上周沪指已经十分逼近自今年5月初形成的下降通道线的下轨线，由于上周酿酒、医药、农业和旅游酒店板块等尚有表现，促使沪指一直徘徊于下轨线附近但始终没有击穿，深市由于中小市值股题材炒作，总体表现好过沪市。但昨日随着前期热点的退潮，两市大盘再度大跌，而且沪指已经将下轨线打穿了。

Last week HuZhi has been very approximate since early may this year of the formation of the decline of the rail line channel lines under，Wine because of last week、medicine、Agriculture and tourism hotel plate there such as performance，Prompted HuZhi has been wandering in the rail line under nearby but never breakdown，Shenzhen exchanges and shares because market value subject hype，Overall performance better than Shanghai。But yesterday the ebb of hot with，Two city market plunged again，And HuZhi has will play next trajectories wear。

　　沪深两市的疲软正是目前国内经济暂时难言见底的真实写照，6月份全社会用电量数据将延迟公布，预计同比增幅略超4%，环比出现下降，先前披露的今年1—5月份全社会用电量大幅回落，显示实体经济的活力已经明显减弱。虽然这两周发审委已经停止了对新股IPO的申请，但市场上累积的待流通限售股也不少，今年以来，大小非和高管减持已经超过750亿元。在大盘持续下跌的情况下，解禁后的限售股抛售潮将是A股后市上行的拦路虎。

The city of shenzhen two weak at present domestic economy is temporarily last see bottom true portraiture，In June the whole society power consumption data will delay announced，Year-on-year rate of increase is expected to slightly more than 4%，Month-on-month drop，Previously disclosed in May this year 1-the whole society dropped sharply in the power consumption，Shows the vitality of the economy has weakened obviously。Although the two weeks FaShenWei have stopped for new shares for an IPO，But the market for the accumulation of circulation limited sales shares also many，Since this year，The size and executive holdings has more than 75 billion yuan。In the last fall，After the ban of the limited A sale is A shares will be selling the tide is uplink obstacle。

　　技术面上来看，沪指已经向下突破了下轨线，深市也有可能重回自5月初形成的下降通道线内，因此对两市股指的后市表现并不宜太乐观。两市成交量相比上周五均有所放大，显示昨日因大盘下挫而抛售的筹码较多。需要提醒的是，后市强势板块补跌的可能性仍然比较大，对于电力、酿酒等板块后市的杀跌风险不得不防。

Technology face to see，HuZhi have break downward under the rail line，Shenzhen exchanges may also have since early may return to form the decline in the channel lines，So the two city stock market outlook performance and shoulds not be too optimistic。Two city volume are compared to enlarge last Friday，Because the show yesterday sold chips down more。What need reminds is，The strong market outlook for the possibility of plate falling still relatively large，In a power、Wine is sectors such as winners of risk have to prevent。

　　在沪深大盘“跌跌不休”的同时，投资者可积极寻找有事件驱动的板块个股。6月份航空公司终于扭亏为盈，行业利润总额超过了20亿元，与去年同比增长超过10%。航空运输行业利润增长的回升，主要还是受益于当前国际原油价格低位徘徊，航空燃油价格因此也维持在低位这一事件。从该板块表现上看，东方航空最为抢眼，中国国航涨幅次之，除了受国际原油价格下跌的正面影响之外，更多获益于随着暑期到来，国内旅客客流量明显增多这一事件的驱动。预计东方航空和南方航空7月份的国内旅客量将同比增长超过8%，国航也不示弱，其增长幅度也将达到7%。

In the short-time“Stumble endlessly”At the same time，Investors can be actively looking for a event driven plate stocks。June airline finally out of the red，Industry profit total more than 2 billion yuan，And more than 10% year-on-year growth last year。Air transport industry profit growth upwards，Main or benefit from the current international crude oil prices low around，Aviation fuel prices so also maintain in the low post this event。From the plate on the performance，Grab an eye most eastern airlines，Air China or take second place，In addition to international crude oil prices fell by the positive influence of outside，More benefit from as summer arrival，Domestic passenger traffic significantly increased the event's driver。Eastern airlines and China southern airlines is expected in July domestic passenger volume will year-on-year growth of more than 8%，Air China are also running，Its growth rate will reach 7%。

　　除了板块个股可能因为事件驱动出现上涨外，板块业绩增长预期也是促使相关个股走强的主要因素之一。笔者认为，可以留意行业业绩的变化情况，对于具有业绩预增的行业个股不妨提前布局。电子行业目前虽然整体上仍不令人满意，今年中期业绩依然低迷，根据已经发布中期业绩预告的92家电子类上市公司情况看，合计中期净利润增速在-20.2%—2.7%之间，但明年该行业的景气预计将好于今年，该板块中业绩优良个股是不错的投资选择。（执业证书：S0960611050019）

In addition to individual stocks may because event driven plate rose outside，Earnings growth expected plate also contribute to related stocks go strong one of the major factors。The author thinks that，Can watch industry change of performance，With a pre-performance industry stocks might as well layout in advance。The electronics industry at present although overall still unsatisfactory，This year the medium-term performance downturn continues，According to the medium-term performance have been issued notice subclass 92 home appliance can see the listed company，Total net profit growth in the mid-20.2%-2.7% between，But the industry boom of next year is expected to be better than this year，The plate of individual stocks is a good achievement fine investment options。（Practice certificate：S0960611050019）