历史上货币政策执行报告与现实中的操作存在分歧，主要原因是决策权限的差异与预期管理需要，故货币政策执行报告应当仅作为央行的前瞻性报告看待。二季度货币政策执行报告的部分措辞有所改变，我们认为：

History monetary policy implementation report and the reality of divided operation，The main reason is the difference of decision authority and expectations management needs，So monetary policy implementation report shall be only as the central bank's prospective report view。Second quarter monetary policy implementation report of the wording of change，We think：

　　1、对国际经济形势的判断从一 季度的“改善”到目前的显著放缓，措辞更为悲观、谨慎。对于未来经济走势的预期也未见乐观之词，认为美国增长动力有所减弱、欧洲经济更趋低迷，未来几个季度全球经济活动将稳定在较低水平上。

1、Judgement of the situation of international economy from a quarter“improve”To the current slow down considerably，The phrase is more pessimistic、cautious。For future economic trends expected also has not seen the optimistic word，Think that the United States has weakened growth momentum、The European economy more hasten is low，The next few quarters global economic activity will be stable in the lower level。

　　2、与一季度报告中对于国内经济形势的措辞“总体趋稳”相比，增加了“缓”字，表明经济“下滑”趋于稳定，并总体定性经济增速的趋缓“保持在预期范围内”。

2、And for the domestic economy in the first quarter report the wording of the situation“Overall stabilised”compared，increased“slow”word，Found that economic“decline”stable，And overall economic growth at the qualitative to slow down“Keep in the expected range”。

　　3、对风险问题的措辞显著增加，对国际五大风险的担忧远较一季度严重，并认为不排除欧债危机未来引致全球经济二次探底的风险。

3、The wording of the question of risk increase significantly，Five of the risk of international far more serious concerns in the first quarter，And think not exclude the debt crisis caused by the future global economic twice the risk of the agent。

　　4、未来政策取向：总体以稳为主，延续“稳中求进”的总基调和“稳健的货币政策”措辞，强调了“把稳增长放在更为重要的位置”，与国务院基调保持一致。在下阶段政策思路中首度增加了“防范跨行业、跨市场风险，防范实体经济部分地区、行业、企业风险及正规金融体系外的各类融资活动风险向金融体系传导”等措辞。（国金证券(600109,股吧)）

4、The future policy orientation：Overall with be give priority to，continue“WenZhongQiuJin”Total of tone and“The steady monetary policy”The phrase，Stressed the“BaWen growth in more important position”，And the state council fundamental key is consistent。In the next phase of policy ideas first increased“Prevent cross-industry、Cross market risk，Prevent entity parts of the economy、industry、Enterprise risk and the formal financial system of financing activities of all kinds of risk to the financial system conduction”Words such as。（Countries gold securities(600109,Shares it)）

　产业资本观望 市场还在左侧 Industrial capital market is still looking on the left

　　近期产业资本增持金额和减持金额没有太大变化，创业板减持有所收敛，但是主板的减持却开始扩大。截至8月3日，30日累计减持为65亿，30日累计减持公司数161家；30日累计增持为23亿，30日累计增持公司122家。从近期增减持的行业结构来看，电子元器件、机械设备增持金额较多；信息服务、生物医药减持金额较多，减持公司数目也较为密集。

Recent industrial capital increasing amount and reduce held amount not too big change，Reducing the convergence holds gem，But the mainboard holdings are starting to expand。As of August 3,，30, reduced their total for 6.5 billion，30, reduced their total number of the company in 161；30, around 2.3 billion for total，30, 122 additional company accumulated home。From the recent increase or decrease in terms of the structure of the industry，Electronic components、Mechanical equipment amount more influential；Information service、Biological medicine reducing the amount more，The company also reduced the number is more intensive。

　　我们编制的反映市场分化程度的趋同度指数已经从6月1日的最低值0.27开始反弹，我们当时认为阶段见顶已经确立。此指标之后一直在攀升，最高0.43，近期有所回落，截至8月3日为0.3807，表明近期调整过程中市场趋同度下降、分化下跌。从历史经验来看，一般该指标在高位才是持续反弹的必要条件；东方证券绝对收益趋势力度指数代表趋势的强弱或者延续性，衡量市场多空力量的相对强弱和转换。当前趋势力度指标为0.58，表明当前市场属于上升趋势中的震荡行情。

We reflect market differentiation degree of convergence of index has from the lowest June 1, 0.27 began to rebound，We thought stage peaked established。The index has been climbing after，A maximum of 0.43，Has receded recently，As of August 3, for 0.3807，In the process of adjustment that recent market convergence descend、Differentiation fall。From the historical experience，Generally this index is high in sustained rally the necessary condition；Oriental securities absolute returns trend strength index represents the strength of the trend or continuity，Measure the power market many empty relative strength and conversion。The current trend strength index of 0.58，Show the current market belongs to the rising trend concussion market。

　　综上所述，产业资本开始观望，虽然相对前期增持有所增加，但是近期增持止步不前，趋同指数走势表明暂时不具备大幅反弹的条件，我们认为市场目前还在左侧。 （东方证券）

To sum up，Industrial capital began to see，Although the relatively influential has increased，But recent increasing standing still，Convergence index trends that does not have the temporary rebound sharply conditions，We think the market is still on the left。 （Orient securities）

　证券业7月份经营数据下滑 Securities business data of the decline in July

　下跌成建仓时机 ChengJianCang down time

　　7月份券商营业收入环比6月整体下滑30%-40%，兴业证券(601377,股吧)、太平洋证券和方正证券(601901,股吧)出现亏损。7月份市场处于下滑状态，日均交易额为1150亿元，低于行业全年盈亏平衡点1300亿元，因此部分券商出现亏损符合预期。

In July, brokers operating income annulus comparing June whole fell 30% to 40%，Industrial securities(601377,Shares it)、The Pacific securities and securities founder(601901,Shares it)Losses in。In July, the market in a slowdown，Daily turnover for 115 billion yuan，Below the break-even point 130 billion yuan annual industry，So part of the brokers to losses in accord with expectations。

　　券商股下跌短期风险将基本释放，而行业短期之内政策催化效果明显；从中期来讲，虽然市场走向还不清楚，但一旦市场反转，券商股在政策、估值、盈利方面均具有优势，必然领涨市场，因此属于左侧出手品种；从长期来看，资本市场改革和券商行业转型方向逐步明确，行业具有战略性投资机会，因此下跌构成建仓机会。

Brokers shares fell short risk will basic release，And the industry in the short term policy catalytic effect is obvious；Will tell from the middle，Although the market direction is not clear，But once the market reversals，Brokers shares in the policy、valuations、Earnings are dominant，Will bring up the market，Therefore belong to the left out varieties；In the long run，Capital market reform and brokers in the industry transition gradually clear direction，Industry strategic investment opportunities，So a chance to drop a warehouse。

　　推荐标的：海通证券(600837,股吧)、华泰证券(601688,股吧)、中信证券(600030,股吧)、招商证券(600999,股吧)、光大证券(601788,股吧)。（申银万国）

Recommend mark：Haitong securities(600837,Shares it)、Huatai securities(601688,Shares it)、Citic securities(600030,Shares it)、Merchants securities(600999,Shares it)、Everbright securities(601788,Shares it)。（Shenyin &wanguo）