上证综指昨日报收于2126.00点，创三年来收盘新低，尤其是盘中阶段性新低2124点，较2007年上证综指最高点6124点跌去4000点。截至目前，沪市最新平均市盈率为11.39倍，深市最新平均市盈率为21.65倍；而6124点时，两市市盈率超过70倍。

The Shanghai composite index at yesterday at 2126.00，Three years and closed at new lows，Especially plate stage low 2124 points，In 2007, the Shanghai composite index is high 6124 points to 4000 points down。So far，Shanghai latest average p/e is for 11.39 times，Shenzhen exchanges for latest average p/e is 21.65 times；And 6124 point，City is filled with more than 70 times the two cities。

进入双向博弈时代 Into the two-way game time

　　《大众证券报》：从6124点到2124点，A股市场发生了哪些改变？

《Public stock certificate report》：From 6124 points to 2124 points，What had happened to the A share market change？

　　东莞证券研究所副所长/俞杰：6124点是牛市顶点，而2007年之前，股市的走向与实体经济的发展并没有太大的联系。现在的A股市场已经进入全流通时代。全流通后，场内的机制有了很大的不同，引入了创业板、股指期货、融资融券，这也造成博弈结构、投资结构发生了很大的变化。

The dongguan securities, deputy director of institute/YuJie：6124 point is a bull market vertex，And 2007 years ago，The stock market trend and the development of the real economy is not much contact。Now the A share market has into the circulation time。After full circulation，The court mechanism has made a big difference，Into the gem、Stock index futures、margin，It also causes game structure、The investment structure has changed very greatly。

　　以往人们往往把估值做的很高很高，而远离基本面；现在随着实业资本进入股市，如果做的很高，必然有套现的要求。过去机构投资者往往有做市值的要求，但现在做空就行。事实上，在股指期货引进后，未来指数的运行空间不会太大。因此，与2007年前相比，目前进入双向博弈的时代，很多波动规律不能用以往的经验来做判断。

Before people tend to do high valuations，And far away from the fundamentals；Now, with the industrial capital into the stock market，If do high，There must be to cash requirements。The past institutional investors tend to do the requirement of market value，But now do empty will do。In fact，After introducing the stock index futures，The operation of the future index is not too large space。so，Compared with 2007 years ago，At present the game into a two-way era，Many variation rule can't use past experience to do judgment。

　　湘财证券宏观策略部主管/徐广福：五年来市场结构发生了很多改变，一方面可以从行业角度看，另一方面可以从投资者群体的角度来看。从行业来看，6124点那波上涨时，领涨的是传统大蓝筹板块，但现在蓝筹板块普遍遭遇调整，表现活跃的更多是新兴蓝筹和创新类行业。市场“齐涨共跌”的时代已经改变了，未来更多是关注成长性和发展空间的结构性行情。而从投资者角度看，2005年之前金融资本占据市场的主要话语权，当时基金的持股约占市场总市值的30%以上。但在2005年股权分置改革之后，产业资本逐渐崛起，基金的话语权也开始下降，目前持股比例降至10%左右。在这个过程中，基金的思路也在主动被动地发生着改变，就是从以往一味青睐强周期板块，逐渐转向关注新兴产业板块等。

XiangCai securities macro strategy department supervisor/XuGuangFu：Market structure in five years there has been a lot of change，On the one hand may view from industry，On the other hand can investors from the point of view of the group。From the industry，6124 points that rises，Brought up is the traditional big blue chip plate，But now the blue-chip plate in general adjustment，The more active is blue chip and the innovation of new industry。market“Together with rose fell”Times have changed，The future is more growth and development of the space on the structural market。From the perspective of investors，Before 2005, financial capital market main right up，At the time of the fund holding accounts for about 30% of total market capitalization。But in 2005 after the reform of non-tradable shares，Industrial capital gradually rise，The discourse right fund also began to fall，Currently holding ratio dropped to around 10%。In this process，The train of thought of in the initiative also fund passive happen all the change，Is from the previous blindly favour strong cycle plate，Gradually turned to focus on emerging industry plate, etc。

　或步入熊市末端 Or into a bear market ends

　　《大众证券报》：从6124点到2124点，如何看待目前股市的运行环境，估值水平怎样？

《Public stock certificate report》：From 6124 points to 2124 points，How to look at the market operation environment，Valuation levels how？

　　俞杰：从宏观经济表现来说，上半年GDP增速跌破8%，实体经济呈现出超预期下滑的态势，其中既有全球经济增速放缓的影响，又有国内经济转型带来的阵痛，人们也不断修正着对宏观经济的预测。

YuJie：From a macroeconomic performance for example，Fell below 8% GDP growth in the first half，The entity economy in surplus expected the posture of the downturn，Both the global economic slowdown in influence，And domestic economic transformation bring pain，People also constantly revised on the prediction of political economy。

　　刚公布的汇丰PMI数据，一定程度上就显示了此前宽松政策释放的效果，比如新订单指数的反弹至45.7，产出指数51.2创新高等；但是市场仍在观望，预计8月上旬官方公布的相关经济运行数据或仍很难作为市场判断经济见底回升的依据，将继续等待8月份的数据给出答案。个人预计经济三季度见底的可能性较高，这既有政策累积效应的释放，也有经济运行的自身规律，并有望在“十二五”末实现经济转型的阶段性成果。

The HSBC PMI data just released，To some extent that shows that after the release of the loose policy effect，Such as new orders index of the rally to 45.7，Output index of 51.2 innovation；But the market is still on the fence，Expected early August official related economic operation data or still difficult to judge as market economic see bottom resilience of the basis，Will continue to wait for the month of August figures give the answer。Personal expects the economy to see bottom three quarters of the possibility of higher，It has both the release of accumulation effect policy，Also have of economic operation of the law itself，And is looking to“1025”Realize the economic transformation of the achievements。

　　从市场的运行格局来看，A股市场很可能进入熊市的末尾。此前受政策预期的推动而出现上涨，但在经济增速放缓下走低，跌破2132点以后又有惯性下跌的要求，也不排除还会进入非理性下跌的阶段。

From the operation of the market structure and see，A-share market is likely to at the end of A bear market。Previously expected by policy to promote and appear to rise，But in the economic slowdown in the lower，Below 2132 points and inertia of the fall after requirements，Also don't expel will also fall into irrational stage。

　　徐广福：从6124点到2124点，股市经历了一个估值不断下移的过程。那时市场的整体PE差不多是现在的五倍。估值的下降主要有几点原因：一是五年前的市场在经历股改、汇改等一系列制度红利之后，作为一个新兴的市场，享受到了较高的估值，也造成明显的非理性上涨和价值的高估；二是供需关系已经发生变化，6124点时两市市值只有7、8万亿，现在已达到22万亿，流动资金不足的情况下筹码供应却激增，好比水量增加不明显的情况下圆桶直径却增大很多，水位自然就下降了；三是股改产生了产业资本这股新兴力量，他们由于持股成本很低，所以不断减持的过程中也压低了整个市场的估值。

XuGuangFu：From 6124 points to 2124 points，The stock market has experienced a process of constantly valuations down。At that time the market as a whole is now almost PE five times。Valuation of the main down several reasons：One is five years ago in the market reform experience、Yuan reform and a series of system after dividends，As an emerging market，Enjoy the high valuations，Also have obvious irrational rise and the value of overvalued；2 it is supply and demand have changed，6124 point two city market value, only seven、8 trillion，Now has reached 22 trillion，Floating capital insufficiency of chip supply is surge，Like water is not obvious increase of drum diameter increase a lot but round，Water level natural declines；Number three is produced industrial capital the emerging power，They due to very low cost holdings，So continually reduce held in the process also played down the whole market valuations。

理念要“与时俱进” Idea to“Keep pace with The Times”

　　《大众证券报》：从6124点到2124点，有哪些经验值得借鉴，未来的投资思路该如何树立？

《Public stock certificate report》：From 6124 points to 2124 points，What experience is worth using for reference，Future investment ideas how to set up？

　　俞杰：对投资者来说，基本面的分析方法是差不多的，但有区别预测与操作的差别。市场底不是预测出来的，是走出来的，没有完美的方法能够测算出底部。必要的预测能够帮助及时地把握行情、确认投资主线，但这离不开严格的操作计划。当预测准确时，可以多赚；预测失准时，可以少亏。比如现在，人们预计宏观经济三季度有望见底回暖，那么股指若进一步下跌，就可以渐进式的布局。

YuJie：For investors，The basic analysis methods are the same，But there is a difference between the difference of forecasting and operation。The market is not prediction to come out，Is to get out of the，There is no perfect method can work out the bottom。The necessary prediction can help to grasp the market in time、Recognize the investment main，But this without strict operating plan。When predict accurately，Can earn；Forecast on time lost，Can be less lost。Such as now，People in the third quarter is expected to see the macroeconomic have warmed，So if a stock index drop further，Can the gradual layout。

　　此外，建议投资者不要偏激的看待“蓝筹股”。从海外市场看，很多时候蓝筹股就是一个伪概念，往往会经历大浪淘沙，百年美国股市中，不同阶段都会有不同的蓝筹股，真正留存至今的不多，也经历了适者生存的过程。

In addition，Suggest investors don't extreme view of“Blue chip”。From overseas markets look，Many times blue chip is a false concepts，Often experience sweep，In one hundred, the U.S. stock market，The different stages of the blue chip will be different，Really not retained so far，Also experienced the process of the survival of the fittest。

　　有的投资者喜欢看巴菲特自传，事实上他当初买的很多股票股价很低，当时并不是蓝筹，但时至今天，人们将其作为蓝筹股的典范；其中，巴菲特只是发现了这些股票的成长性，这也是值得投资者借鉴的。

Some investors like buffett autobiography，In fact he had bought a lot of stock price is very low，At that time and not blue chip，But today，People as a blue chip model；Among them，Buffett just found the stock's growth，It is also worth investors using for reference。

　　徐广福：市场结构风格在发生着转变，投资者的思路也应该相应转向。就像监管层一直在“力挺”的蓝筹板块，随着市场的变化，蓝筹板块的定义也要经历一个动态的过程。数年前汽车、煤炭、钢铁、电力等周期性板块确实属于有较好发展前景的优质蓝筹，也享受了市场的青睐，但现阶段它们的发展空间已越来越小。而一些新兴产业开始迎来较大的发展空间，所以市场的资金偏好与投资理念会逐渐从传统大蓝筹板块向新兴蓝筹转移。投资者需要学会“与时俱进”。

XuGuangFu：Market structure style in producing a change，Investors also should turn to the thinking of the corresponding。Like regulatory has been“hard”Blue-chip plate of，Along with the changes in the market，The definition of blue chip plate to experience a dynamic process。Several years ago car、coal、steel、Power, periodic plate really belongs to have a good development prospect of quality blue chip，Also enjoy market favour，But at this stage of their development space already more and more little。And some emerging industry in the larger development space began，So the market funds preference and investment concept will gradually from traditional big blue chip plate to emerging blue-chip transfer。Investors need to learn“Keep pace with The Times”。

　　可以关注两个重点投资方向，一是随着居民收入水平提高而带来的中端消费品需求的提升，如品牌服装、珠宝首饰等；另外则是科技创新带来的发展机遇，如消费电子等。

Can focus on two key investment direction，One is with the income level of resident rise and brings the demand of consumer goods in ascension，Such as brand clothing、Jewelry, etc；Another is the innovation of science and technology brings opportunity of development，Such as consumer electronics, etc。

　　记者 李喆 实习记者 祝乃嘉

Reporter 李喆 ZhuNaiJia practice reporter