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寻找投资的第二层次思维--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-27

  2012年7月,风靡全球的《投资最重要的事》被翻译成中文,引进中国内地。

In July 2012,"The《Investment is the most important thing》Been translated to Chinese version,Introduction of mainland China。

  “当我看到邮件里有霍华德?马克斯写的投资备忘录,我做的第一件事就是马上打开阅读。现在我读他的书又重读了这些备忘录。”——这本面世于去年5月的书,沃伦?巴菲特已经读了两遍。

“When I saw the mail has Howard?Max write investment memorandum,The first thing I would do is opened to reading。Now I read his book and reread the memo。”Available - the book in May last year book,warren?Buffett have read it twice。

  66岁的作者马克斯比巴菲特小16岁,拥有沃顿商学院的金融学学士学位和芝加哥大学会计与市场营销学的工商管理硕士学位,曾先后供职于第一花旗银行(花旗集团的前身)和西部资产管理公司,并于1995年创建了美国橡树资本管理有限公司。

The 66 - year - old author Max than buffett small 16 years old,For the Wharton school of business has a bachelor's degree in finance, university of Chicago, and accounting and marketing master of business administration degree,Has worked for the first national city bank of New York(Citigroup's predecessor)And western asset management companies,And in 1995 created the United States oak capital management co., LTD。

  作为主席与共同创始人,马克斯现在管理的资产规模高达800亿美元,是中国最大基金公司规模的两倍以上、巴菲特管理的伯克希尔公司资产规模的1/5,而他150亿美元的个人财富,相当于巴菲特的1/3。

As chairman and founder of the common,Max now management asset scale as much as $80 billion,Is China's largest scale of fund company more than twice as much、Buffett management Berkshire assets scale 1/5,And he $15 billion of personal wealth,Equivalent to a third of the buffett。

  持续性的价值 Continuous value

  如果说,价值投资是一场人生旅行,那么,在金钱永不眠的金融市场,时间就是最好的证明。与巴菲特一样,在投身顶级资产管理行业的40余年里,马克斯以对市场机会和风险的深刻见解享有盛誉,他的备忘录成为了华尔街金融人士的必读本。

if,The value investment is a journey,so,In the money never sleep of financial markets,Time is the best proof。And buffett as,In all top asset management industry in more than 40 years,Max to market opportunities and risks insights enjoy great popularity,His memo became the Wall Street financial people the required。

  《投资最重要的事》详述了“第二层次思维”、价格/价值关系、耐心等待机会以及多元化投资等概念,马克斯对自身的决策以及偶尔的失误做出了坦诚的评价,为读者进行批判性思考、风险评估、建立投资策略提供了宝贵经验和教训。

《Investment is the most important thing》described“The second level thinking”、Price/value relations、Patience to wait for opportunities and diversified investment and concept,Max for their own decisions and the occasional mistakes made honest evaluation,The critical thinking、Risk assessment、To establish investment strategy has provided valuable experiences and lessons。

  作者鼓励投资者做“逆向投资者”,明智地判断市场周期,采取大胆而谨慎的行动获取收益。他和巴菲特相似又不同,正如央视《学习巴菲特》节目主讲人、汇添富基金公司首席投资理财师刘建位在推荐序中所提到的:“巴菲特投资最初主要是股票投资,后来更多是收购和经营企业,而霍华德完全是证券投资,而且主要是股票投资。”

The author encouraged investors to do“Reverse investors”,Wisely judgment market cycle,Take bold and prudent action for income。He and Mr Buffett similar and different,As CCTV《Study buffett》Show the speaker、Collect add rich fund company chief finance and investment to build a j in recommended mentioned in the sequence of:“Buffett investment initially mainly is the stock investment,Later is more acquisitions and business enterprise,And Howard is completely securities investment,And mainly is the stock investment。”

  单从这点来看,马克斯所驾驭的证券市场,更像是在应对一座座海市蜃楼,有着诸多的不确定性,若仅以常规的思维方式,显然是难以战胜市场。

Single from this point of view,Max will soon securities market,More like in responding to place a mirage,Has a lot of uncertainty,If only by conventional way of thinking,Obviously is hard to beat the market。

  “全部投资者都战胜市场是不可能的,因为他们全体就是市场。”马克斯说,正如巴菲特的那句名言:“只有当潮水退去的时候,你才会发现谁在裸泳。”

“All investors against market is impossible,Because they all is market。”Max said,As buffett's the famous saying:“Only when the tide goes out of time,You will find out who's been swimming naked。”

  学习更加敏锐的思维,马克斯为读者提供了广阔的思路和看点。只是这样的要求不是达到平均水平,而是超越市场。

Learning more sharp thinking,Max for readers with a broad idea and attraction。Just such a request is not reached the average level,But go beyond the market。

  战胜市场?这一点的确难以置信。我们知道,在复杂多变的现实环境中,长期战胜市场的人凤毛麟角,而马克斯则以真实优越的投资业绩与倾尽半生的时间记录证明了:持续性的价值。

Beat the market?This is incredible。We know that,In a complicated reality environment,Long-term win over the market rare breed,And Max criterion with real superior investment performance and best half time record proved:Continuous value。

  第二层次思维 The second level thinking

  准投资者们可以学习财会课程,广泛阅读,抑或有幸获得大师指导,但只有一小部分能够获得维持高于平均水平的结果所需的非凡洞察力、直觉、价值观念和心理意识。

Prospective investors can learn accounting course,Extensive reading,Or lucky enough to get the master guidance,But only a small part of the can obtain the result of maintaining prep above is average level for special insight、intuition、Value concept and mental consciousness。

  “想要做到这一点,需要拥有第二层次思维。”可什么是第二层次思维呢?

“Want to do this,Need to have the second level thinking。”But what is the second level thinking?

  马克斯用例子说明。第一层次思维说:“这是一家好公司。让我们买进股票吧。”第二层次思维说:“这是一家好公司,但是人人都认为它是一家好公司,因此它不是一家好公司。股票的估价和定价都过高,让我们卖出股票吧。”

Max with example。The first level thinking said:“This is a good company。Let us buy stocks in it。”The second level thinking said:“This is a good company,But everyone think it is a good company,So it wasn't a good company。Stock valuation and pricing are too high,Let us sell stock it。”

  为了更加清晰形象地说明,作者给出了一连串第二层次思维者所需要思考的问题:未来可能出现的结果会在什么范围之内?我的预期与人们的共识有多大差异?资产的当前价格与大众所认为的未来价格以及我所认为的未来价格相符的程度如何?价格中所反映的共识心理是过于乐观还是过于悲观?如果大众的看法是正确的,资产价格将会发生怎样的改变?如果我是正确的,资产价格又会怎样?

In order to more clear image that,The author gives a series of second level thinking person need thought:The possibility of future results will be within the scope of what?I expected and the consensus of people have much difference?The current price of assets and the public think future price and what I think of future price match degree?Price reflects the consensus psychological is too optimistic or too pessimistic?If the public opinion is correct,Asset prices will happen what kind of change?If I was right,Asset prices and meeting how?

  不可否认,第二层次思维直指的突破常规,是一种不错的思维方式,只是在投资行为中,常常容易被投资者忽略,甚至完全没有想到。

undeniable,The second level thinking directed at breakthrough routine,Is a kind of good way of thinking,Just in the investment behavior,Investors often easy to ignore,Even had never expected。

  相信很多人有类似的经历,因为周围人的不看好,或者“丑闻”股票的大段跌停而恐慌,结果忽视了投资的独特性和连贯性。消息也好,数据也罢,我们在获取新信息的时候,极少思考投资的第二性:“谁不知道这些信息”,却对数以百万份相似的市场报告乐此不疲。

Believe that a lot of people have a similar experience,Because of the people around not valued,or“scandal”Stock long drop stop and panic,Results ignored the uniqueness of investment and consistency。News or,Data or,We acquire new information,Rarely think about investment secondary:“Who does not know the information”,But for millions of similar market report itself。

  不输球就好 Don't lose the good

  在相信利润动机的普遍性基础的同时,马克斯认为对内在价值的准确估计、低买高卖以及坚定持有足以构建价值投资者所能期待的最好结果。

Believe in the universality of the profit motive based at the same time,Max believe the intrinsic value of the accurate estimate、Buy low and sell high and firm hold enough to build value investors can expect the best results。

  面对变化无常的市场,马克斯极少预测,但却始终注意保持着持之以恒的警醒。“事先你只需知道:了解当前正在发生的一切,便能窥见崩溃的端倪。”

In the face of the vicissitude of the market,Max rarely prediction,But always keep the watch of perseverance。“You just need to know in advance:Understand the current what is happening,Can see the beginning of collapse。”

  不知道未来,只关注所处的位置。这位玩转垃圾债和泡沫的投资大师从不惧怕风险,这从他2000年1月1日在《泡沫.com》中看到高科技股泡沫崩盘,2008年金融危机期间,发行了109亿美元的基金购买不良债务,最终收益颇丰,以及其公司在2009年3月成为美国政府指定的9家投资集团之一,负责按“公私投资计划”吸收处于困境银行的“有毒”债务等等行为中就可见一斑。

Do not know the future,Only pay attention to position。The play junk debt and foam investment master never afraid of risk,This from his January 1, 2000 in《Foam. Com》Seen in the high-tech stocks bubble collapse,During the financial crisis in 2008,Release the $10.9 billion fund to buy bad debts,Eventually benefited a lot,And the company in March 2009 the United States government appointed one of nine investment group,Responsible for according to“Public and private investment plan”Absorption in a corner of the bank“toxic”In debt and so on behavior is obvious。

  面对高收益债券投资的提问,马克斯常常拿网球赛来做比喻,要想成为冠军,不一定要会扣球,不输球就行了。

In the face of high-yield bonds investment questions,Max often take tennis to do the parable,If you want to be champion,Not necessarily to smash,Don't lose it。

  作为风险的控制者,其异乎常人的第二层次思维认为,高收益并不总是为了补偿高风险而存在,与之相反,高收益高风险的惯性思维极可能由于盲目崇拜而导致致命错误。为此,马克斯列举了在价值投资中,当以低于价值买进证券的时候,高收益、低风险可以同时实现。因为市场不会永远以高收益高风险的一种方式运作,否则风险也就失去意义。

As the risk of controller,It was a normal second level that thinking,High yield is not always to compensate for high risk exists,Contrary to,High yield high-risk inertia thinking is likely due to the blind worship and lead to fatal error。therefore,Max lists in the value of the investment,When to buy securities is lower than the value of the time,High yield、Low risk can be realized at the same time。Because the market will not forever with high yield high risk a way of operation,Otherwise the risk is meaningless。

  当然,20件浓缩的投资最重要的事很难在此一次说尽,马克斯也以细致入微、深入浅出的方式为读者娓娓道来,更适用于投资者不断地去阅读与体味。在一个个概念的背后,理论在实践中进行第二层次思维,被洗涤得晶莹透亮。似乎作者是在用自己的半生告诫读者那对投资第二层次之上的惊人思考。

Of course,20 a concentrated investment of the most important things in this time is difficult to utter,Max also with meticulous、Simple way to explain for readers,More suitable for investors constantly to read and appreciate。In each of the concept behind,Theory in practice the second level thinking,Be washing have glittering and translucent and bright。Seems the writer is in their own half warned readers the investment on the second level of the amazing thinking。



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