和讯网消息 中金公司首席经济学家彭文生今日发表研究报告称，美国出台新一轮量化宽松的概率增加，而QE3的推出将有助于中国改善外部需求，有利于中国宏观政策在稳增长和控房价之间的平衡。

HeXunWang news cicc's chief economist PengWenSheng published research report says today，The United States issued a new round of quantitative easing probability increase，And QE3 launch will help China to improve external demand，For China's macro policy in steady growth and control the balance between house prices。

　　报告指出，9月中的FOMC会议上，美联储很可能会延长低利率承诺期限，也可能把期限与一些经济复苏数据挂钩。美联储在下半年宣布推出QE3是大概率事件，而9月就宣布推出QE3的概率亦有六成。从国际环境来看，欧洲可能同步、甚至更早实施量化宽松。

The report says，In September the late-march FOMC meeting，The fed will probably extend the time limit for acceptance low interest rates，May also take time and some economic recovery data hook。In the second half of the federal reserve announced the launch of QE3 is a big probability event，But September is announced the launch of the probability of QE3 also have sixty percent。See from the international environment，Europe may synchronous、Even earlier implement quantitative easing。

　　在美国面临财政紧缩的压力下，量化宽松有助于稳定美国国内需求，进而有助于防止中国出口增长进一步大幅下滑。

In the United States face under the pressure of austerity，Quantitative easing help stabilize the domestic demand，And then help to prevent a sharp slowdown in China's export growth further。

　　目前，中国面临资本净流出导致的流动性偏紧局面，如果QE3 带来美元贬值压力，引导国际资本流入新兴市场国家，将有利于抵消中国的资金流出压力，从而舒缓国内市场流动性，对风险偏好也可能有正面影响。这和QE2时期的情况很不一样。

At present，China is faced with the net outflow of capital in the partial tight liquidity situation，If QE3 bring dollar depreciation pressure，Guide the international capital flows into the emerging market countries，China will contribute to offset capital outflow pressure，So as to relieve the domestic market liquidity，To the risk preference may also have positive influence。This and QE2 period is very different。

　　基于中国当前增长动能疲弱，通胀压力温和，QE3的推出不会导致国内货币政策收紧，总体有利于中国当前宏观调控的有效性。而就房地产市场而言，QE3等外部环境变化带来的刺激，比国内货币政策主动放松的影响小。

Based on China's current weak growth kinetic energy，Mild inflation pressure，QE3 launch will not lead to domestic monetary policy tightening，Overall for China's current macroeconomic regulation and control of the effectiveness。And in terms of the real estate market，QE3 external environment, such as the stimulation of change，Than domestic monetary policy active relaxation effect is small。

　　因此，QE3带来的外部需求的改善将有利于中国宏观政策在稳增长和控房价之间的平衡，总体上对中国利大于弊。

therefore，QE3 brings the improvement of external demand will benefit China's macro policy in steady growth and control the balance between house prices，On the whole more good than harm to China。