低迷市道，人们确实需要来点娱乐化的东西消解情绪，但理性甚至冰冷的价值判断不能因此而被束之高阁，相反，这个时候人们尤其需要冷静判断一些大事情，把视野放宽到足够大，才能更准确地理解当下，才能更清晰地看到未来。

Downturn conditions，People really need to point more entertaining things digestion mood，But the rational even cold value judgment cannot thus be on the shelf，instead，This time people especially need to cool judgment some big things，The field of vision to relax to large enough，Can more accurate understanding of the present，To see more clearly the future。

　　这个大事情，不是资金面，更不是技术面，当然也不是当下宫廷政治的七七九九，它是由美国经济学家考恩（Tyler Cowen）针对中国经济最新提出来的判断：正如奥地利学派所预言和发现的，中国可能出现重大而持久的经济停滞。

The big things，Not financing area，More is not a technical level，It certainly isn't present the palace politics，It is by the American economists cowen（Tyler Cowen）According to China's economic latest out judgment：As Austrian school predicted and discovery，China may appear significant and lasting economic stagnation。

　　考恩认为，长久以来，沉迷于基础设施建设的中国将其国民收入的40%到50%用于投资，但却很难明智地运用这么大的投资，尤其是在一个徇私舞弊的经济环境中，何况这样的投资率从最开始就高过头了。而在中国经济变得越来越难有效刺激增长的局面之下，如果政府继续为支持投资而进一步补贴，将更加限制消费并扭曲资源分配，使中国经济停滞不前。

Cowen think，For a long time，Indulge in infrastructure construction of China will its national income 40% to 50% for investment，But it is difficult to wise use of such a large investment，Especially in an engaging in malpractices for personal gain economic environment，How much more will this investment rate from the start high overslept。And in China's economy becomes more and more difficult to effectively stimulate growth under the situation，If the government to continue to support the investment and further subsidies，Will be more limited consumption and distorted resource allocation，To make China's economy stagnated。

　　毫无疑问，如何看待这一判断，不但是摆在中国高层面前的重要事情，也是目前市场必须思考和面对的重大问题。

There is no doubt that，How to treat this judgment，Not only in front of China's top of the important things，It is also the market must be thinking and the major problems。

　　可以想象，这个由一位外国人提出的针对中国经济的悲观判断，肯定不会得到所有中国精英的认同，甚至还可能遭到很多御用精英的极力反驳，但这个判断迅速在金融圈内获得私下热议的情形，至少说明多少击中了一点中国经济的要害。因为，考恩所描述的经济前景，也正是当下中国最为担忧的事情。

Can imagine，The proposed by a foreigner in China's economic pessimism judgment，Won't get all the Chinese elite identity，Even may suffer a lot of queen's elite to refute，But this judgment rapidly in the financial circle get hot debate in the situation，At least that many hit the point of China's economy the key。because，Cowen description of the economic outlook，It is also the present China most worried about things。

　　如果仅从经济学逻辑思考这位美国人提出的问题，答案肯定五花八门，我们并非经济学家，无法从理论高度严密论证其判断合理与否，但如果看看当下中国经济的实际情况，再结合中国人固有的“盛极而衰”的文化思维习惯，或许你会变得比考恩更悲观。

If only from the perspective of economics, the logical thinking the American questions，The answer must be multifarious，We are not economists，Can't from theory height rigorous proves that the judgment reasonable or not，But if you look at the actual situation of China's economy，Combine Chinese inherent“Cheng pole and failure”Cultural thinking habit，Perhaps you will become more pessimistic than cowen。

　　这里强调一下，千万不要小看这种文化心理，从古至今，中国始终没有逃脱这一套。一如西方人刻进骨子的自由、民主思想，中国人的“盛极而衰”、“否极泰来”、“治乱循环”等文化心理同样深入人心。

The emphasis here，Don't look down on this kind of cultural psychology，In all ages，China has always not escape this one。As westerners carved into the freedom of the frame、Democratic thought，The Chinese“Cheng pole and failure”、“After a storm comes a calm”、“Governing revolution cycle”Cultural psychology also thorough popular feeling。

　　更重要的是，这种盛衰治乱的周期性更迭大多是通过破坏来完成的，正所谓“不破不立”——这种情形不但完美地体现在政治社会经济层面，在股票市场上也司空见惯，你看，“破了2100点反而会好”的观点不也正盛行于当下市场吗？

More important is，The ups and downs of governing revolution periodic change are mostly through the damage to finish，so-called“Nothing down, nothing up”- this situation not only perfectly reflected in political and social economic level，In the stock market is all in a day's work，You see，“Broke 2100 points it will better”The view is also popular in the market？

　　当然，我们这里讲的“破坏”，有好的“破坏”，也有不好的“破坏”。好的“破坏”总是体现为变革，体现为改良，往往是促进社会经济进步的，而坏的“破坏”总是表现为战争，表现为革命，往往是造成社会经济倒退的。

Of course，We here“damage”，Have a good“damage”，Also has bad“damage”。good“damage”Always embodied in change，Embodied in the improvement，Often is to promote the economic and social progress，The bad“damage”Always for the performance of the war，Performance for the revolution，Is often caused the social and economic retrograde。

　　按照这样一个逻辑，我们很难说服自己不去相信，“盛极而衰”的事是可能要发生的。远的姑且不表，就拿最近30年的改革开放来说，中国在短短30年内迅速创造了全球第二的GDP，积累了巨额社会物质财富，各种产品应有尽有，可以说丰富得不得了（按经济学家的说法是“过剩”了），可谓“前所未有”，可谓“盛极”。

According to such a logic，It is hard to convince myself not to believe，“Cheng pole and failure”Is is likely to happen。Far 1 table，Take the last 30 years of reform and opening up speaking，China in a short span of 30 years quickly created the world's second GDP，Accumulated a huge social material wealth，All kinds of products has everything，Can say rich fun（According to the economist says“excess”the），is“unprecedented”，is“Cheng extremely”。

　　而“盛极”之时，往往是问题丛生、利益固化之际，再继续往前无疑障碍重重，难度系数只会越来越高。而现实又要求我们必须有一个较高速度的增长，以维系各种稳定的关系和结构，但事实上我们却很难做到。怎么办？难道真要像这位美国人说的那样陷入长期停滞吗？难道真要重蹈日本“失去的十年”吗？

and“Cheng extremely”of，Is often full problems、Interests of curing，Continue to go no doubt many obstacles，The difficulty coefficient will become more and more high。Reality and requires that we must have a high speed growth，To sustain all kinds of stable relationship and structure，But in fact we are difficult to do。do？Don't really like the americans say that in long-term stagnation？Don't really need to repeat the Japanese“Lost ten years”?？

　　如果大家都不愿陷入“停滞”或“失去”的泥淖，目前以我们的才智，或者以大多数具备中国固有文化心理的人的习惯思维，除了“破”之外，可能已别无他途。

If they don't want to fall into“stagnation”or“lose”The mire of，At present in our wisdom，Or by most have Chinese inherent culture psychological habit thinking，In addition to“broken”outside，May already have no alternative。

　　既然“破”可能发生，剩下的关键就是，中国决策精英在可选择的情况下以何种方式去“破”。许小年说得好，积极变革可能是我们唯一的希望所在。但需要提醒的是，积极变革需要越早越好，最好不要等到无法选择的时候，否则，后果难以预料。

since“broken”possible，The rest of the key is，China decision elite in the choice in what way to go“broken”。XuXiaoNian well said，Positive change may be our only hope place。But what need reminds is，Positive change requires the sooner, the better，Best don't wait when cannot choose，otherwise，Unpredictable consequences。

　　或许有人会担忧如此主动的“破”将带来风险，甚至会让中国经济离开既有轨道，但如果发展到被动“破”岂不要付出更高昂的代价。所谓“两害相权取其轻”，我们相信凡是理性的决策都会毫不犹豫地选择前者。

Maybe someone will worry so active“broken”Will bring risk，Even will make China's economy from both the orbit，But if the development to passive“broken”Do not pay more high price。The so-called“Of two evils choose the light”，We believe that every rational decision will not hesitate a moment to prefer the former。

　　据传，最近研究法国历史的一本大作《旧制度与大革命》正流行于精英阶层，作者托克维尔在这本书里讲的很多问题和道理，说的其实就是这种无法选择情况下发生的诸多事情。托克维尔告诉我们，当时的法国，整个上层深信不疑，只要经济继续发展，统治就将在安稳的状态下传承千秋万代，政治社会的变革根本就无足轻重。但最后发生的历史事实残酷地告诉我们，不是贫穷，而恰恰是经济的繁荣加速了革命，是社会的沉闷带来了危机，是政治的冰冷卷起了风暴。

reportedly，Recent studies French history one of the article《The old system and revolution》Is popular in elite，The author tocqueville in this book about a lot of problems and reason，It is this cannot choose cases happened many things。Tocqueville tell us，The French，In the upper，As long as the economy continue to develop，Rule will in smooth and steady state inheritance for thousands of years，Political and social changes was insignificant。But finally happen historical fact cruelly tell us，Poverty is not，And just is the prosperity of economy accelerated the revolution，Is the social depressing brought the crisis，Is a political cold rolled up a storm。

　　我们不是经济学家，当然也无意客串政论家，既不敢对此妄言，更不敢轻易论断，提起这些，只是想告诫一下市场，对于投资者而言，如果看不到这种“破”的发生，而且是很积极的那种，那么市场要真正的好转是非常困难的。

We are not economists，Of course also had no intention of a political commentator，This is not the rudiments，Can't judge easily，Raise the，Just want to warn the market，For investors，If you can't see this“broken”happened，And it is very positive that，So the market to really improve is very difficult。