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浑水摸“俞”--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-20
马可佳
MaKeJia
7月19日早晨,当俞敏洪睁开眼,发现自己公司股票连续两日大跌近60%,并且质疑声迎面而来时,似乎还不明白是怎么回事。
The morning on July 19,,When Mr Yu open my eyes,Find yourself for two days company stock plunged nearly 60%,And when the oncoming misgivings about,Do not seem to understand what is the row。
事件已经酝酿成一场关乎“诚信”的丑闻。
The event already brewing into a about“integrity”scandal。
“你怎么看待诚信?”当《第一财经日报》记者就此向俞敏洪提问时,他直截了当地回答:“(诚信是)人类最重要的品质。”
“What do you think of good faith?”when《The first financial daily》Reporters offer Mr Yu when the questions,He flatly answer:“(Honesty is the)The most important of human quality。”
这一切又是因为美国做空机构浑水(Muddy Waters)公司。这家公司像一个从不落空的好猎手,这一次的新目标是新东方(EDU.NYSE)。
All this is because the United States do empty institutions and muddy water(Muddy Waters)The company。The company like a never lost good hunters,This time the new goal was new Oriental(EDU. NYSE)。
美东时间7月18日下午1点,正是北京时间深夜。当新东方教育科技集团董事长俞敏洪和其他工作人员还在睡梦中,浑水已经向所有的注册读者发布了一份有关新东方的调研报告。
Eastern time on July 18, at 1 PM,It is Beijing time late at night。When new Oriental education and technology group chairman Mr Yu and other officials also in sleep,Muddy water to all registered the reader has released a report on the new Oriental research report。
新东方股价因此暴跌35%,收报9.5美元,市值仅剩15亿美元,股价创5年新低。这是继周二新东方因SEC调查其VIE结构调整引发股价暴跌34.32%,股价两日大跌近60%。这究竟是俞敏洪的“小算盘”被人识破,还是新东方的美股股东反应过度、投机做空?
New Oriental share prices plunged 35%,At $9.5,With only $1.5 billion market value,Share price and low 5 years。This is the new Oriental for SEC investigation on Tuesday the VIE structure adjustment cause stock prices tumbled 34.32%,Share prices plunged nearly 60% two days。Whether it is Mr Yu“Obscured way”Someone who has been out,New Oriental beauty or shareholders overreaction、Speculative do empty?
对于浑水的质疑,7月19日晚间,新东方在公告中称,浑水的报告包含了很多错误的事实、误导性的猜测和恶意引导。
The question for muddy water,July 19,, night,New Oriental in a statement,The muddy water contains many wrong report the facts、Misleading speculation and malicious guide。
针对新东方的澄清,包括李开复、江南春等在内的中国企业家纷纷表示:支持新东方的据理澄清。浑水已经在分众的报告上栽了跟头,很难相信还有这么多投资者盲目听从他们。
According to the new Oriental clarification,Including li kaifu、JiangNaChun, Chinese entrepreneurs have said:Support the new Oriental according to Richard clarification。Muddy water in points of the report has been planted on the back,It is hard to believe that there are so many investors blind to listen to them。
昨晚美股开盘,到截稿时,新东方触底反弹,一度大涨30%。
Us stocks opened last night,Entry to,New Oriental a touch on the rebound,Once rose 30%。
“浑水”一战 “Muddy water”world
浑水公司,因连续揭发中国概念股造假丑闻而声名鹊起。和做空其他7家概念股的流程如出一辙,首先发布关于该公司的负面分析报告,造成股价大跌,吸引监管部门的注意,介入调查,后被投资人提起集体诉讼。
Muddy water company,For continuous exposed fraud scandal china-related shares campaigner。And do the other seven empty house the flow of the concept and prosperity,First released about the company's negative analysis report,Caused stocks tumbled,Attracted the attention of regulators,investigating,Investors filed a class action lawsuit after。
公司创办人布洛克表示:“人们一直在向我揭发这些公司,我只做了其中的十五分之一。如果研究持续地表明公司有问题,我们最后会做一个报告。我所有的研究都是独立进行的。”
Company founder brock said:“The people have been exposed to me these companies,I only do one of one over fifteen。If research suggests that the company has continued,We will finally make a report。I all of the research is independently。”
通常浑水公司会花大量的时间和精力调查一家可疑的在美上市公司,然后在网站上发布看空报告。这一次猎杀新东方浑水号称用了整整6个月的时间“潜伏”。
Usually muddy water company will spend a lot of time and energy to survey a suspicious of listed companies in the United States,Then see empty report posted on the website。This time hunting new Oriental is muddy water use exactly the time of 6 months“latent”。
在记者获取的这份浑水做空报告中,还详细讲述了浑水的调查过程,似乎质疑相当“有料”。从伪装成投资者与新东方的工作人员对话希望加盟,到各种财务数据和对比报表,甚至与新东方CFO在美国的对话细节,甚至一些“花边”和“八卦”新闻,都被收罗详尽。
In the muddy water for reporters to empty the report,But also detailed tells the investigation process of muddy water,Seems to question a“A material”。From investors and new Oriental disguised as a staff wants to join the conversation,To all kinds of financial data and comparative statements,Even in the United States and new Oriental CFO of dialogue details,Even some“lace”and“gossip”news,Are acquisition detailed。
最大的指责是关于“欺诈”,浑水认为,新东方上市后收入增长了392%,其中教学点增长了338%。CFO谢东萤曾经明确向浑水方面表示没有“特许加盟”一说,全部学校大约650个教学中心都是归新东方100%所有的,而有证据显示,新东方在中国十几个城市有特许加盟业务。
The biggest accused is about“fraud”,Muddy think,New Oriental listed revenue grew 392%,Which school increased by 338%。CFO XieDong fireflies had to clear muddy water said no“franchise”said,All the school about 650 teaching center is to all the new Oriental 100%,And there is evidence to show,New Oriental ten cities in China have franchise business。
此外,新东方声称2011财年营收2.077亿美元,但是企业营业税为零,浑水认为这很不合理。
In addition,New Oriental claimed that fiscal 2011 revenue of $207.7 million,But enterprise business tax is zero,Muddy water don't think it is very reasonable。
而审计机构德勤也出现在浑水的质疑中,浑水认为,德勤此前审计的中国公司频繁出事,包括多元环球水务(DGW.NYSE)、中国高速频道(CCME.NASDAQ)等,因此不值得信任。浑水此次质疑多达十数条,甚至质疑新东方的学校全部都是国有。
Audit institutions deloitte also appears in the muddy water in question,Muddy think,After the Chinese company audit deloitte frequently have an accident,Including multiple global water(DGW. The NYSE)、China's high-speed channel(CCME. The NASDAQ)etc,So are not to be trusted。The question as many as ten muddy water article,Even in the new Oriental school all questions are owned by the state。
尽管一些指责显得相当可笑和莫须有,比如,5年来没有发过一次股息的铁公鸡新东方突然派息;再比如,报告完结前遭受到了不明来源的大量DNS攻击。但很显然,新东方的美国股东十分认可浑水的这套逻辑,在报告发出后,不少机构投资者和个人第一时间抛售股票。
Although some blame appear quite ridiculous and unwarranted,For example,5 years did not send a dividend miser new Oriental suddenly dividends;For another example,The report from the end of an unknown source of DNS attack。But obviously,New Oriental American shareholders approved the very muddy water this logical,After report is issued,Many institutional investors and personal first time selling stock。
新东方的反击 New Oriental counterattack
或许是浑水的报告太过于惊人,与7月18日俞敏洪与新东方的沉默应对相反。7月19日下午,在位于北京海淀区的新东方大厦会议室,俞敏洪与新东方教育科技集团副总裁兼公共关系部主任冈栋俊,小范围就此事对媒体做出回应。
Perhaps is the report of the muddy water too surprising,And on July 18, Mr Yu and new Oriental silence deal with the opposite。July 19 afternoon,In the new Oriental building is located in Beijing's haidian district conference room,Mr Yu new Oriental education and technology group and the vice President and director of public relations department Oregon house pretty,Small range of media on the matter to respond。
俞敏洪说:“目前新东方的管理与经营处于正常轨道,导致新东方17日股价下跌的原因不是经营问题,主要是受收到SEC关于新东方VIE结构调整调查函件影响,而18日股价下跌的原因,则是因为国际做空机构浑水公司发布的针对新东方的质疑报告。”
Mr Yu says:“At present the management and operation in the new Oriental normal track,Lead to new Oriental 17, the reason is not falling share prices business problems,Main is received by the SEC about new Oriental VIE structure adjustment survey correspondence influence,And 18, the cause of falling share prices,It is because of the international institutions do empty muddy water by new Oriental's question to report。”
“因为新东方正在积极配合SEC进行调查,因此不便透露更多相关进展。”俞敏洪这样表示,但对于浑水公司的诸多指责,俞敏洪给予了直接反击。
“Because the new Oriental is actively cooperate with SEC investigation,So not divulged more related progress。”Mr Yu said,But for many accused of muddy water company,Mr Yu gave direct counterattack。
关于浑水公司有关新东方存在“特许加盟”的质疑,俞敏洪表示,目前国内凡是冠以新东方品牌的学校,全部是新东方直营的;此外,新东方旗下子品牌泡泡少儿教育在全国授权了19家加盟学校,满天星品牌授权了2家加盟学校。这21家加盟学校,全部仅授权使用泡泡少儿和满天星品牌,而不是授权使用新东方品牌。
Muddy water company about the new Oriental exist“franchise”Questioning of the,Mr Yu says,The current domestic brand new Oriental school who dubbed the,All is one of the new Oriental school;In addition,New Oriental's son in the national children's education brand bubbles authorized the 19 to join the school,All over the sky star brand licensing the two join the school。The 21 home to join the school,Only authorized the use of all children's and all over the sky star brand bubbles,Not authorized the use of new Oriental brand。
俞敏洪强调,除加盟费用外,这些加盟学校自身的营业收入从未反映在新东方综合财务报表。此外,在新东方综合财报中公布的涉及新东方学校数量、教学中心数量及注册学生人数等信息中,均不包含这21家加盟学校。
Mr Yu emphasize,In addition to join the fees,These to join the school's own business income never reflected in new Oriental comprehensive financial statements。In addition,In the new Oriental comprehensive results published in new Oriental school number involved、Teaching center quantity and the number of students enrolled in the information,All do not contain the 21 home to join the school。
在19日晚间的公告中,新东方再次强调,截至2012年5月31日,664间新东方品牌的学校完全属于新东方。根据美国会计师准则,新东方在2010财年和2011财年中,经认证的来自这些合作机构的许可和培训费用产生的收入分别共计为3.5万美元和24.9万美元,分别占当时财年总收入的 0.009%和0.045%。
In 19, the bulletin of the night,New Oriental again,By the end of 2012 on May 31,New Oriental school between 664 brand new Oriental completely belong to。According to the accounting standards,New Oriental in fiscal 2010 and fiscal 2011,After the authentication from these cooperation agency permission and training fee income generated from total respectively for $35000 and $249000,At the time of fiscal revenue respectively 0.009% and 0.045%。
对于浑水公司对新东方税收方面的质疑,俞敏洪表示,新东方一直是一个遵纪守法的公司,多年来一直是重点纳税大户,一直在按照国家相关政策法规缴纳各种税费。
Muddy water company for new Oriental taxes to the question,Mr Yu says,New Oriental school is an organization,For many years has been is the key large taxpayer,Have been in accordance with the relevant national policies and regulations pay all sorts of taxes。
关于VIE股权结构调整问题,俞敏洪再次强调,不涉及公司管理层面。新东方此次的VIE结构调整对新东方上市公司股东结构没有影响。
Equity structure adjustment problems about VIE,Mr Yu again,Do not involve the company management level。New Oriental VIE structure adjustment of the shareholders of a listed company of new Oriental structure have no effect。
但对中国公司VIE股权结构的问题,却引发很多人的反思。新东方联合创始人徐小平在微博上表示:VIE是中国经济历程中特殊结构。在国际资本市场上市的公司,很多公司都是这种脆弱的VIE结构。支持中国企业做强做大,就是支持中国国家繁荣富强。政府应该调整政策,彻底解决这个问题。三十多年中国经济丰硕的成果,不能继续被这种脆弱的体制遏制,任其在信任与法律缺失的凄风苦雨中飘零。
But for China company VIE ownership structure,But cause a lot of people thinking。New Oriental co-founder XuXiaoPing in micro blog says:In the course of China's economic VIE is special structure。In the international capital market of the listed company,Many companies is this fragile VIE structure。Support China's enterprise bigger,Is the support country strong and prosperous China。The government should adjust the policy,The thorough settlement of this issue。Thirty years China's economic great achievements,Can't continue to be this fragile system contained,Let the trust and the lack of law in QiFengGuYu faded and fallen in。
美国投资者看空中国 American investors see empty China
在浑水对新东方的报告中,一些并非“空穴来风”。
In the new Oriental's report of muddy water,Some are not“smoke”。
比如关于新东方调整VIE的质疑,清理其他10个股东股份,调整并巩固VIE结构,通过无对价协议将股权100%转移到俞敏洪控制的实体下。
Such as new Oriental adjustment VIE queries,Clean up the other 10 shareholders shares,Adjust and consolidate VIE structure,Through the price agreement will be 100% equity transfer to Mr Yu control of the entity。
虽然俞敏洪表示这一举动是为股东利益着想,但这一事件发生前,公众并不知情。美国投资者普遍认为,中国概念股VIE结构缺乏透明度。虽未必违规,但确有风险。
Although Mr Yu says the move is for the shareholder interests in mind,But the incident occurred,Public is not informed。American investors generally thought,China-related shares VIE structure lack of transparency。Is not necessarily illegal,But the risk is。
一位不愿透露姓名的投资行业人士也指出,经过几年的发展,新东方的增长速度已经不如以前,因此,新东方一直希望在中小学教育、少儿英语方面有所突破。新东方旗下子品牌泡泡少儿教育正是针对这一高速增长的市场。
One does not wish to disclose the name of the person also pointed out that the investment industry,After years of development,The new Oriental has been growing faster than before,so,New Oriental education in primary and secondary schools, always hope、Children's English a breakthrough。New Oriental's children's education is son brand bubbles in the growth of the market。
而另一些指责则显得有些无中生有。比如浑水认为新东方的毛利率过高,学而思教育集团(TAL Education Group)和安博教育(Ambow Education)也存在一些危险的信号。对于财报业绩,浑水非常信任的上市公司是学大教育(XUE.NYSE)。学大教育财报的总毛利率仅为29.5%。
And some other accused appears some much ado about nothing。For example that the new Oriental muddy water high profit margins,Learning without thought education group(TAL Education Group)And ember education(Ambow Education)There are also some dangerous signal。For earnings performance,Muddy water of the listed company is very trust learn big education(XUE. NYSE)。Learn the total gross margin large education earnings is only 29.5%。
事实上,学大教育整体利润一直低于新东方等同类学校,业内人士指出,学大教育的利润率之所以不如新东方等竞争对手,主要是其“一对一”的业务模式成本投入大,拉低了利润水平,其模式与新东方等大班授课的方式截然不同。
In fact,Learn big education overall profit has been below new Oriental similar school, etc,Industry insiders point,Learn the profit margins are not big education such as new Oriental rivals,Is the main“one-on-one”The business model great input costs,Down the profit level,The pattern and new Oriental class teaching and fashion。
当然,绝大多数市场做空者的初衷并不是为了净化市场,而是为了从中牟利。浑水公司所有的报告,首句都是“您应该认识到使用浑水研究的风险……浑水及其客户和雇员,在出版这个报告之时,已经对所述股票采取了做空策略,并将从股票下跌中获利”。
Of course,Most market the original intent of the empty and not to purify the market,But in order to profit from。Muddy water all the company's report,First sentence is“You should know to use the risk of study muddy water......Muddy water and its customers and employees,In the report published,In this stock has taken do empty strategy,And will benefit from the stock fell”。
上述投资人士分析称,真正让投资者恐慌的,是市场原因。中国概念股高速增长的时期已经过去,所以一旦出现风吹草动,机构投资者宁可信其有。
The above investment analysts say,Real let investors panic,Is market reason。High-speed growth period of china-related shares have in the past,So once appear happens,Institutional investors would rather have the letter。
新东方表示,董事会已经获悉浑水机构所做的指责,并将考虑和决定采取必要的措施,来回应浑水机构的指控。
New Oriental said,The board of directors has learned that muddy institutions do accused,And will consider and decided to take the necessary measures,Muddy water agencies responded to charges。
俞敏洪则称,在SEC关于VIE调整的调查结束前,新东方无法回购股票。此外,新东方也没有私有化计划。插图/苏益
Mr Yu said the,In the SEC about the investigation of the VIE adjustment before the end,New Oriental can't buy back shares。In addition,New Oriental and no privatization plans。Illustrations/SuYi
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