4%涨幅笑傲同期沪指下跌16% 4% increase over the same period fell 16%, boomed proud smile

　　受谨慎情绪影响，沪指周四早盘低开，尽管盘中在电子和计算机板块带动下一度上破2070点并翻红，无奈石油、钢铁、金融等权重板块集体下挫拖累股指，沪指盘中创出2051.77点的阶段新低，深成指亦再创新低。上证综指收报2053.24点，跌0.96%；深圳成指收报8270.91点，下跌1.54%。两市共成交924.9亿元，与前一交易日基本持平。

Be cautious mood influence，Earlier on Thursday, boomed in a lower price，Although plate in the electronic and computer plate once driven by the break 2070 points and turn red，Helpless oil、Iron and steel、Finance and other weight plate collective stock index fell drag，Boomed in plate making 2051.77 points stage low，Shenzhen composition index also hit a new low。The Shanghai composite index at 2053.24 points，Fell 0.96%；Shenzhen ChengZhi at 8270.91 points，Fell 1.54%。Two city clinch a deal total 92.49 billion yuan，And the previous trading day flat。

　　从盘面上看，今年5月3日创出2453.73点以来，沪指累计跌去400点，不过，创业板指数区间涨幅接近4%。如何看待主板与创业板未来的分化趋势？市场缺乏信心的背后究竟是何原因？

Look from the disk，In may this year 3, since making 2453.73 points，Boomed accumulated fell to 400 points，but，Gem index interval or close to 4%。How to treat the main board and gem future differentiation trend？Market lacks confidence back exactly why？

短期反弹要求增加 Increase short-term rebound requirement

　　《大众证券报》：沪深两市创阶段性新低，成交量与上一交易日持平的同时，低换手率成为常态，如何看待目前的市场趋势，究竟是进入恐慌性的杀跌，还是钝刀割肉阶段？后期走势如何？2050点成为市场关注的焦点，这一点位有何意义，短期操作上要注意些什么？

《Public stock certificate report》：Shanghai and shenzhen two city and low stage，Volume and a flat trading day at the same time，DiHuan hand rate become normal，How to look at the current market trend，What is the panic into winners，Or a blunt knife to cut meat stage？Later how trend？2050 point become the focus of attention of the market，A: what's the significance of this point，Short-term operation should pay attention to some what？

　　国金证券(600109,股吧)财富管理中心分析师/陶英杰：从周三的盘面看，尚没有出现恐慌性杀跌的态势，量能持续低迷，多空双方仍均保持谨慎。应该说，疲沓的市场环境下，造成所谓的“钝刀割肉”。周三，一方面是前期强势股遭遇补跌，另一方面传统行业，尤以资源类个股跌幅较重，部分个股在经历了下跌中继期间的反弹后继续选择向下。在趋势上，大盘8月份收阴的概率较大，不排除击穿2000点的可能，但预计击穿后会有一个周线级别的反弹。

Countries gold securities(600109,guba)Wealth management center analyst/TaoYingJie：From Wednesday's disk to see，Still there is no panic kill cheapen the situation，Volume can continue to slump，The two sides are still more empty all remain cautious。Should say，PiDa market environment，Cause the so-called“Blunt knife to cut meat”。On Wednesday，On the one hand is the strong strands of experience for fall，On the other hand, traditional industry，Especially in the resource class stocks fall heavier，Part of the stocks after falling relay during the bounce continue to choose downward。In the trend，Grail August the probability of the Yin larger，Does not exclude the possibility of breakdown 2000 points，But after the breakdown is expected to have a weekly levels of the rebound。

　　2050点、2030点对于市场弱势环境而言意义不大，人们愈加关注2000点的支撑，如果月内击穿2000点，那么大盘本周会出现4%左右的跌幅，这一幅度的出现，也很可能预示着市场反弹要求的增加。观察去年年底行情，12月中旬周线亦有3.9%左右的跌幅，市场随着展开一轮较大级别的反弹。因此，目前投资者在操作上仍需多看少动，待方向明朗后，可以激进的选择超跌绩优股，短期应注意规避阶段涨幅较大、缺乏基本面支撑的个股。

2050 point、2030 points for market weakness in environment significance is not big，People more pay attention to the support of 2000 points，If month breakdown 2000 points，So the market this week there will be 4% decline，The emergence of this range，Also probably indicates the market rebound requirements of the increase。To observe the end of last year quotation，By the middle of December weeks line also have 3.9% decline，Market with large open round the bounce of the level。therefore，Now investors in the operation still need to see less dynamic，Stay direction after clear，Can the radical choice ultra fall blue chips，Short-term should pay attention to avoid stage or larger、Lack of fundamental support stocks。

　　湘财证券策略分析师/徐广福：目前行情相当低迷，前日小幅反弹后昨日再创新低，一些前期的强势板块如酒类、稀土永磁等均出现较明显回调，量能和换手率都显示市场的交投情绪低落，萦绕着悲观的氛围。前期市场对政策放松的预期较高，但却一再落空，这使得投资情绪受到打击，有效交易的账户占比不断缩小，投资者普遍处于观望状态，场外资金迟迟不愿进入。

XiangCai securities strategy analyst/XuGuangFu：At present prices is quite low，The day before yesterday after a rebound yesterday reached a new，Some of the early strong plate such as alcohol、Rare earth permanent magnet are obviously appear callback，Quantity can and turnover rate are displayed market trading in low spirits，Haunt pessimistic atmosphere。The market for policy relaxation higher expected，But failed again and again，This makes the investment emotional hit，Effective trading account than of shrinking，Investors generally in a state of wait-and-see，Otc funds hold one may enter。

　　不过市场运行至现在，投资者也不宜过分看空，大规模恐慌性杀跌的可能性已经不是很大。从5月的高点下跌至今，沪指已经整整跌去400点，而时间上也已经跌了近4个月，具备了一定的反弹空间和时间。预计股指近期存在一定的反弹概率，但幅度和力度可能不会很大，长期来看弱势运行的大趋势还是难以改变。从历史经验看，整数关口对股指的支撑力度不一定很强，不过目前2050点破与不破的意义已经不大，倒是2000点的支撑力度可能较强。短期内对市场还是持谨慎乐观的态度，投资者短期操作则还是要着力于把握结构性机会。

But market operation to now，Investors are also shoulds not be too see empty，Mass panic kill cheapen the possibility is not big。From may high fall so far，Have boomed in whole fell to 400 points，But time has also fell nearly four months，Have a certain amount of rebound space and time。There are some recent stock index is expected to rebound probability，But the scale and strength may not be large，In the long term the weak operation of the big trend is still hard to change。From the historical experience to look at，Integer gates to support the stock index not very strong，But at present 2050 unravel and not broken significance has not，It is 2000 point support strength may be strong。In the short term the market or cautiously optimistic，Investors short-term operation is still want to grasp the opportunity to focus on structural。

　创业板或将浪淘沙 Gem or will LangTaoSha

　　《大众证券报》：从盘面上看，创业板周三继续走强，事实上，8月份以来，板块间的分化愈加明显，如何看待这一特征，未来的投资机会在哪?

《Public stock certificate report》：Look from the disk，Gem on Wednesday was still going strong，In fact，Since August，The differentiation between plate to become apparent，How to treat this feature，The future investment opportunities?

　　陶英杰：8月份以来创业走势较强，整体看是出于超跌反弹的要求。8月份之前，创业板风险释放剧烈，因此，在大盘走弱、量能有限的背景下，资金选择小盘股进行炒作。从炒作方向看，一是股价不断创新高的强势股，二是有一定概念且业绩有支撑的个股，三是超跌股。

TaoYingJie：Since August business strong trend，The overall look is of super fell rebound requirements。Before August，Gem risk release violent，therefore，In the grail go weak、Under the background of limited quantity can，Choose the small dish stock funds to hype。From the hype directions，One is the share price constant innovation high strong strands，The second is a certain concept and performance beamed stocks，The third is super fell shares。

　　从未来看，创业板肯定要经历大浪淘沙的过程，走势的反反复复将成为常态，但是只有业绩支撑的个股才能不断走强，这也是部分个股股价由底部翻番后难以进一步扩大涨幅空间的原因。预计主板与创业板走势的分化还将继续，投资创业板仍需注重创新概念加业绩支撑。而基于经济转型，市场关注的热点包括新能源里的页岩气、创新的3D打印机概念等。

Never to see，Gem sure to experience the process of ebb tide，Movements repeatedly will become normal，But only performance support to the strengthening of individual stocks，This is also part of the stocks by double bottom after share price rise to further expand the cause of the space。Main board and gem is expected to differentiation of trend to continue，Investment gem still need to pay attention to the innovation concept and performance support。And based on the economic transformation，The focus of market attention including new energy of shale gas、Creative 3 d printers concepts, etc。

　　徐广福：近期板块之间的分化现象确实十分明显，权重股低迷，创业板等小盘股却比较活跃。这与市场中存量资金的腾挪特征有关。虽然交投情绪低迷，但仍有部分获得绝对收益的资金要参与市场，必然需要寻找投资标的。目前表现活跃的多为新兴产业，而传统行业表现低迷，这一方面与未来经济结构调整的前景有关，很多传统行业如钢铁、水泥等的成长性堪忧；另一方面也是因为弱市中存量资金愿意寻找市场的一致趋向，在较具确定性的标的上抱团，以致不断推高其股价。

XuGuangFu：Recent plate between the differentiation phenomenon do obviously，Weight stock downturn，Gem and the small dish stock is active。This and the market stock funds transfer to other use characteristic about。Although trading emotional downturn，But there is still a section for absolute income funds to participate in market，Will need to find investment target。At present more active for emerging industry，While the traditional industry downturn performance，On the one hand and the future of the economic structure adjustment, the prospect，Many traditional industries such as steel、Cement is the growth；On the other hand also because of weak city of stock fund willing to seek market consistent trend，In a relatively with deterministic mark BaoTuan on，So that constantly push up the price of the stock。

　　目前市场没什么赚钱效应，所以资金参与大盘股的愿望很低。不过短期的结构性分化愈演愈烈也可能隐含了一些风险，毕竟一些新兴产业目前尚属概念阶段，短期内业绩确定性不强，资金的不断推高可能带来价值高估。短期来看板块的结构性分化仍将持续，但10月以后创业板将面临较大的解禁压力，中期可能存在回调风险，所以投资者也需谨慎，勿要盲目追高，而是精选增长确定、估值相对合理的标的。

The present market nothing make money effect，So funds to participate in the bulk lots stock desire is very low。But short-term structural differentiation intensified may also implied some risk，After all, some emerging industry is still belong to conceptual phase，The short-term uncertainty performance is not strong，Capital continuously push up may bring value overvalued。The short term plate structural differentiation will continue，But after October gem will be confronted with the pressure，There may exist in the middle of the callback risk，So investors also need to care，Don't blindly chasing the high，But select growth sure、Valuations are relatively reasonable mark。

供需失衡是最大问题 Unbalance of supply and demand is the biggest problem

　　《大众证券报》：宝钢股份(600019,股吧)周三下跌，回购利好成了“一日游”。目前两市对利好麻木，市场究竟需要怎样的利好支撑？

《Public stock certificate report》：Baosteel shares(600019,guba)Falling on Wednesday，Buyback bullish became“One-day tour of”。At present two cities to good numb，The market what needs to be done to support good？

　　陶英杰：宝钢的回购案对市场的刺激有限，一方面作为钢铁股，本身并不被市场看好；另一方面，其他同类公司没有积极响应，比如武钢并不注重股价而是养猪、卖快餐等。从市场预期看，还是希望石油石化、银行业能够出现回购，一方面世界500强企业中的石油公司比重较大，所以即使在经济转型期之后，石油石化仍会保持一定的规模；另一方面，目前银行估值比较低，而分红又比存款利率高，市场希望汇金可以出手，这些也反映出市场期待更加权重而有影响力的公司进行回购。

TaoYingJie：Baosteel buybacks case for market stimulation limited，On the one hand as iron and steel shares，Itself is not is valued by the market；On the other hand，Other similar companies no positive response，Such as wisco don't pay close attention to share price but pigs、Sells fast food, etc。See from market expectations，Still hope petroleum and petrochemical、Banking can appear repurchase，On the one hand the world 500 strong enterprises in the petroleum company greater proportion，So even in the economic transition period after，Petroleum and petrochemical will still maintain a certain scale；On the other hand，Currently, the bank valuations are relatively low，And bonus and than deposit rates high，Market hope huijin can make moves，These also reflects the market looking forward to more weight and influential company repurchase。

　　货币政策方面，央行不断进行逆回购，导致市场普遍认为降准的预期下降，此外，在经济增速放缓的背景下，食品价格还会在8月份反弹，通胀的压力没有改观。从目前中国经济的走向看，真正缺乏的可能不是资金，而是结构性调整的要求，所以传统意义上刺激经济的做法可能难以奏效，真正需要的是减税，以及更坚决的淘汰机制等。

Monetary policy，The central bank has reverse repurchase，Causes the market is generally believed that drop quasi is expected to decline，In addition，In the economic slowdown in the background，Food prices will rebound in August，Inflationary pressure no change。From China's current economic to see，Lack of funds may not be true，But the requirements of structural adjustment，So the traditional way of stimulating the economy may not work，Really need is the tax cuts，And more determined selection mechanism, etc。

　　徐广福：宝钢股份回购的消息究竟能带来多大的影响，还是要看其后期的执行力度，究竟能拿出多少资金来增持。此外，还要观察是否有其他公司跟进回购。总的来说，目前市场对政策比较麻木，主要源于市场本身的低迷。不过从历史经验看，股市层面的政策如汇金增持、降低交易税费等很多都只是短期扰动因素，改变不了市场的大趋势。目前市场最大的问题是内部结构失衡，供给远大于需求，所以除非平衡供求关系的政策出台，否则恐怕刺激效果有限。此外，从中报来看上市公司业绩很不乐观，经济基本面也是压制市场的重要因素。 记者 李喆 实习记者 祝乃嘉

XuGuangFu：Baosteel shares buy-back news actually can bring much impact，Still want to see its later enforcement，What can take out how much money to increasing。In addition，And see if there is any other company follow up the buyback。In general，The present market of the policy is numb，Mainly comes from the market itself of the downturn。But from the historical experience to look at，The stock market levels of policies such as huijin increasing、Reduce transaction taxes and fees, etc many are only short-term disturbance factors，Can not change the market trend。The present market the biggest problem is the internal structure unbalance，Supply far outweigh the demand，So unless balance supply and demand relations the policies，Otherwise I'm afraid effect of stimulation limited。In addition，See from the center daily news listed companies performance is not optimistic，Economic fundamentals is also pressing market the important factors。 Reporter 李喆 internship reporter ZhuNaiJia