通过追踪整体资产类别的指数，持有大宗商品头寸的投资者可能发现,未来数周乃至数月将会非常令人郁闷。

By tracking the index of whole asset class，Hold commodity positions investors may find,The next few weeks and months will be very dire。

　　广义大宗商品价格指数今年可能早已触底，但这并不意味着反弹将持续。大宗商品价格并非单由一种力量牵引而发生单向移动，而是面临来自四面八方的压力——政治、气候和货币政策等，不一而足。当广义大宗商品价格在当前水平附近反弹时，找出可能脱颖而出的大宗商品至关重要。未来数月，玉米应会获得青睐，同时黄金可能乏人问津。

Generalized commodity price index this year already may have hit bottom，But this does not mean that rebound will continue。Commodity prices is not single by a power traction and produce unidirectional movement，But faced with the pressure from all sides - political、Climate and monetary policy, etc，vary。When general commodity prices rebound in the current level when nearby，Find out may stand out commodity is very important。The next few months，Corn should gain favour，At the same time gold may be unpopular。

　　诚然，近期价格走势令人产生搭顺风车的冲动。

admittedly，Recent price trend is produce free ride impulse。

　　自6月底以来，道琼斯-瑞银大宗商品指数或瑞银彭博CMCI综合指数等广义指数已上涨逾10％。这主要归因于农业和能源大宗商品——前者是玉米、大豆和小麦，后者是原油和天然气。但即使在这些商品组内，价格走势也可能两极分化，相互抵消，风险和潜在回报比对投资者而言毫无吸引力。本季度期间广泛多元化指数价格甚至可能出现几次最高10％的下跌。

Since since the end of June，The dow Jones - ubs commodity index or ubs bloomberg CMCI comprehensive index, generalized index has risen more than 10%。This is mainly attributed to agriculture and energy commodities - the former is corn、Soybean and wheat，The latter is crude oil and natural gas。But even in these goods within the group，Price trend may also polarization，Offset each other，Risk and potential returns than investors have no attraction。During the quarter widely diversified index price may even have a few times a 10% drop in the highest。

　　

粮食危机逼近 Food crisis approximation

　　我们首先谈谈粮食以及为什么我们认为玉米可能会有出色表现，短期内价格将上涨10％－20％。

We first talk about food and why we think corn may have outstanding performance，In the short term prices will increase by 2-20%。

　　全球粮食产区的许多农民很可能会把2012年铭记在心，因为这一年的气候条件变得特别恶劣。美国中西部遭遇近25年来最严重的旱灾，黑海地区酷热干燥，而印度的季风雨的降水量一直不足。如果这种状况持续下去——不少气象专家认为确会如此——我们可能又会经历一场粮食危机，规模不亚于2007年－2008年那场。这些条件将共同催生一场粮食价格攀升的风暴。

The global food production of many farmers are likely to be the 2012 keep in mind，Because this year of climatic conditions become particularly bad。The American Midwest encounter in the past 25 years the most severe drought，Black sea hot dry，But India's monsoon rain precipitation has been insufficient。If this situation continues - a lot of meteorological experts think it could be so - we could experience a food crisis，As the scale in 2007-2008 the。These conditions will jointly gave a food prices rising storm。

　　在现今日益逼近的粮食危机中，供应受影响最严重的当属玉米和大豆，作为这两种农作物全球最大生产国的美国，成为众人关注的焦点。美国玉米和大豆的产量分别占全球总量的近39％和35％，同时其库存相对于其他生产国也低得令人担忧。

In today's increasingly approximation food crisis，Supply the worst affected, when is the corn and soybeans，As the two crops the world's largest producer of the United States，In the spotlight。The United States corn and soybean production accounted for nearly 39% of the global total and 35%，At the same time its inventory relative to other producers also lower worrying。

　　美国农业部在其一份最新的《世界农产品供需预测报告》中指出，由于美国天气状况自农业部上次公布报告以来一直没有改善，玉米产量预测下调至123蒲式耳/英亩，大豆产量预测下调至36蒲式耳/英亩。在这种形势下，美国玉米市场的供应缺口将达到总需求的5％以上，美国大豆库存量也将下跌，跌至年消费量4％以下的水平。

The United States department of agriculture in a copy of the latest《The world agricultural products supply and demand forecast report》that，Due to the weather conditions from the department of agriculture announced last report has been no improvement，Maize yield prediction cut to 123 m/acres，Soybean yield prediction down to 36 bushel/acres。In this situation，U.S. corn market supply gap will reach more than 5% of the total demand，The American soybean stocks will also fall，Annual fell to below 4% level。

　　去年，玉米供应下滑被小麦供应充裕所弥补。今年这种情况也许不会再次发生，因为小麦产量也可能供不应求。恶劣的气候条件应会限制俄罗斯和乌克兰的小麦出口，而预计年底出现的厄尔尼诺现象将对澳大利亚和印度的小麦产量构成威胁。同时，南美玉米和小麦生产国巴西和阿根廷，也无法补足两个市场的缺口。

Last year，Corn supply is falling wheat supplies abundant made up。This year the situation may not happen again，Because the wheat yield may also demand exceeds supply。The bad weather conditions should limit Russia and Ukraine wheat export，And at the end of the year is expected to appear in the el nino phenomenon will be to Australia and India's wheat yield a threat。At the same time，South America corn and wheat producers Brazil and Argentina，Can't make up two market gap。

　　简言之，玉米方面，市场将不得不等到明年夏季美国作物收割时，才能缓解供应方面的忧虑。这意味着近期实行需求定量配给是稳定市场的唯一选择，这会抬高玉米价格。

In short，maize，The market will have to wait until next summer harvest the crops，To ease supply worries。This means that the recent demand rationing is stable market the only choice，This will drive up the price of corn。

　　大豆方面，虽然美国库存低，但情况没那么糟糕。占全球大豆产量50％的南美可能会平稳市场情绪，中国的国家储备充足，据估算达1500万吨，相当于其年消费量的20％。总之，粮食价格倾向于上行。

Soybean aspects，Although the stock is low，But it's not that bad。Accounted for 50% of global soybean production in South America may stabilize the market sentiment，China's national reserve enough，An estimated 15 million tons，Equivalent to 20% of their annual consumption。In a word，Food prices tend to ascending。

　

　能源需求低迷 Energy demand downturn

　　能源类大宗商品的行情不尽相同，近期价格走强的趋势不太可能具有持久性。实际上，当前的供需走势可能引发几轮价格下跌，涨幅最大的能源品种最有可能跌幅最大，价格跌回涨前水平。

Energy class commodities market is not the same，Recent prices strong trend is unlikely to have persistent。In fact，The current supply and demand situation could cause several rounds of price falls，The largest increase energy breed most likely maximum drop，Prices fell HuiZhang former level。

　　这一观点尤其切合天然气。由于今年美国气候异常，6月和7月期间用于发电的天然气消费量预计同比增加了25％，促使天然气价格暂时站上了3美元/百万英热单位以上的高位。然而，这波涨势可能再次推动煤炭用量增加，而美国电厂的煤炭库存充足，达1.96亿短吨，比五年平均水平高出18％。加上天然气供应正在企稳，天然气价格可能因此回落至2.25美元/百万英热单位的水平。

This view is especially the natural gas。The United States this year because of climate anomaly，During June and July for power generation of natural gas consumption is expected to increase by 25% year-on-year，Natural gas prices to the temporary website $3 per million British thermal unit more high。however，This wave may rise again promote coal consumption increase，And the American power plant coal inventory sufficient，Up to 196 million ton，Five years than the average 18%。Combined with natural gas supply are stabilises，Natural gas prices could therefore dropped to $2.25 per million British thermal unit level。

　　同时，不仅美国的煤炭供应充足，亚洲也是如此。尤其中国提高了港口和电厂的热煤库存水平，因此实际上没有进口煤炭的真正需求。这就解释了为什么亚洲海运石油价格下跌以及澳大利亚纽卡斯尔煤炭价格持续承压。中国经济活动也许因此可以获得推动力量，并刺激工业部门的产出和能源需求，但我们预计这种状况要到今年下半年才能发生。

At the same time，Not only the United States coal in abundant supply，Asia is also so。Especially China improve the port and power plant of hot coal inventory level，So in fact no import coal real demand。This explains why Asian maritime oil prices and Australia Newcastle coal prices continue to pressure。China's economic activities might therefore can obtain driving force，And stimulate the industrial sector output and energy demand，But we expect this situation to the second half of this year to happen。

　　原油方面，上半年需求低迷，仅同比增长0.6％。最近的市场担忧在供应方面。挪威6月底至7月初的罢工运动导致供应中断，不但拉升了价格，影响甚至持续到罢工结束后。目前市场担心苏丹、南苏丹、叙利亚和也门的政治问题可能引发供应中断。这些石油生产国已经总共损失了约80万桶/天的产能，最早要到2014年才可能恢复产能。伊朗出口量今年年内至今已减少高达100万桶/天，未来数月内西方国家对伊朗的制裁更增加了该国石油出口的不确定性。

In crude oil，Demand in the first half of the downturn，Only 0.6% year-on-year growth。The recent market concerns on the supply side。Norway at the end of June to July strike leads to supply disruptions，Not only to pull up the price，Influence and even continue until after the end of the strike。The present market worried about Sudan、South Sudan、Syria and yemen political issues could cause supply disruptions。These oil producers have lost a total of about 800000 barrels per day of capacity，Until 2014 at the earliest possible resume production。Iran has so far this year exports to reduce as much as 1 million barrels per day，In the next few months western nations sanctions against Iran more increase the country's oil exports uncertainty。

　　不过，这些担忧无法掩盖石油需求增长乏力的事实。中国最近的进口数据表明其增量消费正在放缓：今年上半年的需求仅同比增加20万桶/天左右，增速创2009年上半年以来的新低；三季度全球增量需求预计仅70万桶/天，足以令布伦特原油价格在近期内再次跌破90美元/桶。

but，These concerns could not hide the fact that the weak oil demand growth。China's recent import data show that the incremental consumption is slowing：In the first half of this year the demand of year-on-year increase only 200000 barrels of oil a day or so，Growth in the first half of 2009 and has low；Third quarter global incremental demand is only 700000 barrels of oil a day，Enough to make brent crude oil prices again in the near future below $90 a barrel。

　

　基本金属观望中国 Basic metal watching China

　　这种需求不振的局面也波及到了基本金属。欧洲经济和政治危机无疑会拖累该行业，但中国经济放缓才是关键所在。低迷的中国经济并未好转，难以提振基本金属市场的信心。这使得铅之外的大部分基本金属都处于供应过剩的状态。

This demand of situation also affected the basic metal。European economic and political crisis will undoubtedly drag the industry，But China's economic slowdown is the key。The China economic downturn has not improved，Hard to boost base metals market confidence。This makes the lead outside of the most basic metal are in the state of oversupply。

　　在此背景下，三季度铜价可能继续承压，尤其此时正值中国基本金属需求的淡季。目前铜库存处于高位，过去几个月铜进口量和国内铜产量的稳步增长使得保税仓库的库存量保持在50万吨左右。供应方面，2012年底之前新开铜矿的产能可能使全年的全球铜矿供应量增长4％，明年预计增长9.5％。

In this context，Third quarter copper prices may continue to pressure，Especially at a time when China is basic metal demand off-season。At present the high copper stocks，In the past few months copper imports and domestic copper output steady growth makes the bonded warehouse inventory of up to 500000 tons。supply，By the end of 2012 the new open copper capacity may make annual global copper supply growth of 4%，Is expected to grow by 9.5% next year。

　　铝也有着类似的走势：中国的消耗可能会放缓，而欧洲则会萎缩。但是，由于中国产能增加，今年铝产量可能还会增长6％。铝市场今年可能会出现100万吨的余量。即便如此，铝价应不会继续下探，因为企业可能会通过减产来平衡市场，中国也不例外。

Aluminum also has a similar trend：China's consumption may be slow，And Europe will atrophy。but，Because of China's increased productivity，Aluminum production this year may be increased by 6%。Aluminum market this year may appear 1 million tons of allowance。Even so，LvJia should not continue to dip，Because enterprise may through the reduction to balance the market，China is no exception。

　　镍市场也与中国休戚相关。从其结构性供应前景可以看出，镍价或将下行。但大部分新矿项目尚未达到目标产量。与此同时，印尼对镍矿石的出口限制可能开始影响到镍生铁的产量。然而，要让镍价真正回归上升轨道，中国的钢铁业必须再次加速，并提高300系列不锈钢的产量。

Nickel market and China share joys and sorrows。From the structural supply prospects can see，Forecasts or descending。But most of the new mine project have not yet reached the target output。meanwhile，Indonesia to nickel ore export restrictions may begin to affect the nickel cast iron production。however，To make forecasts is real to return rise orbit，China's steel industry must be picking up again，And improve the output of 300 series stainless steel。

　　对于锌来说，计划2012年投产的新矿项目，应能在现有锌矿扩产量增加的基础上再添56万吨产量。一方面是产能增加，另一方面今年全球锌需求量预计增长4.8％，估计锌市场将有27万吨的余量。

For zinc,，Plan in 2012 put into production of new mine project，Should be able to in the existing fat expansion on the basis of yield increase add 560000 tons of production。On the one hand is increased productivity，On the other hand this year the global zinc demand is expected to grow by 4.8%，Estimate zinc market there will be 270000 tons of allowance。

　　伦敦金属交易所的铅库存从2011年10月的历史新高38.8万吨一路下行。虽然放缓的汽车产量拖累了需求，但是电池更换仍将是铅需求量的重要组成部分，而且能有效地帮助其抵御衰退。我们预计，2012年的铅市场会更加平稳，而2013年则有可能出现供应短缺，这将有利于低迷铅价的回升。

London metal exchange of lead inventory from October 2011 a record 388000 tons of all the way down。Although slow car production to drag down the demand，But battery replacement will lead is an important part of demand，And can effectively help the rece ion。We expect，2012 years of lead the market will more smoothly，And in 2013 is likely to supply shortages，It will help the downturn lead price rebound。

　

　贵重金属急需QE3 Precious metals are in urgent need of QE3

　　黄金后市甚至会更不乐观。

Gold market outlook will even more is not optimistic。

　　目前，金价的救星可能会是美国，尤其是美联储，而不是中国。首饰购买需求疲软，而且各大央行的黄金采购积极性也不如去年高涨。这些需求驱动力量离场之后，就需要金融投资者加大今年黄金采购量。但由于人们对美联储推出第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3）的强烈预期已不复存在，投资者难有动力大量采购黄金。

At present，The price of gold savior may be the United States，Especially the fed，Rather than China。Jewellery buying demand weakness，And the central bank gold purchase enthusiasm is not high last year。These needs drive power off later，Will need to increase financial investors this year gold purchase quantity。But due to the people to the federal reserve launched the third round of quantitative easing policy（QE3）Strong expectations has ceased to exist，Investors have power to purchase a large number of gold。

　　我们预计黄金市场今年的供应余量将在400吨左右。为消化这一巨额余量，投资需求需增至2000吨，而这一目标如若没有美联储助力则很难完成。

We expect the gold market this year's supply allowance will be 400 tons。For digestion this huge allowance，Investment demand should be increased to 2000 tons，But this goal without the federal reserve power it is hard to finish。

　　上半年，投资需求可能仅为602吨，而这意味着下半年的需求要达到1400吨，也就是较去年同期增长40％。

In the first half of，Investment demand may only for 602 tons，And this means that demand in the second half of the year will reach 1400 tons，Also is compared to the same period last year growth of 40%。

　　这也说明金价的表现极大地受制于对QE3预期的减弱。

This means that the gold price performance greatly subject to QE3 expected to abate。

　　美元的强势，尤其是其相对于新兴市场国家的强势地位，对于黄金来说也不是好消息。

The strength of the dollar，Especially the emerging market countries relatively strong position，It is not good news for gold。

　　我们最终认为这一黄色金属或将承压，并很有可能失守1520美元/盎司这一短期目标价位，继而在1460美元/盎司-1480美元/盎司的支撑价位徘徊。在抛售所有战术性黄金仓位之前，黄金投资者不妨参考一下将发布的美国就业数据，该数据是9月初美联储动作的风向标。

We finally think this yellow metal or will be confined，And is likely to fall 1520 us dollars/ounces this price short-term goals，Then in 1460 us dollars/ounces - 1480 us dollars/ounces of support price hovering。In selling all tactical gold before the position，Gold investors might as well consult will be published U.S. employment data，This data is early September the fed action vane。

　　由于黄金面临压力，白银市场有可能会出现大规模的抛售。因此，我们重申，银价近期将移至22.8美元/盎司。在铂金和钯金方面，由于金价承压以及金融市场受增长担忧困扰，短期内价格上扬的空间不大。还有一些其他不利因素，包括对这些金属行业需求存在不确定性。在1400美元/盎司价位之下，铂金适合做多头，而钯金只有在失守535美元/盎司的价位之后才可考虑进仓。

Because of gold under pressure，The silver market may appear large-scale sell-off。therefore，We reiterate our，Silver price recently will shift to $22.8 / ounce。In the platinum and palladium aspects，Due to the price pressure and financial market is growing with worry，In the short term prices of the space is not large。There are some other factors，Including the metal industry demand uncertainty。At $1400 / ounce under the price，Platinum is suitable for long，Palladium and gold only in fell $535 / ounce of price before may be considered into the bin。

　　作者为瑞银财富管理投资总监研究部非传统投资类别主管

The author for ubs wealth management investment research director of non-traditional investment category competent