本报记者 王继高

Our correspondent WangJiGao

　　继连续两个 交易日下跌后，沪指7月23日再次下跌1.26%，并创出近半年以来的新低。调查显示，在对后市的看法上，私募基金普遍较为谨慎；市场在震荡中寻找方向，近期弱市格局恐将持续。

After two consecutive trading day after the fall，July 23, HuZhi 1.26% drop，And since nearly half a year of creating new lows。survey，In the view of market outlook，Private equity funds generally more prudent；The market for direction in shock，The recent weak city pattern will continue to fear。

　私募基金谨慎看待后市 Private equity fund is treated with caution

　　“虽然货币政策不断放松，但从市场的反应来看，通过降息、降低存款准备金率提振市场信心的效果在明显下降，信贷需求持续不振，投资者风险偏好也在不断调低，这也意味着对于A股市场短期走势的判断，在充分考虑货币政策进一步放松预期的同时，还需要新的因素加以刺激，中国经济和A股市场依然处于艰难探底阶段。”天弘基金高级策略分析师刘佳章接受本报记者采访时称。

“Although monetary policy more relaxed，But from the reaction to the market，Through the rate cut、Reduce the deposit reserve rate boost confidence in the effect to decline significantly，Credit demand slump continued，Investors also rising risk preference low，This also means that for A share market short-term movements judgment，In full consideration of the monetary policy further relax expected at the same time，Need to stimulate new factors，China's economy and A share market is still A difficult stage of exploration。”Day hong fund senior strategy analysts LiuJiaZhang accept our reporter said interview。

　　私募排排网的调查显示，在对后市的看法上，私募基金普遍较为谨慎。有私募认为目前已经是钻石底，下跌空间已经不大，是买入成长股的绝佳机会；有的则认为远没到底，在小幅反弹后仍会继续向下寻求支撑，跌破2100点只是时间上的问题，悲观者甚至看到1500点，总体来说观望气氛较为浓厚，大部分在减仓，等待市场确认底部。

Private survey row by row nets，In the view of market outlook，Private equity funds generally more prudent。A private think is the bottom of the diamond，Fall is already small space，Is an excellent chance to buy growth stock；Others believe that far didn't exactly，After a modest recovery in still can continue to seek support downward，Below 2100 points is only a matter of time，A pessimist sees a calamity even see 1500 points，Overall look relatively strong atmosphere，Most of the decrease a storehouse，Waiting for the market confirm that。

　　此外，根据好买基金研究中心的私募调查问卷，对未来一个月股指走势持乐观态度的私募占比从5月的45.45%骤降至本月的14.29%，降低了约31个百分点，悲观情绪随着大盘的走低愈来愈浓。

In addition，According to the good buy fund research center of private questionnaire，A month for the future trend of stock index optimism of the private than from 45.45% in May to 14.29% this month plunged，Down about 31%，Pessimism as grail weakness more and more strong。

　　弱势或将持续 Weak or will last

　　“面对国内经济增长的持续下滑以及欧债危机的不断蔓延，A股投资者悲观情绪仍挥之不去，市场在震荡中寻求方向，近期弱市格局恐持续。”好买基金研究中心分析称，当前市场的下行很大程度上源自市场对经济持续下滑的担忧，虽然这种担忧已经提前反映到了去年下半年的市场行情中，但二季度GDP破8等不佳的经济数据持续打击了投资者的乐观情绪。

“To face the national economic growth continued decline and the debt crisis spreads，A shares investor pessimism still linger，The market for direction in shock，The recent weak city pattern for terrorists。”Good buy fund research center analysis says，The current market downline largely from market to the economic decline concerns，Although this concern has reflected in the second half of last year in advance to the market，But the second quarter GDP 8, the poor economic data on the offensive against the investor optimism。

　　上半年券商周策略榜眼——广州证券的首席策略分析师袁季对记者称，目前市场仍处于熊牛交替中的胶着期，战略大反攻的条件依然没有成熟。在去库存并不彻底的情况下，整体经济活力暂不支持大级别的行情，市场仍需消化经济减速带来的压力。随着各项调控措施的落实，负利率“转正”意味着成效显现，也意味着调控政策转向中性和宽松的条件逐渐成熟，流动性收紧的趋势将逐步改变并有阶段性宽松的可能。

In the first half BangYan-guangzhou brokers weeks strategy of securities chief strategy YuanJi analysts to reporters said，At present the market is still in the call alternate stalemate period，Strategic counter-offensive condition still is not large mature。In the inventory is not completely to the case，Overall economic vitality are not support a large level of market，The market is still need to digest the stress of the economic slowdown。With the implementation of the measures，Socan lend“becomes”Means that results revealed，Also means control policies to neutral and loose conditions gradually mature，The trend will gradually tightened up liquidity and phased loose change is possible。

　　袁季认为，随着各项具体政策措施的落实，预期“稳增长”的作用将对经济起到提振作用，市场也将反馈积极预期。三季度仍有超跌反弹的机会，但对行情性质的看法一如年初：战术反击，转势还需要时间，投资者既需要信心，也需要耐心。整体而言，投资者需要重视估值、尊重趋势，中短期而言，还需要重视政策预调微调的积极预期。

YuanJi think，With the implementation of the specific policy measures，expected“Steady growth”Role will play with rallied on the economy，The market will also feedback positive expectations。There are still three quarters of the fall of the chance to rebound，But for the nature of the market as early on：Tactics against，Turn the potential need time，Investors need to have both confidence，Also need patience。overall，Investors need to pay attention to valuations、Respect trend，For short-term，Also needs to pay attention to fine-tune the positive expected policy under attack。

　　机会何在 What chance

　　在近期股价屡创新低的弱市行情下，投资者应如何操作？上半年股票型基金冠军、景顺长城核心竞争力基金经理余广在接受本报记者采访时表示，股价创新低并不是必须卖的理由，而是应该分析股价暴跌的原因，是市场因素还是公司本身的因素。

In the recent share price of making new low, under the weak market，Investors should be how to operate？Stock fund champion in the first half、The Great Wall JingShun core competitiveness in more than the fund manager wide accepting our newspaper reporter to interview said，Share prices low and not have to sell the innovation of reason，But should analyze the cause of the share prices collapse，Is the market factors or the company itself is factors。

　　对于下半年行情，余广认为仍以结构性行情为主。除了一些优质个股强者恒强外，部分超跌板块个股可能存在超跌反弹机会，如与基建、房地产相关的板块。他认为房地产6月新开工数量下降16%，反映出开发商对新开工目前还是比较谨慎，但近期的房地产销售却很好。

For the second half of market，More than that to structural market is still wide to give priority to。In addition to some high quality stocks outside the strong strong constant，The fall of individual stocks may have dropped the plate rebound opportunity，Such as and construction、Real estate related plates。He thinks that real estate construction starts June fell 16%，Reflect on new construction or currently developers wary，But recent real estate sales but very good。

　　余广分析称，通常房地产开工投资会滞后，所以下半年在房地产新开工方面还是会有所好转。水泥板块受海外市场影响小，没有库存因素，下半年或有机会，但目前保增长、加大基建投资的政策效应尚未显现，水泥价格仍在下跌，对水泥板块的操作还需要观察。

Wide analysis says more than，Real estate investment will be lag usually start，So in the second half of real estate in new construction or would be improved。Cement plate overseas market by small effects，No inventory factors，The second half or have a chance，But now the growth、The effect of the policy of increasing investment in infrastructure has not been revealed，Cement prices are still falling，The operation of cement plate also need to look at。

　　此外，从券商的策略报告来看，有不少看好下半年行业、板块轮动。与之对应的是，以行业轮动为主要投资方向的基金在业绩上已经有所表现，其中光大保德信行业轮动最近三个月的收益率接近3%，而同期标准股基平均的收益率仅为1.62%。

In addition，The strategy report from brokers see，There are many good industry in the second half、Plate wheel move。And the matching is，By industry for the main investment direction wheel move the fund in performance has showed，Among them the letter industry round DE da dynamic recently three months of yields close to 3%，Over the same period, the average rate of return of the standard is only 1.62%。

　　光大保德信行业轮动基金经理于进杰对记者称，三季度市场可以再次憧憬经济的短周期复苏，房地产、汽车、金融服务等早周期性行业值得关注。同时应在供应增加、估值承压的背景下逐步增持在细分领域具备核心竞争力的优势成长股，中期内持续看好结构调整和消费升级所带来的消费类行业的增长机会。

Everbright the dexin industry turning YuJinJie fund manager to reporters said，Three quarters of the market can look forward to the short cycle again economic recovery，Real estate、car、Financial services early cyclical industry is a concern。And should also increase in supply、Valuations confined under the background of the additional step by step in niche areas with core competitiveness growth stock，During the period of the continued good structure and consumption upgrade brought about by the consumer industry growth opportunities。

　　于进杰认为，尽管目前通胀处于低位、货币政策宽松延续，同时财政政策适度加力，而经济增速下行有望阶段性企稳，且估值处于相对低位，三季度面临的投资环境较好，但进入四季度后则需要重新评估经济增长以及通胀的前景，中期内经济增速下台阶的不确定性可能重新释放。

YuJinJie think，Despite the current low inflation、Monetary policy loose continue，At the same time fiscal policy moderate strength，But economic growth is expected to stage stabilising downlink，And valuations in a relatively low，Three quarters of the investment environment of face is good，But in the fourth quarter, after the need to evaluate economic growth and inflationary prospect，During the period of economic growth in the next steps uncertainty may be released again。