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投资加码 勿忘风险--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-23

  从近期重庆、贵州、长沙、南京等地公布的地方投资计划可以看出,新兴产业、消费行业、环保民生等行业将成为本轮经济刺激重点,与前一轮投资刺激不同,传统产业、过剩产业以及基本饱和的行业不再成为地方经济关注重点。从这些投资行业的变化,可以看出产业升级和行业更迭在演化推进,这无疑将影响中国产业经济的发展方向。在关注投资行业变化同时也需要关注潜在风险,如何把钱花到刀刃上,同时不扩大风险将考验地方政府的运作能力。

From the recent chongqing、guizhou、changsha、Nanjing published local investment plan can be seen,Emerging industry、Consumption industry、Environmental protection industries will be the people's livelihood this round of economic stimulus key,And the former round of investment different stimulating,The traditional industry、Excess industry and basic saturation industry is no longer a local economic attention。From the change of the investment industry,Can see that industrial upgrade and industry alternation in evolution propulsion,This undoubtedly will affect China's industrial economic development direction。Focusing on investment industry change at the same time also need to pay attention to the potential risk,How to spend money to blade,At the same time do not expand risk will test the local government operation ability。

  1-7月固定资产投资同比名义增速为20.4%,回稳的趋势被市场所认同,这一点从中央地方投资的增速以及新开工项目的数量上可以佐证。7月,中央项目投资累计增长-3%,降幅比前6个月缩小1.1个百分点,地方项目增速比前6个月回落0.1个百分点。不同产业增速也出现分化,传统基建行业依然处于较低位置,而一些新兴行业止跌回稳的态势得到了稳固。可以预见,在诸多地方推出新的刺激计划后,电子信息、物联网、物流、环保、新兴生物医药等行业将获得更多资金支持,未来这些新兴行业有望替代传统的地产、水泥、钢铁等产业,成为拉动经济增长,解决就业和民生问题的重要力量。

1 - July fixed asset investment grew 20.4% year-on-year name,The trend of the recovered by market place identity,This point from the central place of investment growth as well as the number of new projects on the evidence。July,The central project investment accumulated growth of 3%,By the previous six months down to 1.1%,Local project growth than the previous six months dropped 0.1%。Different industry growth also appear differentiation,Traditional construction industry is still in a lower position,And some emerging industry reason bounce back situation got solid。Can foresee,In many places the new stimulus plan,Electronic information、Things networking、logistics、Environmental protection、Emerging biomedical industries will get more money to support,The future of these emerging industry is expected to replace the traditional real estate、cement、Iron and steel industries,Become stimulate economic growth,Solving the employment and the people's livelihood of the important strength。

  此外,还需关注的是民间投资的增长。1-7月,全国民间固定资产投资11.4万亿元,同比增长25.5%,增速比1-6月回落0.3个百分点。其中,工业民间固定资产投资5.9万亿元,同比增长29.1%,增速比1-6月提高0.2个百分点。从整体看,1-7月,民间资本投资在第一、第二、第三产业中的增速都高于全国固定资产投资增速。从微观看,部分鼓励民间资本进入石油天然气开采、教育、卫生等行业的措施已成效初显。上半年民间投资保持了较快的增长势头,已成为投资增长新动力(310328,基金吧)。随着“非公36条”细则的全部出台,下半年细则将进入重点落实阶段。相信未来民间投资在市政、能源、电信等领域会有更进一步的进展。

In addition,Still need to pay attention to is the growth of the private investment。1 - July,The national folk investment in the fixed assets 11.4 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 25.5%,Increasing ratio 1 - June dropped 0.3%。the,Industrial folk investment in the fixed assets 5.9 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 29.1%,Increasing ratio 1-6 months increased by 0.2%。See from the whole,1 - July,The folk capital investment in the first、The second、In the tertiary industry growth is higher than the national fixed asset investment growth。From microscopic to see,Part of the encourage private capital into the oil and gas exploitation、education、Health industries has effective measures at the beginning of the show。In the first half of the folk investment maintained rapid growth momentum,Has become the new investment growth(310328,Fund it)。with“Non-state-owned 36”Rules on all,The second half of the detailed rules for the implementation of phase into a key。Believe that the private investment in the town、energy、Telecommunications and other areas will have further progress。

  虽然各项刺激计划令市场为之振奋,但如何解决融资问题仍需各级政府下一番工夫。可以看出,部分投资计划所涉及的行业是信贷政策所支持的,这种差异化的行业政策可能会受到银行资金的青睐。同时,不同地区经济的差异,也会使相关的项目更具针对性和可操作性。例如,宁波市相关政策凸显对小微企业的减税免税和融资渠道拓展,南京的政策凸显对汽车、信息等相关行业需求的推动。此外,除寻求传统的银行信贷融资外,信政合作、城投债发行、融资租赁等方式也将是下一步地方政府亟需拓展的渠道,尤其是债券市场和融资租赁,未来会更多利好政策出台可期。

Although the stimulus package to market to exciting,But how to solve the financing problem is still need a lot of government at all levels。Can see,Part of the investment plan involves the industry is the support of the credit policy,The differentiation of industry policy could be affected by the favour of bank funds。At the same time,Different regional economic differences,Also can make relevant projects more pertinence and maneuverability。For example,Ningbo relevant policy highlight for small micro enterprise's tax credit and expand the financing channels,Nanjing policy highlight for automobile、Information and other related industries to promote demand。In addition,In addition to seek traditional bank credit financing outside,Believe political cooperation、City for debt issuance、Financing leasing way also will be the next step local governments need to expand channels,Especially the bond market and finance lease,The future will be more bullish policies can period。



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