes the metal contract settlement。The LME contract from aluminium to zinc and other various metal global benchmark。Although these contracts in dollar terms，But the exchange for the company to offer to the euro、Yen and sterling settlement and liquidation of the trading choice。In recent years，For most of the metal demand China accounted for more than 40% of the global total demand，Also make China in the LME share of futures trading is on the rise。China can this as an opportunity，Gradually grasp the commodity pricing，Help with London this important international financial centre，Advance RMB internationalization process。

　　第三，4月18日，汇丰集团在伦敦发行20亿元人民币优先无担保债券，这是首次在大中华区之外发行人民币债券，也使伦敦成为继香港之后的第二个离岸人民币债券市场，具有里程碑意义。该笔债券的发行将为有意寻求人民币国际融资的欧洲及以外地区的其他机构开启一个崭新的市场，增强了人民币的“体外循环”，从而进一步推动了人民币国际化。

The third，April 18,，In London, the HSBC group issued 2 billion yuan RMB priority unsecured debt，This is the first time in the greater China region the issuance of RMB bonds outside，Also make London become the Hong Kong after the second offshore RMB bonds market，A landmark。The bonds will be published for seeks the European and international financing the outside of the other institutions open a new market，Enhance the RMB“Extracorporeal circulation”，Thus further promoting the RMB internationalization。

　　四，温州、深圳先后开展或准备开展金融改革。

four，wenzhou、Shenzhen successively develop or are preparing to launch financial reform。

　　今年上半年，温州、深圳两大金融活跃地区纷纷开展或准备开展金融改革。3月28日，国务院决定设立温州市金融综合改革试验区；4月12日，深圳市政府审议并原则通过了《关于加强和改善金融服务支持实体经济发展的若干意见》。

In the first half of this year，wenzhou、Shenzhen two big financial active areas in in succession or are preparing to launch financial reform。March 28,，The state council has decided to set up a comprehensive financial reform region of wenzhou；April 12,，Shenzhen government review and principles through the......《On strengthening and improving financial services support the entity economy development certain opinions》。

　　温州金融改革明确指出，要“研究开展个人境外直接投资试点，探索建立规范便捷的直接投资渠道”，表明其有望与沪、津一道作为个人境外直投的试验区域，推进资本项目对外开放。

Wenzhou financial reform explicitly pointed out，to“The foreign direct investment in carrying out the pilot，Explore to establish a standardized convenient direct investment channels”，It is expected to show that with Shanghai、Tianjin as a personal overseas straight investment of the test area，Promote capital project opened up。

　　与之相比，深圳金融改革虽尚待国家相关部门批准实施，但其中最大亮点——深港双向跨境人民币贷款值得关注。首先，该措施为人民币资本项下开放、人民币回流提供了重要平台，能够解决香港的人民币去向问题，增强人民币吸引力；其次，对推动利率市场化有积极影响；第三，有利于深圳借助香港的国际金融中心力量支持本地实体经济发展。

Compared with，Shenzhen financial reform is still to be relevant national authorities for approval，But the biggest bright spot-deep port two-way cross-border RMB loan is a concern。first，The measures for the yuan capital items of open、The yuan provides an important platform backflow，To solve the problem of Hong Kong to，Enhance the attraction；second，To promote market-oriented interest rate to have a positive impact；The third，By the Hong Kong to shenzhen international financial center power to support local economic development entity。

　　五，人民币汇率基本达到均衡水平，央行扩大外汇市场人民币兑美元汇率浮动幅度。

five，The exchange rate of the yuan to achieve basically equilibrium level，Central Banks expand foreign exchange market against the dollar exchange rate fluctuation range。

　　去年年底以来，人民币汇率逐渐接近均衡水平，尤其是今年2月开始，人民币兑美元汇率始终围绕6.30上下波动。同时，贸易顺差、新增外汇占款、银行代客结售汇等数据也间接表明人民币升值趋势已告一段落。IMF虽仍认为人民币币值被低估，但已不再使用“严重”、“显著”等字眼形容人民币币值低估程度。这种状况不仅极大减轻了中国在国际社会面临的要求人民币升值的压力，同时也为人民币汇率改革创造了良好条件。

Since the end of last year，RMB exchange rate approaching equilibrium level，Especially starting in February this year，Against the dollar exchange rate fluctuates up and down to end around 6.30。At the same time，Trade surplus、Combines new foreign exchange、Bank valet data also show that such as below writtens guarantee carry out assembles indirectly the appreciation of the renminbi trend has to end。IMF is still think was undervalued，But no longer use“serious”、“significant”The word to describe the value of the RMB underestimated degree。This situation not only greatly reduced the China in the international society faces pressure to revalue the renminbi，But also for the RMB exchange rate reform created good condition。

　　基于此，4月16日起，央行决定银行间即期外汇市场人民币兑美元交易价浮动幅度由5‰扩大至1%，外汇指定银行为客户提供当日美元最高现汇卖出价与最低现汇买入价之差不得超过当日汇率中间价的幅度由1%扩大至2%。

Based on this，April 16，Central bank decided to spot foreign exchange market between Banks against the dollar traded price fluctuation range from 5 ‰ expand from 1% to，The designated foreign exchange Banks provide for the customer the highest spot $on that day and the lowest bid price spot of selling shall not exceed the poor on the extent of the rate by 1% to 2% expansion。

　　增加汇率弹性是人民币国际化的必然要求，可进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制，为资本账户开放打好基础，增加国内金融市场的广度和深度，有效抑制短期资本流入，增强宏观调控的自主性。

Increase the flexibility of the exchange rate of RMB internationalization is the inevitable requirement，To further improve the RMB exchange rate mechanism，For open capital account to build the foundation，Increase the domestic financial market breadth and depth，Inhibit the short-term capital inflows，Strengthen macro-control of autonomy。

　　六，央行首次以官方报告形式描绘出中国资本市场开放的清晰路径，并给出具体时间表。

six，The central bank for the first time in the official report form painted China capital market open clear path，And give specific timetable。

　　2月份，央行研究报告《我国加快资本账户开放条件基本成熟》发布，第一次明确提出中国加快资本账户开放的条件基本成熟，并将整个过程分为短期、中期、长期三个阶段。短期安排（1-3年）：放松有真实交易背景的直接投资管制，鼓励企业“走出去”；中期安排（3-5年）：放松有真实贸易背景的商业信贷管制，助推人民币国际化；长期安排（5-10年）：加强金融市场建设，先开放流入后开放流出，依次审慎开放不动产、股票及债券交易，逐步以价格型管理替代数量型管制。此为央行首次以官方报告形式描绘出中国资本项下开放的清晰路径，并给出具体时间表，标志着启动资本项目完全可兑换的议题进入议事日程。

February，The central bank research report《In accelerating China's capital account liberalization conditions basic mature》release，The first clearly put China to speed up the opening capital account basic conditions mature，And the whole process is divided into short-term、middle、Long-term three stages。Short-term arrangements（1-3 years）：Relax have real transaction of the background of the direct investment control，Encourage enterprise“Go out”；Mid-term arrangement（3-5 years）：Relax with real trade of the background of the commercial credit controls，Thrusting RMB internationalization；Long-term arrangements（5-10 years）：Strengthen the financial market construction，Open before the opening out into，In turn prudent open realty、Stock and bond transaction，Gradually by price type management alternative quantity control。This is the central bank for the first time in the official report describes the form China's capital under a clear path of open，And give specific timetable，Marks the start capital project is completely convertible issues into the agenda。

　　资本项目完全可兑换的改革之所以重要，是因为它是中国经济与世界经济的最后一道屏障，此屏障一开，30余年改革形成的优势和不足都将瞬时暴露在国际经济体系之下，可能获取更多收益，也可能承担更大风险。总体上看，应按照周小川行长所提的，坚持以对外债总量和短期资本流动的管理为底线的原则，渐进稳妥地的加以推进。

Capital project is completely convertible reform is important，Because it is the Chinese economy and the world economy finally a barrier，The barrier to open a，More than 30 years of reform for the advantages and disadvantages of the instantaneous exposure will be in the international economy under，May get more revenue，May also take more risks。On the whole，According to the governor zhou xiaochuan should be proposed，Adhere to the total amount of foreign debt and short-term capital flows to the principle of management of the bottom line，To promote the gradual safely。

　　七，中国利率市场化改革迈出坚实一步，但目前推进利率完全市场化改革时机尚不成熟。

seven，China's market-oriented interest rate reform take solid step，But at present interest rate marketization reform of completely time is not mature。

　　6月7日，央行决定将金融机构一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点，一年期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点。同时，将金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限调整为基准利率的1.1倍，将金融机构贷款利率浮动区间的下限调整为基准利率的0.8倍。

June 7，Central bank decided to financial institutions the 1-year benchmark deposit rate 0.25%，The benchmark one-year lending rate by 0.25%。At the same time，Will financial institutions deposit interest rate of the upper limit of the range of floating benchmark interest rate adjusted for 1.1 times，Will financial institutions loan interest rate band the lower limit of benchmark interest rate adjusted for 0.8 times。

　　事实上，自1996年放开同业拆借市场利率以来，目前金融市场利率（国债、金融债和企业债等）、货币市场利率（银行同业拆借、贴现、转贴现等）、外币市场利率均已基本实现市场化；贷款利率下限管制在信贷需求旺盛、资源稀缺的情况下基本发挥不了作用，因此也基本上市场化；目前尚未市场化的其实只有存款利率，而其借助信托理财、协议存款、财政存款招标等替代方式也已达到部分放开的效果。但存款利率上限不能超过基准利率、贷款利率下限不能低于基准利率0.9倍的限制一直存在。此次央行宣布扩大存款利率上限和贷款利率下限事实上是在渐进推进利率市场化改革，虽尚未完全放开管制，但朝着利率市场化的方向又迈出了坚实的一步。

In fact，Since 1996 the inter-bank market interest rates since the release，The current financial market interest rates（National debt、JinRongZhai and QiYeZhai, etc）、Monetary market interest rates（Bank lending、discount、Turn discount, etc）、Foreign currency market interest rates are already accomplish basic market；The loan interest rate floor regulation in credit demand、Scarce resources under the condition of the basic do role，And so basically marketization；The market has yet to actually only deposit rates，And with the trust financing、Agreement deposits、Financial deposit bidding alternatives such as way also has already reached the part of the effect of the release。But the ceiling on deposit interest rates can't more than benchmark rates、The lower mortgage rates should not be below the benchmark interest rate 0.9 times the limit has always been there。The central bank announced that expand the ceiling on deposit interest rates and lending rates lower limit is in fact the progressive promote market-oriented interest rate reform，Hasn't been completely let go of control，But toward the direction of the interest rate marketization and made a solid step。

　　当前，利率市场化已成为众望所向，但是利率市场化将导致社会财富分配格局的重大改变，对此社会各界必须有所准备。我国目前利率管制的真正受益方是资金使用人，是各类工商企业和社会的基础建设项目。政府通过存款利率上限管制保证了企业和社会基建项目较低的融资成本。而如果放开利率管制，受益的将是存款人，受损的是用款企业。受益方和受损方互换，将导致整个社会财富分配格局的改变。银行只是提供资金融通的一个中介，所能起到的只是价格传导的作用，即使放开存款利率管制，银行也需维持适度的基本可循环的净息差水平，结果只能导致贷款利率相应提高。

The current，Interest rate marketization has become capable of the currency，But interest rate marketization will lead to social wealth distribution pattern of the big change，To the social from all walks of life must prepare for that。Our country at present interest rate control real benefited party is capital user，All kinds of industry and commerce is the foundation of the enterprise and society construction project。The government through the ceiling on deposit interest rates control ensures the enterprise and social infrastructure project financing costs low。And if let go of interest rate control，The benefit is the depositor，The losers are the use of enterprise。Benefited party and the damaged party swaps，Will cause the entire social wealth distribution pattern of the change。The bank provide just the financing a intermediary，Can provide the transmission of just the price action，Even if let go of deposit interest rate control，The bank also need to maintain moderate basic circulating net spreads level，The results can only lead to loan interest rate increase。

　　有鉴于此，利率市场化改革的时机必须较好把握，企业的承受能力必须重点考虑，只有在企业成本上升的和缓期才是存款利率放开的最佳时点：一是通胀较低时期。此时存款负利率效应不明显，利率放开后，名义存款利率上升不明显，相应的名义贷款利率上升也不明显，企业相对容易承受，对实体经济冲击相对较小；二是生产要素价格上升较稳定时期。生产要素价格稳定，则企业经营预期比较明确，利率市场化后，面对融资成本上升，企业也可专心应对。

In view of the，The timing of the market-oriented interest rate reform must be better master，Enterprise bear ability must key consideration，Only in the enterprise rising cost of suspended and let go of deposit interest rate is at best：One is the period of low inflation。This time deposit firmly negative effect is not obvious，Interest rates after let go，Deposit interest rates rose in the name is not clear，The name of the corresponding loan interest rates rose is not obvious，Enterprise is relatively easy to bear，Economic impact on the entity relatively small；Two factors of production is a stable price rise period。Production elements price stability，The enterprise management expected more clear，After interest rate marketization，Facing the cost of their finance goes up，Enterprise can also be to concentrate。

　　短期来看，目前推进利率完全市场化的时机还不够理想，主要是物价形势不稳定，尤其是近几年投放的超量货币所蕴藏的推动物价上涨的势能尚未完全释放。但中期来看，放开利率管制的条件要好于前些年，主要是因为汇率、土地成本、人员工资等已经经历了一轮较快增长，目前涨幅逐渐趋稳。同时，我国经济逐渐步入调整周期，去产能化将带来主要生产要素价格的稳定甚至下降。因此，当前可参考其他国家和地区利率市场化经验，制定未来3到5年存款利率放开的明确时间表，给社会各界尤其是企业界以明确预期，以便提前应对资金成本的必然上升。

The short term，At present the timing of the marketization of interest rate completely also insufficient ideal，Mainly is the price situation is not stable，Especially in recent years by currency launched seems to push prices up potential energy has not yet been fully released。But in the medium term，Let go of interest rates is better than the control condition of a few years ago，Mainly because the exchange rate、Land cost、Personnel salary, etc have experienced a rapid growth，At present or gradually stabilised。At the same time，Our country economy gradually into the adjustment period，Go to the main production capacity will bring prices down even the stability of the elements。so，The current may refer to other countries and regions interest rate marketization experience，For the next three to five years deposit interest rate let go of clear timetable，To the social from all walks of life especially business in order to make clear expectations，In order to deal with the inevitable in advance capital costs rise。