从4万亿到13万亿，地方政府的雄心壮志正以咆哮之势待发，欲以投资之力扭转当地经济节节滑落态势。日前，9个沿海省市已明确海洋经济远期规划，2015年产值总额将高达70472亿元。至此，以宁波打响第一枪的地方投资狂潮总额已超过13万亿元。本轮地方投资实际操作性有多强？只不过是增加了经济虚火而已。

From 4 trillion to 13 trillion，The local government ambition is to roar of the potential momentum，With the power of the investment to reverse the local economy successively slide situation。a，Nine coastal provinces and cities has clearly Marine economy forward planning，The total annual output 2015 will be as high as 7.0472 trillion yuan。So far，To ningbo began the first gun place investment total panic has more than 13 trillion yuan。This place investment operational how strong？Just increase the economy's production of body fluid。

　　虚火下的地方投资预期 The production of body fluid of the local investment expected

　　中国GDP从2010年一季度最高峰的12.1%持续下滑到今年二季度的7.8%，最新经济(310358,基金吧)数据表明经济依旧跌势难止，全国规模以上工业企业利润连续6个月下跌，且降幅逐渐扩大，7月当月实现利润3668亿元，同比下降5.4%，降幅为年内最大。经济下滑主要受到了楼市调控的拖累，房地产开发投资增速从去年的35%持续下滑到目前的15.4%。而观察出口和消费，7月份中国进出口双双极度低迷，出口仅增长1%，而社会消费品零售总额呈现下跌扩大态势，在此背景下，投资再度成为挽救地方财政收入的“法宝”。

China's GDP in the first quarter of 2010 from the peak of 12.1% continue to decline to 7.8% in the second quarter of this year，The latest economic(310358,Fund it)Data show that economic still fall difficult to stop，The national industrial enterprises above designated size profit continuous 6 months down，And gradually expand the drop，The month of July to realize profit is 366.8 billion yuan，5.4% year-on-year drop，The biggest drop for years。The main economic downturn by the property market regulation and control of drag，Investment in real estate development from last year's 35% growth continued to slide to the current 15.4%。To observe the export and consumption，In July China import and export both extreme downturn，Exports rose by only 1%，The social total retail sales of consumer goods falling on expanding situation，In this context，Investment has once again become save of local fiscal revenue“Magic weapon”。

　　本轮地方政府主导的投资项目多在于重复过去的产业，这将加剧国民经济结构的失衡。“此时并不合适大量投资，除非投资主体要么产生新的产能，要么一些城市确实存在投资的需求。”农信银资金清算中心李伟杰对《红周刊(博客,微博)》表示。据统计，在本轮地方投资中全国31个省区市中，有28个将物联网作为新兴产业重点发展；规模以上的LED投资项目，去年猛增近80%；现有光伏企业205家中超过一半成立于2010年9月以后，在欧洲“双反”下33%的中小光伏企业处于停产或半停产状态，“4万亿投资遗留下的问题还没有完全消化。如果再推出几万亿投资，那么将进一步透支未来几年的投资需求，出现经济的恶性循环。”杨正午委员29日在全国人大常委会会议中表示。

This local government leading investment projects is more repeat the past industry，This will aggravate the national economic structure imbalance。“At this time a large number of investment is not appropriate，Unless the investment main body or create new capacity，Or some cities do exist investment demand。”Its silver fund settlement center of LiWeiJie《Red weekly(blog,Micro bo)》said。According to the statistics，In the current round of local investment in these 31，28 will things networking as emerging industry key development；Scale above LED investment projects，Explosion nearly 80% last year；The existing photovoltaic enterprise 205 home more than half was established in September 2010 later，In Europe“Double reverse”The 33% of the small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprise in production or BanTingChan state，“4 trillion investment problems left over by is still not fully digest。If it out trillions of investment，So will further overdraft future years of investment demand，Appear economic vicious cycle。”YangZhengWu committee 29 in the National People's Congress standing committee said in the meeting。

　　难逃产能重复的宿命 Not escape capacity repeat fate

　　据记者了解，2009年推出的4万亿经济刺激计划已经造成了20多个行业的产能过剩，尤为是钢铁、水泥、多晶硅、平板玻璃、风电设备、煤化工。大量的产能过剩导致上市公司尤其是周期性行业上半年利润大幅减少，去库存压力正成为多数上市公司面临的共同阴影。专家认为，仅光伏行业后期去库存化压力或将持续1~2年。

According to reporter understanding，Introduced in 2009 of the 4 trillion economic stimulus plan has caused the more than 20 industry overcapacity，Particularly is a steel、cement、polysilicon、Flat glass、Wind power equipment、Coal chemical industry。A lot of excess capacity lead to the listed company especially cyclical industry profits in the first half is greatly reduced，To inventory pressure is becoming a most listed companies face a common shadow。Experts say，Photovoltaic industry only later to inventory turn pressure or will continue to 1 ~ 2 years。

　　企业去库存远未结束，而本轮由地方政府主导的投资狂潮再度来袭。但是不断加码的投资带动上下游行业盲目扩张，造成经济“虚”胖。从各省市出台的政策来看，主要集中在基础实施投资、产业投资、旅游投资、海洋投资等。“这些投资项目多数难以形成新的投资产能，比如基建、产业、旅游投资等，从某种意义说是带有维稳意义的投资，现在还主要是消化企业的库存和企业产能过剩的过程。”李伟杰表示，如果投资不能产生正现金流，那么，此轮投资不仅对地方政府的未来财政收入造成压力，而且也透支了未来的需求。

Enterprise to inventory is far from over，But epicycle by local government leading investment panic hit again。But constantly pyramid investment drive and downstream industries blind expansion，Cause economic“virtual”fat。From all provinces and cities on the introduction of the policy to see，Mainly concentrated in the basic implementation of investment、Industrial investment、Tourism investment、Marine investment, etc。“These investment projects most difficult to form a new investment capacity，Such as infrastructure、industry、Tourism investment, etc，In a sense, with the dimensional stability of the significance of investment，Now is mainly digestion enterprise inventory and enterprise surplus production process。”LiWeiJie said，If investment cannot generate positive cash flow，so，This round of investment not only to the future of the local government financial income cause pressure，But also overdrawn the needs of the future。

　　可操作性有多强？ How strong operability？

　　地方政府的投资虚火及产能重复隐忧让本轮巨大投资的意义大打折扣，其实际操作到底有多强？从资金来源来看，迄今为止，中央部委并未表态鼓励地方启动大规模建设，中央财政对于地方财政的支持也是无从谈起。眼下，地方政府背负着超过10万亿的地方融资平台债务，而中报频频传出不良贷款率上升使银行即便有心放贷也余力不足，能否再次支持此轮投资大潮是个疑问。地方再度举债只能不断推高债务致使无解，伴随着地方政府财政收入大幅下滑，北京、上海、浙江和广东，上半年财政收入增幅均从去年同期的20%~30%，下降到10%以内。地方于是再次把手伸向了“卖地”来圈钱，最近河南省开封千亿打造汴京媒体调查报道更是证实地方政府卖地求生的套路。实际上，由于中央调控，土地财政的价值循环早已中止。

The local government investment and production of body fluid productivity repeat malaises let this huge investment significance to sell at a discount greatly，Its actual operation exactly have much stronger？From the source of fund to see，So far，The central ministries and commissions did not comment encourage local start large-scale construction，The central government to the local financial support is also mentioned。the，The local government carried more than 10 trillion local debt financing platform，And frequent center daily news spread bad loans rising bank even cored lending also lack of spare capacity，Can again support this round of investment spring is a question。Local debt again only constantly push the high debt without solution，Accompanied by local government financial income fell sharply，Beijing、Shanghai、Zhejiang and guangdong，Fiscal revenue growth in the first half from the same period last year were 20% ~ 30%，Down to less than 10%。Local and reach out to the again“Of sale”To ring money，Henan kaifeng recently yuan tomb sweeping festival media make survey report is confirmed that the local government of the survival of sale routines。In fact，Due to the central control，Land financial value cycle had to suspend。

　　看来，本轮地方投资短期并不具备可操作性。中央财经大学的郭田勇建议地方政府量力而行，希望各大银行从控制风险的角度上去考虑，避免因为卷入新一轮投资狂潮带来的风险。

It seems，This place investment short-term don't have operability。Central university of finance and economics TianYong guo Suggestions follow the local government，Hope each big bank from the Angle of risk control up to consider，Avoid because involved in a new round of investment risk of panic。