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业绩下滑难阻预期向好 保险股多轮驱动受追捧--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-20
保费下半年好转趋势基本确定,尤其是寿险业务已连续两个月好转,且降息使银行、信托理财产品的收益率下降,保险产品的吸引力逐步上升。另一方面,保险业扶持政策持续出炉,市场对保险股的预期逐步改善。
The second half of the basic determine premium better trend,Especially life insurance business has improved for two consecutive months,And so that Banks to cut interest rates、Trust financial products yields down,The attraction of the insurance products to rise gradually。On the other hand,Insurance policy support last month,The market for insurance stocks expected gradually improve。
种种迹象显示,已开始有机构资金陆续流入保险股。
Various signs,Has started to have institutions in insurance stocks into money。
⊙记者 卢晓平 黄蕾 ○编辑 孙忠
Reporter LuXiaoPing HuangLei ○ ⊙ SunZhong editor
保费向好,投资受益于降息周期以及扶持政策持续兑现,推动了保险股昨日联袂上涨。
Premium up well,Investment benefit from cut interest rates and support policies for cash cycle,Promote the insurance stocks rising co-star yesterday。
对于今年初即开始推荐保险股的行业研究员来说,昨日四大保险股的发威颇有“痛快”之感。
For earlier this year, it started to recommend insurance stocks industry for researchers,Four big insurance stocks yesterday of a player“time”feeling。
“从保费、资产以及偿付能力方面来看,保险行业环比表现均呈现缓中向好的趋势。第二季度保费环比改善趋势明显,较一季度末提升约1个百分点;在持续降息带动下,净资产较年初增长21.2%;行业偿付能力达标的保险公司占到94.6%。市场运行缓中趋稳、稳中向好。”一家投行的保险研究员称。
“From premium、Assets and solvency angles,Insurance industry are significantly slow performance in November to good trend。The second quarter premium annulus comparing improve obviously the trend,A quarter of about 1% at the end of ascension;In the continuous driven to cut interest rates,The year net assets increased 21.2%;Industry standard insurance company the solvency of 94.6%。The market operation of slow stabilised、Undermined stability。”One of the researchers call insurance investment Banks。
这与监管部门对行业的评价相一致。来自保险监管工作会议信息显示,上半年国内保险业发展呈现业务发展企稳回升、结构调整稳步推进、整体实力不断增强的态势。
This and supervision department of industry of evaluation are in agreement。From insurance supervision work conference information display,In the first half on domestic insurance business development stabilising picks up、Structure adjustment steadily、The overall strength of the growing trend。
此前,中国太保(601601,股吧)一纸“上半年净利润同比下滑55%”的公告,引起了市场对于保险股上半年业绩普遍不佳的担忧。综合投行预测及记者采访获悉,除中国平安依靠银行等非保险业务能够实现净利同比正增长外,中国人寿、新华保险(601336,股吧)上半年净利润抑遭遇不同程度的下滑。
after,What China(601601,Shares it)A paper“Net profit fell 55% in the first half year-on-year”announcement,Caused the market for insurance stocks the first half performance generally not beautiful concerns。Comprehensive investment bank forecasts and reporters learned,Besides China peace rely on Banks of insurance business will be able to realize the net is the year-on-year growth,China life、Xinhua insurance(601336,Shares it)In the first half net profit or the degree of experience different slide。
但事实上,上半年净利下滑主因不是市场担心的保险股基本面恶化,而是去年投资浮亏计提递延、同期基数较高所致。目前,这些负面因素已经充分释放。这也是为何中国太保发布预减公告后,股价不跌反涨的主因。
But in fact,Net profit in the first half of the decline is not market worry cause insurance stocks fundamentals worse,But last year FuKui investment plan deferred、Caused by the same period high base。At present,These negative factors have released in full。This is why China released what gets after the public announcement reduction,Share prices fall the cause of the rise not。
种种迹象显示,已开始有机构资金陆续流入保险股。一方面,保费下半年好转趋势基本确定,尤其是寿险业务已经连续两个月好转,且在货币政策放松的背景下,降息使银行、信托理财产品的收益率下降,保险产品的吸引力逐步上升,寿险保费三、四季度有望继续转好。另一方面,扶持政策持续出炉,包括投资政策兑现临近,承保政策持续开辟新市场。
Various signs,Has started to have institutions in insurance stocks into money。On the one hand,The second half of the basic determine premium better trend,Especially life insurance business has improved for two consecutive months,And in the background of monetary policy to relax,Cut interest rates to the bank、Trust financial products yields down,The attraction of the insurance products to rise gradually,Life insurance premium three、The fourth quarter is expected to continue to turn。On the other hand,Support policy last month,Including investment policy to cash is near,Accept insurance policy continued to open new markets。
从本报记者目前了解到的情况来看,13项保险投资新政超预期落地,首批4项新政将于7月底之前陆续出炉;上海个人税收递延型养老保险试点、养老以及医疗保险创新政策也将在下半年陆续落地。政策的逐步兑现,是保险股业绩及股价的重要推动因素。
From our correspondent at present to understand the situation,13 item insurance investment than expected new ground,The first four new measures will have come in before the end of July;Shanghai personal tax deferred model endowment insurance pilot、Pension and medical insurance innovation policy will also be born in succession in the second half。Policy of gradually to cash,It is insurance stocks and stock prices performance of an important driving factors。
值得一提的是,在持续降息背景下,保险净资产回升动力强劲。股债市场向好带来可供出售金融资产改善从而提升资本公积带来净资产回升,保险公司金融资产结构中,债券类资产占比在60%左右,上半年债券市场持续向好,尤其是6月以来连续两次降息,加快了债券类资产公允价值回升的幅度,极大地推动了保险公司净资产的增长。
It is,Under the background in the last cut interest rates,Insurance net assets back up strong power。A debt market up well bring a financial asset available for sale to improve so as to enhance the capital reserve bring net assets to bounce back,The insurance company financial assets structure,Bonds accounted for about 60% than in assets,The bond market hold up well in the first half,Especially since June, two successive to cut interest rates,To speed up the bond of the fair value of the assets back amplitude,Greatly promoted the growth of the net assets of the insurance company。
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