⊙平安证券研究所

⊙ peace securities research institute

　　1. 市场低估了三项变化 1. The market underestimated the three changes

　　经验看，经济、政策、资金的“三底叠加”能够驱动市场回升，但本轮周期却在颠覆这种传统的经验判断，原因在于低估了本轮周期的三项变化：第一，需求传导变得艰难。投资、消费等需求细项都显示经济开始企稳回升，但需求变化向中上游产业链的传导却异常艰难，去库存压力总是如影随形，背后则是巨大的去产能诉求；第二，货币乘数加速下行。宏观层面的经济景气下行和微观层面的金融结构重组导致货币乘数超预期下行，这也意味着流动性的边际改善需要依赖于更多的货币投放和更强的政策放松。第三，政策容忍度在提升。人口红利衰减导致就业与经济数据脱钩，换届因素使政府决策更多着眼长期转型。政策放松更多以预调、微调和存量挪移方式实现，大规模增量刺激很难成行。

Experience see，economic、policy、funds“The three superposition”Can drive market to bounce back，But this cycle is in this kind of traditional subversion experience judgment，Reason is that this round of three underestimated the cycle changes：The first，Transmission needs more difficult。investment、Consumption and other items that demand stabilising the economy started to bounce back，But needs to change the industrial chain of conduction but reaches an unusually difficult，To inventory pressure is always bedfellows，It is great to behind productivity appeal；The second，Money multiplier accelerated to the downside。The macroscopic level of economic boom down and micro financial structure reorganization led to money multiplier than expected to the downside，It also means that the mobility of marginal improvement needs to rely on in more money issued and stronger policy to relax。The third，Policy in the ascension of tolerance。Demographic dividend attenuation lead to obtain employment and economic data decoupling，Change of government decision-making more focus on the factors long-term transformation。Policy to relax more under attack、Trimmer and stock move means，Large-scale incremental stimulation is hard to take place。

　　2. 短期和长期仍将纠结 2. The short and long term will still entanglements

　　上述三大变化的直接结果是：市场反映实体变化的时间被拉长，反弹空间和力度会减弱，由此可以大致勾勒出短期和长期市场的演变图谱：

The above three big change is a direct result of：The market changes reflect the time be spun entity，Space and strength will weaken the rebound，Therefore it can be roughly draw the outline of short-term and long-term market of the evolution of the map：

　　（1）短期：何时反弹，何处反弹？坚持看好三季度反弹，7月下半段是时间窗口。流动性和政策好转大概率发生在经济预期好转之前。流动性角度看，7月以来资金利率下行缓慢，对冲货币乘数下降必须依赖进一步的货币放松，下半月降准值得期待，亦可能成为资金面加速改善的催化剂；政策角度看，8月份的北戴河会议或成为市场政策预期变化的重要拐点。

（1）short-term：Rebound when，Rally where？In the third quarter to rebound value，The second half of July segment is time window。Liquidity and policy better big probability happened in economy expected better before。Liquidity perspective，Since July funds rate down slowly，Hedge their currency multiplier decline further monetary relaxation must rely on，Second drop must be worth to expect，It could also accelerate the improvement on the financing side as catalyst；Policy perspective，August meeting or become market beidaihe policy of expected changes to the important turning point。

　　（2）长期：周期还是非周期？经济层面看，即使短周期见底，长周期调整格局仍未变。制度层面看，如果实体和市场都缺乏自发供给调整机制，则供给收缩难度远高于需求扩张。代表过去十年重工业化成果的周期股即使短期反弹，长期仍然会朝破净方向演变（这样才能被动优化经济和市场结构）。中长期依然是非周期的天堂，只要没看到长周期调整结束迹象，就很难看到非周期估值溢价的终结。

（2）long-term：Cycle or a cycle？Economic perspectives，Even short cycle see bottom，Long cycle pattern adjustment is still not changed。System level see，If the entity and the market are lack of spontaneous supply adjustment system，The difficulty is far higher than the supply contract needs expansion。On behalf of the past ten years heavy industrialization of achievement cycle shares even short term rally，Long-term will still be the net direction in evolution（Such ability passive optimize economic and market structure）。Still the paradise of the medium and long term is cycle，As long as no see long cycle adjustment signs end，Is it is difficult to see the end of the cycle premium valuations。