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32股陷业绩审美疲劳怪圈--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-27

  分析师:被结构性调整错杀 analysts:Be the structural adjustment of the hunt

  本报讯 据Wind统计显示,截至昨日收盘,两市共有1398家上市公司发布了2012年中期业绩预告,其中有749家公司上半年净利润同比增长,从对应的股价表现来看,多数个股获得了市场认可,但其中一小部分似乎陷入了业绩审美疲劳的怪圈——业绩持续增长,股价从不见高。

Report from our correspondent according to Wind statistics show,By yesterday closing quotation,Two city 1398 listed companies released the 2012 interim results predicted,There are 749 companies in the first half year-on-year growth in net profit,From the corresponding share price performance and see,Most stocks won the market acceptance,But a part of it seem to be in performance of the vicious circle of aesthetic fatigue performance-continued to increase,From see high share prices。

  数据显示,2012年中报预增超过40%的公司中,有32家非ST公司(详见8版)年内至今跌势不改,二季度的单季涨幅依然为负,即便是7月份以来,也是无一飘红。其中大立科技(002214,股吧)中报预增50%,年内跌幅却高达54.25%,二季度单季下跌15.11%,7月以来跌幅亦超过8%;安妮股份(002235,股吧)中报预增149.31%,年内跌幅为18.30%,二季度单季下跌26.80%,7月以来跌幅接近9%;林州重机(002535,股吧)中报预增50%,年内跌幅为18.84%,二季度单季下跌23.46%,7月以来跌幅接近13%。

Data shows,2012 NianZhongBao increased more than 40% of the company,There are 32 home the ST(See 8 edition)Years to break so far,For the second quarter rise still is negative,Even since July,Also is no wave red。In big made science and technology(002214,Shares it)The reported increased by 50%,Years but fall as much as 54.25%,Who fell 15.11% in the second quarter,The drop since July also more than 8%;Annie shares(002235,Shares it)The reported increased by 149.31%,Year down 18.30%,Who fell 26.80% in the second quarter,Fallen nearly 9% since July;Lin juki(002535,Shares it)The reported increased by 50%,Year down 18.84%,Who fell 23.46% in the second quarter,Fallen nearly 13% since July。

  记者进一步对比大立科技、安妮股份、林州重机的一季报发现,三者一季度净利润增幅分别为41.22%、198.89%、51.36%,扣除非经常性损益之后的结果为28.33%、254.47%、51.17%,这样的业绩对比A股上市公司今年一季度不到1%的整体净利润增幅,应该说还是具备了压倒性优势。此外,上述32家公司中,元力股份(300174,股吧)、掌趣科技(300315,股吧)、金科股份(000656,股吧)、北京旅游(000802,股吧)、成霖股份(002047,股吧)等绝大部分个股的业绩状况都与之相类似,但股价表现上看,今年似乎对此没有任何的反应。

The reporter made further contrast big science and technology、Annie shares、The quarterly reports found a juki Lin,The three quarter net profit growth of 41.22%, respectively、198.89%、51.36%,The profits and losses of the regular after deducting the results of 28.33%、254.47%、51.17%,This performance compared to A shares listed companies in the first quarter this year, less than 1% of the whole net profit growth,Should say or have a landslide。In addition,The above 32 companies,Yuan force shares(300174,Shares it)、Palm interesting science and technology(300315,Shares it)、Jinke shares(000656,Shares it)、Beijing tourism(000802,Shares it)、ChengLin shares(002047,Shares it)And most of the stocks performance and that all similar,But on the share price performances,This year seemed to have no reaction。

  “虽然业绩作为股价的重要参考指标,但并不是衡量的全部标准,今年市场风格由周期到非周期的快速转换,对部分绩优股造成的影响同样不可小窥。”爱建证券策略研究员吴正武对《大众证券报》表示,业绩方面,尤其是净利润这一指标,是多重核算、多种因素共同作用的结果,尽管可以表现出企业的盈利状况,但并不能以此来论个股涨跌。今年以来,周期性超跌股发起了初期反弹,但由于宏观经济的下行压力持续加大,出于规避风险、抵抗波动的考虑,公募资金大批量的开始转向以食品饮料、医药生物为代表的非周期性行业,从基金二季报也可以看到超配消费的情况,因此周期性行业中即便是绩优股也可能被市场无情错杀。

“Although performance as shares of the important reference index,But not all of the standard measure,This year the market by cycle to the cycle style of fast converting speed,On some of the impact of blue chip stocks also can not be small peep。”Love built on WuZhengWu researcher securities strategy《Public stock certificate report》said,Performance aspects,Especially net profit this indicator,Is multiple accounting、Many factors that work together,Although can show enterprise profitability,But and can't use this to go up drop of stocks。Since this year,Periodic super fall shares launched early rebound,But because of the macro economy downward pressure continue to widen,Avoid risk of、The fluctuation of the resistance to consider,Public offering money to start to turn large quantities of food and drink、Biological medicine as a representative of the the cyclical industries,From fund two quarterly reports also can see the match of consumption,So even if is blue chip stocks in periodic industry may also be market relentless hunt。

  观察发现,上述32家公司行业分布为:机械设备6家,信息服务5家,电子、化工各4家,信息设备3家,黑色金属、轻工制造2家,餐饮旅游、房地产、服装纺织、交通运输、医药生物、有色金属各1家,多数个股中都能找到周期性的踪影。摩根士丹利华鑫的一位操盘手也证实了这一说法,反弹通常是靠周期性行业“利好瞬间爆发”这一特性发起,年初反弹后,以去年个股跌幅来预测反弹高度的思想快速弥漫。但作为基金来说,选择标的必须具有高度、准确的前瞻性,因而大家所看到的市场已经存在了一定的滞后效应。以前,公募资金从周期性行业撤离,向抗周期行业转移大幅提速,而当时很多人却仍旧对超跌热衷。

Observed that,The above 32 companies industry for distribution:Mechanical equipment 6 companies,Information service five,electronic、Chemical every four,Information equipment three,Black metal、Light industrial manufacturing two,Restaurant tour、Real estate、textile、transportation、Medicine biological、Non-ferrous metal each home 1,Most stocks can be found in the periodic in sight。Morgan Stanley HuaXin of a terror hand also confirmed that,Rebound is often by cyclical industries“Outbreak good moments”This feature is imminent,Rebound early after,In individual stocks fell last year to predict the height of the rapid rebound thought penetrates。But as for funds,Choose mark must be highly、Accurate prospective,So you can see the market has been in existence for certain lags。before,Public offering funds from cyclical industry evacuated,To fight cycle industry transfer speed greatly,At a time when many people are still for the fall keen。

  吴正武进一步分析,市场历经3个月的下跌,杀跌动能已经消耗殆尽,昨日沪指再度创出2124.16点的新低,恐慌情绪的连续释放以及地量成交额的频现,无不在暗示底部的临近。需要注意的是,近来低迷的行情中,热点往往是一些二季度以来超跌的个股,市场风格显现由非周期再回周期的迹象。如果反弹出现,这些被结构性调整错杀的绩优股或将逐步体现出投资价值,机会值得期待。记者 惠晨晨

WuZhengWu further analysis,Market after 3 months of decline,Kill cheapen kinetic energy has consumed,Yesterday HuZhi makes a new low of 2124.16 points again,The panic and continuous release quantity of turnover frequent,They suggest that the approach of the bottom。Note,Recent downturn in the market,Hot spots are often since the second quarter dropped some super stocks,Market style with the cycle again appeared to signs of cycle。If appear rebound,These are the structural adjustment of the blue chip stocks or kill wrong gradually will reflect the value of your investments,Opportunity to look forward to。Reporter HuiChenChen



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