虽然对当前经济数据早有预期，但投资者的悲观情绪还是持续上升，中期业绩地雷更加剧了这一恐慌情绪。周一，包括中兴通讯、苏宁电器(002024,股吧)等的103家个股跌停，其中，相对高估值的创业板、中小板更成为重灾区。依照历史经验，这种现象往往意味着一轮最恐慌的杀跌接近尾声。基于估值等长期因素，破与不破2132点，已经并不重要。因为当前调整只是对1664点的二次回探。

Although to current economic data had expected，But investor pessimism still continued to rise，Interim results mines has intensified the panic。On Monday，Including zte、Su ning electric equipment(002024,Shares it)The 103 companies such as individual stocks drop stop，Among them，Relatively high valuation of the gem、Small and medium plate more become the worst-hit areas。According to the historical experience，This phenomenon is the most scare often means round winners near the end。Based on valuations long-term factors，Broken and the 2132 points，Already not important。Because the current adjusted to 1664 points of two only time back to ground。

　　事实上，5月底提出“稳增长”之后，各项投资、消费与出口的政策正不断落实，经济下滑趋势将逐步得到遏制。股市总会提前作出反应，与投资紧密相关的强周期股，也开始渐次反弹。这里要引起我们注意的，并不是指数如何变动，而是当持续弱势的周期股回暖时，对市场内部股价结构原有均衡所构成的影响。笔者认为，未来一段时间里，市场还需要经历一轮结构分化的再平衡过程。

In fact，At the end of may put forward“Steady growth”after，investments、Consumption and export policy is unceasingly to carry out，Economic slowdown will gradually contained。The stock market will react in advance，And is closely related to the investment of strong cycle shares，Also gradually began to rebound。Here to cause our attention，And not how to change index，But when the weakness of the last cycle when warmed shares，Internal market share price structure of the original equilibrium form influence。The author thinks that，The next time，The market is still need to experience the round structure differentiation the rebalancing process。

　　首先，之所以会形成“一半是火焰，一半是海水”的市场格局，直接原因是宏观经济步入复杂转型期后业绩压力，其次是市场资金与市值扩容之间不匹配。2007年见顶以来，指数持续下行，跌幅达六成，但由于股改所带来的流通性扩容，目前的流通市值依然超过6124点。资金供给与市值扩容所带来的冲击，中短期内仍然是一个主要矛盾。虽然今年以来，包括增加QFII额度、养老金入市，打通保险、银行、信托与证券的投资通道，扩大资金增量的政策方向十分明确，但还需要时间。比较有利的是，股票估值已大幅度下移，为长期机构资金入场提供了绝佳机遇。正是因为上述矛盾，才造成过去几年强烈的冷热对比，这是市场“自我缩容”的结果，以消费服务为抱团取暖的对象。中短期内面临一个问题，那就是“火焰”（牛股）与“海水”（熊股）是否兼容，通常情况下，“海水”与“火焰”不相容。当更具低估值优势的强周期股出现机会（哪怕是冬日暖阳）时，会对相对高估值的“火焰”构成直接打击。因此，近期我们应该注意这种结构变化所带来的风险。不要以为白酒、医药、地产等就会一路稳定前行，当这些群体加速上行得到一致认同时，风险就会悄然而至。

first，Are formed“Half is a flame，Half is water”Of the market structure，The direct reason is the macro economy into complex transition performance after pressure，Next is the market funds and the expansion of market value between don't match。2007 years since peaked，Index continued down，Fall sixty percent，But because reform brings the liquidity expansion，The current market prise are still more than 6124 points。Capital supply and the market value of the impact of the expansion，In the near future is still a major conflict。Although since this year，Including the increased QFII quotas、Pension market，Through insurance、bank、Securities investment trust and the channel，Expand capital of incremental policy direction is very clear，But he will need time。More favorable is，Stock valuations have been folding，For long-term institutions provide best chance for the money。It is for the above contradiction，Just cause in the past few years the strong contrast hot and cold，This is the market“Self shrink let”results，To consumer services for BaoTuan heating of object。In the near face a problem，That is“flame”（winners）and“seawater”（Bear shares）Is compatible，usually，“seawater”and“flame”Don't mix。When more low valuations advantage of strong cycle shares appear opportunity（Even if it is warm winter sun）when，The relatively high valuation of the will“flame”Constitutes a direct hit。so，We should pay attention to the recent changes in the structure brings the risk。Do not think that liquor、medicine、Real estate, etc will go all the way to the stable，When these groups have accelerated uplink consensus，Risk will just over the horizon。

　　当然，一批强周期股如工程机械、水泥、钢铁、煤炭等个股，如果未来一段时间里如期反弹甚至强力上扬，更不要忘记其长期趋势。作为传统经济模式下的产物，我们可用历史上的类似案例加以比较。像上世纪90年代的电视机制造业龙头四川长虹(600839,股吧)，是1995-1997年那一轮牛市的领导者，当时的主流产业代表。然而，伴随产业转型，彩电业渐渐成为“明日黄花”。随着十几年时间里，虽然有过著名的“5·19”行情和2005-2007年的大牛市，但四川长虹的反弹高点始终远离历史高位。2005年见历史大底的时候，该股还创出历史新低。以史为鉴，当前像武钢、鞍钢、中国石化等个股股价率先跌穿“1664点”对应的股价位置，也就可以理解了。由此，我们需要思考2005-2007年期间的那一批传统产业代表股，它们可能不再有春天。取而代之，将有一批能够引领新一轮经济增长的主流产业，虽然还不能确定是什么，但大方向已无疑。

Of course，A group of engineering machinery such as strong cycle、cement、steel、Coal and other stocks，If the next time a rebound on even higher，Don't forget the more long term trend。As a traditional economic mode of the product，We can be used on the history of similar cases compared。Like the 1990 s television manufacturing leading sichuan long rainbow(600839,Shares it)，Is 1995-1997 that round the bull market leader，At the time, the mainstream industry representatives。however，Along with the industry transition，Achieve become gradually“The pages of history”。With more than 10 years，Although there is a famous“5 19”An option and 2005-2007 of the bull market，But the bounce of the sichuan long rainbow high always away from historic highs。2005 saw the outsole history，The unit also makes record lows。Taking history as a mirror，The current like wisco、angang、China petrochemical and other stocks in the share price fall“1664 points”The corresponding share price position，We can understand。this，We need to think about 2005-2007, during a batch of traditional industries that represents shares，They may no longer have the spring。instead，There will be a number of new economic growth can lead the mainstream industry，Although still not sure what it was，But general control has undoubtedly。

　　因此，短期注意趋势投资的，当然还是关注地产、医药、白酒、证券、保险、火电等，特别是二、三线品种的挖掘，更要注意可能出现的急速回调。至于强周期股以及大量制造业个股，看上去有一定安全性，但趋势强烈向下时，也不可轻易逆势而为。

so，Short-term trend of investment attention，Of course or focus on real estate、medicine、liquor、securities、insurance、Thermal power, etc，Especially the、Three line varieties of mining，More attention to possible rapid callback。As for strong cycle shares as well as a number of manufacturing stocks，Looks like a certain security，But the trend is down strongly，And do not easily gone against the general trends。

　　（执业证书：S1450611020014）

（Practice certificate：S1450611020014）