中国外汇2012年第16期 China's foreign exchange 2012 16th period

　　跨国公司的新定位 Multinational company's new location

　　专访毕马威中国税务主管合伙人何坤明 Interviews with KPMG China competent partner HeKunMing

　　文/《中国外汇》记者 刘丽娟

Text /[China's foreign exchange]Reporter LiuLiJuan

　　过去的30年里，跨国公司在中国经济中书写了浓墨重彩的一笔，中国“世界工厂”的名片与跨国公司休戚相关。随着“廉价中国”时代的终结，跨国公司在中国市场面临哪些挑战，如何寻找新的增长点？为了更好地了解跨国公司与中国市场的关系的演化，毕马威中国深入到十几家跨国公司中国区高级管理人员中进行调研，最近发布了其调研报告《跨国公司——未来的“中国之路”》。带着对同样问题的思考，《中国外汇》采访了毕马威中国税务主管合伙人何坤明。

Over the past 30 years,Multinational companies in China's economy in the writing absorbing,China"The workshop of the world"Business card and transnational company joys and sorrows is relevant.with"Cheap Chinese"The ending of the era of,Multinational corporation in the Chinese market which challenge facing,How to look for a new growth point?In order to better understand the multinational company and the Chinese market the evolution of the relationship,KPMG China into the dozen of multinational companies in China senior management personnel carries on the investigation and study,Recently released its research report[Multinational company, the future"China road"].With the same problem thinking,[China's foreign exchange]Interviews with KPMG China competent partner HeKunMing.

　　C=《中国外汇》 H=何坤明

C =[China's foreign exchange] H = HeKunMing

　　C：毕马威中国发布的报告凝聚了十几家跨国公司高管对中国市场的分析，涉及不同的行业，规模有大有小。综合来讲，您对跨国公司在华投资的总体情况如何判断？

C:KPMG China report a dozen condensed the multinational company executives to the Chinese market analysis,Involved in different industries,Scale is big is small.Comprehensive speaking,You for multinational companies to invest in China's overall situation how to judge?

　　H：我们得出的基本结论是，全球跨国公司对中国的经济前景持乐观态度，今后几年们仍将会不断加大对中国的投资。很多跨国公司都看到了中国具有的巨大竞争优势：仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体、消费市场的潜力巨大、新兴的中产阶级正在崛起。从长远看，跨国公司以中国市场为目标，在中国全面建立和发展业务，无限的商机。跨国公司之所以仍对中国表现出浓厚的兴趣，市场规模大是重要原因，变革的速度也是关键因素，新兴市场几乎崛起于一夜之间。

h:We came to the basic conclusion is,The global multinational company for China's economic prospects are optimistic,In the next few years are still will continue to increase its investment in China.Many multinational companies saw China has a huge competitive advantage:After the United States the world's second largest economy/Consumer market potential is tremendous/Emerging middle class is rising.In the long run,Multinational companies in the Chinese market as the goal,In China the establishment and development of business,Unlimited business opportunities.Multinational companies in China are still expressed a keen interest,The market scale is an important reason,The speed of change is the key factor,Emerging market rise in almost overnight.

　　过去20年里，中国和跨国公司都从大幅增长的全球贸易和投资中获益：据联合国贸易和发展会议《2011年世界投资报告》的数据，中国在全球经济中所占的份额从1990年的4% 上升到如今的14% ，而跨国公司的总份额则达到了惊人的25% ，其国外分支机构的销售额更是增加到32万亿美元。然而，大家也一致认为，未来5年将比过去10年更加艰难。

In the past twenty years,China and multinational companies from the sharp increase of global trade and investment benefit:According to the United Nations conference on trade and development[The 2011 world investment report]data,China in the global economy in a proportion, up from 4% in 1990 to 14% today ,And multinational company is always share to an astonishing 25% ,Its overseas branch sales is increased to 32 trillion dollars.however,You also agree that,The next five years will be more difficult than the past 10 years.

　　在全球金融危机的背景下，中国和跨国公司之间的关系出现一些调整。一方面，中国正在全面反思其对外商的开放政策，如是否要引入新的许可制度或技术转让新条例；另一方面，一些跨国公司也不再将中国视为它们唯一的增长来源地，它们开始将目光投向中国以外的其他新兴经济体，尽管其规模较小，但却显现出同样旺盛的经济活力。一些跨国公司也在担忧它们对中国的依赖程度。因此，“中国 +1 (往往更多)” 战略或 “邻近采购”成为跨国公司普遍谈论的话题，即跨国公司正在寻求更接近本国市场、交货周期更短的制造地以降低成本。例如，北非备受青睐，因为它邻近欧洲、拥有低廉的劳动力，且大多数国家与欧洲都签订了自由贸易协定。

In the global financial crisis under the background,China and the relationship between multinational companies appear some adjustment.On the one hand,China is comprehensive reflection on its foreign policies of opening to the outside world,Such as whether to introduce new licensing system or technology transfer new regulations;On the other hand,Some multinational companies also no longer will China as their only source of growth,They start to turn their attention to other emerging economies outside China,Despite its small size,But show the same strong economic vitality.Some multinational companies also worrying about their dependence on to China.therefore,"China + 1 (Often more)" Strategy or "Adjacent purchasing"Become multinational companies generally talking about the topic,Namely multinational company is seeking closer to domestic market/Delivery cycle shorter manufactured to reduce costs.For example,North Africa widely paid attention to,Because it is adjacent to Europe/With cheap labor,And most of the countries and Europe are signed free trade agreement.

　　C：中国这个全球第二大经济体继续吸引着全球顶尖的跨国公司落户，留下在中国市场拓展的足迹。然而，中国市场的竞争也愈益激烈。为适应这种变化，跨国公司在中国的投资有哪些新的趋势与变化？

C:China, the world's second largest economy continue to attract the world's leading multinational corporations located,Stay in China market development footprint.however,The Chinese market competition has become increasingly fierce.In order to adapt to this change,Multinational companies in China's investment what new trends and changes?

　　H：与10年前不同的是，现如今跨国公司在加速扩张步伐，而不是简单的进入市场。跨国公司在中国的投资范围、投资模式趋于更加复杂。

h:Different from 10 years ago is,Nowadays multinational company in accelerating expansion pace,Rather than simply to enter the market.Multinational companies in China's investment scope/Investment mode tend to be more complex.

　　首先，跨国公司的投资将向价值链的高端延伸。此前，投资主要集中在加工制造领域，中国因此也成为跨国公司的“世界工厂”。但是现在，不少跨国公司将研发中心、人力资源中心等提供共享服务的部门搬到了中国。中国商务部有望明年出台一个行业规划，包括面对世界其他主要共享服务中心，如印度和菲律宾，中国将如何自我定位。这将有可能吸引跨国公司将更多的后台业务迁往中国。

First of all,Multinational investment value chain to high-end extensions.after,Investment mainly concentrated in the manufacturing field,China therefore also become multinational company"The workshop of the world".But now,Many multinational company will research and development center/Human resource center, such as the provision of Shared services department moved to China.China's commerce ministry next year is expected to be issued an industry planning,Face the world including other major Shared service center,Such as India and the Philippines,China will how to self positioning.This will probably attract the multinational company will be more background business moved to China.

　　其次，跨国公司在中国市场的开拓向三四线城市转移。跨国公司开始把中国一个省份的重要性提高到与新兴经济体相同的高度。毕竟，中国的内陆省份在国内生产总值或人口基数上，与撒哈拉以南非洲、中东或拉丁美洲等其他新兴地区相当。所以，在外国人眼里，我们所谓的三四线城市可能相当于一些规模较小的欧洲国家。

secondly,Multinational corporation in the Chinese market to develop three or four line city transfer.Multinational companies began to make China a province of the increasing importance of the emerging economies of the same height.After all,China's inland provinces in the gross domestic product or the population base,And sub-saharan Africa/The Middle East and Latin America and other emerging areas quite.so,In the eyes of foreigners,What we call a three or four line cities may be equivalent to some smaller European countries.

　　再次，跨国公司和中国公司均再次表示出对建立合资公司的巨大愿望。这也是我们在报告中特别强调的一个正面的发展趋势。一方面，跨国公司希望在本土企业的帮助下进入中国内地市场和三四线城市；另一方面，中国企业也希望寻求帮助进行海外扩张，这就是“合久必分，分久必合”的经济局势。从跨国公司的角度来看，与地方企业合作比收购或有机增长更有助于拓展市场；从本土企业的角度来看，合资企业不仅是现金池，更是其获得战略优势的源泉。由合资到独资再到合资的变化趋势，体现的是跨国公司投资从最初的政策主导到现在市场主导的变化趋势。

again,Multinational companies and Chinese companies are once again expressed to the establishment of the joint venture company great desire.This is also our report with particular emphasis on the development of a positive trend.On the one hand,Multinational companies hope that in the help of the local enterprises in mainland China market and three or four line city;On the other hand,Chinese enterprises also hope to seek help to expand overseas,This is"Together long will points,FenJiuBiGe"Economic situation.From the point of view of multinational companies,And local enterprise cooperation than acquisitions or organic growth more help to develop the market;From the point of view of local enterprises,Joint venture is not only cash pool,But also for the source of the strategic advantage.By the joint venture to sole proprietorship to the change tendency of the joint venture,Reflect is a multinational company investment from the initial policy leading to the present market leading change trend.

　　最后，跨国公司也将参与国内的整合与并购。小型跨国公司受实力所限，无法承受开拓新兴市场的前期成本，只能固守沿海城市的已有市场，或难以为继。咨询行业初露端倪，员工只有30人至50人的小公司举步维艰，它们迫于压力已经开始处置资产或退出中国。

finally,Multinational companies also will participate in domestic and the integration of m&a.Small multinational companies limited by strength,Cannot afford the cost of development emerging markets,Can only keep to the coastal city of existing market,Or difficult.Consulting industry arises,Employees only 30 to 50 people struggling small company,They are under pressure has begun to disposal of assets or withdraw from the Chinese.

　　C：跨国公司在华的投资策略虽然已是市场主导，但政策调整的指导作用还是非常明显。在目前中国经济增长出现放缓趋势的背景下，哪些公司在加大对华投资，哪些公司在逐渐退出中国？在政府的政策指引下，跨国公司如何结合自身情况，寻找自己的发展机会？

C:Multinational companies in China investment strategy though it is already the dominance of the market,But policy adjustment guidance is very obvious.In China's current economic slowdown under the background of the trend,Which companies to increase the investment in China,Which companies in gradually withdraw from the Chinese?In the government's policy guidance,Multinational companies how to combine oneself circumstance,Find your own development opportunities?

　　H：从政府的“十二五”规划可以看到，中国政府对外商投资更加注重质量，而不是此前的数量，具有明显的政策导向性。现在，政府比较鼓励高科技、服务业的发展，跨国公司投资开始从制造业逐渐向服务业等第三产业转移。这是跨国公司对政府规划的回应，也恰恰与中国“走向价值链上端”的方针相吻合。而一些传统的低成本、技术含量比较低的加工行业在投资力度方面会减小，跨国公司会把技术含量比较低的加工工序从中国转移到其他国家或地区，比如越南或一些东欧国家。

h:From the government's"1025"Planning can see,The Chinese government pay more attention to the quality of foreign investment,Rather than previous quantity,Has the obvious policy orientation.now,The government is encouraging high-tech/The development of service industry,The multinational corporation's investment began to gradually from manufacturing to service industry and the third industry transfer.This is a multinational company for the government planning response,Is also precisely and China"The value chain to the top"The consistent policy.And some traditional low cost/Technology content is low processing industry in the investment will decrease,Multinational company will take technology content is low processing process from China transferred to other countries or regions,Such as Vietnam or some eastern European countries.

　　到目前为止，跨国公司在服务业的投资大多局限于物流和金融行业。如果中国放开更多服务类行业，允许外资参与，跨国公司必将积极响应。我们也看到，新一代企业高管精英正活跃在中国市场。随着中国经济恢复平衡增长并强调本土消费，创新发展和清洁能源、高科技与服务行业等将会越来越成为市场重点关注的领域。在此次调研中，物流运输的联邦快递、马士基航运，消费领域的捷成洋行、乐购，从事专业咨询服务的仲量联行、美迈斯律师事务所，以及高科技领域的微软、甲骨文，都在加大对中国市场的关注与投资。

So far,Multinational companies in service industry investment mostly limited to logistics and financial industry.If China open more service class industry,Foreign investment is allowed to participate in,Multinational companies will give positive response.We also see,A new generation of enterprise executives elite is active in the Chinese market.With China's economic recovery balanced growth and emphasis on domestic consumption,Innovation and development and clean energy/High-tech and service industries will be more and more become the market focus on field.In this survey,Logistics transportation federal express/Maersk shipping,The consumption field into a foreign firm/tesco,Is engaged in the professional consulting services of Jones lang lasalle/Beauty Wallace, the law firm,And high-tech areas of Microsoft/Inscriptions on oracle bones,All while increasing investment in the Chinese market attention and investment.

　　中国政府鼓励在三个关键领域做出重大投资——共享服务与外包、支付和云计算。“十二五”规划同样鼓励此类创新，以促进中国虚拟化技术的发展。这为跨国公司带来了巨大商机，尤其是那些瞄准不断增长和高度复杂的中国高科(600730,股吧)技消费市场的企业。中国政府已确定在北京、上海、深圳、杭州、无锡5个城市先行开展云计算服务创新发展试点，将惠及众多消费者及跨国公司。一些大型跨国公司，如微软和惠普，正在中国建立世界级的云计算中心。

The Chinese government encourages in three key areas to make a big investment - Shared services and outsourcing/Payment and cloud computing."1025"Planning also encourage such innovation,In order to promote the development of China's virtualization technology.The multinational company to bring huge business opportunities,Especially those who aim at increasing and highly complex Chinese high-tech(600730,guba)Skill consumer market of the enterprise.The Chinese government has determined in Beijing/Shanghai/shenzhen/hangzhou/Wuxi city first five in cloud computing service innovation development pilot,Will benefit many consumers and multinational companies.Some large multinational company,Such as Microsoft and hewlett-packard,China is to establish a world-class cloud computing center.

　　C：随着我国人口红利逐渐消失、原材料价格不断上涨，我国正在逐步告别“廉价时代”。在此过程中，跨国公司存在哪些机遇，其面临的主要挑战是什么？

C:Along with the population dividend gradually disappear/Material price rising,Our country is gradually farewell"Cheap age".In the process,Multinational companies exist which opportunities,Its the main challenges of is what?

　　H：许多跨国公司发现，在华的经营环境日益艰难。它们普遍有一个看法：中国已不再是一个廉价的产品制造和服务外包的国家了。调研中几乎所有受访的跨国公司都认为，在中国营商环境不断转变的情况下，劳动力短缺和工资上涨是最大的问题。消费品行业在这方面的问题尤为严峻，因为中国以往劳工成本低廉为它们提供了重要的成本优势，但随着中国人口老化，这种成本结构出现了彻底变化。少一些中国制造，多一些中国销售，将为跨国公司带来可观的经济利益。

h:Many multinational companies found,The business environment in China increasingly difficult.They generally have a view:China is no longer a cheap products manufacturing and service outsourcing of the country.Research in almost all the surveyed multinational companies all think,In the Chinese business environment to changing circumstances,Labor shortages and wage growth is the biggest problem.Consumer goods industry in this problem is particularly severe,Because of China's old labor cost is low for they provide an important cost advantage,But with China's aging population,The cost structure appeared thorough change.Less made in China,Some more Chinese sales,For multinational companies will bring considerable economic benefits.

　　随着“廉价中国”的终结，取而代之的是“消费中国”，跨国公司逐渐将中国视为消费市场，而不只是一个采购基地。中国城市收入统计数据显示，按人均年收入5000美元计算 （以美元购买力平价为基础），中国城市中产阶级人数规模为2.75亿人，以10000美元为标准，则降至只有1亿人。能向数以亿计消费者出售汽车或房屋装修商品，令不少商业机构垂涎不止。

with"Cheap Chinese"The end of the,instead"Consumption China",Multinational companies gradually will China as consumer market,And not just a procurement base.China's urban income statistics data show,According to the calculated the average per capita income of $5000 (Based on purchasing power parity in dollars),China's urban middle class number scale for 275 million people,With $10000 for the standard,It fell to only 100 million people.Be able to sell consumers billions car or house decoration commodity,Make a lot of businesses covet more than.

　　问题是，中国中产阶级的兴起也曾遇到重重障碍，以中产阶级为销售对象并非总是一帆风顺。举例来说，消费模式可能在一夜间完全改变，并产生新的市场。因此，企业需要在新的业务领域灵活投资，或迅速应对市场变化。市场突然出现变化的最大问题是，你无法从最初的统计数据分辨出成功与否。捷成洋行集团董事总经理海宁在调研中认为，应对这种多变市场的代价，就是承担过度投资的风险。并且，通胀压力持续升高和经济增长放缓都可能引致中产阶级的衰落。1997年亚洲金融危机时，就业市场和房地产市场遭遇雪崩，造成无数中产阶级家庭挣扎在贫困线以下。对于瞄准中产阶层市场的跨国公司来说，中国应对通货膨胀及促进经济增长的能力至关重要。

The problem is,The rise of the Chinese middle class have meet obstacles,To party a for the sale of the middle class object is not always smooth.For example,Consumption pattern may be totally changed overnight,And produce new market.therefore,Enterprise need in the new business areas flexible investment,To cope with the market changes or quickly.The market suddenly appeared change is the biggest problem,You can't from the statistical data distinguish successful or not.Rapid into foreign firm group managing director in haining investigation think,Deal with the changeable market price,Is to bear the risk of excessive investment.and,Inflationary pressure rising and economic slowdown may lead to the decline of the middle class.In 1997 the Asian financial crisis,The job market and real estate market encounter avalanche,Cause many middle-class families struggling to below the poverty line.To aim at the middle class market for multinational companies,China deal with inflation and promote economic growth ability is very important.

　　C：从公司经营的微观层面看，目前跨国公司在中国市场面临的挑战主要有哪些，应如何应对？

C:From the management of the micro perspectives,Current multinational corporation in the Chinese market the challenge what are the main,Should be how to deal with?

　　H：首先，跨国公司向中国三四线城市进军时，面临着地区差异带来的困扰。跨国公司很自然地会注意到，广东和河南的市场差异，就如同法国和德国市场，或者加利福尼亚州和俄亥俄州市场之间的差异。它们在中国投资发展的策略要根据投资区域的改变而有所调整，根据不同地区的实际情况量体裁衣，进行增加适应性的调整。如今，多数跨国公司在中国普遍采用多层次的经营策略，以适应沿海和内地、不同等级城市及南部珠江三角洲、中部长江三角洲和北部环渤海地区的地域特点。

h:First of all,Multinational companies to China city three or four line march,Faced with regional difference brings trouble.Multinational companies naturally will notice,Guangdong and henan market differences,As France and Germany market,Or California and Ohio the difference between the market.They invest in China development strategy according to the change of investment region may be adjusted,According to the actual situation of different regions act according to actual circumstances,To increase the adaptability adjustment.now,Most of the multinational company in China widely adopted multi-level business strategy,To adapt to the coastal and inland/Different grades in southern cities and the pearl river delta/Middle Yangtze river delta and bohai sea region in northern region characteristic.

　　此外，中国消费市场已经不再向跨国公司一边倒了，跨国公司也面临越来越强的内资企业的竞争。内资企业的竞争力在不断增强，内资企业提供的的产品、服务水平在不断提升，它们也进行自己的研发，也借鉴外国的经验来改进管理模式，已经成为跨国公司不可小觑的竞争对手。热衷于进入中国市场的跨国公司却在谈判桌上陷入前所未有的困境，除非拥有奔驰或通用汽车这样吸引力强大的品牌，否则，它们很难说服本土企业与之合作。

In addition,China's consumer market is no longer to multinational companies the lopsided,Multinational companies also face more and more strong domestic enterprise competition.The competitiveness of domestic enterprises in the constant enhancement,Domestic enterprises to provide the products/The service level is rising,They also for their own development,Also referrring foreign experience to improve management mode,Has become a transnational company cannot small gaze competitors.Keen to enter the Chinese market but multinational companies in the negotiating table into unprecedented dilemma,Unless have Benz or general motors such attractive strong brand,otherwise,It is very difficult for them to persuade local enterprises and cooperation.

　　最后，从处于价值链低端的生产制造业，转移到处于高端的现代服务业，跨国公司面临最大的挑战就是要保持本地高端人才的持续供给。在制造领域，跨国公司看重的是国内低成本的劳动力。但是，当跨国公司转向现代服务业时，对劳动力的素质要求就不断提高。尤其是现代服务业，不但有硬性专业知识的要求，在文化素养、语言能力、社交礼仪以及经验技能等方面的要求也大大提高了。当高端人才的需求量很大时，只能走本地化培养路线。

finally,From the value chain of manufacturing low production,Transfer to in high-end of the modern service industry,Multinational companies face the biggest challenge is to keep the local high-end talent of continuous supply.In the manufacturing,Multinational company value is the low cost labor.but,When multinational companies to the modern service industry,The quality requirement for labor will improve.Especially the modern service industry,There are not only hard professional knowledge requirements,In the cultural literacy/Language ability/Social etiquette skills and experience requirements are greatly improved.When the demand for high-end talent is very big,Can only go localization training route.