据新华社

According to xinhua news agency

外资主动撤离迹象尚不明显 Foreign active signs evacuation is unclear

　　国家外汇管理局最新数据显示，在国内外因素共同作用下，二季度境内的国际资本出现净流出现象，流出资金达714亿美元。

The state administration of foreign exchange the latest figures show，Factors acted together at home and abroad，In the second quarter of international capital appear in the territory of the net outflow phenomenon，Capital outflows of $71.4 billion。

　　这是继去年四季度以来，热钱外流的再次上演。分析人士认为，在欧债危机持续发酵的大背景下，一定时间范围内的热钱外流不可避免，小部分热钱外流不会给经济带来剧烈冲击，而长久来看，中国对跨境资金的吸引力依然强烈。

This is the since the last quarter of last year，Time out of the outflow of hot money。Analysts believe that，In the European debt crisis continued under the background of fermentation，Certain time within the scope of the outflow of hot money cannot be avoided，Small hot money not to bring the outflow of economic strong impact，And in the long run，China's capital of cross-border attractive still intense。

二季度外汇储备出现下跌 Foreign exchange reserves fell in the second quarter

　　根据外汇局最新数据，上半年我国资本和金融项目逆差达203亿美元。其中一季度顺差超过500亿美元，二季度逆差达714亿美元，这意味着二季度我国出现了700多亿美元热钱净流出现象。

According to the latest data，The country capital and financial project deficit of $20.3 billion。One quarter of more than $50 billion surplus，In the second quarter of deficit of $71.4 billion，This means that our country appear in the second quarter of more than 700 dollars in hot money net outflows phenomenon。

　　这并非是热钱首次流出境内。根据外汇局的统计数据，就在去年四季度，我国资本和金融项目一改多年顺差现象，出现了480亿美元的逆差，资金外流话题亦成为当时市场关注的焦点。

This is not the first time the hot money from China。According to the statistics of the data，In the fourth quarter last year，China's capital and financial project change years surplus phenomenon，Appeared trade deficit of $48 billion，Capital outflow has become a topic was the focus of attention of the market。

　　“长期以来，基于人民币升值等因素，海外跨境资本持续流向境内，但这一现象在去年四季度有所改变，跨境资本的流动方向开始出现逆转，并在今年二季度进一步加剧。”中国社科院世经所研究员张斌同时指出，当前跨境资本的双向波动现象加剧。

“long，Based on the appreciation of the renminbi, and other factors，Overseas cross-border capital flow to continue the land，But this phenomenon in the fourth quarter last year change，Cross-border capital flow direction started reversed，And in the second quarter of this year to further intensify。”By the Chinese academy of social sciences ShiJingSuo researchers also point out that zhang bin，The current cross-border capital of both a wave phenomenon worse。

　　与热钱的流出相对应，上半年我国外汇占款增长在个别月份出现了千亿元的负增长现象，而持续增长的外汇储备也在今年二季度罕见地减少。

And the corresponding to the hot money out，China's foreign exchange in the first half of the gap in individual growth in one hundred billion yuan appeared negative growth phenomenon，But steady growth of foreign exchange reserves are in the second quarter of this year to reduce the rare。

　　对于当前热钱流出问题，外汇局有关部门负责人指出：上半年我国确实出现了一定程度的资本外流，但不等于外资大规模集中撤离，外资主动撤离的迹象尚不明显。

For the current hot money flow problem，The charge of relevant departments said：The country do have a certain degree of capital outflow，But do not be equal to focus on foreign large-scale evacuation，Foreign active signs of withdrawal is unclear。

两因素加速热钱流出 Two factors speeded heat out money

　　分析人士认为，二季度欧债危机再掀波澜、人民币贬值预期增强等因素是当前部分热钱出境背后的重要推手。

Analysts believe that，In the second quarter of the debt crisis to lift the waves、The depreciation of RMB expected increase is the part of the factors such as hot money exit behind the important push。

　　“在世界经济缓慢复苏、国际金融动荡加剧的背景下，主要新兴市场普遍出现资本外流、储备减少、本币贬值，我国跨境资本流动受到影响在所难免。”外汇局有关部门负责人表示。

“The slow economic recovery in the world、The international financial turmoil the backdrop of，Major emerging markets appear generally capital outflow、Reserve reduce、Local currency devaluation，Our country cross-border capital flows affected unavoidable。”The charge of relevant departments said。

　　“次贷危机和欧债危机爆发之后，投资者避险情绪高涨，有部分资金从投资国回流至母国，引发资金流动的变化。”张斌指出。

“The subprime crisis and the European debt crisis after outbreak，Investors hedge in high spirits，Some funds from investor backflow to the home country，Trigger capital flow changes。”Zhang bin points out that。

　　此外二季度人民币贬值预期的增强也导致了一部分海外资金的回流。中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲表示，长久以来，人民币升值预期始终是热钱入境套利的一大诱因，但如今随着人民币日益向均衡水平的靠近，甚至出现贬值趋势，以至热钱入境的推力有所趋弱，短期套利资金出现了快速撤离。

In addition in the second quarter of the depreciation of RMB expected increase also led to the part of overseas funds backflow。China's foreign investment research institute President TanYaLing said，Has long，The RMB appreciation is always hot money a big cause of arbitrage entry，But now with the RMB increasingly to a balanced level close to，Appear even devaluation trend，That hot money entry to the thrust is weak，Short-term arbitrage funds appeared fast evacuation。

　　就在上一周，我国外汇市场曾连续出现人民币对美元汇率盘中跌破1%的罕见现象。一年期远期市场贬值预期超过1%，香港离岸远期贬值预期则高达1.5%，市场对于人民币前景一度较为悲观。

Just last week，China's foreign exchange market has continually to the dollar exchange rate in plate fell below 1% for the rare phenomenon。The one-year forward market expected value is more than 1%，Hong Kong offshore forward devaluation expected is as high as 1.5%，The market for RMB prospects once more pessimistic。

热钱流出影响有限 Hot money out limited influence

　　热钱的大进大出对一国经济体的影响不言而喻。随着欧债危机的跌宕起伏，新兴市场经济体国际资本流入与流出频率加快，货币不断经历大幅升值与贬值，为其经济发展前景增添了更多不确定性。

Hot money into the big and the influence of the economy of a country is self-evident。As the debt crisis of the ups and downs，Emerging market economies international capital inflow and outflow frequency speed up，Currency devaluation rise sharply and constantly experience，For its economic development prospects added more uncertainty。

　　也有分析认为，在国际经济和金融形势复杂背景下，短期资金的小部分流出是不可避免的正常现象，并且有利于国际收支的基本平衡。

Also have analyzed that，In the international economic and financial situation under complex background，A small portion of short term capital flow is inevitable normal phenomenon，And to the basic balance of international payments。

　　专家认为，经济体间的资金流动，短期内受利率、汇率等因素的影响明显，中长期则与一国的经济发展前景密切相关。“长期来看，我国经济稳定发展的基本面没有发生根本改变，当前增速虽有所放缓，但与其他经济体相比，对海外资金仍然具有很强的吸引力。”交通银行(601328,股吧)金融分析师鄂永健指出。

Experts say，Economies of funds between flow，The short term by the interest rates、Exchange rate the influence of such factors as obvious，The medium and long term with a country's economic development prospects are closely related。“In the long term，The steady development of China's economic fundamentals no's radical change，The current though growth slowed in the，But compared with other economies，For overseas funds still remain attractive。”Traffic bank(601328,Shares it)Financial analysts and hubei health said。

　　一个不容忽视的问题是，热钱的流出可能导致外汇占款的减少，最终会对我国货币供给方式带来深刻改变。中金公司首席经济学家彭文生就认为，如果外汇占款增量出现持续下降趋势，为保证市场充裕流动性，央行将持续下调准备金率进行反向对冲。

A not allow to ignore the problem is，Hot money out may lead to reduce the gap of foreign exchange，Eventually on China's monetary supply bring profound way change。Cicc chief economist PengWen with think，If foreign exchange a continued decline in the gap increment，To ensure that the market ample liquidity，The central bank will continue to fall reserve rate reverse hedge。