申银万国证券研究所市场研究总监 桂浩明

ShenYin universal securities research institute market research director GuiHaoMing

　　记得在股改的时候，当时证监会领导曾经反复提到，要让投资者对后市有稳定的预期，也就是看到并充分认识到股改的巨大意义以及对资本市场发展的推动作用。应该说，这样的宣传是起到了相应的效果——由于投资者对股改普遍认同，投资积极性不断提高，也就直接促成了2005-2007年的股市大牛行情。

Remember that in the other，When securities regulatory commission leaders have repeatedly mentioned，Want to let investors for the market outlook is expected to have a stable，Also is to see and fully recognize the great significance to the reform and the development of capital market role。Should say，This propaganda is played a corresponding effect - as investors to generally recognized by the other，Constantly improve the investment enthusiasm，Also led directly to 2005-2007 years of the stock market and market。

　　而今A股市场正进入一个新的发展阶段，包括改善投资者结构、调整市场投资思路以及推进金融创新等为主要内容的大变革正在全方位推进。其内涵十分丰富，在不少方面甚至可以说具有“革命性”的意义。但也因为这样，新老格局之间也就必然产生矛盾与冲突。如管理层大力推崇的蓝筹股在市场上就是得不到认同，而有关方面推出的意在打压绩差股的“风险警示板”则遭遇了市场强烈反弹，此种不协调之处还可以举出很多。当然，我们不能说今年以来的股市疲弱就是这些因素的产物，但不管怎么说其影响还是客观存在的。

Now A share market is entering A new stage of development，Including improved investors structure、Adjusted market investment ideas and promote financial innovation as the main contents of the big change is all-round propulsion。Its connotation is very rich，In many aspects even has“revolutionary”significance。But also because of this，New and old between pattern is also inevitable contradiction and conflict。Such as management to esteem the blue chip stock in the market is not identity，And the launch of the poor to crack down on performance of the stock“Risk warning plate”The encounter the market rebounded strongly，This not harmonious place can also give a lot of。Of course，We can't say that since this year the stock market weakness is the product of these factors，But no matter how to say its influence still exists objectively。

　　显然，以市场化为核心的改革是要继续推进的，不能因为要“救市”而中断。但与此同时要减少改革的成本，避免因为制度摩擦过大而导致不必要的损失，这是需要考虑的。以前在股市上经常提到的一个问题是“三度统一”论，即改革的力度、发展的速度和市场的承受度要结合。虽然现在已经很少听到类似说法了，但是回头想想它还是很有道理的。而怎么样才能够化解这方面的问题呢？也许让投资者对改革的结果有个稳定的预期是必要的。举个例子来说，像制定新版退市制度和设立“风险警示板”，其出发点应该说都是可以理解的，但客观上其给投资者的印象就是绩差股要尽快退市，而且希望它快点下跌，投资者千万不要买入。显然，如果投资者形成了这样的预期，那么他们对后市就不可能乐观。问题是现在的那些绩差股多数在上市时并不是绩差股，有的业绩差与经济的周期波动有关，还有一些股票面临退市风险并非因为业绩的原因，而是由于制度。这表明，如何完善制度设计，让投资者对后市的预期稳定下来很关键。最近人们看到有关部门对“风险警示板”以及退市公司的重新上市等问题有了新的表态，这样做起到了稳定预期的作用，事实上投资者对此也是比较愿意接受的。

obviously，With the market into the core of the reform is to continue to promote the，Can't because“Help city”And interrupt。But at the same time to reduce the cost of reform，Avoid excessive friction because system and lead to unnecessary loss，This is the need to consider。In the stock market before often mention of a problem is“Three degrees of unity”theory，Namely reform、The speed of development and the market's tolerance to combine。Although it has been seldom heard the same thing，But back to think it is very reasonable。And how to solve this problem？Maybe let investors to the result of reform have a stable expectations is necessary。For example，Like make new delisted system and set up“Risk warning plate”，Its starting point should say is understandable，But objectively to investors the impression is the performance difference shares to withdraw from the market as soon as possible，And hope it come on down，Investors don't buy。obviously，If investors formed such expectations，So they can not be optimistic for the market outlook。The problem is now the performance difference shares in listed most when not performance difference shares，Some performance difference and economic cycle fluctuation relevant，Some stocks still have faced to withdraw from the market risk is not because the cause of the performance，But because system。This suggests that，How to perfect the system design，Let investors for the market outlook is expected to stabilize the very key。Recently the relevant departments of the people to see“Risk warning plate”And delisted company's relaunch and so on the new statement，So start to stable the expected effect，In fact investors to be also more willing to accept it。

　　应该说，稳定预期的工作有关方面也一直在做，但是人们也确实感到在很多方面做得还很不够。如“转融通”行将推出，市场对此是有所担忧的，主要是害怕做空能量大大增加。其实即便是在成熟市场上，信用交易中也是融资规模大大高于融券。那么，证券金融公司能否对其今后的业务重心有个明确的描述呢？这虽然只是个技术性的问题，但是在稳定市场预期方面还是有很大作用的。进一步说，如果我们在很多具体政策措施出台时能够更加慎重，特别是在稳定投资者预期方面有更大的作为，也许市场情绪不至于低落到现在这种地步，股市行情也不至于走得那么低迷。

Should say，The work of steady anticipation concerned have been doing，But people also felt in many ways doing enough。if“refinancing”About to launch，The market is somewhat worried，Mainly be afraid of doing empty energy increase greatly。In fact even in mature markets，Credit transactions is financing scale greatly higher than securities。so，Securities finance company can for its future business center of gravity have a clear description of it？Though this is a technical problem，But in the stable market expectations, it has big effect。Further said，If we're in a lot of specific policy measures to more careful，Especially in the stable investors expected to have a greater as，Maybe market sentiment not down to this point now，The stock market will not go so downturn。

　　投资者的预期稳定了，他的操作行为也就稳定了，就不会有恐慌性抛售，股市行情也就不至于出现非理性下跌。这是常识，也是现在市场各界都应该予以关注的事情。

Investors expected stable，His operation behavior is stable，There can be no panic selling，The stock market is not irrational fall。This is common sense，And it is also the market from all walks of life should pay more attention to things。