证券时报记者：怎么看目前国内经济形势？何时会走出低谷？

Securities times：How to see the current domestic economic situation？When will it went out of whack？

　　钱翔：每个人的观点不一样，长期来看中国经济增长潜在增长率7%已经确认。从去年四季度12月份降准货币转向，三次降准两次降息，效果会逐渐显现，一般持续六个月，很多实业感受到货币环境放松，资金成本下降在今年二季度比较明显。另外在经济向下时，很多企业采取去库存的手段，在看不清未来的情况下先把库存消化掉把资金回笼起来。所以今年二季度经济下滑速度快超过预期，当中很大一个因素是去库存。6月底，去库存已告一段落，预计三季度企业还有一个补库存，信心来自宏观经济的回暖。预计整个三季度经济会比二季度小幅回升，但回升幅度不会很大，企业信心不会很快恢复。

QianXiang：Each person's point of view is different，In the long run China's economic growth potential growth rate 7% has been confirmed。From the fourth quarter of last year in December to drop must currency，Three times must drop two cuts，The effect will be gradually revealed，Normally last for six months，Many industry feel relaxed monetary conditions，Capital costs fell in the second quarter of this year more apparent。In the economy is down，Many enterprise to take to the means of inventory，In could not see the future of the inventory first digest the money collecting up。So in the second quarter of this year economic downturn faster than expected，A big factor of is to inventory。At the end of June，To inventory is ending，Enterprise and a third quarter is expected to fill inventory，Confidence comes from the macroeconomic buoyancy。The third quarter is expected to economic than in the second quarter of a modest to bounce back，But rebounded range will not be huge，Business confidence will not recover soon。

　　证券时报记者：您看好消费品中哪些行业？

Securities times：What are you optimistic about consumer goods industries？

　　钱翔：如果看得长远一点，我把消费分成可选消费、必需消费、消费辅助包括像消费服务领域，更看好可选消费领域和消费辅助的领域，这两个领域在目前中国都比较薄弱，另外这两个领域国外有清晰的盈利模式可以学习。市场还处于迸发期，所以这些行业空间很大，成长初期不确定性小一点，能看得更清楚。

QianXiang：If see a long term，I put the consumption into optional consumption、Necessary consumption、Consumption auxiliary like consumer services including，Like optional consumption areas and consumption auxiliary of the field，The two fields in China are weak，These two areas abroad have clear profit model can learn。The market is still in the sudden period，So these big space industry，The early growth uncertainty a little bit small，Can see more clearly。