编者提示：金融监管对市场各方意味着什么？监管新政将如何影响实体经济？监管者如何以最佳方式避免给市场各方带来不利后果？现在，我们应在某个点上，停止在改革方案中加入新内容，而去冷静判断此前所做的一切改革是否有效，去观察改革后的金融体系是否在总体上被市场各方普遍理解和接受。

Editor hint：Financial supervision on the market parties mean？The New Deal regulation will affect how the entity economy？Regulators about how to best way to avoid to the market parties bring adverse consequences？now，We should at some point，Stop in the reform plan to add new content，And to cool judgment previously have done reform is effective，To observe after the reform of financial system is in the overall market by the parties generally understand and accept。

　　无法对冲的风险是最危险的，而且由于其不确定性，通常也无法对这种风险的所有可能结果进行量化。对企业来说，现在的经营环境变得更加不确定。去年发生了若干重大地缘政治事件和自然灾害，今年许多国家又将进行选举和领导人换届，在此大背景下，金融业正经历一场毕生一遇之大变局。

Unable to hedge risk is the most dangerous，And because of its uncertainty，Usually is not the risk of all possible results quantitatively。For enterprises，Now the business environment become more uncertain。Last year there was some major geopolitical events and natural disasters，This year, a number of countries and will elect and leaders of，In this background，The financial industry is undergoing a life in a big change。

　　对公司司库来说，这种新风险环境使得如下基本问题变得更加复杂：如何对冲商业风险和经济风险？何时及如何筹集资金？持有何种现金及在何处持有？

To the company for the treasurer，This new risk environment makes the basic problem becomes more complicated：How to hedge business risk and economic risk？When and how to raise money？Have the cash and where to hold？

　　货币和金融体系以及监管体制的改革使问题更加复杂。公司司库是金融这一被监管行业的客户，有关上述问题的探讨，一定会影响到你们的利益。

Monetary and financial system and supervision system reform make problems more complicated。The company treasurer is financial this supervision industry customers，The paper discusses the problems related to the above，Will affect your interests。

　　针对即将发生的监管体制变革，我们的重点是评估变革对客户的冲击，尤其是对那些在实体经济中创造财富的人的冲击。任何改革都要恰当地平衡防范危机与支持实体经济之间的关系，这样才理想。如果对金融体系总体上应当发挥什么作用没有一个明确的考虑，则会出现我们不希望发生的后果，而且最终用户会为此付出代价。

According to the impending regulation system change，Our focus is to assess the impact of the change to the customer，Especially for those in the real economy to create wealth in the impact。Any reform is to properly balance to prevent crisis and support the relationship between the entity economy，So just ideal。If the financial system in general should play what role does not have a clear consider，Can appear we don't want to happen consequences，And the end user will pay the price。

　　监管决策的后果将对金融业的发展及其对实体经济的支持产生最重大的影响。我们目前面临的经济挑战是巨大的，而解决方案现在既不清楚，也有风险。

The consequences of regulatory decision for the development of the financial industry and the entity economic support is going to produce the most significant influence。We are currently facing the economic challenge is great，And the solutions are now is not clear，Can also have risks。

　　我谈三个问题：第一，有关金融监管的探讨及其对我们的重要意义；第二，改革将如何影响实体经济；第三，我们应当如何以最佳方式避免给企业界带来意想不到的后果。

I talk about three questions：The first，The financial supervision the discussion and to our important significance；The second，Reform will affect how the entity economy；The third，We should be about how to best way to avoid to business unintended consequences。

　　背景 background

　　我们这一代的领导人所做的有关经济、金融和政策决策会对今后多年的发展产生影响。也许我们应当同情那些今天承担决策责任的人：身处自上世纪30年代以来最严峻的经济和金融危机之中，他们需要判断该如何摆脱危机继续前行，更有甚者，本次危机发生时又正值全球人口老龄化的当口，且经济增长率也低于预期。

We this generation of leaders do the relevant economic、Financial and policy decision may in the future years of development impact。Maybe we should pity those responsible for decision today：In since the 1930 s the most severe economic and financial crisis，They need to decide how to get rid of the crisis to move on，What is more，This crisis occurs again just when the world's population aging of the point，And the economic growth rate is lower than expected。

　　此外，发达国家的利率处于历史最低水平，且一般认为财政政策调整的空间也已不大，因此，应对经济和金融危机的手段非常有限。

In addition，The developed countries in the interest rate for the lowest level in history，And generally believe that fiscal policy adjustment of space has also is not big，therefore，Respond to economic and financial crisis means is very limited。

　　主要问题显而易见，但解决这些问题的能力和时间表却不清楚——欧洲主权债务危机及其对欧元的影响；许多发达国家窘迫的财政状况和反复出现的财政赤字；因人口老龄化而日益严重的医疗和养老金问题；不断加剧的不平等问题……所有这些问题的解决都需要采取决然行动，领袖们需要重建公众对未来的信心。

The main problem is obvious，But the ability to solve these problems and the timetable is not clear - Europe sovereign debt crisis and the influence of the euro；Many developed countries distress financial status and recurring fiscal deficit；For an aging population and the increasingly serious health care and pension problems；Rising inequality problem...All the solution of these problems have to take action and determinedly，Leaders need to rebuild public of confidence in the future。

　　信心是经济复苏的关键。如果对未来没有信心，则不会有投资，也没有人愿意借钱。没有固定的模式或现成的秘方来恢复或提高信心。至于政治、金融或企业界领袖们今日的言行能否激发起公众对未来的信心，诸君想必也是见仁见智。

Confidence is the key to economic recovery。If have no confidence in the future，It won't have investment，And no one is willing to borrow money。No fixed mode or ready-made secret recipe to restore or improve confidence。As for the political、Financial or business leaders today's words and deeds can stimulate the public of confidence in the future，Men thought also is opinions differ from each other。

　　无可回避，要建立对未来的信心，诸多必要行动是不受欢迎的，比如紧缩措施就几乎得不到公众的支持，因此需要有政治勇气和领导力来实施。

Inevitably,，To build confidence about the future，Many necessary action is not welcome，Such as austerity measures is almost can not get the support from the public，Therefore need a political courage and leadership to implement。

　　我们必须认识到，政治支持取决于许多因素，包括一种信念，即我们已经汲取了近期危机的教训，金融体系与其所服务的实体经济是对接的。

We must recognize that，Political support depends on many factors，Includes a belief，That is, we have been absorbing the lessons of the crisis of recent，The financial system and service entity economy is the butt。

　　目前隐含的重点是将监管改革的好处集中到国内经营方面，这是事实上的一种保护主义，例如：

At present the implicit key is to the advantage of regulatory reforms on domestic management aspects，This is in fact a kind of protectionism，For example：

　　更高的资本比率会导致基于分行的机构偏好在国内经营。对公司司库的风险是，如果银行的国内业务遇到困难或资本比率提高，则可能面临无法从国外分行获得融资的风险。

Higher capital ratio can lead to based on the branch institutions preference in domestic business。The risk is to the company treasurer，If the bank domestic business difficulty or capital ratio improve，May face can't from foreign branch to get financing risk。

　　监管加强，跨境资金流动会受到限制。例如，自监管机构开始要求提供风险敞口报告以来，美国共同基金对欧盟银行的短期融资已出现大幅减少，影响欧盟进出口商的融资能力。公司司库今后要花更多时间了解银行如何获得资金。

Strengthen supervision，Cross-border capital flow will be limited。For example，Since regulators began to demand that provide risk exposure since report，Mutual funds to the European Union bank short-term financing already appear sharply reduce，The influence of import and export business financing capability。In the future the company treasurer to spend more time to understand how Banks receive money。

　　优先考虑某些行业的结构性改革，如围栏策略（ring fencing）。这是否意味着你们需要更多的交易对手、签订新的信用支持附件（credit support annex，简称CSAs）并重新评估交易对手的实力？

Preferred some industry structural reform，Such as fence strategy（Ring fencing）。Does this mean that you need more counterparty、Sign a new credit support accessories（Credit support annex，Referred to as CSAs）And to evaluate the strength of the counterparty？

　　当前，政治与监管改革的互动似乎进入了一种“但求无过”（line of least regret）状态，主要是由于无法准确估计下一次危机的情况。“事后诸葛”式的反思会导致在两方面存在自欺欺人的情况——我们自己认为真正知道了问题的原因，所以我们可以采取恰当的行动来避免危机的再次爆发，或因为我们已经汲取了教训，所以不需要采取行动了。通过选择性引用某些符合我们观点的事件，我们会强化这种自欺欺人的现象，通过夸大负面因素来证明我们的立场是正确的——“我们也许走得太远了，但过高估计风险总比低估风险要好得多”；另一方面的观点则是“拟议中的行动会严重破坏实体经济”。其实，在这场争论中，双方都没有仔细考虑到如下两种可能性：为什么没有采取措施防止危机的爆发？为什么将系统推倒重来，以巨大的代价来解决并未发生或破坏程度低于预期的事件？

The current，Political and regulatory reform interaction seems to enter a“But beg without transgression”（Line of least regret）state，Mainly is unable to accurately estimate the next crisis situation。“Afterwards the various ge”Type reflection can lead to both ways exist self-deception - our own think really know the cause of the problem，So we can take appropriate actions to avoid crisis broke out again，Or because we have draw the lesson，So don't need to take action。Through the selective reference some meet our view of the event，We will strengthen this fools phenomenon，Through the exaggerated negative factors to prove our position is right --“We may go too far，But overestimated risk than underestimate the risk is much better”；On the other hand point of view is“The proposed action will wreak havoc on the real economy”。In fact，In this debate，Both sides are not careful consideration to the two kinds of possibility：Why not take measures to prevent the outbreak of the crisis？Why will system start all over again，At great expense to solve does not take place or damage than expected events？

　　我们欢迎政府为改善金融稳定和增强金融业活力所采取的措施——这些措施是必要的。但我们必须强调，我们需要明确广义金融体系——尤其是银行——应当发挥什么样的作用。要重建公众对金融业的信心，我们必须证明，金融业已经汲取了教训，社会利益战胜了私利。

We welcome the government to improve the financial stability and enhance the measures adopted by the financial industry energy - these measures is necessary。But we must emphasize，We need to clear the generalized financial system - especially bank, should play the role of what。To rebuild public confidence in the financial industry，We must prove that，The financial industry has draw the lesson，Social benefit over self-interest。

　　我们做得怎样 We do it

　　各类选民的利益诉求往往有冲突之处，如何平衡这些诉求以制订一个可行的、不产生意想不到后果的解决方案，一直是金融业及其监管机构面临的最大挑战。而且，当政策方案设计转向实际操作层面时，扭曲张力亦正在显现。创建一个有活力且可持续的环境，对经济繁荣至关重要，因为我们的客户需要在此环境下管理融资和风险。

All kinds of the voters' interest demand often have the place of conflict，How to balance these appeals to develop a feasible、Do not produce unexpected consequences of solutions，Has been the financial industry and one of the biggest challenges facing regulators。and，When the policy design to actual operation dimension，Distortion tension also is emerging。Create a dynamic and sustainable environment，Is very important to economic prosperity，Because our customer need in this environment management and financing risk。

　　已经取得哪些成就？ What achievements has been made？

　　我们已做了大量工作来更好地度量风险，建立损失储备和流动性，改善了单个机构管理风险的能力。

We have done a lot of work to better measure risk，Establish loss reserve and liquidity，Improved single institution risk management ability。

　　在更好识别系统性风险，并通过宏观审慎工具使监管机构根据风险识别重新调整信贷供给等方面，我们也取得了进展，但要将这些成就贯彻到实践中，工作尚处于起步阶段。

In better recognition systemic risk，And through the macroscopic prudent tools regulators according to risk identification readjust credit supply, etc，We also made progress，But will carry out these achievements to practice，Work is still in its beginning stages。

　　在不希望重演的领域，我们已经做了很多工作。但要明确改革后金融体系应发挥何等作用，我们的进展较为有限。

Do not want to repeat in the field，We have done a lot of work。But to clear after the reform of financial system should play what role，Our progress is relatively limited。

　　我们现在能够更好地度量系统崩溃的严重后果，但与以前相比，在预测下一次危机何时及因何原因发生方面，我们的能力没有明显提高。

We are now better able to metric system collapse of the serious consequences，But compared with before，In the prediction of the next crisis when and for what reasons occurred aspects，We ability has not been obviously improved。

　　由于无法预测下一次危机，我们认识到有效跨境解决方案的重要意义。要促成解决方案的实施，需要政治共识以改革并应对国家财政破产，但在这方面，我们尚未取得实质进展。

Unable to forecast the next crisis，We recognize that effective cross-border solutions important significance。To contribute to the implementation of the solution，Need to political consensus to reform and to deal with national finance bankruptcy，But in this respect，We have not yet to achieve substantial progress。

　　我们一直在争论什么是“审慎预警”以及什么是“不希望出现的结果”，但两者都有夸大下行风险的倾向，是典型的杯弓蛇影，谨小慎微。

We have been arguing over what is“Prudent warning”And what is“Unwanted results”，But both have exaggerated the tendency of downside risks，Is the typical afraid of one's shadow，meticulousness。

　　尽管有诸多不尽如人意之处，实事求是地讲，2011年我们确实做了很多工作，包括：金融稳定得以改善；金融体系与经济增长目标得以契合；更加可持续地将信贷资源配置到实体经济当中；更好地对接投资者和市场参与者的回报；改善市场基础设施；增强竞争；提高透明度；更加有效的监管，以及加强微观与宏观审慎监管之间的联系等。这些成就为银行业的未来构建了一个框架，如果成功的话，会产生巨大裨益。

Although there are many defects，Seeking truth from facts to speak，In 2011 we did do a lot of work，including：Financial stability will be improved；The financial system and economic growth target to fit；More sustainable will credit the allocation of resources to the entity of economy；Better butt investors and market participants returns；Improve market infrastructure；Enhance competition；transparency；More effective supervision，As well as strengthen the micro and macro prudential supervision of relations between。These achievements for banking future constructs a framework，If successful，Will produce great benefit。

　　进入2012年，争论的核心问题发生了改变，不再是关于应当作什么，而是关于如何管理过渡期、计划实施的时间表，以及避免不希望出现的后果。

In the 2012 years，The core issue of debate changed，No longer is about shall be??????，But about how to manage transition、The implementation of the scheme schedule，And avoid unwanted consequences。

　　现在真正需要的是领导力，需要决定在某个点上，我们必须停止在改革方案中加入新内容，而是去判断现在所做的一切是否足以改变市场参与者的行为，从而使金融体系总体上适应被普遍理解和接受的目的。

Now the real need is leadership，Need to decide at some point，We must stop in the reform plan to add new content，But to judge do now everything is enough to change the behavior of market participants，So that the overall financial system to adapt to is generally understood and accepted purpose。

　　我之所以这样说，是因为如果回顾一下已经进行的众多工作和正在策划的方案，我们可以看出若干突出的问题：

The reason that I say so，Because if the review has numerous work and are planning scheme，We can see some outstanding problems：

　　在法律和政策覆盖面上是否有漏洞？影子银行如何管理？

In the law and policy coverage if there is a loophole？Shadow Banks how to manage？

　　所有措施加在一起是否完备、有序？是否会相互促进？

All measures together is complete、orderly？Whether it will promote each other？

　　银行、保险、养老金及资产管理等领域的监管是否协调一致？

The bank、insurance、Pension and asset management and other areas of supervision is coordinated？

　　各国财政当局仅承担国内机构存款的或有风险，这种政策可以理解，但是否会冲销经济活动全球化？如果确实在某种程度上冲销了全球化发展，并建立起一种“国内市场”偏好，是否会影响到金融业向跨国公司所提供的服务和成本？这是否会改变欧洲企业与美国及亚洲企业的竞争格局？这是否有重大影响？

Countries financial authorities only undertake domestic institutions deposits or risk，This policy can understand，But whether you will write off economic activity globalization？If you do have a certain extent offsetting the globalization development，And set up a kind of“Domestic market”preference，Whether it will affect the financial industry to the multinational company which offers service and cost？Whether this will change the European enterprise and the United States and Asia enterprise's competition pattern？Does this have important influence？

　　政策更加关注系统重要性金融机构（SIFIs），对他们资本要求更高，监管更严，这样做，究竟会提升金融体系的稳定，抑或进一步拔高了这些机构的地位，从而使金融活动更加集中于这些机构？我们认为，到目前为止，有证据显示后一种情况更有可能出现。

Policy pay more attention to the system importance financial institutions（SIFIs），For their higher capital requirements，Supervision more strict，do，What can improve the stability of the financial system，Or further the marketability of the status of these institutions，So that the financial activities more focused on these institutions？We think，So far，There is evidence that the latter are more likely to occur。

　　我们是否太过关注产品、平台、基础设施、资本和流动性问题，因为这些因素能够界定和度量，而对难以界定和度量的行为问题关注不够？

Are we too focus on products、platform、infrastructure、Capital and liquidity problems，Because of these factors can define and measure，But to difficult to define and measure of behavioral problems enough attention？

　　切记，要让金融系统的面貌和行为变成我们希望的样子，硬性规则只是手段，绝非目的。如果我们采取不同的政策手段会怎样？我们到底希望金融系统中的人们如何行为？如果架构是优化的，金融体系该是个什么样子？这些问题很难证明，却也恰恰是我们当前探讨的焦点。官方很难真正把握金融业界管理层的意图、素质和行为。在“鹰派”人士看来，银行就是一个自私自利的机构，而我们银行家则认为自己被误解了。

Remember that，To make the financial system the appearance and behavior into we hope appearance，Rigid rules is only a means，Is no purpose。If we take the different policy means meeting how？We really hope that financial system of how people behavior？If the structure is optimized，What is the financial system like？The problem is difficult to prove，But also exactly is the focus of our current。The official is difficult to really grasp the financial industry management intention、Quality and behavior。in“hawks”People seems to，Bank is a selfish mechanism，And we bankers are consider themselves to be misunderstood。

　　但可以确定的是，如果我们保持一种不信任和敌视的态度，则为了证明各自的立场，我们会夸大下行风险，而这又会给客户增加不必要的成本。

But to be sure，If we keep a kind of mistrust and hostility attitude，Is to prove their respective positions，We will exaggerate downside risks，And it will give customers increase the unnecessary cost。

　　实施符合各方面预期的改革是一项十分严峻的挑战，但如果成功，会带来巨大裨益。

With the implementation of the expected reform is a very serious challenges，But if successful，Will bring great benefits。

　　我们需要非常谨慎，不要承诺过多。我们过去的承诺，诸如不提高生产率却指望经济增长；信贷增长超过我们辨识资源错配的能力；无首付的住房贷款；以为不必承担更高风险就能获得更高回报；日益增长的社会福利、养老金和医疗，却无相应的可持续财政支持等，都超出了可以实现的范围，也在很大程度上造成了目前的困境。

We need to be very careful，Don't promise much。In the past, we promise，Such as don't increase productivity but count on economic growth；Credit growth more than we identify resources mismatch ability；No down payment of housing loans；Think that don't need to take more risks can get higher returns；The growing social welfare、Pension and medical，But no corresponding sustainable financial support, etc，Are beyond the scope of can be realized，Also in the very great degree caused the current dilemma。

　　目前的多重政策目标明显地自相矛盾： The multiple policy goal obviously self-contradiction：

　　我们既需要稳定，又需要经济增长，既要促进经济增长，又要实行财政紧缩；

We both need stability，And the need to economic growth，Not only to promote economic growth，And should execute austerity；

　　我们既要银行增加贷款，又要银行增加资本金并提高资本比率；

We should increase bank loans，And Banks to increase capital and improve capital ratio；

　　我们希望银行体系自行筹集更多资本，同时又限制其业务范围和红利支出；

We hope that the bank system to raise more capital，At the same time, limit the scope of business and bonus expenditure；

　　我们希望看到金融服务业有更多竞争，但不希望看到可能吸引更多外部私人资本的高回报率；

We hope to see the financial service industry more competitive，But don't want to see may attract more external private capital of high rate of return；

　　我们希望增加更多资本以及安排更多缓冲、改变抵押品的规定、改善结算模式和组织结构设计，但我们目前并不清楚这些变化会如何改变需求或定价；

We hope to add more capital and arrange more buffer、Change the provisions of collateral、Improve settlement mode and organization structure design，But we are not clear these changes will be how to change requirements or pricing；

　　我们希望看到机构之间较少的相互联系，同时又能保持规模经营的好处；

We hope to see less between agencies are related to each other，At the same time, can maintain the benefits of scale operation；

　　我们一直在鼓励银行贷给政府更多钱，同时又进行压力测试以检验如果该政府违约会发生什么问题；

We are always encourage bank loans to government more money，At the same time, pressure test to test if the government default what will happen；

　　我们希望金融体系关注市场信号，但同时我们又不喜欢评级机构的观点；

We hope that the financial system concerned about the market signal，But at the same time we don't like the rating agencies point of view；

　　我们希望在场外衍生品交易中更多使用基于市场的定价方法，但我们又不真正了解信贷违约掉期是否符合这一目标；

We hope that in the otc derivatives trading more to use based on the market pricing method，But we have not really understand credit default swaps conform to this goal；

　　我们希望提高透明度，但又担心不明事件发生后市场会出现什么样的反应。

We hope to enhance transparency，But worry about unknown after the events in the market will appear what kind of reaction。

　　有些东西对少数人来说是好的、合理的，但对多数人来说则可能是灾难性的。如果有其他机构发挥补充作用，则降低一个机构或国家过高的杠杆率是应当的，但如果所有机构同时去杠杆化，则是有害的；如果使异常行为回归正常，或调整某个资产组合的风险偏好，则规避风险是好事，但如果所有机构同时这样做，则会造成巨大的“顺周期性”效应。

Some things, for a small group of people is good、reasonable，But for most people it could be disastrous。If there are other institutions play a supplementary role，Lower one institution or national high leverage it，But if all institutions and de-leveraging，Is harmful；If the abnormal behavior returned to normal，Or adjust a portfolio risk preference，The risk is a good thing，But if all institutions at the same time to do so，It can cause great“Paramagnetic periodic”effect。

　　去年，我们还汲取了其他一些教训，并辨认出若干意料之外的后果，值得我们反思：

Last year，We also derive some other lessons，And recognize some unexpected consequences，Worth our reflection：

　　我们认识到，根本就没有无风险的资产；

We recognize that，There is no risk-free assets；

　　我们认识到，在上次危机中，我们的模型失灵了，但我们仍然相信可以建立更好的模型；

We recognize that，In the last crisis，Our model failed，But we still believe that can build a better model；

　　我们认识到，一个经济体内，投资者持有更多国内资产，则该经济体的抗风险能力更强；

We recognize that，An economic body，Investors hold more domestic assets，The economies of the risk resistance ability is stronger；

　　我们希望金融服务业有更多竞争，因为这会导致多种交易平台和使用更多的技术，因此市场的相关程度会更高，但这会导致更大缓冲，因为多样化程度降低了；

We hope that the financial service industry more competitive，Because it can lead to a variety of trading platform and use more technology，So market related degree will be higher，But it will lead to a bigger buffer，Because diversification degree reduced；

　　我们赞赏相互关联性，如果关联性有助于风险分担和降低系统性危机；我们反对相互关联性，如果这会造成危机传导，而我们没有能力对其进行控制；

We appreciate relationship，If relevance help risk sharing and reduce systemic crisis；We oppose relationship，If this will cause crisis conduction，And we have no ability to carry on the control；

　　我们认识到，市场信号既可以反映竞争优势，也可以反映风险定价错误，还可以反映信息不对称，甚至可能同时反映这三种情形，但我们只能在事后才能了解，所以依赖这些信号时，我们应非常谨慎；

We recognize that，Market signal can reflect the competitive advantage，Can also reflect the risks pricing error，Can also reflect the information asymmetry，Even may also reflect the three kinds of situations，But we can only after the fact to understand，So dependent on these signal，We should be very careful；

　　我们理解了相互依赖性，即稳定的银行体系有赖于强有力的政府，而强有力的政府也有赖于强有力的银行，而且在危机时，金融体系会强行实施“本国偏好”，以保护国内存款人和国有资金；

We understand the mutual dependence，That is the banking system stability depends on powerful government，And powerful government also depends on strong bank，And in crisis，The financial system will be forced implementation“Their preference”，In order to protect domestic depositors and state-owned capital；

　　我们一直在促进贸易增长，欣然于低成本商品带来的低通货膨胀，但我们不能长久地掌控不断增长的持续性经常项目失衡；

We have been in promoting trade growth，Readily in low cost goods brought low inflation，But we can't control long growing persistent current-account imbalances；

　　我们需要更大透明度，由于技术进步，提高透明度促进了高频交易，这类交易占目前所有市场交易的75%以上，透明度可以揭示政策响应之前的趋势；

We need greater transparency，Due to technology advancement，To enhance transparency promotes the high-frequency trading，This kind of trading now account for more than 75% of all market transactions，Transparency can reveal policy response to the trend of before；

　　我们鼓励公众降低其负债率，但不提倡减少消费；

We encourage the public to reduce its leverage，But not calling for reducing consumption；

　　我们意识到，为了获得对一些措施的政治支持，有必要提醒公众如果不采取坚决措施的可怕后果，但这样做同时也不利于鼓励企业对未来进行投资；

We realize that，In order to obtain some measures to the political support，It is necessary to remind the public to take resolute measures if not terrible consequences，But to do so at the same time, and also to encourage enterprises to invest in the future；

　　可以预见，从融资角度讲，我们必须为未来设计一个相互联系程度较低的环境——较少的跨境融资、较少的外币融资等。

Can foresee，From the point of view of financing，We must design for the future a mutual contact degree lower environment - less cross-border financing、Less foreign currency financing, etc。

　　未来需关注的问题 The future problems need to be paid attention to

　　计划未来时，许多突出问题有待于解决。其中与公众关系最密切的问题有：

Plan the future，Many prominent problems to settle。Among them the most closely related with the public problem：

　　20国集团和金融稳定委员会（Financial Stability Board）制定银行公平竞争环境的权限，以及各国解决方案的范围；这显然会对如何及何处开展业务及成本产生影响；

The group of 20 countries and financial stability committee（Financial Stability Board）Make bank fair competition environment permissions，And the range of all solutions；This will obviously on how and where business and cost impact；

　　针对跨境业务的处置方案：这将如何影响原有债权人地位和权利？

According to the cross-border business disposal scheme：This will affect how the original creditor status and rights？

　　中央交易对手的治理结构和运行；谁必须提交抵押品？如果有人被豁免提交抵押品，是否会有竞争挑战？

The central counterparty governance structure and operation；Who must submit collateral？If someone was exempt submit collateral，Will there be a competitive challenges？

　　清算系统和交易所的未来作用；我们是否会再次经历风险敞口和结算账户的分割或集中？

The liquidation system and exchange future action；Whether we will again experience risk exposure and settlement account segmentation or concentration？

　　拟议中新流动性框架的具体化；这显然会影响信贷定价，以及为现金管理而持有的证券的流动性。

Proposed the embodiment of the new liquidity framework；This obviously affect the credit pricing，As well as the cash management and hold securities liquidity。

　　银行的哪些负债可能受到保护；这无疑会影响公众在什么机构保持存款。

The bank may be what liabilities under protection；This will undoubtedly influence public in what institutions keep deposit。

　　计算资本要求的风险权重之计算与审核方法的标准化；这事关公平竞争环境。

Calculation of the capital requirement of the risk weight calculation and examination methods of standardization；This is the fair competition environment。

　　重新评估主权债券的无风险待遇问题；这是否需要重新对风险曲线进行定价？

To evaluate the sovereign bonds without risk treatment problem；Whether this need to risk pricing curve？

　　有关资本受损状况的度量、对冲、证券估值的会计准则以及国际标准的一致性等问题都在研究之中。

The capital of the damaged condition measure、hedge、Securities valuation of the accounting standards and the international standard consistency problems are under investigation。

　　另一个重要问题是，英格兰银行金融政策委员会（Financial Policy Committee，简称FPC）已明确表示其希望行使的监管权力，包括逆周期的资本缓冲、行业资本规定和杠杆率等的指导权；也包括可调整的流动性工具、保证金规定、抵押品规定、信息披露要求、贷款/价值比率以及贷款/收入比率限制等。

Another important question is，The bank of England's monetary policy committee（Financial Policy Committee，Referred to as FPC）Already made it clear that the hope exercise regulatory power，Including countercyclical capital buffer、Industry capital regulations and leverage ratio, etc ZhiDaoQuan；Also includes adjustable liquidity tool、Margin provisions、Collateral rules、Information disclosure requirements、Loan/value ratios and loan/income ratio limit, etc。

　　我认为对公众来说这是一种新风险，因为大家需要了解行业资本规定的变化或评估新出现风险，这显然会极大影响信贷的可获得性和价格——美国政府目前正在收集货币市场基金对欧元区借款人的贷款情况就是一个例子。

I think it is to the public a new risk，Because you need to know about industry capital regulation changes or new risk assessment，This obviously will greatly influence credit availability and price, the U.S. government currently collecting money market funds to euro area the borrower loan situation is one example。

　　因此，前景总体上讲还很不确定，包括改革何时结束，以及银行业的资本状况、业务类型和未来回报率会是什么样子等。

therefore，Prospects in general is not sure，Including reform and when it ends，And the banking capital status、Business type and the future rate of return will be what appearance, etc.。

　　对公司司库的潜在影响有很多。例如获取外国货币和通过场外衍生品确定利率水平的能力，这种能力已经成为现代财务管理的基石。

The potential impact on the company treasurer there are many。For example for foreign currency and through the otc derivatives to determine the level of interest rates ability，This ability has become the cornerstone of modern financial management。

　　根据欧盟实施《巴塞尔资本协议》（Ⅲ）的草案，场外衍生品可能需要较高的、可变动的资本金，主要通过所谓信贷估值调整资本机制来确定。在提供了必要的保证金和抵押品之后，集中清算的衍生品可能会增加成本。

According to the European Union implementation《Basel capital agreement》（Ⅲ）draft，Otc derivatives may need higher、Can change capital，Mainly through the so-called credit valuation adjustment capital mechanism to determine。In providing the necessary margin and after collateral，Centralized liquidation of the derivatives may increase cost。

　　目前还不清楚欧洲的公司是否会与其亚洲和美国的竞争对手受到同样待遇。即使法律规定是一样的，市场定价惯例也可能会有利于某些参与者。例如，在需要长期投资的行业（发电厂、交通和飞机制造等），其最终产品（如船舶、石油开采平台、飞机发动机和动力涡轮机等）的买卖一般以美元计价结算。因此，美国的公司对使用衍生品进行货币和利率风险管理的需求较低，而欧洲的公司是最需要使用这类衍生品的客户之一。

It is not clear whether the European company with Asian and American competitors by the same treatment。Even if the law is the same，Market pricing practices also may help some participants。For example，In need of long-term investment industry（Power plant、Traffic and aircraft manufacturing, etc），The end product of（Such as ships、Oil exploitation platform、Aircraft engine and power turbine, etc）Business generally priced in dollars and settlement。therefore，American companies to use derivatives to currency and interest rate risk management of the demand is low，European companies is the most need to use this kind of derivatives one customer。

　　根据初步建议，由于实行新资本规定，公司会发现风险管理的成本将上升300%。对冲成本更高、波动性更大，可能会极大影响到欧洲企业管理其风险的能力和意愿，因此可能在全球市场上造成不平等的竞争环境。我们的重点是减轻公司的这部分负担。

According to preliminary Suggestions，Because of new capital rules，The company will find that risk management costs will rise 300%。Hedge higher costs、Greater volatility，May greatly affect the European business management the risk ability and intend to，So maybe in the global market cause not equal competition environment。We are focused on lighten the burden of this part。

　　这涉及更加广泛的全球标准一致性问题，以及监管改革是否有利于交易型模式而不是关系银行模式的问题。

This involves more extensive global standard consistency problem，And regulatory reform whether it helps transaction mode instead of relationship between the problem of bank mode。

　　最终结果的影响将是巨大的，因此监管争论必须明确几个关键问题：

The influence of the final result will be huge，So supervision argument must be clear about the several key problems：

　　全球标准的一致性问题；

The global standard consistency problem；

　　监管的累积效应；

Supervision of cumulative effect；

　　金融业服务于并支持实体经济的能力。

The financial industry in the service and support the ability of entity economy。

　　在不确定性日益增加的环境下经营，公司尤其是司库必须考虑如下问题：

In uncertainty growing environment management，The company especially treasurer must consider the following questions：

　　管理企业风险的成本可能如何变化并产生更大波动性；

The cost of risk management enterprise may be how to change and produce greater volatility；

　　公司是否充分理解信贷可获得性和定价可能发生的变化，因为在未来监管框架内，信用违约掉期（CDS）的定价将变得更加重要；

Does the company fully understand credit availability and pricing the possibility of change，Because in the future regulatory framework，Credit default swaps（CDS）Pricing will become more important；

　　为了应对上述不断变化的挑战，公司的融资功能定位是否恰当。

In order to deal with the challenge of the changing，The company's financing function orientation is appropriate。

　　如果要使多数改革取得成功，我们需要更多关注我们希望金融体系在总体上发挥什么作用，而不是是否需要具体的改革。我们需要你们的坦诚建议，因为仍然有太多人认为银行业是个自私自利的行业。

If you want to make most of the reform success，We need to pay more attention to our financial system in general play function，Not if you need specific reform。We need your honest advice，Because there are still too many people think that banking is a selfish industry。

　　本文由清华大学五道口金融学院康以同摘译自汇丰控股集团董事长道格拉斯·弗林特（Douglas Flint）2012年4月17日在英国利物浦公司司库协会年会上的演讲。小标题为译者添加。

This paper by tsinghua university wudaokou financial institute kang with select from HSBC holdings group chairman of the board of directors Douglas flinders（Douglas Flint）On April 17, 2012 in the UK Liverpool company treasurer association annual meeting speech。Small title for the translator to add。