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期指缩量反弹 多头上攻无力--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-18

  ⊙记者 叶苗 见习记者 董铮铮 ○编辑 杨晓坤

Reporter YeMiao trainee reporters ⊙ DongZhengZheng ○ YangXiaoKun editor

  周二,期指小幅上涨主力合约低开高走,尾盘15分钟小幅上涨,最终收报2422.4点,上涨0.26%。从期现价差看,主力合约升水幅度有所收敛,空头套利空间减小。从持仓上看,IF1207合约多空双方均有减仓行为,IF1208合约持仓量继续大增,主力资金移仓换月迹象明显,同时,主力合约成交量和总持仓量较上一交易日有所缩减,多头上攻无力。业内人士表示,目前,经济形势的低迷将令股指承压,短期若无重大利好,将延续弱势格局。

On Tuesday,Refers to a small rise period,Main contract low open high to go,End dish a modest rise in 15 minutes,Finally finished at 2422.4 points,Up 0.26%。Now look at the price from period,Main contract premium amplitude slightly convergence,Short-sellers arbitrage space decrease。Look from the open,IF1207 empty contract both sides are decrease a storehouse behavior,Open IF1208 contract amount continue to soar,Main capital move warehouse in signs on obvious,At the same time,Main contract volume and total position on the lower amount of reduction of a trading day,Many head to attack。People in the industry say,At present,The economic situation will slump stock index confined,Short term without a major positive news,Will be vulnerable pattern。

  

期指盘中再探低点 Phase plate again low to agent

  昨日,股指期货主力合约IF1207低开高走,最高上攀至2429点,最低下探至2409.6点,最终报收于2422.4点,较上一交易日结算价上涨6.2点,微涨0.26%。IF1208收报2429.8点,上涨5.4点,微涨0.22%;IF1209收报2440.2点,上涨4.0点,微涨0.16%;隔季合约IF1212收盘报2469.4点,上涨3.6点,微涨0.15%。

yesterday,Main stock index futures contract IF1207 low open high to go,The highest climb to 2429 points,Minimum dip to 2409.6 points,At the final at 2422.4,A previous day settlement price rose 6.2 points,Closed up 0.26%。IF1208 at 2429.8 points,Rose 5.4 points,Closed up 0.22%;IF1209 at 2440.2 points,Rose 4.0 points,Closed up 0.16%;Every season IF1212 contract closed at 2469.4 points for,Rose 3.6 points,Closed up 0.15%。

  全球经济低迷依旧对投资者信心造成影响,昨日市场消息面仍旧偏空。央行开展200亿元逆回购操作,外汇占款低增触发降准预期;1-6月国有企业利润同比下降11.6%;中国上半年实际使用外资同比下降3%,6月份下跌约7%;IMF下调全球经济增长预期,下调中国今明两年经济增速;6月美国零售下降0.5%,大幅低于预期。

The global economic downturn on investor confidence still influence,Market news yesterday face still partial empty。The central bank in 20 billion yuan inverse repurchase operation,The gap low down the foreign exchange trigger must expectations;1-June state-owned enterprise profits 11.6% year-on-year drop;In the first half of China actually using a foreign investment of 3% year-on-year drop,June fell about 7%;IMF cuts global economic growth expectations,China cut in the next two years economic growth;June U.S. retail fell 0.5%,Sharply lower than expected。

  从期现价差来看,主力合约升水幅度有所收敛,截至收盘,IF1207和现货沪深300指数间正溢价8.2点。值得注意的是,昨日期指主力合约盘中一度出现今年以来的第二低点,同时成交量进一步萎缩。专家表示,低迷成交量显示市场信心疲弱,短期若无政策利好,股指进一步下探前期低点的可能性较大。

Now to see the price from the period,Main contract premium amplitude slightly convergence,By the closing,IF1207 and spot csi 300 index was 8.2 point between premium。Note the,Yesterday to contract period main dish once appear since this year's second low,At the same time, the volume of further atrophy。Experts say,Low volume display market confidence weak,Short-term if not good policy,Further dip below the previous low stock index probability。

 

 空方主力略占优势 Empty main party slightly dominant

  中金所盘后持仓排名显示,1207合约前20名多头席位合计持有2.58万手,持仓量减少5741手,前20名空头主力合计持有3.19万手,持仓量减少5287手,多空双方均有减仓行为。具体席位上,国泰君安减持多单1411手,空单529手,中证期货减持空单22手,多单502手,IF1208合约增持多单5070手,增持空单5116手,主力资金移仓远月合约迹象明显。

The dish in the open after cicc display,1207 the contract of top 20 seats more than 25800 total hold hands,5741 open reduction of the hand,Top 20 players hold 31900 total short hand,5287 open reduction of the hand,Empty both sides are decrease a storehouse behavior。Specific seats on,Cathay Pacific reduced their hand to more than 1411 single hand,Empty hands for 529,Futures has reduced their empty single 22 hand,Single hand more than 502,IF1208 contract more than 5070 additional single hand,Additional single 5116 empty hands,Main capital move warehouse with distant months obvious signs。

  中期研究院金融研究部负责人宋楚平认为,经济形势的低迷以及资金面欠缺仍将主宰后市走势。后期如果没有更有力政策支撑的话,股指期货继续挑战2400点支撑的可能性较大。

Middle SongChuPing think of financial research institute,The economic situation slump and lack the financing side will still dominate the market outlook movements。If no late more powerful policy supporting it,Stock index futures continue to challenge the possibility of support at 2400 is larger。

  上海中期分析师认为,在经济基本面对股市不能形成支撑的同时,近期股市还要承受解禁股及新股发行的双重压力,将令期指走势承压。不过,市场对于降准的预期也在一定程度上对股指形成支撑,有利于股指后期的走势。

Shanghai middle analysts think,In the basic economic face the stock market can't form at the same time support,Recent stock market also lifted shares and the new shares under the double pressure,Will to trend of pressure。but,The market for registration in the anticipation down a degree of stock index support form,The trend of the late to stock index。

  瑞达期货(博客,微博)表示,技术面看,股指昨日技术性反弹因素浓厚,成交量有所萎缩,多头受制于量能制约仍无法组织像样的上攻。总体上看,市场目前关注的重心在于中国经济未来能否企稳,目前尚无迹象显示经济已探底,任何利空都将继续打压股指,未来除非有较大的利好政策配合,否则股指还将延续这种弱势。

Rita futures(blog,Micro bo)said,Technology face look,Yesterday the technical rebound strong stock index factors,Volume to atrophy,More subject to quantity can still can't restrict organization attack on a decent。On the whole,Market are focused on China's economic future centered on whether stabilising,At present there is no signs that the economy has the agent,Any bad will continue to crack down on stock index,The future unless there is greater with good policy,Otherwise the stock index will continue this kind of weak。



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