徐沛宇 陈姗姗

XuPeiYu Chen SAN SAN

　　连续3个月下跌的国内成品油价格，本月或将迎来全面上调，其中航空煤油结算价格日前已率先上涨。

For three months down domestic prices of refined petroleum products，This month or will have full rises，Including kerosene settlement price has has begun to rise。

　　《第一财经日报》从多方获悉，根据国家发改委的《关于公布2012年8月份航空煤油进口到岸完税价格通知》，中石油和中石化分别于8月2、3日上调了8月份航空煤油结算价格，上调幅度约为1.4%。

《The first financial daily》Learn from various，According to the national development and reform commission《Released on August 2012 kerosene import price cif tax payment notice》，Petrochina and sinopec respectively on August 2、August 3, raised the kerosene settlement price，Raised by about 1.4%。

　　资讯机构金银岛监测信息显示，自2012年8月1日起，中石油销售公司供中航油的3#航空煤油出厂价格由6708元/吨调整为6804元/吨，上调96元/吨；供其他机构的3#航空煤油由6768元/吨调整为6864元/吨，上调96元/吨。中石化的上调幅度与中石油相同。

Information institutions treasure island monitoring information display，Since after August 1, 2012，Oil company in sales for cao's 3 # kerosene ex-factory price by 6708 yuan/ton adjustment for 6804 yuan/ton，Raised 96 yuan/ton；For other institutions of 3 # kerosene by 6768 yuan/ton adjustment for 6864 yuan/ton，Raised 96 yuan/ton。The increase in the scope and oil is the same。

　　上个月，国产航空煤油的综合采购成本价刚刚大幅下调740元/吨，当时也是国产航空煤油今年以来的第三次下调。金银岛分析师李亚丹对本报表示，航煤价格机制已完全与国际接轨，紧跟国际油价走势，这次涨价就反映了国际油价近期的上涨态势。

Last month，Domestic kerosene comprehensive purchasing cost price just slashed 740 yuan/ton，At that time, too domestic aviation kerosene since the third time this year of decline。Analysts LiYaDan treasure island to the financial times，HangMei price mechanism has been completely and the international community，With international oil price movements，The price reflects the recent run-up oil prices in the international situation。

　　不过，多家行业分析人士对记者指出，即使8月的航油价格每吨上调近百元，但与去年同期相比依然便宜约12%，而目前又处于全年最盈利的暑期旺季，因此对航空公司的盈利来说影响更大的将是客座率和票价水平。

but，Several industry analysts to reporters said，Even though the August cao every tons price rise nearly yuan，But compared with the same period last year is still about 12% cheaper，And at present and in the most profitable year summer season，So the airlines for profit more influence will be 客座率 and ticket price level。

　　国金证券(600109,股吧)的最新研报预计，由于旅游需求受经济下滑的影响明显小于商务需求，三季度旺季有望实现量价齐升，加上前期油价下降的叠加，今年第三季度航空主业利润有望同比增长20%~30%左右。

Countries gold securities(600109,Shares it)The latest research is expected to report，Because of the economic downturn by tourism demand affects obviously less than business needs，Three quarters of the peak season is expected to JiSheng quantity and price，With oil prices down the of superposition，Aviation industry profit in the third quarter of this year is expected to be up 20% ~ 30%。

　　航煤价格上涨后，汽柴油价格则可能在本周末上调。据多家资讯机构测算，截至8月3日，国内汽柴油价格挂靠的布伦特、迪拜、辛塔三地原油价格变化率在5.5%～5.9%之间，已突破了4%的国内成品油调价红线；到8月10日，22个工作日的调价要求即可得到满足，届时汽柴油调价窗口将打开。

After HangMei prices，Gasoline and diesel prices may be raised in this weekend。According to several information agency estimates，As of August 3,，Domestic gasoline and diesel prices of call brent、dubai、Michael essien tower crude oil prices in three rate 5.5% ~ 5.9%，Break through the 4% of the domestic product oil refiners red line；To August 10,，22 working days of pricing requirements can be met，When steam diesel refiners window will open。

　　在汽柴油看涨预期下，各地炼厂掀起了推涨的热潮。金银岛监测全国指数显示，上周全国93#汽油平均价格指数为8985，环比上涨3%；柴油平均价格指数为7866，环比上涨18%。另据卓创资讯监测，截至上月末，多数地区的柴油批发价格已位于批发限价以上，少数地区已是批零一价；柴油累计涨幅达300元/吨以上，汽油累计涨幅也在200～400元/吨左右。

In the steam diesel bullish expected，Refinery around a push up boom。The national treasure island monitoring index showed，Last week the national # 93 gas average price index for 8985，Annulus comparing rose 3%；Diesel average price index for 7866，Annulus comparing rose 18%。Another zhuo and according to information monitoring，By the end of the，Most areas of the wholesale price of diesel in wholesale price has more，A few areas already is a retail price；Diesel accumulative total of 300 yuan/ton rise above，Gasoline in 200-have also jumped accumulated 400 yuan/tons。

　　卓创资讯分析师王能表示，目前有的成品油销售公司柴油资源正常，但却在最高限价上停售，其主要目的则为了制造紧张气氛，促进本轮涨价能及时落实。不过，“未来汽柴油价格仍将有回落的可能。”王能说，从全国来看，柴油批发价已处高位，社会库存较高，而刚性需求不旺，下游消化缓慢，即使落实涨价，后期若需求无较大增量，价格仍或下跌。

Zhuo and information analysts king to said，At present some oil sales company diesel resources to normal，But the highest price in a stop on sale，Its main purpose is to make the tension，Promote this price in time for the implementation。but，“The future will still have a petrol and diesel prices down possible。”The king said to，nationally，Diesel has high in wholesale price，Social stock higher，And rigid slack demand，Downstream slow digestion，Even if implement price，If a large increase in demand is late，The price is still or down。

　　李亚丹预测，此次汽柴油价格上调幅度将在300元～350元/吨之间。

LiYaDan forecast，The gasoline and diesel prices would be expected to increase in 300 yuan to 350 yuan/ton between。