郭田勇（中央财经大学金融学院教授）

Guo TianYong（Central university of finance and economics professor financial institute）

　　出于业绩考虑，银行近几年时常在“以量补价”和“以价补量”之间徘徊。目前经济出现下滑趋势，银行眼中的优质客户在减少，风险在增大，房贷利率优惠范围的调整恐与银行当下的经营压力有关。

For performance consider，Banks often in recent years“With quantity premium”and“To fill quantity price”Hovering between。The present economic appeared to decline，The bank's eye in reducing clients，Risk increases in，Mortgage interest rate preferential range of adjustment and the risk of bank business pressure relevant。

　　李迅雷（海通证券(600837,股吧)首席经济学家）

LiXunLei（Haitong securities(600837,guba)Chief economist）

　　放松户籍管制，中国应该还能释放出更多的人口红利，但需要更多社会保障支出来维护流动人口，避免贫民区的扩大。而巨额福利支出从哪里来？一靠财税体制、行政体制改革；二靠竞争领域的国有企业退出，拍卖转让；三靠农村土地改革。最终让改革红利接棒人口红利。

Relax census register control，China should also can release more of the population dividend，But need more social security expenditure to safeguard the floating population，Avoid the expansion of slums。And huge welfare expenditure come from？A by the fiscal and taxation system、Administrative system reform；Two in the field of competition by state-owned enterprises exit，Auction transfer；Three on rural land reform。Finally let reform bonus joint rod demographic dividend。

　　刘煜辉（社科院金融重点实验室

LiuYuHui（Cass financial key laboratory

　　主任）

director）

　　现在多讲此次经济下行是结构性下行而非周期性下行，潜台词有三：经济的短期波动（存货高低引致）消失；供应面因素 （增长的中长期因素）和需求面的逻辑基础（进入债务调整周期）的变化成为主体；需求管理的政策改变不了下行趋势。

Now speak the economic descending is structural descending and aperiodic descending，Subtext three：Short-term fluctuations in the economy（Inventory level caused）disappear；Supply surface factors （Medium and long term growth factors）And demand the logic basis（Enter the debt restructuring period）Change become main body；Demand management policy change descending trend。