本报讯 “市场的低估值对产业资本的吸引力正在回升，政府从年初开始出台的一系列股市政策都在规范和支持二级市场，下半年市场企稳反弹有望。”诺亚(中国)财富管理中心研究部总经理连凯在昨日下午举办的2012下半年度策略报告中称。

Report from our correspondent “The market for industrial capital low valuations attractive is recovering，From the beginning of the government issued a series of stock market policies are all in standard and support the secondary market，The second half of stabilising the market is expected to rebound。”Noah(China)Wealth management research center in general manager Andrew Lin held yesterday afternoon late 2012 degrees strategy said in a report。

　　诺亚研究认为，尽管股市这段黎明前黑暗的时间有些长，但并没有超出预期，毕竟整个经济下滑的阵痛期过程在有限的政策调控下无法避免。从长周期看，目前估值见底、通胀回落，经济增速下滑并将在三季度企稳，股市底部特征明确。从短周期来看，目前经济增速向下，而政策向上，股市震荡仍然是大概率的事件。如果说2012年上半年股市一直处于防守阶段，那么下半年等待类衰退阶段尾声信号出现，将会迎来严冬之后的春天。

Noah research think，Although the stock market this paragraph of time before dawn to dark some long，But no faster than expected，After all, the whole process of the economic downturn, mass., in limited policy control can't avoid。From the long cycle see，Current valuations see bottom、Inflation fell，Economic growth in the third quarter and will decline stabilising，The stock market bottom features clear。From the short cycle and see，The current economic growth rate down，And policy up，Market volatility is still big probability of events。If the first half of 2012 the stock market has been in defensive stage，So the second half wait for the class decline period end signals appear，Will have the spring after winter。

　　在接受《大众证券报》记者采访时，连凯表示，中国的股市正经历一波估值重构的过程，目前是产业投资非常好的用武之地。历史上看，股市经历了三个大的阶段，2001年之前，是找庄的阶段；2002-2008年，重组是主流，发展机构投资者；第三个阶段，就是现在，为全流通时代，市值在股市中体现得非常重要，产业投资可以用总市值的概念来判断企业，价值投资会慢慢成为主流，而这在二级市场已经有所体现。

In accepting the《Public stock certificate report》A reporter to interview，Andrew Lin said，China's stock market is seen a wave of the reconstruction of the valuation process，At present is industrial investment very good animations。historically，The stock market has experienced three big stage，Before 2001，The stage is to find village；2002-2008，Restructuring is the mainstream，Developing institutional investors；The third stage，Is now，For the full circulation of age，Market value reflected in the stock market is very important，Industrial investment can use the concept of total market value judgment enterprise，The value investment will slowly become mainstream，And this has been reflected in the secondary market。

　　记者 黄都 王金萍

Reporter WangJinPing all yellow