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“钻石底”告破 分析师称变盘可能性越来越大--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-25

  由于欧债危机愈演愈烈,周二早盘A股顺势低开,上证综指在击穿2132点的年内低点之后展开反弹。但由于市场观望情绪依然浓重,市场反弹乏力,弱势震荡格局依旧。年内低点被跌破意味着什么?昨日收盘后,《大众证券报》记者特别连线了两位业内专家。

As the debt crisis intensified,Earlier on Tuesday with A shares at A lower price,The Shanghai composite index broke 2132 points in the years after the low a rally。But because the market wait-and-see emotions remained strong,Markets rebounded fatigue,Weak concussion pattern remains。Years by low below mean???????After the markets closed yesterday,《Public stock certificate report》Reporter special attachment for the two industry experts。

  变盘可能性越来越大

Variable dish even more likely

  《大众证券报》:昨日沪指盘中击破坚挺数月的“钻石底”,至此沪指也创下3年多来新低,但整个市场并没有出现恐慌性下跌,午后放量拉升,深成指更一度弥补周一的下跌缺口。A股的反弹是一日游行情还是反弹的开始?我们应当如何看到2132点被跌破的现象?

《Public stock certificate report》:Yesterday HuZhi plate struck the firm for months“Diamond bottom”,So far HuZhi also set three years to new lows,But the market did not appear panic decline,The rare pull litre,More on Monday once make up of shenzhen composition index fell gap。A shares rally in the one-day tour is the beginning of the market or rebound?We shall see below 2132 points to be how the phenomenon?

  东兴证券策略高级研究员/姜丕军:短期来看,大的趋势仍未形成,当前市场还在低位筑底阶段,近期将维持弱势震荡。周二盘中反弹,主要是跟汇丰PMI初值好于预期有关,但经济是否触底回升,尚有疑问。

Following securities senior fellow/JiangPiJun strategy:The short term,Big trend is still not form,The current market is built in the low post the stage,Recent will remain weak concussion。Plate rebound on Tuesday,With the HSBC PMI main is better than expected the initial value,But whether the economy rebounded hit bottom,Kinda doubt it。

  随着股指逐步下移,只能说变盘的可能性越来越大,如果出现大的趋势性行情,必须满足的条件是:上游原材料价格探底回升,特别是煤炭价格降价趋势结束。如果这个信号出现,将意味着工业生产力度的进一步加大,有利于经济的复苏。

Along with the stock index down gradually,Can only say that change the possibility of plate is more and more big,If any big trend market,Must meet the condition is:The material price of agent back,Especially coal by cutting the price by end of the trend。If this signal appear,Will mean that industrial production to increase strength,To economic recovery。

  东吴证券(601555,股吧)策略分析师/周恺锴:个人认为周二市场的反弹还是一种短期现象,可能是一日游,也有可能是1-2个交易日的反弹行情,但是时间不会很长。虽然从盘面来看,一创新低就有逢低买盘出现,可是成交量仍然维持低位水平,这可以看出仍然是场内资金的自救行为,既然是反弹自救,那么也意味着难以走远。

Soochow securities(601555,Shares it)Analysts/ZhouKai Kai strategy:Personal that Tuesday's market rebound or a short-term phenomenon,May be day tour,May 1-2 trading day's rallies,But time is not long。Although from the disk and see,A low innovation is low on buying appear,But still maintain low volume level,This can be seen inside the save money is still the behavior,Since it is the rebound save his life,That also means that hard to go far。

  2132点被跌破,首先我们从技术形态上来看,是种破位,尽管不像前面那样出现放量阴线破位明显,但形态来看已经明确了M头,按这种形态来看,目前我们处在M头的右肩位置,因此这也预示着未来仍然处在下跌的趋势。其次,我们从盘中来看,最近我们也能看到比如开开实业(600272,股吧)等一些个股持续拉出涨停的现象,这种现象让人想到了2008年太行水泥的表现,此外还有后面天舟文化(300148,股吧)的表现,也就是说虽然破位了,但是结构性行情还是存在的,在这些个股的带动下局部反弹行情是可期的。因此我们可以得出一个结论,目前市场仍然面临下跌的风险,但是结构性反弹是会存在的,如果权重板块可以企稳,那么大盘向下的空间也不会特别大。

2132 points to be below,First we from technology form perspective,Is kind of break a,Although not as rare as appear in front of a line break Yin is obvious,But form has made it clear to see the M head,In this form and see,Now we were in M of the head of a right shoulder position,So indicated that the future is still falling trend。second,We see from the pan,Recently we can see such as open industrial(600272,Shares it)And so on some stocks last out the phenomenon of harden,This kind of phenomenon let a person think of the 2008 mountain in shansi cement performance,In addition to the boat behind day culture(300148,Shares it)performance,That is although broken bits,But there is an option of structural,In these stocks drive under local rallies are to be expected。So we can get a conclusion,At present the market still face downside risk,But there will be the rally is structural,If weight plate can be stabilising,So the space also won't special downward。

  围绕成长性选股 Around the growth stock selection

  《大众证券报》:在沪指创新低的同时,我们也看到,中小盘个股比重较高的深主板、中小板和创业板指数距1月6日的低点尚有一段距离,昨日的反弹力度也较沪指来得强;此外,食品饮料等非周期行业的表现仍要强于周期性行业,结构性分化依然延续。从后市操作来看,投资者如何把握上述板块的机会或规避其中的风险?

《Public stock certificate report》:In HuZhi innovation low at the same time,We also see,Small cap stocks higher proportion of the deep motherboard、Small and medium plate and gem index from the January 6 lows are still a distance,Yesterday's rebound strength is also HuZhi come strong;In addition,Food and beverage, etc the cycle industry's performance is still superior to cyclical industries,Structural differentiation still continue。After operating from see,How to grasp the plate of investors or avoid the risk of chance?

  姜丕军:在市场筑底阶段,要谨防市场前期强势板块和个股的补跌现象出现。目前市场主要是游资在到处做热点,行情延续性极差,盘面信息没有太多参考意义。建议投资者以10%-20%的资金施行低仓位操作,从众多不确定性中寻找确定性的标的。围绕成长性,依据自下而上选股原则,继续配置符合经济结构转型的非银行金融行业、节能环保行业和新三板个股等。

JiangPiJun:Built in the market phase,No attention to the plate and strong market for stocks fell phenomenon to appear。At present main market liquidity is everywhere do hot spots,An option to poor continuity,The disk information without too much reference significance。Suggest investors to 10%-20% of the capital operation and low position,From a number of uncertainties in search for deterministic mark。Around the growth,According to pick a bottom-up principle,Continue to comply with the economic structure transformation of the configuration of non-bank financial industry、Energy conservation and environmental protection industry and new SanBan stocks, etc。

  周恺锴:首先我们可以看到强势股多以防御性板块,比如周一表现最好的农林牧渔,周二的食品饮料,也就是说尽管此前有强势股补跌的迹象,但最终这种趋势暂没有形成,并未明确发出上涨结束的信号。短期来看,我认为这些板块仍然有机会,但是在操作上我认为需要提高警惕、逢高减仓。毕竟他们的累计涨幅不小,未来能有多少业绩增长能够支撑这种上涨并不明确,一旦业绩上得到了明确,可能就会出现风险。在目前市场没有成交量的情况下,操作难度比较大,建议投资者控制仓位,等待机会。记者 刘扬 艾凌羽

ZhouKai Kai:First of all we can see a strong strands in defensive plate,Such as one of the best farming, forestry, fishery on Monday,Tuesday's food and beverage,That is despite the strong shares fall for the signs,But in the end of this trend are not formed,Did not explicitly send out a signal an end to rise。The short term,I think these plates still have a chance,But in operation I think need alert、Meet high decrease a storehouse。After all their cumulative or not small,How many are the future growth performance can support the rise is not clear,Once the performance has been clear,There will be risk。In the present market no volume,Difficult operation,Suggest investors control positions,Waiting for a chance to。Reporter LiuYang YiLingYu



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