在近期发布的第二季度及上半年国际收支平衡表初步数据中，最引人瞩目的莫过于第二季度出现了高达714亿美元的资本和金融项目逆差（含净误差与遗漏），导致上半年出现203亿美元的资本和金融项目逆差（含净误差与遗漏）。这样的数据，不可避免招致中国出现大规模资本外逃的猜疑，毕竟第二季度直接投资仍有386亿美元的净流入。外管局指出，上半年跨境支付同比增长24%，其中境外直接投资项下这类我方拥有主导权的资金流出增长74%，而外商直接投资和证券投资撤资、外方投资收益汇出等外资主要撤离渠道的资金流出仅增长15%。但从总体情况来看，我们仍然不可忽视第二季度以来与日俱增的资本外逃压力，而且这种压力将继续保持到明年，甚至更长时间。

In the second quarter and the recently released during the first half of the international balance of payment in the preliminary data，The most compelling way to appear in the second quarter of $71.4 billion capital and financial project deficit（Including net error and omissions），In the first half of the $20.3 billion to appear capital and financial project deficit（Including net error and omissions）。This data，Inevitably incur China appear large-scale capital flight suspicions，After all, the second quarter direct investment still has $38.6 billion of net inflows。Comments pointed out that，In the first half year-on-year growth of 24% pay cross-border，Foreign direct investment item of under this kind of we have lower funds out 74% growth，And foreign direct investment and securities investment pull the plug、Foreign investment profit repatriation and other foreign main evacuated the channel of the fund outflow rose by only 15%。But from overall situation，We still cannot ignore since the second quarter of the increasing pressure of the capital flight，And this pressure will continue until next year，Even longer。

　　为什么第二季度以来资本外逃压力与日俱增？原因不在于账面统计的外商直接投资和证券投资撤资、外方投资收益汇出等常规数据，而是在于变相资本流动。毕竟，我们置身于一个变相资本流动规模惊人的世界，而且中国庞大的对外经贸规模也为企图隐身其中的投机资金创造了巨大空间。

Why does the second quarter of the capital flight since the growing pressure？Reason is not carrying statistics of foreign direct investment and securities investment pull the plug、Foreign investment profit repatriation conventional data，But in disguised capital flow。After all，We entered into a disguised capital flow scale amazing world，And China's huge foreign trade scale of stealth for attempt to create large speculative space。

　　在人民币贬值和中国经济前景不确定预期驱动下，投资者会有强烈的动机重新配置资产，打着“对外直接投资”旗号的资本外流会有较多增长，更不用说在货物贸易中通过转移定价实现的跨境资本流动。至于通过服务贸易的转移定价和其他操作实现跨境资本流动，由于服务贸易项目比货物贸易项目更难确定公允价格，这种操作遭遇狙击的“风险”要低得多。在国际经贸实践中，服务贸易中的转移定价和母子公司之间代垫工资、差旅费、研修生活费、住宿费等行为早已被跨国公司作为逃避税收和资本管制的手段。

In the yuan depreciation and China's economic prospects are not sure expectations drive，Investors will have a strong motivation to allocation of assets，under“Foreign direct investment”Banner capital outflow. There'll be more growth，Not to mention in the goods trade in through the realization of transfer pricing cross-border capital flows。As for through the service trade transfer pricing and other operating realize cross-border capital flows，As service trade project goods trade project than it harder to determine fair prices，This kind of operation in the sniper“risk”lower。In international trade practice，In the service trade, transfer pricing and subsidiary company acting mat between wages、Travel expenses、Of living expenses、Accommodation, etc have been multinational companies as evading tax and capital control means。

　　展望未来，这种资本外逃压力之所以会延续，关键原因在于欧洲经济萎靡不振，新兴市场经济体风险积聚。一旦其危机成为现实，就会通过金融市场危机传染机制对中国货币汇率、资本流动产生影响。而美国经济基本已走上正轨，市场参与者“逃向美元”的动机将持续相当一段时间。

Looking to the future，This pressure will continue the capital flight，The key reason is that European economic sluggish，Emerging market economies risk accumulation。Once the crisis to become a reality，Through the financial market crisis will infect mechanism of China's currency exchange rate、Capital flows have an impact。And American economic basic already back on track，Market participants“$escaped to”Motivation will last for quite some time。

　　去年下半年以来，新兴市场宏观经济运行波动剧烈：经济增长急剧失速，资本大规模外逃，货币对美元汇率大幅度贬值。虽然今年头两个半月新兴市场货币汇率和资本流入一度出现反弹，但从3月下旬起再度逆转，即使“金砖国家”这样的热门新兴市场经济体也未能幸免。

Since the second half of last year，Emerging market macroeconomic operation volatile：Rapid economic growth stall，Mass exodus of capital，Currency against the dollar depreciate significantly。Although the first two and a half months emerging market currencies and capital flows into once rebounded，But in late march on reverse again，Even if“Compound countries”Such hot emerging market economies also failed to escape by luck。

　　2010-2011年，巴西经济增长率从7.5%猛跌至2.7%，今年一季度只有0.8%，雷亚尔对美元汇率贬值幅度达到两位数。由于货币贬值和经济增长急剧失速，巴西企业在国际市场融资难度大大提高，外债危机风险急剧上升。去年，巴西企业在国际市场获得融资470亿美元，今年预计只有1亿美元，而今年巴西企业到期外债约有273亿美元（巴西中央银行数据）。

2010-2011，Brazil's economy from 7.5% growth tumbled to 2.7%，In the first quarter of this year only 0.8%，For the dollar depreciation range which be in double digits。Because of currency devaluation and economic growth stall sharply，Brazil enterprise in the international market financing difficulty is greatly increased，External debt crisis risk sharply。Last year，Brazil enterprise in the international market to get financing to $47 billion，This year it is forecast to only $100 million，This year the Brazilian enterprise external debt maturity is almost $27.3 billion（The Brazilian central bank data）。

　　2010-2011年，印度经济增长率从10.6%跌至7.2%，今年一季度更跌落到5.3%，为9年来的最低点。到6月末，印度卢比对美元汇率已比3月份贬值10%以上，比一年前贬值约30%。标准普尔对印度的信用评级仅仅比垃圾级高一级，6月11日又警告将把印度评级进一步下调到垃圾级，使之沦为金砖四国中第一个丧失投资级信用评级的国家。

2010-2011，India's economic growth rate fell from 10.6% to 7.2%，More fell to 5.3% in the first quarter of this year，For nine year low。To the end of June，The rupee against the dollar than 3 month depreciation has more than 10%，More than a year ago about 30% devaluation。Standard &poor's for India's credit rating than junk status high level only，June 11, and the warning will cut to junk rating further India level，Make a compound in four first loss of investment grade credit rating of the country。

　　俄罗斯卢布对美元汇率第二季度贬值11%左右，其资本外逃问题自去年下半年以来又有变本加厉之势。今年以来，持续多年的人民币汇率升值压力逆转，资本外逃压力出现，就是在这样的背景下发生的。

The Russian ruble against the dollar devaluation around 11% in the second quarter，The capital flight since last year and intense since the second half of power。Since this year，Last for years to RMB exchange rate appreciation pressure reversal，The capital flight pressure appear，It is against this background happen。

　　新兴市场经济体的经济风险很大一部分源于其久治不愈的经济痼疾，如印度的贸易赤字和经常项目收支赤字，而且某些热门新兴市场此前几年的成就也给他们埋下了经济逆转和倒退的风险。因为这些新兴市场吸引了更多的热钱内流，资产泡沫更大，而政府、企业盲目投资扩张的冲动更强，留下的窟窿也更大，通货膨胀压力也更强。

Emerging market economies of a large part of the economic risk of chronic stems from its economic weakness，Such as India's trade deficit and often project payments deficit，And some hot emerging market had years of achievements also give them buried the economic reversals and retreat of the risk。Because these emerging markets attracted more hot money inflow，More asset bubble，And the government、Enterprise blind investment expansion impulse stronger，The hole left bigger and better，Inflation pressure and more strong。

　　初级产品行情转熊和未来美国回归加息周期将是新兴市场经济体面临的两大威胁。前者的威胁不仅在于会直接减少相关新兴市场经济体的收入，更在于可能引爆牛市时期滋长但被掩盖的社会矛盾。毕竟，就总体而言，其他条件相同，与制造业驱动的增长相比，初级产品行业驱动的增长会带来更多的腐败、两极分化和暴力压榨，从而产生较多的社会矛盾。因为制造业企业处于永恒的卖方市场，企业需要创新才能取悦消费者而卖出产品，实现增长；但初级产品行业经营的关键在于占有资源，牛市时期尤其如此，即使没有取悦于下游产业的创新，只要能够“摆平”相关方面势力占有资源，就能大发利市。麻烦的是，近十年来新兴市场经济体经济增长业绩虽然显赫，但相当多的新兴市场经济体经济增长高度依赖于初级产品牛市，其助长社会矛盾的副作用可想而知。

Primary products market turn bear and the future U.S. interest rates will return cycle is emerging market economies face two big threat。The threat of the former is not only directly related to reduce the income of the emerging market economies，More in May set off a bull market to grow but was covered in the period of social contradictions。After all，overall，Other conditions the same，With the increase in manufacturing drive，Primary products industry drive growth will bring more corruption、Polarization and violence squeezed，To generate more social contradictions。Because manufacturing enterprise in eternal seller's market，Enterprise need innovation to keep consumers and sell products，Achieve growth；But the primary products industry management, the key is that takes the resource，The bull market especially period，Even if no pleasing the downstream industry innovation，As long as can“straight”Related aspects forces takes the resource，Can profitable year。The trouble is，Nearly 10 years to emerging market economies economic growth performance although glorious，But quite a number of emerging market economies rely heavily on economic growth in primary products bull market，Its encourage social contradictions side effects can be imagined。

　　由于美国经济基本上已经步入复苏轨道，无论QE3如何炒作，美国回归加息周期只不过是个时间问题，这个转折即使今年不会发生，明年发生的概率也相当高。而这个转折一旦发生，就很有可能引发大规模的资本流动逆转和债务危机。1970年代“尼克松冲击”引发西方各国货币竞争性贬值和后发国家债务融资高潮；到1980年代初，时任美联储主席保罗·沃尔克铁腕推行的紧缩货币政策，引爆了席卷几乎全球第三世界国家和苏联东欧的债务危机。这一次新兴市场经济体是否会重蹈1970-1980年代之覆辙，值得警惕。

As the economy has basically have entered into recovery track，No matter how QE3 hype，The United States raised interest rates return cycle is simply a question of time，The turning point even this year will not happen，The probability of what happens next year is high。And this turning once happened，Are likely to cause large-scale capital flow reversal and debt crisis。The 1970 s“Nixon shock”Western countries by currency devaluation and competitive late-development country debt financing climax；In the early 1980 s，The federal reserve chairman Paul volcker of carrying out the iron fist to tighten monetary policy，Set off across almost global third world countries of eastern Europe and the Soviet union debt crisis。This time the emerging market economies will be a repeat of the 1970-whether in the 1980 s it，alarmed。