受经济下行压力影响，增速继续下滑，下半年财政支出增速或低于历年水平，依靠财政支出直接刺激经济成为小概率事件 Downward pressure by the economic impact，Growth continue to slide，The second half of fiscal expenditure growth or below the calendar year level，Rely on financial expenditure directly stimulating the economy is a small probability events

　　⊙记者 郭一信 ○编辑 龚维松

Reporter GuoYiXin ○ ⊙ GongWeiSong editor

　　财政支出年底突击花钱传统今年或难再现。7月财政收入受经济下行压力影响，增速继续下滑，再加上大幅下滑的地方土地出让收入，下半年财政支出增速或低于历年水平，依靠财政支出直接刺激经济成为小概率事件。

By the end of fiscal expenditure spending this year to traditional assault or reproduction。July revenue downward pressure by the economic impact，Growth continue to slide，Plus a sharp decline in place of the land transfer income，The second half of fiscal expenditure growth or below the calendar year level，Rely on financial expenditure directly stimulating the economy is a small probability events。

　　“包括努力减少乱收费、乱罚款、乱摊派税外负担等，”财政部财科所所长贾康表示，“下半年进一步推进结构性减税才是积极财政政策的重点。”除了十省市即将启动营改增改革外，记者亦获悉有关部门正进一步研究进一步扩大中小企业所得税减免范围，实体经济负担减轻将更值得期待。

“Including effort to reduce fees、fines、The tax burden of recourse，”The Treasury money manager, jia kang said，“To further promote the tax cuts is the second half structural active fiscal policy focus。”In addition to ten provinces will start to reform the outside the camp，Reporters also learned that the relevant departments are further research further expand the scope of small and medium-sized enterprise income tax relief，The entity economy will reduce the burden more to look forward to。

　　税收收入下滑概率大 Tax revenue declined probability

　　据了解，一般性财政收入中资本性开支、地方国有土地出让权收入，以及各类投资项目的经营性现金流入是构成目前财政投资性开支的主要来源，而从今年前两项主要来源来看，目前无疑不面临巨大考验。

According to understand，General financial revenues for capital expenditure、The place state-owned land transfer rights income，And all kinds of investment project management of cash inflows are a financial investment spending at present the main source，From two years ago and main source and see，At present is not facing huge test。

　　财政部最新公布的数据显示，7月财政收入同比增速继续较6月降低1.6%，其中占比最大的税收收入仅增长4.6%，较6月继续降低8个百分点。而土地出让收入方面前7月也较去年同期减少5000亿，相应的土地出让支出也减少2990亿元，同比下降18.9%。

The Treasury of the latest figures show，July financial income up continue to grow faster than June by 1.6%，One of the biggest tax revenue than grew only 4.6%，A June continue to reduce by 8%。And the land transfer income before in July and reduction of 500 billion compared to the same period last year，The corresponding land transfer spending also reduce 299 billion yuan，18.9% year-on-year drop。

　　“在增速全面回落背景下，第一季度甚至出现了增速仅为个位数的省市，地方财政形势下一步怎么做确实是个难题，”社科院财政室主任杨志勇表示。

“Under the background of the overall growth in the fall，The first quarter even appeared only to single digits of the provinces and cities and growth，Local fiscal situation what to do next is really a problem，”Fiscal YangZhiYong leadership academy said。

　　国金证券(600109,股吧)分析师汪毅对此亦认为，受到经济增长放缓、企业利润下降等因素影响，未来税收收入进一步下滑的概率较大，目前看来全年9.5%的财政收入增速目标依然具有一定的难度，而今年以来财政支出的相对高增速也将难以持续，下半年财政支出增速或将下降到16%左右。

Countries gold securities(600109,Shares it)Analysts WangYi also think about this，By the economic slowdown、Enterprise profit decline and other factors，The future tax revenue decline further probability of larger，Now it looks annual 9.5% of revenue growth target still has the certain difficulty，And since this year of finance expenditure is relatively high growth will be unsustainable，The second half of fiscal expenditure growth will fall to 16% or。

　　与财政收入能力持续下降伴随的是财政支出结构的变化，7月财政支出中，一直维持高速增长的固定资产投资重头戏交通运输支出增速已较6月下降10个百分点，持续最近几个月来不断走低态势，而支出加速的领域主要是一些上半年进度相对较慢的项目，包括教育、文化传媒、社保、环保支出等民生保障项目等。

And fiscal revenue capacity continues to decline with is the change of the structure of fiscal expenditure，July financial expenditure，Always maintain growth of investment in fixed assets grand opera transportation spending growth has a June dropped 10%，Continued in recent months currencies situation，And spending accelerating main areas of some progress is relatively slow in the first half of the project，Including education、Culture media、Social security、Environmental expenditure and people's security programs, etc。

　　对此，分析师表示，目前交通运输等传统政府投资基础设施领域经过前几年高速扩张后，目前大多处于消化期，后续投入能力有限，相比民生社保等消费性支出才是今年以来财政支出的重点，未来依靠财政重回扩张来保增长可能性并不大。

this，Analysts said，At present the traffic transportation traditional government investment infrastructure field after a few years ago after the rapid expansion，At present is mostly digestive period，Subsequent investment ability is limited，People such as social security than consumer spending is the focus of this year financial expenditure，The future depends on fiscal expansion to return to the growth possibility is not big。

　　或推更多减税措施 Or push more tax cuts

　　与期望财政直接刺激经济相比，减负被认为有更多可期待空间，相关专家对记者表示，由于过去财政惯常采用的项目投资和直接补贴等方式屡屡导致产能过剩的副作用，目前减税已被财政部门逐渐认为是更有效的稳增长途径。

And expect financial directly to stimulate the economy than，The burden is thought to have more space to expect，Relevant experts told reporters，As the past the usual financial project investment and direct subsidies is often lead to overcapacity way of side effects，At present the financial department of the tax cuts has been gradually think it is more effective steady growth paths。

　　对此贾康强调表示，未来结构性减税重点包括酌情扩大营改增试点范围，减少流通环节税收费用，落实企业自出创新研发投入的相关所得税抵免优惠，以及抓紧抓实减轻小微企业税负工作等。

This emphasis on jia kang said，Future tax cuts highlights include the discretionary expand structural change increase the scope camp，Reduce the tax cost of circulation，Implement enterprise innovation from the r&d input of related income tax preferential exemption，And grasp emphasizing reduce small micro enterprise tax work, etc。

　　其中，中小企业将是减税关键。此前上海营改增试点经验已证明，小规模纳税人在营改增后税负降低幅度普遍大于一般性纳税人，其降幅达到四成。除了增值税改革外，在所得税优惠方面，财政部门相关人士亦对记者证实，目前正在研究进一步扩大中小企业所得税优惠征收范围的措施，以改善实体经济经营环境。

Among them，Small and medium-sized enterprises is the tax cuts will be key。Shanghai camp after the pilot experience has changed that，Small-scale taxpayers to increase the tax burden in the camp after reduction greater than the general taxpayer generally，It fell to forty percent。In addition to the value added tax reform，In the income tax，Financial department relevant personage also confirmed to reporters，At present are small and medium-sized enterprise research further expand the income tax collection range of measures，In order to improve the economic entity management environment。

　　对于结构性减税工作，贾康表示当前要特别注意完善减税的操作方案和实施细则。复旦大学近期发布的中国中小微企业成长指数报告亦显示，目前超过六成的中小微企业所得税并没有得到减免，15%和20%的优惠税率目前分别只有17%和10%左右的中小微企业能够享受到。报告对此表示，中国目前关于中小微企业的税收和政策支持都仍有待加强完善。

Tax cuts for structural work，Jia kang said the current to pay special attention to improve the operation of the tax cuts and the detailed rules for the implementation scheme。Fudan university, recently released the Chinese small and medium-sized enterprise growth of the index also showed，At present, more than sixty percent of the small and medium-sized small enterprise income tax relief and get there，The preferential tax rate of 15% and 20% respectively at present only 17% and 10% of small and medium-sized enterprises can enjoy the micro。The report expressed，China at present about small and medium-sized enterprise of the tax and the policy support are still to be perfect to strengthen。