“地方版4万亿”或成新36条落地催化剂

“Local edition 4 trillion”Article 36 or into new ground catalysts

　　谭志娟

TanZhiJuan

　　从2353亿、8292亿到3万亿元……近期广东、湖南、贵州的地方政府陆续出台了一系列促进经济发展的方案，其涉及的投资规模巨大而被视作“4万亿”的地方版本。

From 235.3 billion、829.2 billion to $3 trillion...Recent guangdong、hunan、Guizhou of local government has promulgated a series of promoting economic development plan，With an investment of the huge scale and be regarded as“4 trillion”Place version。

　　在经济形势不断下滑的这个节点上，这一系列方案的公布引发了市场期待。在地方政府财力有限的情况下，吸收民间资本是自然的选项之一。

In the economic situation's soggy the node，This series of plan announced by causing market of expectation。The local government of limited resources，Civil absorption is one of the options natural capital。

　　贵州省旅游局副局长李三旗因为“3万亿”规划在接受《中国经营报(博客,微博)》记者采访时就表示：“现在找我们的投资商很多，因为规划没有做好都压着。现在不是钱少的问题，社会上闲钱很多，而是缺少项目。”

Guizhou province tourism bureau deputy director li because three flags“3 trillion”Planning in an《China runs a newspaper(blog,Micro bo)》Reporter to interview said：“Now we find a lot of investors，Because planning are not ready to pressure。Now is not the problem of less money，The extra money on many society，But a lack of project。”

　　而在企业看来，是否吸引民资取决于政府提供的投资平台。投资回报率至少要高于银行存款利率才能对民资有吸引力。

And in enterprise looks，What if the government provides depends on attracting investment platform。The return on investment is more than the bank deposit rate at least to what attractive。

　　“地方版4万亿”应不被叫停 “Local edition 4 trillion”Should not have been stopped

　　国家统计局8月9日率先公布的7月宏观数据中，CPI涨幅1.8%，两年半来首破2%，与此前市场预计一致。而同时，PPI（工业品出厂价格）同比下降2.9%则超出了之前市场-2.5%的预期。

The national bureau of statistics released on August 9, take the lead in the July macro data，CPI increase 1.8%，Two and a half years to the first break 2%，As the previous market is expected to agree。But at the same time，PPI（Factory-gate prices）2.9% year-on-year drop is beyond the market-2.5% of the expected before。

　　中上游产品，如采掘业与原料业产品价格大幅下跌构成了PPI超预期下跌的主要原因。这在首创证券等市场分析机构看来，主要原因还是经济下行导致的需求下降。他们预计PPI仍有可能继续下滑。

Reaches of products，Such as mining and a sharp drop in the price of raw material industry products constitute the PPI than expected the main reason for the drop。This is the first such as the securities market analysis organization looks，The main reason or economic downside fall in demand。They are expected to continue to slide could still PPI。

　　在此背景下，近期各地方政府陆续公布了“稳增长”方案。这其中尤以各自数目巨大的投资计划引来市场期待。

In this context，The local government has recently announced“Steady growth”scheme。This particularly their huge number of investment plan draws market expectations。

　　7月16日，宁波市提出加快推进重大工业项目建设，对投资额20亿元以上的重大工业项目和3亿元以上的战略性新兴产业项目，予以单独考核和表彰。

July 16,，Ningbo puts forward speed up the major industrial project construction，For investment 2 billion yuan of above major industrial projects and 300 million yuan of strategic new industry project，Be assessed alone and recognition。

　　广州市一系列的投资计划也超过2000亿元。

Guangzhou a series of investment plans are also more than 200 billion yuan。

　　而7月26日，长沙市对外宣布，2012年重大推介项目195个，总投资额达8292亿元。待公布的《贵州省生态文化旅游发展规划》显示，10年间重点项目上的投资总规模预计在3万亿元左右。

And on July 26,，Changsha city to be announced，2012 years of big promotion project 195，A total investment of 829.2 billion yuan。Released to the《Guizhou ecological culture tourism development planning》shows，10 years on key projects of investment is expected to total scale in 3 trillion yuan。

　　中信建投宏观分析师夏敏仁在接受记者采访时认为，中央在年初就有一个判断，稳经济就是稳投资。而在目前经济下滑之时，亟须稳经济以稳定人心。在他看来，未来扩大投资领域首先要满足四个条件：一是有利于增长；二是不与调结构相冲突；三是不会对通胀有太大的刺激；四是有利于就业增长。如果地方出台满足上述四个条件的政策被叫停的可能性较小。

Citic macro analysts XiaMinRen when accepting a reporter to interview think，The early in there is a judgment，Economic stability is steady investment。But in the current economic downturn，E. stability to stable economic heart。In his view，The future expansion of investment fields to meet first four conditions：One is conducive to growth；2 it is not conflict with the structure；Three is not about inflation have too big stimulation；4 it is beneficial to job growth。If the place on meet the above four conditions of the policy are less likely to have been stopped。

　　“长沙市的规划可能不会被叫停。” 海通证券(600837,股吧)宏观经济首席分析师陈勇看来长沙市投资规划中，尽管产业项目投资仅占总投资规模的16%，其他项目分别是功能区开发、基础设施建设和城镇化项目，但基础设施建设可以缓解“去房地产”导致的产能过剩，长期内增加经济供给能力。

“In changsha city planning may not have been stopped。” Haitong securities(600837,Shares it)Macroeconomic chief analysts Chen yong in changsha city planning in the investment looks，Although industry project investment accounts for only 16% of the total investment scale，Other projects were functional area development、Infrastructure construction and urbanization project，But infrastructure construction can ease“To real estate”Lead to overcapacity，Long term economic increase supply capacity。

　　“毕竟当前正在进行的结构转型，一方面是去房地产、去重化工业，一方面是从消费方面培育新的经济增长点。两方面动力的此消彼长很难形成时间上的一致，而地方基础设施建设能提供很好的缓冲。”他在最新研报中认为无论是短期还是中长期，地方版的“4万亿”值得期待。

“After all, the current is carrying on the transformation of the structure，On the one hand is to real estate、To heavy industry,，One is from consumer spending to foster new economic growth point。Two aspects of the power away to form the same time，And the local infrastructure construction can provide very good buffer。”His latest research reported that in the short-term or long-term either，Local version of the“4 trillion”Something to look forward to。

　　然而，此次地方政府出台的系列刺激方案中，巨大的投资规模与地方财政收入之间也存在普遍地不匹配现象：分别推出近8000亿和3万亿元投资规模计划的长沙市和贵州省政府地方财政收入分别为668.11亿元和1330亿元。

however，The local government on the introduction of the series in the stimulus plan，A huge investment scale and local fiscal revenue also exist between generally don't match the phenomenon：Launched in 800 billion and 3 trillion respectively nearly RMB investment plan and guizhou province in changsha city government local fiscal revenue for 66.811 billion yuan and 133 billion yuan respectively。

　　而与此同时，这些地方政府还有来自收入和债务的双重压力。在上半年房地产市场调控政策不变的情况下，上半年商用和住宅用地流标率分别达到了96.5%和79.6%，土地成交价款下降了13.3%。为此地方政府的财政收入也受到了直接的影响。

And at the same time，These local government and income and debt from the double pressure。In the first half of the real estate market adjustment and control policies under the condition of invariable，In the first half of the commercial and residential land flow standard rate were 96.5% and 79.6% respectively，Land price clinch a deal fell by 13.3%。Therefore the local government revenue was also directly influence。

　　而中国审计署的一项审计结果显示，2012年和2013年两年地方政府债务到期额度合计超过3万亿元。

And the Chinese the national audit office a audit results are shown，In 2012 and 2013 two years local government debt maturity total amount more than $3 trillion。

　　要想实现投资规划，又不能继续举债，引入民间资本在受访专家看来将是地方版“4万亿”得到落实的主要方向。即政府用招商引资的方式，吸引民资进场可能性概率大，使民资成为投资主体。

To realize the investment plan，And can't continue to leverage，Introducing folk capital questioned experts will probably is the place)“4 trillion”The main direction of implemented。That is the way with the government investment promotion and capital introduction，What attracted into big possibility probability，What was the main body to become investment。

　　就在《贵州省生态文化旅游发展规划》在北京的中期研讨会上传出可能涉及3万亿元的投资规模后，贵州中天城投(000540,股吧)开盘即上涨了3.92%。后者正是在2011年10月出资3.3亿元现金发起设立了贵州文化产业股份有限公司。

in《Guizhou ecological culture tourism development planning》In the middle of the Beijing seminar may involve out $3 trillion after the scale of investment，Guizhou zhongtian city shots(000540,Shares it)That opened up 3.92%。The latter is in October 2011 cash invested 330 million RMB to launch the guizhou culture industry Co., LTD。

　　民资入场看条件 Look at what the conditions

　　业内人士在受访时表示，地方政府吸引民间资本的必要性，或有望推进落实“新36条”细则的实施。

Industry insiders questioned said，The local government attract private capital of necessity，Or is expected to promote implementation“Article 36 the new”Detailed rules for the implementation of the。

　　记者注意到，决策层近期已经开始进一步呼吁落实利于民资投资的政策。7月30日召开的国务院常务会议要求各地区、各有关部门采取切实有效措施，确保各项政策落到实处。

Reporters noticed that，Recently has begun to further calls for executives to carry out what investment policies。On July 30, the standing committee of state council at the request every region、The relevant departments to take practical and effective measures，Ensure the policy into effect。

　　这一表态被业界解读为政府正积极鼓励民间资本进入能源、公用事业、交通运输和服务行业，相关措施包括承诺降低准入门槛、加大信贷支持力度等。

This comment was the industry for the government is actively encourage interpretation folk capital into energy、utilities、Transportation and service industries，Related measures including commitment reduce barriers to entry、Increase the credit support, etc。

　　在银河证券首席总裁顾问左晓蕾看来，居民储蓄从2007年的14万亿元上升到2011年的35万亿元，规模巨大。若其中的20%转化为“稳增长”的有效投资，就能增加7万亿元投资。关键是引导得当，稳增长“不缺钱”，且民间资金投资有效性更大。她在接受记者采访时表示，已出台的“新36条”细则方向是正确的，但还需细化与具有可操作性，应具体到第一步做什么，第二步做什么。

In the galaxy securities chief President consultant ZuoXiaoLei opinion，Savings from 2007 yuan rise in 2011 to 35 trillion yuan，Of large scale of。If 20% of them into“Steady growth”Effective investment，Can add 7 trillion yuan investment。The key is guide correctly，Steady growth“Does not need the money”，And private funds investment efficiency even more。She when accepting a reporter to interview said，Already on the introduction of the“Article 36 the new”Conditions in the right direction，But still need refinement and practical，Should be specific to the first step to do??????，The second step do??????。

　　不过，扬子资本北京首席代表周家鸣日前在接受记者采访时却认为，今年企业盈利明显下滑，民资进入地方政府推出的新政领域冲动可能不大。

but，Yangzi capital Beijing chief representative ZhouGuMing has when accepting a reporter to interview but think，Earnings this year clearly weakening，What was the local government launched into new areas may not impulse。

　　对于长沙出台的新政，湖南利能科技股份有限公司副总经理陈云浩在接受记者采访时却表示，他们公司现在在扩大规模，资金投资在政策所支持的节能减排项目上。地方新政是否吸引民资取决于政府提供的投资平台，如果平台好肯定有民企进入。

For changsha on the introduction of the New Deal，Hunan and can science technology Co., LTD, vice general manager of ChenYunHao when accepting a reporter to interview but said，Their company is now in scale，Capital investment policy in the support of the energy conservation and emission reduction projects。Whether the new place attract what the government provides investment depends on the platform，If platform good must have corporation entered。

　　“所谓好平台：一是所投资金安全、可靠性强；二是有一定回报率。”陈云浩进一步解释。

“The so-called good platform：One is the investment gold security、reliability；2 it is a certain rate of return。”ChenYunHao further explanation。

　　一位民企负责人对记者表示，银行定存都有回报，投资回报率至少要高于银行存款利率才能对民资有些吸引力。

A corporation chief told reporters，The bank deposit account have return，The return on investment is more than the bank deposit rate at least some of what can appeal。

　　周家鸣则透露民资与创投现在比较关注的投资领域是像新能源、新材料、节能环保等行业。

ZhouGuMing is revealed what are now the attention and venture investment fields are like new energy、The new material、Energy conservation and environmental protection, etc。

　　从各地方政府已经公布的项目计划显示，宁波、南京等纷纷将战略性新兴产业列入规划。

The local government has been released from the project plan shows，ningbo、Nanjing and other strategic new industry have included in the plan。

　　“民资现在一盘散沙，资金较分散，亟须整合。毕竟允许民资进去的垄断行业都是大笔的投资项目，因此引导民资的政策中应该有"如何整合民间资本"这个框架。”左晓蕾向记者强调。

“What any now，Funds is less concentrated，Integration is。After all, what was allowed to go in the monopoly of the industry are large investment projects，So what was the lead in the policies of should have"How to integrate nongovernmental capital"This framework。”ZuoXiaoLei emphasized to reporters。

　　一位创投界人士坦言，除了放开民资进入的领域外，还需提供公平竞争的环境，加强市场化，同时希望投资后，政府不应干预太多。

A venture circles said，In addition to let go of what into the field，Still need to offer fair competition environment，Enhance market-oriented，At the same time hope after the investment，The government should not interfere too much。

　　夏敏仁认为，像文化创意产业、传媒信息、高技术装备、节能环保、服务业、高技术材料以及旅游业等消费产业，地方出台相关政策不会被叫停。他预计，像上述符合“十二五”发展规划的产业振兴政策未来可能会加速出台。

XiaMinRen think，As cultural and creative industries、Media information、High technology and equipment、Energy conservation and environmental protection、services、High technical materials and tourism consumption such as industry，Place to publish relevant policy would not have been stopped。He is expected to，Like the accord with“1025”The industry development planning policy may speed up the future to come。