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股市对场外资金吸引力几何--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-03

  受地产股开盘急挫影响,两市未能延续周三的反弹走势,其中,沪指一度逼近2100点大关,而深成指再创本轮调整的新低8959.17点。上证综指报收于2111.18点,下跌0.57%;深成指报收于8995.62点,下跌1.86%。两市昨日共成交872.3亿元,较上一交易日小幅减少。

Property counters were opened by nasty amid the influence,Two city failed to continue the trend rebound on Wednesday,Among them,HuZhi once approached 2100-point mark,And another round of adjustment of shenzhen composition index low 8959.17 points。At the Shanghai composite index to 2111.18,Fall 0.57%;At shenzhen composition index to 8995.62,Fall 1.86%。Two city of 87.23 billion yuan yesterday clinch a deal,A minor reductions on a trading day。

  从盘面看,地产板块整体跌逾2%,苏宁环球(000718,股吧)跌停,“招保万金”均大幅下跌。此外,ST板块仍有26只个股跌停,B股指数也再度走弱,下跌0.86个百分点,不过,创业板指数逆市走强,上扬0.22%。

Look from the disk,Real estate plate overall fallen by more than 2%,Suning universal(000718,Shares it)Drop stop,“Recruit the gold”All down significantly。In addition,ST plate is still only 26 individual stocks drop stop,B shares index also has a weakness,Fall 0.86%,but,Gem index inverse city going strong,Up 0.22%。

 

 板块走势难同步 Plate movements difficult synchronization

  《大众证券报》:银行股护盘,沪指在2100点上方企稳;地产股砸盘,深成指创阶段性新低,如何看待目前盘面的特征,地产股大跌的原因是什么?两市短期会否继续分化?

《Public stock certificate report》:Bank stocks offerings,HuZhi in 2100 points stabilising above;Property counters were hit dish,Shenzhen composition index and low stage,How to treat the current characteristics of the disk,With property crash of the reason for that?Two city short-term will you continue to differentiation?

  华泰证券(601688,股吧)首席策略分析师/陈慧琴:深成指创阶段性新低使得沪深两市的同步性进一步加大,这对市场见底有一定的积极推动作用。此前,沪指跌幅一直领先于深成指,各大指数的同步性很差,本周二沪指创出2100.25点的阶段性低点,而回望深成指,包括创业板指,相对沪指所处的阶段性地位来说,都属于“高高在上”。那么现在深成指创出阶段性新低,这就逐渐将指数的实质差异缩小了,预计此后各大指数逐渐趋于同步的可能性比较大,深市的大面积补跌应该会按部就班的进行。

Huatai securities(601688,Shares it)Chief strategy analysts/ChenHuiQin:Shenzhen composition index and shenzhen city that low stage two further intensify the synchronicity,The market see bottom to have certain positive role。after,HuZhi fall has been leading in shenzhen composition index,Each big index the synchronicity of the very poor,On Tuesday HuZhi makes 2100.25 the phases of low,And look back at shenzhen composition index,Including gem refers to,Relative HuZhi in stage for position,Belong to“On high”。So now creating new low stage of shenzhen composition index,This is the essence of the index will gradually narrowing the differences,Since then the index is expected to gradually become synchronous the possibility of more,Large area of shenzhen exchanges for fall should be step-by-step。

  地产股的下跌很可能是机构,尤其是基金大幅撤离所造成的。由于近来地产各项数据不断转好,调控可能重新加码,然而在二级市场上,地产股的估值多数处于比较高的位置。需要注意的是,医药、触摸屏也属于基金重仓的板块,昨日均有非常不错的表现,但市场却依然处于地量水平,由于其市值相对较小,基金只要从地产股中把资金稍作腾挪即可撬动,这也能从侧面反映出基金从地产股中撤离。此外,只有各大指数同步达到底部区域,市场才能真正见底,因此在当前各指数并不完全同步的情况下,加上业绩也会参差不齐,分化的可能性是很大的。

The fall of the sector is likely to be institutions,Especially fund a caused by the evacuation。Because of a recent real estate various data constantly to good,Regulation is it possible to beat,However in the secondary market,Valuations of property counters were high in the position of the majority。Note,medicine、Touch screen also belong to fund the heavy storehouse plates,All have very good yesterday performance,But the market is still in a land quantity level,Because of its market value is relatively small,Funds from the fund property counters were as long as a move STH can move,This can also from the side reflect fund property counters were evacuated from the。In addition,Only the big index reached the bottom area of the synchronization,The market can really see the bottom,So in the current each index is not completely in sync,Plus performance will also is uneven,The possibility of differentiation is great。

  东吴证券(601555,股吧)策略分析师/朱浩明:从整体上看,目前两市继续大幅下跌的动能有限,但仍处于磨底的阶段,两市信心仍没有恢复,量能有限的同时,悲观情绪还有放大的过程。一方面经济见底回升的过程还有待观察,另一方面随着中报进入密集区,越加多的业绩地雷很可能出现,这也会抑制两市的做多情绪。不过,对磨底过程也可以两面来看,尽管悲观情绪阻碍了指数的上涨,但很可能磨出一个较为坚实的底部。不过,就短期而言,市场还会有反复,2100点破与不破的讨论并没有太大意义,当前已然处于底部区域,距离底部也不会太远。

Soochow securities(601555,Shares it)Strategy analysts/ZhuHaoMing:Look from whole,At the two city continue to fall in the kinetic energy of limited,But is still in the stage of grinding,Two city is still not restore confidence,Quantity can limited at the same time,Pessimism and magnification of the process。On the one hand economic see bottom resilience of the process remains to be seen,On the other hand with the center daily news into concentration areas,The more more performance mines the very likely,This also inhibit the two cities do more emotional。but,The grinding process of both sides can also see,Despite the pessimism hindered index increases,But it is possible grinding out a solid base。but,In the short term,The market will have repeatedly,2100 the discussion with disturbing may not mean much,The current are already on the bottom area,And it's not too far from the bottom。

 

 “吸金”魅力几何 “Suck gold”Charm geometry

  《大众证券报》:A股开户数连续三周回升,ETF也出现三周净申购,目前股市能否进一步吸引场外资金入市?是否进入较好的投资区间?

《Public stock certificate report》:A shares for three consecutive weeks accounts to bounce back,ETF also appears three weeks net explain buy,The market could further attract outside of the capital market?Whether into good investment interval?

  陈慧琴:场外资金入市不需要任何吸引,只要看见赚钱效应,自然会进来。尽管当前的市场逐渐寻底的概率正在变大,但寻底的过程比较“枯燥”,疲弱的市场依然难寻赚钱效应,因此场外资金当前还会继续处于观望与等待中。自从6214点以来,沪市的月K线从未出现过4连阴,而此轮下跌也已超过了60个交易日,因此无论历史能否重演,下跌周期确确实实已接近极限;另一方面,从7月份的各项数据来看,仅南京7月税收就已增长17%左右,经济逐渐回暖也会带动A股逐渐临近触底时间。因此,合适的介入时间正在慢慢到来,但拐点之后,反弹的可能性大大超过反转。

ChenHuiQin:Outside of the capital listed don't need any attract,As long as saw money effect,Natural would come in。Although the current market gradually found at the bottom of the probability is bigger,But found the process of the comparison“boring”,Weak market still is hard to find money effect,So off the current funds will continue watching and waiting in。Since 6214 points since,The Shanghai stock market on K line never happened four even Yin,And this round of fall has also more than 60 trading day,So no matter whether history repeat itself,Down cycle indeed has come close to the limit;On the other hand,From July's various data to see,Nanjing July only taxes are already about 17% increase,Economy gets warmer will also drive A shares gradually near A touch on the time。so,Appropriate intervention in time is slowly coming,But after the inflection point,Rebounding possibility considerably more than the reverse。

  朱浩明:从市场环境看,二级市场的竞争对手比较多,比如银行理财产品、信托、债券等;因此,在目前市场缺乏赚钱效应的背景下,场外资金会更多选择固定收益类的品种。对于目前较高的股息率来说,也应该有辩证的认识,一是股息率不是不变的,二是必须长时间的持股某家上市公司股票,而对普通投资者来说,往往选择博取短期收益,从而会承担更大的风险,真正能选择股息率较高品种的主要是对流动性较强要求的大资金。就短期看,市场在磨底过程中仍不具有很强的吸引力,场外资金仍在等待有明显的经济、政策信号的释放。

ZhuHaoMing:From market environment look,The secondary market competition more,Such as bank financing products、trust、bonds;so,In the present market under the background of the lack of money effect,Outside of the capital will be more choice fixed income kind of varieties。For the present high dividend yield is,There should also be dialectical understanding,One is the dividend yield is not constant,2 it is necessary for a long time a holding companies listed on the stock,And to average investor,Often choose from short-term gain,And this can take more risk,Really can choose the dividend yield is higher varieties of is mainly to the strong liquidity requirements of the big money。As for short-term see,In grinding process of the market is still not attractive,Outside of the capital is still waiting for a clear economic、The release of the policy signals。

 

 左侧重业绩 反弹看周期 On the left see cycle rebound performance

  《大众证券报》:医药股盘中不断走强,部分公司成长性突出,推此及彼,2100点一线的择股思路有哪些?防御性板块及成长股的选择需注意哪些?

《Public stock certificate report》:Pharmaceutical stocks the strengthening of plate,Some company growth outstanding,Push this and he,2100 points a line stock selection thought what?Defensive plate and growth stock choice should pay attention to what?

  陈慧琴:结合近几年来看,2100点附近也算比较低的区域,因此布局上也应当和指数的水平同步,即估值一定要合理;另一方面,由于当前正处于中报披露期,且逐渐进入后半程,业绩风险可能会进一步加大,因此对个股并不能一味只看业绩,还需要慎重考察股价与业绩的匹配度。部分涨幅过高、透支严重,甚至翻倍的个股,如果业绩的增长不能与股价增长同步,短期可能面临比较大的风险。

ChenHuiQin:Combined with in recent years and see,Near 2100 also calculate low area,So the layout should also be the level of the index and synchronization,That must be reasonable valuation;On the other hand,Because this is the center daily news of disclosure,And entering into the second,Performance risk may further increase,Therefore for stocks and can not blindly only see performance,Also requires careful investigation share price and performance of the matching degree。High up some of、Overdraw the serious,Even doubling of its stocks,If the performance of the growth can't and share price growth synchronization,Short-term may face bigger risk。

  对于成长性的选择,一方面需要关注成长的持续性、稳定性、独特性,还要具有一定的行业准入门槛,消费类成长股更需要符合一定时期的消费习惯,例如医药股最好能与老龄化相关,且具备较强的溢价能力,以此来抵抗降价的冲击;另一方面,成长股的市盈率、市净率要符合当前市场的大体水平,即便估值过高,对未来的符合增长情况也要有较大的确定把握,这样相对比较稳妥。

For the growth of choice,On the one hand to focus on the sustainable growth、stability、uniqueness,Also has a certain industry admittance threshold,Consumer growth stock more needs to accord with certain periods of consumption habits,Such as medicine strands of best can with ageing related,And have strong ability of the premium,In order to resist the impact of price;On the other hand,Growth stock city is filled with ratio、City net rate should accord with current market general level,Even if valuations,The growth of the future with also should have larger sure grasp,This is relatively safe。

  朱浩明:在市场不断探明底部的时候,入市布局属于左侧的投资,这时就必须关注上市公司的质量,可以基于中报预增加以判断,从而避免被业绩地雷炸伤,但左侧也要承受一定的风险释放的过程,遵守操作纪律也十分重要。此外,在市场趋近底部,或能够有量能增长奠定反弹基础后,还是应该选择周期性的行业,特别是早周期的行业加以布局,比如工程机械、水泥、保险等品种。

ZhuHaoMing:In the market continuously exploring bottom,On the left of the entry layout belong to investment,Then must pay attention to the quality of listed companies,Can be based on the increase in reported judgment,To avoid being performance mines wounded,But the left will absorb a certain amount of risk of release of the process,Observe operating discipline is also important。In addition,In a market approach the bottom,Or to have the quantity can lay the foundation growth rebound,Or should choose cyclical industries,Especially early period of industry to layout,Such as engineering machinery、cement、Insurance breed such as。

  对于蓝筹股,也不否认部分个股在经历上半年下跌后,长期投资价值已较为突出;而成长性较强的品种,特别是上半年表现较好的食品、医药等应该逢高减磅,如果市场的预期发生转变,势必会造成资金的流动、腾挪,从而带来一定风险。

For blue chip,Also don't deny that individual stocks fell in the first half of the experience,Long-term investment value has more outstanding;And growth strong varieties,Especially in the first half performance good food、Medicine should meet high shake,If market expectations change,Will naturally cause capital flow、Move STH,Thus to bring some risk。

  记者 李喆 惠晨晨

Reporter 李喆 HuiChenChen



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