在反思中诚“诚至金开1号”陷入困境的原因时，我们发现让其失去动力的并不是煤矿本身，而是融资人、实际控制人的高利贷风波。当然，也会有人拿近期煤矿陷入短期价格“雪崩”说事，可是如果我们深入探讨价格“雪崩”的原因、煤炭利润空间、未来走势，我们会发现煤炭行业短期的暴利尚无法破解。

In reflections on the profiles“Sincerity to gold open no. 1”The reason is in trouble，We found that let it lost power and not coal mine itself，But RongZiRen、The actual control the usury storm。Of course，Will someone took coal mine in recent short-term price“avalanche”move，But if we further discussed the price“avalanche”reason、Coal profit space、The future trend，We will find that the coal industry windfall profits are not crack in the short term。

　　欧债危机升级，国际经济形势进一步恶化，原油带动外煤价格快速下降，秦皇岛压港创历史新高，电厂因电力需求增速和煤炭价格下降趋势而降低库存天数等造成煤炭价格“雪崩”。不过需要指出的是，实际上煤炭占中国一次能源比例(75％以上)并没有下降，同时外煤占中国煤炭需求比例很小(2011年1.7万吨，占比6％，近期有所增加但影响不大)，而制约中国煤炭供需最重要因素——铁路运输瓶颈短期无望打破，因此我们预计煤炭价格快速下降的趋势不可持续。

The debt crisis to upgrade，International economic situation worse，Crude oil prices falling fast driving the coal，Qinhuangdao YaGang a record，The power plant for electric power demand growth and coal price decline and reduce the number of total stock price of coal cause“avalanche”。But need to point out，In fact of China's coal a energy ratio(75%)Did not decline，At the same time outside of the Chinese coal demand for coal proportion is very small(In 2011, 17000 tons，More than 6% of，The recent increase but the impact is not big)，And restricts the coal supply and demand the most important factors, the railway transport bottlenecks short-term hopeless break，So we expect rapid downward trend in the price of coal is unsustainable。

　　同时，煤炭采掘成本上升幅度有限(200－300元/吨)，成本相对于价格来说，“暴利行业”仍当之无愧，这一点我们可以从煤炭价格暴涨的过程中明显看到。

At the same time，Coal mining cost increase of limited(200-300 yuan/ton)，Cost price relative to it，“Profits industry”Still worthy，This we can from coal prices over the process clear to see。

　　当然，这并不是说煤炭价格仍会一往无前上升或不会下降，从长期趋势看煤炭价格回归是必然。

Of course，This is not to say that the price of coal will still be indomitable up or won't fall，In the long term trend see the price of coal regression is necessary。

　　首先，中国一次能源占比终将向发达国家靠拢，煤炭占比逐渐下降是趋势。

first，China accounts for an energy than to developed countries will close，Coal accounts for gradually decline than is the trend。

　　其次，中国煤炭供大于求的趋势正在形成。“十一五”期间共完成投资1.25万亿元，加上2011年的4700亿元，共计1.72万亿元。按800元/吨产能建设计算，可形成产能21亿吨，其中5亿吨转入“十三五”，“十二五”净增产能16亿吨，加上现有煤矿产能，全国煤矿总产能近期过剩的问题明显，而这还没考虑新疆、蒙东正在形成的巨大煤炭和煤转化供给。

second，China coal supply trend is formed。“11”Total investment 1.25 trillion yuan during the finish，With 2011 years of 470 billion yuan，A total of 1.72 trillion yuan。According to the construction of a productivity of 800 yuan/ton calculation，Can form capacity of 2.1 billion tons，Among them to 500 million tons“1035”，“1025”Capacity of 1.6 billion tons of net，Add the existing coal mine production capacity，The national total surplus coal mine recent problems is obvious，That is even before considering xinjiang、MengDong are forming huge coal and coal conversion supply。

　　第三，铁路建设的加快将会让瓶颈效应逐渐丧失。

The third，The acceleration of railway construction will let the bottleneck effect is gradually lost。

　　第四，长期煤价高企，让东南亚、俄罗斯等外煤供应增加，虽然其含硫较高、黏性较大，但价格较低，对国内市场会造成一定冲击。

The fourth，Long-term coal prices high，Let the southeast Asia、Russia iso-effect coal supply were increased，Although the high sulfur、Viscous larger，But the price is low，On the domestic market can cause certain impact。

　　(作者就职于五矿国际信托有限公司)

(The author worked in minmetals international trust Co., LTD)