张斌 刘晓景

Mr. Zhang bin LiuXiaoJing

　　虽然上一周人民币对美元一直在升值，但专程从加拿大回来的刘云（化名）还是坚持要把位于北京东直门的4套房子卖掉。“我认识的国内有不少人在往外转移资产，都感觉人民币资产不是很安全，预期很不好。”

Although a week on the dollar has been in appreciate，But here just come back from Canada's liu yun（aliases）Still insisted that is located in Beijing dongzhimen four houses sold。“I know there are many people in China to the transfer of assets，Feel the yuan assets is not very safe，Expected very bad。”

　　对人民币升值的预期一旦转向，资金便开始蠢蠢欲动。

For the yuan to appreciate once expected to，Funds began to move。

　　在刚刚过去的二季度，人民币对美元贬值明显，0.88%的贬值幅度创下了自1994年以来最大值。这基本宣告人民币对美元的趋势只有“升值”两个字的时代结束。

In just the past two quarters，The yuan to the dollar obvious，0.88% of the depreciation in the range since 1994 maximum。The basic trend of the yuan against the dollar that only“appreciation”Two word of era is over。

　　7月20日，人民币对美元中间价报6.3112,与上一交易日相比上升14个基点,连续第五日上升。但一位市场交易员反映：“市场对人民币升值预期仍然减弱，是央行仍通过维持较高中间价的方式抑制人民币贬值预期。最近外汇储备的下降和央行在操作层面上卖美元、买人民币不无关系。”

July 20,，The yuan to the middle price for $6.3112,And the previous day rise than 14 basis points,The fifth day up。But a market traders reflect：“To market the RMB appreciation still weakened，The central bank is still high by maintaining the middle price way efforts to restrain the yuan depreciation expectations。Recent foreign exchange reserves decline and operation platform should face the central bank sold dollars、Buy the yuan was related。”

　　在人民币贬值预期下，资本流出的现象不排除未来会有加大的可能。宏源证券(000562,股吧)固定收益总部首席分析师范为(博客,微博)在最新的一份研究材料《后危机时代的2012：汇率波动视角下的资产配置》中提醒投资者：“未来汇率波动对国内资产价格的影响将会更加显著，应更重视人民币汇率的波动风险。”

In the yuan--under the expected，Capital outflow phenomenon not rule out the possibility of future there will be increasing。Hongyuan securities(000562,Shares it)Fixed income headquarters chief analysis for teachers(blog,Micro bo)In the latest a study materials《After the age of the crisis of 2012：Under the perspective of exchange rate fluctuations of asset allocation》Reminding investors in：“The future exchange rate fluctuations on the influence of the domestic asset prices will be even more significant，Should pay more attention to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations。”

　　这个危险时刻，或许是2013年。

The danger，Perhaps it is 2013 years。

　　“逃走”的资本 “escape”capital

　　上次见到刘云是在2009年底，那时他刚回到中国，手里有一些钱，在加拿大呆了6年的他准备回国发展。

Last saw liu yun is at the end of 2009，At that time he had just come back to China，There are some money in his hand，In Canada for six years he is ready to return to country development。

　　一时之间找不到好的项目，刘云曾在东直门附近买了8套房子，都在50~55平方米左右的一居室，商住两用、便于出租，价格都在120万左右。

Between a find a good project，In the near LiuYunCeng dongzhimen bought 8 sets of house，In 50 to 55 square metre of a bedroom，Business stay in amphibious、Easy to rent，Prices are at about 1.2 million。

　　这是2009年12月到2010年2月之间的事情。

This is December 2009 to February 2010 of the things between。

　　在北京“晃荡”了将近一年左右，到2011年年初的时候，刘云没有找到太好的投资机会，又回到了加拿大，房子就这样一直出租着。

In Beijing“Flap about”For nearly a year，At the beginning of the year to 2011，Liu yun didn't find too good investment opportunities，And back to Canada，House so had been hired。

　　“其实房子的收益率是不错的，每套房子每月的出租价格在4500元上下浮动，我在美国的房子同样大小租不到这个价格，还要交地税。而且国内的房子还在升值。”刘云说，“但是我还是选择先卖掉一些。”

“In fact the yield on the house is good，Each house monthly rental prices in the 4500 yuan fluctuate，I'm in the U.S. house to rent the same size less than the price，Pay land tax。And the house is still in domestic appreciation。”Liu yun said，“But I still choose to sell some。”

　　今年6月初，刘云就让国内的房屋中介挂出了自己卖房信息。“第一是国内的房价又涨起来了；其次，我感觉将资产放在国内很不安全。先卖掉一半吧，剩下的看看再说，我最后在国内留一套房子就行了。”刘云说：“我认识的国内有不少人在往外转移资产，都感觉人民币资产不是很安全，预期很不好。”

In early June，Let the house agency liu yun domestic put up their selling information。“The first is the house prices have rise；second，I feel will assets in domestic unsafe。To sell half it，The rest of the look around first，I finally in domestic leave a house will do。”Liu yun said：“I know there are many people in China to the transfer of assets，Feel the yuan assets is not very safe，Expected very bad。”

　　不看好人民币的人越来越多，在金融机构工作的人感受颇为明显。

Do not expect the yuan more and more people，In financial institutions people feel quite obvious work。

　　北京安贞桥附近一家建设银行(601939,股吧)的柜台员工反映：“目前美元很紧张，这两天日换2000美元以上都需要预约了。”

Bejing anzhen bridge a nearby construction bank(601939,Shares it)The counter of the staff reflect：“The us is very nervous，The sun in two more than $2000 all need to make an appointment。”

　　“我们去年在香港推的一款人民币计价的保险产品，很好卖，但今年效益并不好。”一家保险公司产品经理说，“一些外资银行的人反映，现在美元的理财产品很热卖。”

“We in Hong Kong last year push a yuan-denominated insurance products，Sell well，But this year the benefit was not good。”An insurance company product manager said，“Some foreign bank of respondents，Now the financial product sells a dollar。”

　　5、6月份高企的顺差和上半年中国对外直接投资的大幅增长表明“抛弃人民币，美元备受追捧”的现象在企业层面反映得更为明显。

5、June high surplus and foreign direct investment in the first half of the year, a significant increase in the show“Abandon the yuan，Popular $”Phenomenon in enterprise level to reflect is more obvious。

　　“经常项目下的贸易、收益和经常转移都可能是热钱流出的典型做法，海外并购正在炙手可热。”一位不愿透露姓名的人士说，“尤其一些央企下属的二三级企业，海外并购的特别多。”

“Under the current account trade、Income and often transfer may be hot money comes out of the typical way，Overseas mergers and acquisitions are hot。”One does not wish to be named, said a person，“Especially some scholars from renmin affiliate two level 3 enterprise，The special foreign acquisitions。”

　　较为典型的做法是：中、外方合作，以高报外方实物投资价值或中方替外方垫付投资资金的方式，通过设立合资企业向境外转移境内资产或权益。同时，由于一些社会中介机构为外商投资企业虚假验资，产生外商直接投资高报。这些虚增投资最终都会以利润汇回或清盘形式要求换汇汇出，从而形成迂回的资本外流。

It is typical：in、Foreign cooperation，For the foreign investment in high value or real Chinese foreign investment funds for advances the way，By setting up a joint venture outside the territory to transfer assets or rights and interests。At the same time，Because of some social intermediary organization for foreign investment enterprise false capital verification，Produce foreign direct investment for high。These empty to add investment will finally converted into liquidation or to profits remitted currency exchange request form，So as to form the circuitous capital outflows。

　　商务部日前发布的数据显示：2012年1~6月份，中国境内投资者共对全球116个国家和地区的2163家境外企业进行了直接投资，累计实现非金融类直接投资（下同）354.2亿美元，同比增长48.2%。其中，通过并购方式实现的直接投资118亿美元，占中国同期投资总额的33.3%。

The ministry of commerce to released figures show：2012 1 to 6 months，Chinese investors with the global 116 countries and regions on the 2163 enterprises direct investment，Cumulative realize non-financial sectors direct investment（Hereinafter the same）$35.42 billion，Year-on-year growth of 48.2%。Among them，Through the merger of the realization of the way direct investment of $11.8 billion，China accounts for 33.3% of the total amount of investment in the same period。

　　另外，通过QDII渠道投资海外资本市场，是资金流入海外市场的合法渠道。然而，通过购买具有QDII资格的金融机构未使用的投资额度，热钱也可通过该渠道流出中国。

In addition，Through the QDII channel investment overseas capital market，Is capital into overseas markets legal channels。however，Through the buy QDII qualification with financial institutions not use investment amount，Hot money also through this channel outflow China。

　　最后一种在资本项下，资金流出的方式是通过银行的渠道将资金转移。所谓的银行渠道即利用跨境银行的一些特殊服务过境。比如“内保外贷”或者“内存外贷”。

Finally a kind of capital，Funds out of the way through the channel is bank funds。The so-called bank channel is using cross-border bank some special service transit。For example“BaoWai loans in”or“Memory the loan”。

　　央行最新的数据印证了种种资本流出的迹象。

The central bank of the latest data confirm all signs of capital outflow。

　　2012年一季度末中国外汇储备为3.305万亿美元，第二季度末中国的外汇储备为3.24万亿美元，整个二季度外储减少了650亿美元。但是第二季度三个月均是贸易顺差：4月份184亿美元，5月份186亿美元，6月份317亿美元，合计顺差687亿美元。

In 2012, at the end of the quarter, China's foreign exchange reserves for 3.305 trillion dollars，At the end of the second quarter of China's foreign exchange reserves for 3.24 trillion dollars，The second quarter the store fell by $65 billion。But the second quarter three standard is the trade surplus：April 18.4 billion dollars，$18.6 billion in May，June 31.7 billion dollars，Total surplus of $68.7 billion。

　　“再加上今年二季度近300亿美元的外商直接投资流入，这是否已经说明热钱资金继续外流？规模在1000亿美元以上。”范为推算。

“Add in the second quarter of this year nearly $30 billion of foreign direct investment inflows，Whether this has proved hot money funds to drain？The scale in the more than $100 billion。”Van for calculated。

　　贬值风险 Devaluation risk

　　国内资本的“外逃”，显示出人民币汇率贬值风险在加大。

Domestic capital“flight”，Show the RMB exchange rate risk devaluation increase。

　　范为在上述研究中提醒投资者：“这将使得未来国内的资产配置不得不更多地考虑内外部资金的流动，以及汇率的波动。”

Van in the same study for reminding investors：“This will make the future of domestic asset allocation had to think more about the internal and external capital flows，And because of the fluctuation of exchange rate。”

　　范为认为根据货币区总财富理论、购买力平价、汇兑心理学、汇率目标区理论，均表明人民币已经不再被低估。

Van for according to general wealth currency theory、Purchasing power parity、Exchange psychology、Exchange rate target zone theory，Indicate that the yuan is no longer be underestimated。

　　以往西方让中国人民币升值的两大理由：一是中国常年保持高贸易顺差；一是中国低廉劳动力所带来的产品不正当竞争。实际上这两点的根源在于国家过去的“出口导向政策”以及过去“中国人真的不值钱”。但这两点目前都有所变化，因此实际上人民币升值的基础的确是没有了。

Ever let the yuan to appreciate Chinese west two big reasons：China is a perennial keep high trade surplus；One is Chinese rural labor brought about by the product unfair competition。In fact the two root lies in the old country“Export oriented policy”And past“Chinese people don't really valuable”。But the two are changing，Hence, the foundation of the appreciation of the renminbi is indeed no......。

　　“我们大胆判断人民币单边升值的历史已成过去。”范为说。

“We judge a revaluation of the renminbi bold unilateral history has become the past。”Van for said。

　　光大证券(601788,股吧)的一份报告虽然不认同这种均衡是中长期状态，但也认为人民币对美元汇率已经达到短期均衡水平，其原因是：“首先，远期汇率市场人民币对美元贬值预期明显；其次，现汇市场上有明显的人民币抛售压力；第三，人民银行目前正在卖出外汇以支撑人民币汇率。”“当前，人民币对美元贬值主要是受到两国经济前景以及货币政策走向等因素影响。”FX168财经集团高级金融分析师魏军说。

Everbright securities(601788,Shares it)A report though not agree with this kind of equilibrium is long-term state，But also think the yuan to the dollar exchange rate has reached short-term balanced level，The reason for this is：“first，The forward rate market the yuan to the dollar expected obvious；second，Spot market are clearly RMB selling pressure；The third，The people's bank is currently selling foreign exchange to support the exchange rate of the yuan。”“The current，The yuan to the dollar mainly by the two countries economic outlook and monetary policy orientation, and other factors。”FX168 financial group senior financial analysts WeiJun said。

　　由于欧债危机引起的外部需求萎缩，使中国出口遭受严峻考验，同时，经济结构调整、培育新的经济增长点和扩大内需都需要假以时日，短期内经济增速回落已不是悬念。

As the debt crisis caused by external demand to atrophy，Make China's export suffered serious test，At the same time，Economic structure adjustment、Cultivating new economic growth point and expanding domestic demand all need over time，The short term economic growth fell back already not suspense。

　　货币政策层面，今年4月16日，中国人民银行将人民币与美元日交易波幅从原来的0.5%扩大至1%。这是自2010年7月重启汇改以来，人民币汇率制度改革的重要措施。波幅的扩大，预示着人民币摆脱了单边升值趋势，开始进入双向波动时代。而在中国经济进入增长放缓的背景下，反映中国购买力的人民币必然出现市场预期分化。

Monetary policy aspect，This April 16,，The people's bank of China will the yuan to the dollar trading band, from the original 0.5% to expand 1%。This is from July to restart since yuan reform，The reform of the RMB exchange rate system important measures。Volatility expansion of，Indicates the RMB appreciation from unilateral trend，Began to enter into the two-way fluctuation era。And in China's economic growth slowed in the background，The buying power of reflecting China's yuan is inevitable market expectations differentiation。

　　整个一季度，人民币对美元汇率58个交易日中，29个交易日升值，29个交易日贬值。而刚刚过去的二季度，人民币真的贬值了，成为自1994年以来人民币汇率跌幅最大的一个季度。

The entire quarter，The yuan to the dollar exchange rate 58 trading day，29 trading day to rise，29 trading day depreciation。And just the past two quarters，RMB really fallen，Become since 1994 RMB exchange rate fell one of the biggest quarterly。

　　这些因素都支持人民币继续贬值，但贬值空间有限。

These factors all support the yuan continue to go down in value，But the limited space devaluation。

　　7月19日人民币对美元中间价报6.3126，与上一交易日(6.3140)相比继续上升14个基点，连续第四日上升。本周人民币在岸即期汇率以及离岸即期汇率持平，人民币贬值预期也有所收窄。但一位市场交易员反映：“市场对人民币升值预期仍趋弱，是央行仍通过维持较高中间价的方式抑制人民币贬值预期。这和最近外汇储备的下降和央行在操作层面上卖美元、买人民币不无关系。”

July 19,, the yuan to the middle price for $6.3126，And a trading day(6.3140)Continue to rise compared 14 basis points，For the fourth consecutive day to rise。This week the spot exchange rate and offshore yuan bet at the spot exchange rate，The depreciation of RMB expected to narrow。But a market traders reflect：“To market the RMB appreciation still is weak，The central bank is still high by maintaining the middle price way efforts to restrain the yuan depreciation expectations。The foreign exchange reserves and the recent decline and central bank in the face of operation platform should sell dollars、Buy the yuan was related。”

　　“我们毕竟还有3万多亿的外汇储备，这是我们能够维持当前汇率稳定的最重要因素，在整个二季度，金砖四国的其他经济体货币印度卢比、俄罗斯卢布、巴西雷亚尔对美元的汇率均出现了较大幅度贬值。”范为说，“所以一段时间内人民币并不会大幅贬值。”

“After all, we have more than $30000 foreign exchange reserves，This is the best we can to maintain the current exchange rate stability is the most important factors，In the second quarter，The four gold ingot other economies monetary India rupees、Russian rubles、Brazil reais's exchange rate against the dollar all appear a large appreciation。”Van for said，“So within a period of time will not be depreciated yuan。”

　　招商银行(600036,股吧)总行金融市场部分析师刘东亮测算，美元对人民币，全年来看上方6.3是个高点，突破6.3的难度非常大。而6.4则是一个重要的心理关口。

China merchants bank(600036,Shares it)Financial analysts LiuDongLiang Marketing Department head office estimates，Of RMB $，See 6.3 is a high above all year，The difficulty of the broken 6.3 is very big。And 6.4 is an important psychological barrier。

　　“我觉得央行也会把底线放在6.4，只要国内国际的情况不出现恶化的话，6.4是阶段性低点，跌破6.4的可能性不大，但是如果欧洲情况出现了超预期恶化，或者国内数据超预期的下行，跌破6.4的可能性还是有的。”刘东亮说。

“I think the central bank will also bottom line in 6.4，As long as the domestic and international situation worsened not words，6.4 is phased low，Fell below 6.4 is unlikely，But if Europe there have been worse than expected，Or the domestic data super expected to the downside，The possibility of below 6.4 or some。”LiuDongLiang said。

　　危险时刻？ Dangerous moment？

　　但是这次人民币的贬值，投资者或许要做好长期的思想准备。

But this time the depreciation of the RMB，Investors may want to do long-term mental preparation。

　　魏军分析，首先，从国内情况来看，中国经济仍未触底，中国央行进一步放松货币政策的概率极高。并且，境外资本流出也将给人民币带来持续的贬值压力。其次，美联储年内推出第三轮量化宽松的概率较低，加之欧洲主权债务危机影响，美元预计将受到更多投资者追捧。因此，人民币对美元的贬值仍将延续。

WeiJun analysis，first，From domestic situation，China's economy is still not hit bottom，China's central bank monetary policy further relax the probability is extremely high。and，Foreign capital outflow will give for the decline in the value of the yuan to bring pressure。second，The federal reserve launched years third round of quantitative loose low probability，Together with the European sovereign debt crisis，Dollars is expected to receive more investors demand。so，Of the yuan against the dollar devaluation will still continue。

　　范为的预测则更为长远些。

Van for prediction is more long-term some。

　　他认为，中国实体经济难以保持过去的高增长，从经济学角度来看，它会进入一个次高阶段。根据“罗斯托经济增长六阶段”理论，经济在经过高速增长阶段之后，必然会进入次高。比如之前是10%的增速，未来可能是7%~8%。经济增速慢下来之后，实体经济对货币的吸引力就会相对流失掉、缩小。

He thinks，China's economic entity that are difficult to maintain the past high growth，From an economic perspective，It will enter a next to the stage。According to“Rostow was six stages of economic growth”theory，Economic growth stage after after，Will into the next。For example is the rate of growth of 10% before，The future may be 7% ~ 8%。After a slow down economic growth，The entity economy on currency appeal will be relatively losing、narrow。

　　其次，贸易项下的盈余倒不是让人担心的，但是资本项下的放开正在加快，人民币的国际化比大家预想的要快。

second，Under the trade surplus not that people worry about，But capital under the release is accelerating，RMB internationalization of than everyone expected soon。

　　“目前，管制的约束是越来越弱，包括原来是强制结算发现没什么用，就干脆停掉。未来如果资本项放开的话，内外部资金的流动会更加频繁。”他说。

“At present，Control constraints are more and more weak，Includes the original is mandatory settlement found nothing to use，Simply stop。The future if capital of words let go，Internal and external capital flow more frequent。”He said。

　　最危险的时刻，范为判断会是中国M2上升至100万亿人民币（目前是92万亿人民币）之时。而这期间，人民币的走势将在较高的M2和充足的外储这两大因素决定下波动。

The moment of maximum danger，Van to judge it can be China M2 rose to 100 trillion RMB（At present is 92 trillion RMB）of。But this period，The trend of the RMB will be at higher M2 and enough outside the two major factors determine reservoirs under fluctuations。

　　范为说：“从现在的情况来看，M2上升到100万亿人民币的时刻比以前预期的会早些，大概在2013年。”

Van for said：“From the current situation，M2 rose to 100 trillion RMB moments earlier expected than before，About in the year 2013。”

　　应对 Deal with

　　那么，怎样才能阻止人民币贬值，范为给出了一个“药方”——不要再把货币放入房地产资产，而是引入农村，将农村资产货币化。

so，How can we stop the depreciation of RMB，Van for a given“prescription”-not to put money into real estate assets，But into rural，Rural assets will be changed。

　　他说，未来如果不希望资本外流、人民币贬值，国内就必须有实物资产吸纳这些货币。过去的十年，承担这个角色的是房地产资产，中途有股票市场的资产来吸纳货币，但后来股市崩盘。如果继续用房地产资产来吸纳货币，那未来房地产市场也可能崩盘，对市场的冲击会很大，同时也会造成资本外流，从而对汇率产生重大影响。

He said，The future if don't want capital outflow、Yuan depreciation，Home is must have the physical assets absorb these currency。The past ten years，Assume the role is real estate assets，Midway have the stock market to absorb the assets of the currency，But then the stock market crashed。If continue to use the real estate assets to absorb currency，The future real estate markets may also crashed，The impact on the market will be very big，At the same time also can cause capital outflow，So as to have great influence on the exchange rate。

　　正略钧策管理咨询合伙人王丹青说：“如果宏观调控政策刺破房地产行业的泡沫，人民币将迎来灾难性的巨大贬值压力，虽然这是一种极端现象。”“现在来看比较可行的是用农村资产来吸纳这些货币，中国农村市场非常广阔，且大量的资产还没有货币化，这是中国经济的未来。”范为说，“现在搞城镇化，如果搞得好的话，侧重于发展小城镇，不仅有利于缓解城市化进程所产生的负面影响，同时也可以保证货币不至于产生"流动性陷阱"，从而保证人民币的币值稳定。”

Is slightly jun management consulting partner for WangDanQing said：“If the macroeconomic regulation and control policy pierced the real estate bubble，The yuan will have disastrous great depreciation pressure，Although this is a kind of extreme phenomenon。”“Now come to a feasible in rural areas is assets to absorb these currency，China's rural market are very wide，And a lot of assets has not changed，This is the future of China's economy。”Van for said，“Now make the urbanization，If we play our CARDS right，Focus on the development of small towns，Not only can help to alleviate the urbanization process of the negative effect，At the same time also can ensure that money will not produce"Liquidity trap"，In order to ensure that the value of its currency RMB stable。”