从2010年股指期货推出以后，封闭式基金的高折价状态一去不复返。但从去年三季度以来，股票市场持续下挫，封闭式基金体现了较强的抗跌性，当前的折价年化回报回升在5%以上，对于追求绝对回报的投资者而言，持有到期的收益是颇具吸引力的。

From 2010 stock index futures after launch，The closed-end fund high discount state is gone forever。But since the third quarter from last year，Stock markets continue to fall，Closed-end fund reflects the strong resistance to fall sex，The current discount the rise in return of 5% or more，The pursuit of absolute returns for investors，Hold expires gain is an attractive。

　封闭式基金抗跌性强 Closed-end funds fell sex strong resistance

　　根据好买基金研究中心的测算，从2010年1月1日至今，上证指数跌幅达到35.04%。若以封闭式基金价格周平均涨跌幅来取值对比的话，二级市场价格的跌幅仅为8.25%，抗跌性远远高于上证指数；若以封闭式基金每周复权单位净值增长率来取值对比的话，跌幅为27.13%，也是跑赢了上证指数的。封闭式基金净值指数在绝大多数时间里超越上证指数，净值波动风险较小。

According to the good buy fund research center of calculation，From January 1, 2010 today，The Shanghai index dropped 35.04%。If the price of closed-end fund average price to contrast values week of words，The secondary market prices fall is only 8.25%，Fall is much higher than the sex of the Shanghai index；If a week to closed-end fund answer authority unit net value growth rate to value contrast words，Down 27.13%，Also run won the Shanghai index。Closed-end fund net value index in the vast majority of time beyond the Shanghai index，Net worth fluctuation little risk。

　　好买基金研究中心认为，封闭式基金之所以会有如此大的超额收益得益于两个方面：首先是强制分红机制。理论上分红后折价率会瞬时扩大，而基金的其他条件并未变化，就会存在填权效应。这会形成超额的收益。近几年，封闭式基金分红行情提前，分红后折价率不缩小反而扩大，原因就是之前行情已经透支，但放长一点来看，在存在折价率的情况下，分红机制贡献了一部分超额收益。其次是封闭式基金折价率缩小。封闭式基金在到期后封转开，折价率呈现收敛的走势。这部分收敛也贡献了超额收益。

Good buy fund centre said，Closed-end funds have so much excess profits benefit from two aspects：First is forced dividends mechanism。In theory the discount rate of share out bonus will expand the instantaneous，And the other conditions did not change the fund，You have right to fill in effect。This will form the excess profit。In recent years，Closed-end fund market share out bonus in advance，After the share out bonus discount rate not narrow expansion instead，Reason is the market already overdrawn before，But with long point of view，In the presence of the discount rate，The mechanism of share out bonus contributions of excess profits。Next is the discount of close-ended fund rate reduction。Closed-end funds in expire after sealing turned away，On the movements of the discount rate of convergence。This part of the convergence also contribute to excess returns。

　　从这个角度上看，投资封闭式基金，时间就成了你的朋友。当净值增长再配合折价率缩小时，封闭式基金的价格就会呈现乘数效现，呈现成倍的增长。假如净值增长一倍，价格的增长将在2.5倍左右。而封闭式基金在下跌时期，由于股票的仓位不能超过八成，在净值的下跌幅度上会小于指数，即使加上折价率扩大的因素，也很难超过指数，这就形成了封闭式基金独特的涨时超涨，跌时反而较小的情形。

From this Angle look，Investment closed-end funds，Time has become your friend。When equity growth combined with a discount rate shrinks，The price of the closed-end fund would take on the multiplier effect now，Present a multiple growth。If net value double，The increase in price will be in 2.5 times or so。And closed-end funds in the fall period，The stock position can't more than eighty percent，In the net on fell by less than the index，Even with the discounted rate expanded factors，And it is hard to more than the index，This creates a closed-end fund unique go up the price rises，Just when the situation down smaller。

折价率年化回报5%以上 Discount rate of more than 5% in return

　　折价率是持有封闭式基金的安全垫，对持有至到期的投资者是非常重要的参考。由于平均到期时间缩短，封基折价率自2010年9月以来持续走低，折价率年化回报也相应走低。但去年三季度以来，由于经济下行风险加大，投资者要求收益率走高，因而封基的折价率也持续走高。好买基金研究中心测算，当前封闭式基金的折价率年化回报基本维持在5%以上，这种机会与历史上的2005年、2008年底非常相似。

Discount rate is holding the closed-end fund safety mat，To held to maturity investors is very important reference。Because average maturity time is short，Sealing the discount rate since September 2010 keep falling，Discount rate of return in the corresponding lower。But since the third quarter of last year，Because of the economic downside risk to the increase，Investors are demanding yields go up，So the yankees sealing discount rate also continues to go up。Good buy fund research center estimates，The current the closed-end fund discount rate of return in basic maintain more than 5%，This kind of opportunity and history of 2005 years、By the end of 2008 is very similar。

　　2010年是折价率年化回报率的转折点，之前大部分时间维持在5%以上，之后基本是围绕3%浮动。2010年4月份股指期货的推出是这一现象的直接原因。股指期货推出之后，理论上可以买入封闭式基金，构建一个贝塔值稳定的组合，再卖出股指期货，等待折价率的回归进行套利。这封杀了折价率的下行空间，使得折价率的年化回报率不可能大幅提升，从这点上来说，从制度上封闭式基金大幅折价的时代已经一去不复返了，绝对低估的“好时光”难再。

2010 is the year of the discount rate of return on the turning point，Most of the time before maintain at 5% or more，Basic is floating around 3% after。April 2010 stock index futures launch is the direct reason for this phenomenon。Stock index futures after launch，In theory can buy closed-end funds，To construct a beta value stability of the portfolio，To sell stock index futures，Waiting for the return of the discount rate for arbitrage。It blocked the discounted rate downline space，Make the discount rate of return on the years may not improve，For from this point，Closed-end funds from system heavily discounted the time has gone，Absolute underestimated“Good time”Difficult again。

　　另一方面，封闭式基金受关注程度增加。以往投资封闭式基金的机构主要是保险公司，从前十大持有人的统计来看，封闭式基金有超过50%的份额被保险公司持有，一些基金的持有比例甚至接近70%。近年来一些新兴的机构投资者也爱上了封闭式基金，纷纷推出以封闭式基金为标的的产品。机构投资者的大量参与，充分挖掘了封闭式基金的潜力，也阻碍封闭式基金折价率的非理性扩大。

On the other hand，Closed-end funds increased concern。Before the closed-end fund investment institutions mainly insurance company，Once upon a time ten holder's statistics and see，Closed-end funds have more than 50% of the share held by insurance company，Some funds hold proportion even close to 70%。In recent years, some new institutional investors also fell in love with the closed-end funds，Introduction to closed-end funds are for mark products。A large number of institutional investors participate in，Fully exploit the potential of closed-end funds，Also hindering the rate of discount of close-ended fund irrational expansion。

　　无论是封基价格还是封基净值，都表现出强于大盘的抗跌性。因此，无论是从交易获利还是持有至到期的角度，封基都是值得关注的投资标的。就单个基金而言，持有期限较短（如1年左右）的投资者可以考虑折价率较高，同时收益能力较强的基金，比如基金开元。持有期限较长（如2年左右）的投资者应更加关注折价率高的品种，如基金金鑫、基金普丰，折价率年化回报都在6%以上。

Whether the price or sealing the seal net worth，Show a stronger than the fall of sex。so，Whether from the trading profit or held to maturity Angle，Sealing and are worth attention investment targets。Single funds，Holding short term（If one year or so）Investors can consider discount rate is higher，While earning power strong fund，Such as fund kaiyuan。Holding period is longer（Such as 2 years or so）Investors should pay more attention to the discount rate high varieties，Such as fund jinxin、Fund PuFeng，In return for the discount rate of over 6%。

　　虽然目前市场较弱，投资封闭式基金短期内会有净值浮亏的可能，但从持有到期的角度来看，到期亏本的可能性是很小的，现存的封闭式基金的普遍到期年限是2014年，大多在2年左右，折价率普遍在12%左右。买入封闭式基金相当于你买了一揽子9折的股票，赢亏的平衡点在2000点以下。

Although at present the market are relatively weak，Investment enclosed fund short term FuKui net value of may，But from the point of view of hold expires，The possibility of losing money due to be small，The existing of closed-end funds generally expires in 2014 fixed number of year is，Mostly in 2 years，Discount rate of around 12% in general。Buying closed-end fund is equivalent to you bought a package of discount of of the stock，Win a deficit balance in below 2000。

　　黄晓霞

HuangXiaoXia