许钊颖

XuZhaoYing

　　嘉宾

guests

　　约瑟夫·邦尼奇（Josef Bonnici）

, Joseph's bonnie（Josef Bonnici）

　　马耳他央行行长

Malta central bank governors

　　米罗斯拉夫·辛格（Miroslav Singer）

Miroslav stoch came singh（Miroslav Singer）

　　捷克央行行长

The Czech central bank governors

　　杰拉德·里昂斯（Gerard Lyons）

Gerald, Lyon（Gerard Lyons）

　　渣打银行首席经济学家

Standard chartered bank's chief economist

　　安德鲁·拉吉爵士（Sir Andrew Large）

Andrew lachish jazz（Sir Andrew Large）

　　英格兰银行前副行长

The bank of England's former vice President

　　约瑟夫·邦尼奇（Josef Bonnici） 马耳他央行行长

, Joseph's bonnie（Josef Bonnici） Malta central bank governors

　

　欧元区各国财政治理结构必须得到加强 The eurozone countries financial governance structure must be reinforced

　　欧元区继续面临许多前所未有的挑战，可以说成员国都意识到了问题的严重性并开始进行相应的大力度改革。这些措施都围绕着财政紧缩、增强竞争力和刺激经济增长。如西班牙的劳动力市场改革，意大利、爱尔兰和葡萄牙的公共行政改革也在欧盟-IMF的项目轨道上前进。但债务市场的紧张仍没有结束，尽管欧盟的决策者都在努力，但是主权债务仍在发酵，后果仍然不确定。

The eurozone continue to face many of the unprecedented challenges，Can say members are aware of the seriousness of this problem and start for the corresponding big reform efforts。These measures around the financial crunch、Competitiveness and stimulate economic growth。As Spain's Labour market reforms，Italy、Ireland and Portugal public administrative reform in the IMF, the European Union also-project direction。But the debt market is still not over nervous，Although the eu decision makers are trying to，But debt is still in the fermentation sovereignty，The consequences are still not certain。

　　目前最主要的问题是在经济下行期间的财政紧缩措施，衰退的GDP增长伴随着降低财政赤字和债务带来的苦难。由于市场的预先定价机制，金融机构都试图坚持公共和私人部门的债务。脱钩减少了金融的不平衡并纠正了过去银行过多的资产积累，但是这个过程也降低了正常的宏观经济增长速度。欧洲央行希望通过一系列措施来避免一场信用崩溃和银行融资危机，包括去年12月和今年2月份采取的长期再融资操作（LTRO），这些操作帮助稳定了银行向私人部门的借贷和持有政府债券。但是，由于银行偏好将额外的大量资金投入欧洲央行的存款机制中，这些操作的有效性已经下降了。

At present the main problem is in the economic downside of fiscal tightening measures during，The decline of the GDP growth by reducing financial deficit and debt with the suffering caused。Since the market advance pricing mechanism，Financial institutions are trying to adhere to the public and the private sector debt。Decoupling reduced financial imbalances and correct the bank assets accumulated over the past too much，But this process is also reduced the normal macro economic growth。The European central bank to hope that through a series of measures to avoid a credit crunch and bank financing crisis，Including last December and February this year to take long-term refinancing operation（LTRO），These operations to help stabilize the Banks to the private sector lending and hold the government bonds。but，Because the Banks will be a large number of additional funds preference into the European central bank savings mechanism，The effectiveness of these operations has dropped。

　　欧元的创立降低了借贷成本，而且消除了欧元区内部的借贷汇率风险。公共部门和私人部门融资成本的降低使政府债务上升，私人部门杠杆率提高。回顾过去可以发现，欧元创立的头7年是政府达成财政紧缩的最佳时机，在此之后，不平衡和脆弱性都不断累积起来了。

The establishment of the euro reduce borrowing costs，And eliminates the lending within the euro area exchange rate risk。The public sector and private sector financing cost make government debt is rising，The private sector leverage ratio improve。Looking back on the past can be found，The euro was founded seven years on the head is the best time to fiscal restraint，After this，Don't balance and vulnerability to accumulate all up。

　　在一些国家，体制的特点同样发挥了重要作用。我之前在欧洲审计署的希腊同事告诉我，希腊政府缺乏有效性的文化是其政策制定的祸首，他也指出了希腊公共部门缺乏有效的内部控制系统，审计部门缺乏足够的权力来使公共资金得到有效运行。

In some countries，The characteristics of the system also has played an important role。I in Europe the Greek before colleagues told me，The Greek government lack of the validity of the culture is its policy of the culprit，He also points out that the Greek public sector is lack of effective internal control system，Audit department lacks enough power to make public funds to get effective operation。

　　在绝大多数欧元区国家，财政紧缩伴随着宏观经济下行的威胁。在目前的情况下，有宏观经济螺旋式下降的危险。虚弱的经济增长导致政府税收的减少，这又反过来增加了赤字和债务的比重，因此需要进一步的预算收紧和紧缩措施。

In the vast majority of the eurozone countries，Fiscal tightening with macro economic downside threat。In the present circumstances，A macro economic spiral downside risks。The weak economic growth to reduce government revenues，This, in turn, increases the deficit and the debt of proportion，Therefore need further budget tightening and austerity measures。

　　债务占GDP的比重越高，采取集体行动就越发困难，尤其是在经济不景气的情况下。此外，债务也变得更加不可持续，尤其是当经济增长率低于债务利息的时候。

Debt of GDP is higher，The more difficult to take collective action，Especially in the circumstance of economic recession。In addition，Debt is also becoming more unsustainable，Especially when the economic growth rate lower than debt interest。

　　同时，经济衰退期的结构性改革既不容易也不受欢迎，这些提高竞争力的措施需要时间才能生效。换句话说，由紧缩措施导致的压力是现时的，但却需要较长的时间才能生效。

At the same time，The economic recession is not easy to structural reform is not popular，These measures of improving the competitive need time to take effect。In other words，By tightening measures is the result of the pressure，But it takes a long time to take effect。

　　在目前的情况下，要求问题国家降低赤字是不可避免的，主要的问题是是否可以通过政府支出和税收选择来减轻经济下滑的风险和震荡。比如，逐渐增加欧盟的资源和资金来帮助进行必要的结构性调整。这种选择可能意味着加强欧盟预算，由于不是所有国家情况都糟糕，也许有其他的融资选择，尤其是当一些成员国的债券利率较低，甚至低于通胀率的情况下，欧盟层面的紧缩和统一救助将会成为所需结构性改革的有力催化剂。

In the present circumstances，Requirement countries to reduce the deficit is inevitable，The main problem is whether can through the government spending and taxes choose to reduce economic downside risks and shock。For example，Gradually increase the eu's resources and capital to help make the necessary structural adjustment。This choice may mean that strengthening the eu budget，Because not all countries are bad，Perhaps there are other financing options，Especially when some members of the bond interest rate is low，Even below the inflation rate，The European Union level crunch and unified aid will become a powerful catalyst for structural reform。

　　需要明白的一点是，在积极应对投资者和金融市场压力的情况下，目前各个政府都更加向自己国家的选民和议会负责，目前金融市场对一国金融市场的可持续性的考量更加综合全面，即使遵守《马斯特里赫特条约》的标准都不足以使金融市场稳定，因为经济其他方面的不平衡可能损害市场的信心。

Need to understand that the thing is，In the financial market actively respond to investors and under pressure，At present various government even more of their country to voters and responsible for parliament，The current financial market in one country financial market of the sustainability of more comprehensive considerations，Even if abide by《Maastricht treaty》Standards are not enough to make the financial market stability，Because the economy the other aspects of the imbalance may damage the confidence of the market。

　　欧洲央行在对危机的回应中扮演着重要的角色。除了传统的利率工具，欧洲央行引进了一系列非标准化操作，如采取LTRO来帮助货币政策的有效实行。过去几年的经验已经表明，需要以新的方式来重新建立欧洲经济治理的体系，其目标是超越短期视野，如对希腊的救助。为了提供更好的支持，欧洲金融稳定基金（EFSF）将被欧洲金融稳定机制（ESM）代替,这个机制将是永久的救助基金，并有额外的防火墙和更强的纪律。从中期来说，则要限制政府赤字和债务，并提高国家的竞争力。

The European central bank to crisis response in plays an important role。In addition to the traditional tools interest rates，The European central bank introduced a series of the standardized operation，If take LTRO to help implement the effective monetary policy。Over the past few years have shown that the experience，Need a new way to create the European economy management system，The goal is to transcend short-term view，As the aid to Greece。In order to provide better support，The European financial stability fund（EFSF）Will be the European financial stability mechanism（ESM）Instead of,This mechanism will be permanent relief fund，And there are extra firewall and stronger discipline。For from the middle，Is to limit the government deficits and debt，And improve the competitiveness of the country。

　　在财政统一方面，欧洲有加强财政治理措施的共识，并认为《稳定和增长公约》应该得到加强。目前的想法是，为了避免危机再次发生，各国的财政治理结构必须得到加强。为了实现这个目的，财政契约要求各欧元区成员国每年有结构性平衡的预算。监管将会得到加强，对经济政策的监督也将更加综合全面。

In financial unity，Europe has strengthen financial management measures of consensus，And think《Stability and growth pact》Should be strengthened。The idea is，In order to avoid a crisis to happen again，The countries of the financial governance structure must be reinforced。In order to achieve this goal，Financial contract required the eurozone members are structural balanced budget each year。Supervision will be strengthened，The supervision of economic policy will also be more comprehensive。

　　尤其是，可持续的预算计划将通过引入中期预算目标来实现，这包含了符合中期经济增长率的增长和公共开支。财政契约同样也会通过引入相应的惩罚机制来确保债务和赤字占GDP的比重不超过一定水平。

especially，Sustainable budget plan will be introduced by the budget goal to realize the middle，This includes the middle with growth rate of the economy growth and public spending。Financial contract will also by introducing the corresponding punishment mechanism to ensure that debt and deficit in GDP does not exceed a certain level。

　　在金融稳定方面，包含了欧洲系统性风险委员会（ESBR）的欧洲金融监管体系是一个新的机制，要求国家的监管部门同欧洲的监管部门配合来识别和分析系统性风险。以马耳他为例，我们有意将目前的常务委员会替换为一个共同的金融稳定委员会，这个委员会包含来自马耳他央行和马耳他金融服务局的代表，他们将共同执行监管和评估金融稳定风险的职能。其目标是向两个机构提供制定政策的建议，维护金融稳定，并加强金融系统弹性并最小化系统性风险。由于要防范来自系统重要性机构的金融风险，所以同样需要对影子银行有更好的管理，对此，巴塞尔协议Ⅲ缩小了对来自影子银行求助的管理同一般机构的差距。

In the financial stability，Contains a European systemic risk council（ESBR）European financial regulatory system is a new mechanism，Ask the state regulators with European regulators to identify and analysis with systemic risk。To Malta, for example，We are interested in the standing committee of the current replacement for a common financial stability council，The committee includes central bank and Malta from Malta the representative of the financial services authority，They will join together to perform supervision and evaluation function of risk financial stability。The goal is to two institutions provide policy Suggestions，Maintain financial stability，And strengthen the financial system elastic and minimize systemic risk。Because want to prevent from system of financial risk importance institutions，So also need to shadow Banks have better management，this，The Basel agreement Ⅲ narrowed from the shadow of the management of the Banks for help with general agency gap。

　　杰拉德·里昂斯（Gerard Lyons）渣打银行首席经济学家

Gerald, Lyon（Gerard Lyons）Standard chartered bank's chief economist

　

　朝着全球多元化的货币储备体系迈进 The currency reserves diversification in the global system to move forward

　　国际货币体系本身也有一些自动的调节机制。我们可以看到亚洲有较高的储蓄率，而英美金融机构无法有效地吸引到储蓄，这和制度设计是密切相关的。金融服务应该服务于整个国家经济的需要，而不是遵循某一特定模式，我想这也是问题的部分症结所在。

The international monetary system itself also have automatic regulation mechanism。We can see Asia have a higher saving rate，And the British and American financial institutions can't effectively drawn to the savings，This and system design are closely related。Financial services should service in the whole national economy needs，And not follow a specific pattern，I think that is also part of the problem at fault。

　　自去年起欧洲就面临经济方面诸多挑战，而欧元本身使得这些问题更加难以得到解决。与其他地区相比，西方有更多的个人机构投资者，相比7900亿欧元的其他操作，去年欧洲各央行仅提供了4400亿欧元的援助，这是远远不够的。目前全球央行的资产负债表达到了18万亿美元，占到全球GDP总量的30%，而且这种趋势仍在继续。

Since last year the European will face many challenges in the economy，And the euro itself makes some of these problems are more difficult to be solved。Compared with other regions，Western have more individual investors，Compared to 790 billion euros ($) other operations，Last year the European central bank has just offered 440 billion euros of aid，This is not enough。The central bank assets and liabilities of the current global express to $18 trillion，Account for 30% of global GDP，And the trend is still going on。

　　欧洲仍然迫切希望能够从其他地方吸引资金来解决问题，但是很显然新兴市场国家并没有能力来消化吸收这些数额庞大的赤字。所以目前他们能够做的就是尽量使自己的资产多元化。虽然目前世界上60%的储备货币仍然是美元，而新兴市场国家仅占8%，但如果问及新兴市场国家的看法，他们普遍会说自己持有的没有减少，但鉴于金融危机中美国的做法，他们不想继续增持美元了。因此他们在进行的是一种被动的以多元化来替代美元的策略，即仍然储备美元，只是增量不断下降，这种趋势还将继续。

Europe still urgent hope to be able to attract funds from other places to solve the problem，But obviously emerging market countries and have no ability to digest absorb these large amount of deficit。So now they can do is to try to make their own assets diversity。Although at present the 60% of the world's reserve currency is still dollars，And emerging market countries accounted for only 8%，But if asked about emerging market countries view，They generally will say they held no less，But in view of the financial crisis in the practice of the United States，They don't want to continue increasing dollar。So they are is a kind of passive diversified to replace the dollar strategy，That is still reserve dollars，Only incremental going down，This trend will continue。

　　另外不能忽视的一个方面是经济上的主要趋势。一个是贸易模式，尽管身处危机之中，但从总量计算，世界经济仍然在继续增长。在西方国家经济形势走低的情况下，新兴市场国家的贸易量不断上升，甚至超过了同发达国家的贸易量。如果这种趋势持续下去，也许未来他们会更多地考虑直接采用新兴市场国家如中国、印度、印尼、巴西货币支付，以便利贸易结算，并加大它们货币在外汇储备中所占的比重。我认为，我们正朝向一个全球多元化的货币储备体系迈进。

Also cannot ignore one of the aspects of the main trend is economic。One is the trade mode，Although in crisis，But the total amount calculation，The world economy continues to grow。In western countries the economic situation under the condition of low，The volume of trade emerging market countries rise，Even more than the volume of trade with developed countries。If this trend to continue，Maybe in the future they will think more about the emerging market directly countries like China、India、Indonesia、Brazil's currency to pay，So as to facilitate trade settlement，And increase their currency in foreign currency reserves in the proportion of the。I think，We are headed to a global diversified monetary reserves system to move forward。

　　另一方面是新兴市场国家的主权面临的挑战，这种挑战主要来源于跨国企业。西方的资产现在变得非常便宜，这将可能改变国家和企业的关系，出现国家身份认同的危机。世界上最大的200家跨国公司中，26家的资产超过了政府资产的50%，其后的26家则控制超过10%的政府资产，所以最大的200家跨国公司中的前1/4对政府有巨大的影响力，而且现在它们是决定目前投资方向的主要动力。这些都是值得注意的因素。

On the other hand is emerging market countries of the sovereignty of the challenges，The challenge mainly by multinational enterprise。Western assets now become very cheap，This could change the relationship between the state and enterprise，National identity crisis there。The world's largest 200 multinationals，26 of the assets of more than 50% of the assets of the government，Behind the 26 is control more than 10% of the government assets，So of the 200 largest multinational company of the first quarter of the government have great influence，And now they are decided to present the main power investment direction。These are notable factors。

　　安德鲁·拉吉爵士（Sir Andrew Large）英格兰银行前副行长

Andrew lachish jazz（Sir Andrew Large）The bank of England's former vice President

　　

恢复市场信心唯一的出路是可信的政策 Restore market confidence the only way out is credible policies

　　我认为欧元区的经济增长与传统视野下的经济如需求、供给和不平衡等，没有太大的关系。我想要探讨的是杠杆和信任问题。

I think that the euro area's economic growth and the traditional view of the economy under such as demand、Supply and don't balance, etc，Do not have too great relationship。I want to discuss is the lever and the problem of trust。

　　之前我们的杠杆率过高，信任崩塌，问题仍然存在，最后变成了投资者来做艰难的选择，这种情况是不可持续的。金融市场的信心需要得到恢复。而目前市场的疑问是，如果杠杆率下降的话，可以下降多少？而欧元区的金融救助希望达到的效果是以最少的成本换取最大限度的投资者信心，因为只有这样才能够创造投资。

Before we leverage is too high，Trust collapses，Problems still exist，Finally become investors to make a difficult choice，This kind of situation is unsustainable。The confidence of financial markets need to be restored。And the question is at present the market，If the leverage ratio down words，Can down how much？And the euro zone's financial aid to achieve the effect is the least cost for maximum investor confidence，Because the only way to create the investment。

　

　这里有几点很关键： Here are some was key：

　　首先，如果你的货币是储备货币的话会有优势，这解释了美国的情况。对于欧洲来说，我们需要的是债券市场的投资者信任我们，但是换取信任需要的是效果达到预期水平，这里面的要素我们都很熟悉。目前，财政扩张不可行，我也不赞成不切实际的行动，而是应该朝向更为可信的财政一体化和银行去杠杆化的道路前进。我们目前老是说要做什么，但我们实际上能做什么？这也是投资者在考虑的问题。

first，If your money is the reserve currency will have an advantage，This explains the United States。For Europe to，What we need is the bond market investors trust us，But for trust need is to achieve the expected effect level，Here the elements we are familiar with。At present，Fiscal expansion is not workable，I don't approve of unrealistic action，But should be more credible fiscal towards integration and the bank to leveraged road ahead。We are always said to do??????，But we can actually do??????？This is also in the questions about the investors。

　　如果能够投资于基础设施建设，你可以看到基础设施的拓展，这将会得到投资者的支持，因为投资回报是可以预期的。同样，民众也可以从这些项目中受益，因此不管是在需求还是供给方面，这种影响都是非常积极的。

If can invest in infrastructure construction，You can see the infrastructure development，This will get the support of the investors，Because the return on investment is to be expected。The same，People can also benefit from these projects，So whether in demand or supply，This effect is very positive。

　　但是，同样我们也还面临一些挑战。首先是能够按时间计划落实项目所需资金，在目前不稳定的局面下，很容易会发生未预料到的或者极端的情况。因为目前我们已经有关于货币撤出流通等问题的讨论，如果有国家收回通货，所有的压力就会转移到剩下的合作者那里。我不认为所有人都能够提供关于信用问题的政策。

but，Also we are facing some challenges。First is to carry out plan according to the time the funds required for the project，In the present situation of stability，Very easy to happen unexpected or extreme conditions。Because we already have the money withdrawn from circulation problems of the discussion，If a country of inflation back，All the pressure will be transferred to the rest of the partners there。I don't think all people to be able to offer the credit problems about the policy。

　　另一个中等水平的问题是，通胀水平需要控制在不影响大局的范围内。但问题不能完全避免，如果连续5年有5%的通货膨胀率，那么成本就会大大上升。这样，尽管出发点是好的，但最终结果却是成问题的。实际上，欧洲在这方面已经存在严重的问题，我们需要德国将通货膨胀控制在适当的水平，以便边缘问题国家能够调整并解决自身的经济问题。

Another problem is the medium level，The need to control inflation no impact on the overall situation of the range。But the problem cannot avoid completely，If 5% of the five consecutive years of inflation，So the cost will greatly increase。this，Although the starting point is good，But the end result is a problem。In fact，In Europe in this field already exists serious problem，We need to Germany will inflation at the appropriate level，So that countries can adjust and edge problems to resolve their own economic problems。

　　我的另一个关注点是长期的动荡，我们如何才能避免再次发生危机？很显然，大家没有认识到金融不稳定这个问题在整体上的重要性，人们总是相信金融不稳定会沿着自己的周期发展。但目前来看也许我们错了，我们做了很多避免未来再次掉入陷阱的努力，但很不幸的是，政策体系的问题并没有得到很多国家的关注，这不只是有政策委员会的英国，还有欧洲和世界上的许多其他国家。事实上这个问题很难解决，因为没有人知道政策工具是如何运作并产生效果的，协调也非常困难。你不可能和政府合作，因为政府要求的只是一国的经济增长；不可能和银行家合作，因为他们追求的是利润。

Another concern is the long-term unrest，How can we avoid the crisis？obviously，You don't realize financial instability, on the whole, the problem of importance，People always believe financial instability along the cycle of their development。But at present to see perhaps we were wrong，We did a lot of avoid falling into the trap again into the future efforts，But unfortunately，The policy system of problems and didn't get a lot of national attention，This is not just a policy committee of Britain，And Europe and much of the rest of the world。In fact the problem is difficult to solve，Because no one knows how to operate policy tools and produce effect，Coordination is very difficult。You can't and government cooperation，Because the government asking is a country's economic growth；Impossible and bankers cooperation，Because they are in pursuit of profits。

　　当每个人都关注繁荣的时候，是不可能有长期持续的经济增长的。增长如何才会发生？当一批人负责确保整个去杠杆化过程的可控性的时候，这些人本身也必须是可信的，要确保信用的流动，并引导他们重新进入经济循环中。

When everyone attention when prosperity，Is there can't be a long-term sustained economic growth。How growth would happen？When a group of people is responsible for ensuring that the whole to leveraged the control process，These people itself must also be credible，To ensure the flow of credit，And guides them back into the economic cycle。

　　因此我们有两个目标，一个是金融稳定，另一个是创造增长。我非常担心，因为对于人们关心的整体的金融稳定，我们还没有什么有效措施，通常大家会认为通过创造增长，都能够得到好处。但是，一个拥有双重目标的政府不可能有好的业绩，政府必须明确到底是寻求经济增长，还是寻求金融稳定。如何考察业绩呢？两者的工具也不一样。当你关注金融稳定时你需要有预见性，而关注增长则需要长期视野。

So we have two goals，One is the financial stability，Another is to create growth。I am very worried about，Because for people care about the overall financial stability，We still have no effective measures，Usually they will think through the create growth，To be able to benefit。but，With a dual goal of government can't have good performance，The government must clear exactly is for economic growth，Or for financial stability。How to examine performance？The tool is not the same。When you pay attention to financial stability when you need to have the foresight，And growth is needed to focus on long-term vision。

　　总的来说，恢复市场信心是关键，唯一的出路是需要可信的政策来确保。而且我认为信心是一个逐级实现的目标，完成较低水平的信心重塑，就需要继续往上走。从长期来看，我相信政策和管理体系会实现一体化，这是非常重要的。谁知道我们现在为增长所做的努力，会不会埋下下次危机的导火索呢？

In general，Restore market confidence is the key，The only way out is to need reliable policy to make sure。And I think confidence is a level of the realization of the goal，Finish low confidence remodeling，Will need to continue to go up。In the long run，I believe that policy and management system can realize the integration，This is very important。Who knows us now for growth efforts，Will not bury the next crisis? The fuse？

　　米罗斯拉夫·辛格（Miroslav Singer）

Miroslav stoch came singh（Miroslav Singer）

　

　捷克央行行长 The Czech central bank governors

　　重塑欧洲竞争力 Remodeling European competitiveness

　　首先，如果没有德国资助欧债危机的救助措施的话，欧债危机将会继续发酵。捷克是一个债权国家，但都是由小储蓄者组成，中等以上的家庭更多地拥有金融资产而非债务。目前金融部门没有显著压力，捷克有非常外向的经济，进出口占到了GDP总额的80%左右，而贸易对象主要是欧洲国家，目前主要的贸易伙伴是欧盟和德国。因此，我们也不愿见到危机继续恶化。

first，If no Germany's debt crisis funding relief measure words，The debt crisis will continue to rise。The Czech republic is a creditor's right country，But is the small savers composition，Medium above family more to have financial assets rather than debt。The current financial department no significant pressure，The Czech republic has very outgoing economy，Import and export accounted for about 80% of GDP，While the trade object basically is the European countries，At present the main trading partners is the European Union and Germany。so，We don't want to see crisis continue to deteriorate。

　　但是，我希望借用Philip Coggan在他的论文《承诺：债务、货币和新的世界秩序》中说过的话：“经济史是债权国和债务国的斗争史，属性就是为所辖金钱的领土而战，货币有两个主要功能：交换和价值储备。历史上，这两个功能一直有冲突……从更广泛的意义上讲，货币的扩张者是债务国而货币的约束者是债权国。”

but，I hope to borrow Philip Coggan in his paper《commitment：debt、Currency and the new world order》Said in：“Creditor and debtor economic history is the DouZhengShi，Attribute is responsibility for money territory and war，Money has had two major functions：Exchange and a store of value。history，The two functions have been conflict...From a broad sense，Monetary expansion is the currency of the debtor and creditor is bound。”

　　历史上，债权国倾向于强制实施控制货币发行的体系，如金本位、布雷顿森林体系下的固定汇率和欧元，从而防止债务国用贬值的货币来偿还债务。金本位体系在上世纪30年代崩溃，布雷顿森林体系在上世纪70年代崩溃，而目前，欧元也摇摇欲坠，也许可以被称为有独立央行和通胀目标的后布雷顿森林体系。

history，Creditor country tend to enforce the system control of the money supply，Such as the gold standard、The bretton woods system of fixed exchange rate and the euro，So as to prevent the currency devaluation in debtor to repay its debts。Gold standard system in the 1930 s collapse，The bretton woods system in the 1970 s collapse，And the，Euro falter，Perhaps can be called independent central bank and inflation targets after the bretton woods system。

　　我个人认为，这场危机是市场经济和只有少量监管的金融体系的深度危机，这些特征在

I personally think，The crisis is a market economy and only a few of the supervision of the financial system in depth crisis，These characteristics in

　　欧盟仍然可以看到。美国也许是部分的导火索，但三年来它并没有深刻影响欧债危机，反而成了主要的稳定维护者。多亏了美联储的货币互换，欧盟的储蓄者和投资者不必担心欧元区的一般流动性问题。我希望接下来美国的选举不要改变这种状况。

The European Union can still be seen。The United States may be part of the fuse，But three years it and no profound influence on the European debt crisis，The stability of the main became instead defender。Thanks to the federal reserve currency swaps，The eu's savers and investors don't have to worry about the euro zone's general liquidity problems。I hope the next elections in America don't change this situation。

　　危机的解决方式包括控制去杠杆化和在发达国家中重塑欧洲和欧元区的竞争力。去杠杆化的诉求很明确，但是重塑欧洲竞争力同样非常必要。否则欧洲就不能重新获得真实的经济增长率来稳定欧元区的现有状况。我希望欧元区也能够尝试其他高附加值的生产活动。

Crisis solution including control to leveraged in developed countries and in Europe and the euro area to competitiveness。To leveraged appeal is very clear，But European competitiveness is very necessary to reshape the same。Otherwise Europe cannot regain the real economic growth rate of the euro area's current status to stability。I hope that the euro zone can also try other high value-added production activities。

　　很多人认为德国从欧元区获益最多，或者至少比目前的问题国家得到的好处要多。但必须注意到的是，德国在欧元区保有最慢的工资成本增长速度。实际上，为了达到和德国一样的发展水平，南方的问题国家需要更大力度的措施。同时，从德国的贸易模式来看，在过去10年欧元区占到了德国大约40%的出口份额，而在此之前大约是60%。尽管德国现在的债务很少，主权债务风险很低，但目前越来越有随边缘国家波动的风险。

Many people think that the most benefit from Germany from the euro zone，Or at least better than the current problems get the benefits of the country。But must pay attention to it，Germany in the euro zone have the slowest wage costs growth。In fact，In order to achieve and the development level of Germany，To the south of the country needs more problems the strength of the measures。At the same time，From Germany's trade patterns and see，In the past ten years the eurozone accounted for about 40% of the German export share，And before this is about 60%。Although Germany is now little debt，Sovereign debt risk is very low，But now more and more with the edge to fluctuations in the country。

　　目前有许多关于欧元区层面政治进一步整合的长期计划，用以稳定市场。且不说这些计划在未来财政转移支付中孰好孰坏，以及市场对欧洲长期计划的怀疑，最早的计划目标在未来几年中主要国家的选举中也将有很大影响。

There are many about the eurozone level political further integration of long-term plan，To stabilize the market。Let alone these plans in the future financial transfer payment which is in the good and bad，And for the European market long-term plan doubt，The first project goals in the next few years mainly in the national elections will also have the very big effect。

　　目前欧洲央行更多是受到形势和自身地位的限制，而不是德国的限制。我猜德国对欧洲央行规则的坚持，是害怕使欧元区主要利益从属于次要利益的风险。德国目前面临着国内中产储蓄者对自己国家可能面临的失败的愤怒，我想这不符合欧元区任何国家的利益。

At present the European central bank is more by their own status of the situation and restriction，Instead of a German restrictions。I guess the European central bank rules of Germany insisted，Is afraid of the eurozone main interests from the interests of the secondary belongs to risk。Germany has faced domestic middle savers to their country could face the failure of anger，I think it does not accord with the euro zone any national interests。