上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副院长朱宁教授(图左)与和讯网工作人员合影。 Shanghai jiaotong university, vice President of the college of Shanghai senior financial ZhuNing professor(Figure left)And HeXunWang staff had a group photo taken.

　　和讯网消息 9月11日-13日，2012夏季达沃斯论坛在中国天津举行，本届论坛的主题是“塑造未来经济”。

HeXunWang news on September 11, - 13,The 2012 summer davos BBS in China held in tianjin,This is the theme of the BBS"Shaping future economic".

　　9月10日，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副院长朱宁教授在论坛召开前夕，就当前中国股市的问题与现状接受和讯网前方报道团队的现场访谈。

On September 10,,Shanghai jiaotong university Shanghai senior financial, vice President of the college professor ZhuNing in BBS eve held,China's stock market is the current problems and current situation HeXunWang accept ahead of the team reported the interview.

　　朱宁认为，尽管新一届管理层上台后推进了中国资本市场改革的速度，但股市的跌跌不休更多地反应了当下国内外经济运行的现状以及投资者对未来经济运行的信心。

ZhuNing think,Although the new management appear to push forward China capital market reform speed,But stock market about stumbling more reaction the current economic operation at home and abroad present situation as well as the investors of future economic operation of the faith.

　　朱宁称，中国资本市场发展有三个改革方向，国际化、对投资者的教育和保护、资本市场规则与法律的建设。

ZhuNing says,China's capital market development has three reform direction,internationalization/The education and protection to investors/Capital market rules and legal construction.

　　针对当下转融通机制的推出，朱宁认为卖空机制的出现能够抑制股市的波动幅度，长期来看能熨平波峰波谷。对于，转融通推出后上市公司负面报道增大的现象，朱宁则表示，“我觉得和转融通的推出有一定的关系”。

According to the mechanism of refinancing launch,The emergence of ZhuNing think short selling mechanism can inhibit the stock market fluctuation range,In the long run can ironing wave trough.for,The introduction of refinancing of listed companies reported the phenomenon of negative increase,ZhuNing, said,"I think and refinancing launch has a certain relationship".

　　对于当前股市走势，朱宁认为会出现一轮有力度的反弹，但不会在短期内产生牛市。

For the current stock market trends,ZhuNing think will appear round has the strength of the rebound,But in the short term will not produce a bull market.

　　推出转融通制度与上市公司负面报道增多有关 Turn out financing system and listed companies more negative reports about

　　和讯网：和讯网友大家好！欢迎大家收看和讯高端访谈，今天我们请到的嘉宾是上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副院长朱宁教授，朱院长在金融领域有很深的研究，今天我们将和他一块儿探讨网友所关心的资本制度上面的一些问题。朱教授，转融通在一片争议当中启动了，您甚为转融通推出之后资本市场发生了哪些变化呢？

HeXunWang:HeXunWang friend everybody is good!Welcome everybody to high-end interview with dispatch,Today we please of the guest is Shanghai jiaotong university, vice President of the college of Shanghai senior financial ZhuNing professor,Zhu in the financial field of a deep research,Today we will be together to explore and his net friend care about some of the problems above capital system.Professor zhu,Turn accommodation in a dispute among the start,You are introduced to refinance after capital market? What are the changes?

　　朱宁：我觉得转融通这个金融创新政策的推出，在很大程度之上在短期之内进一步促进我们前段推出的融资融券活动，也就是卖空活动的发展。而卖空机制的推出，在整个全球范围内可能会产生两个大的影响。

ZhuNing:I think to refinance the financial innovation policy launch,To a great extent on in the short term further promote our forepart launched margin activities,Also is the development of short selling.And short selling mechanism of the launch,In the global range may produce two big effect.

　　第一，短期之内有可能导致股市产生小幅下挫。这主要是因为有了做空机制后，市场可以更多地反映负面的信息。中长期来看，做空机制的推出很大程度上可以帮助市场变成平衡市。我们的股市在前段时间经常走出大熊市或大牛市，大幅波动情况一定程度上是因为市场没有很好地反应短期负面的消息，随着整个做空机制和转融通机制的推出，市场可以更好地反应多方和空方这两方面的信息。在这种机制之下，市场无论是涨还是跌，我个人持长期乐观态度，整个市场的波动性都会比以前的时间有很大的下降。所以，从这个角度讲，我觉得可以更好地帮助市场反映信息，可以更好化解市场这种系统性的风险。

The first,In the short term can lead to produce small stock market fell.This is mainly because a short after mechanism,The market can more reflect the negative information.Long-term to see,Shorting mechanism launch a great extent can help market into balance city.Our stock market in the paragraph of time often out of the great big bull market or bear market,Fluctuations situation to a certain extent, because the market is not good reaction short-term negative news,As the whole shorting mechanism and turn accommodation mechanism of the launch,The market can better response and empty party in the two aspects of the information.In this mechanism under,The market whether to go up to still drop,Personally, I hold the long-term optimistic attitude,The entire market volatility will than before much less time.so,From this point of view,I think that could be helpful to reflect market information,Can better resolve the market this kind of systemic risk.

　　和讯网：转融通推出前后，我们看到资本市场出现了一些比较奇特的现象，比如说上市公司的一些负面报道开始加大了，而且在这些负面报道之后，上市公司短时间股价都发生了迅速下跌，您认为这种情况和转融通的出现是否相关？

HeXunWang:Refinancing before and after the launch,We see the capital market has some of the more unusual phenomenon,For example the listed company of some of the negative reports began to increased,And in these negative after reports,The listed company short time share prices plunged happened,Do you think this kind of situation and refinancing whether the advent of related?

　　朱宁：我觉得和转融通的推出有一定的关系。大家知道，做空者最有动机散发一些负面的消息，因为他们可以通过散发负面消息打压股价，通过先卖出再买入，高卖低买的方式可以赚钱。但我觉得应该值得考虑，在去年我们出现的中国概念股在纳斯达克也遭受过一些卖空者或散布消息者的狙击，从这个角度来说，卖空者很大程度上是有一定的动机散发负面的消息，对此，监管层必须制止这种捏造或专门制造负面信息的行为。

ZhuNing:I think and refinancing launch has a certain relationship.As we all know,Do those empty most motivation send out some negative news,Because they can send out through negative news flatten prices,Through the first sell to buy them,Buy low sell high way to make money.But I think that should be worth considering,In the last year we appear Chinese concept stock on nasdaq also suffered some short seller or distribute news person sniper,From this point of view,Short seller is to a great extent has certain motivation send out negative news,this,The supervisor must put an end to this fabricated or specialized manufacturing negative information behavior.

　　如果一个公司的基本面是好的，短期的下跌只会给投资者创造很好的中长期投资和建仓的机会，所以从这个角度讲股价短期下跌并不一定是坏事。

If a company fundamentals is good,Short-term decline will only give investors to create a good long-term investment and open a position opportunities,So from the point of view of short-term stock down is not necessarily a bad thing.

　　股价的下跌包括负面消息的流出和转融通的推出确实有一定的影响，但我觉得这种影响最多只可能是短期，不可能长期影响股价或左右股市。

Share prices including negative news to refinance outflow and launch does have certain effect,But I think that this kind of influence most can only be short-term,Could not long-term influence share price or about the stock market.

　　和讯网：我看网上有这样一种观点，目前网友说转融通推出之后，由于中国原来没有转融通，所以投资者只用承担下跌的风险，但是现在由于做空机制的出现，投资人还应该承担上涨的风险，那么以后投资者在股市中赚钱越来越难了，您是如何看待这种观点的？

HeXunWang:I see online have such a point of view,At present net friend say refinancing after launch,Because China was not turn accommodation,So investors only bear the risk of falling,But now due to the emergence of shorting mechanism,Investors should also bear the risk of rising,So later investors to make money in the stock market is more and more difficult,How do you look at this point of view?

　　朱宁：我不是完全同意这种观点。因为我觉得，第一，做空确实有风险，而且做空风险在个股交易上会大于整个做多的风险。做多，你的风险最多就是百分之百，投入100元，这100元你都赔光了；但你如果你做空的话，有可能做空10元/只股票，它上涨到30元，利润上来讲你损失的额度可能会超过100%，所以从这个角度来讲做空的风险确实很大。正因为做空的风险很大，所以我们要看到，在海外市场散户参与做空交易的比例是非常低的，在美国这么发达的国家，散户在整个市场里的卖空量所占的比例不超过5%。

ZhuNing:I am not fully agree with this view.Because I think,The first,Do empty do have risk,And do empty risk in trading individual stocks will be greater than the whole do more risk.Do more than,Your risk most is one hundred percent,Investment 100 yuan,The 100 yuan you lose all the light;But you if you do empty words,Are likely to make empty 10 yuan/stock,It up to 30 yuan,The profits will tell you the loss of line may be more than 100%,So from this perspective do empty risk really great.Because do empty the risk is very big,So we want to see,In overseas markets in empty retail trade proportion is very low,In the United States so developed country,Retail investors in the market in short selling quantity and the proportion of no more than 5%.

　　所以，并不是鼓励或压制散户的某种行为，更多的我觉得是给市场更好地披露市场信息的一个机制；帮助市场更好地平衡上涨和下跌的风险，原来我们基本只有下跌的风险，不怕上涨的风险，这样的话大家万众一心，都想短期把股市推得很高，我们才会出现从1000点涨到6000点，再从6000点跌到1000点的情况。有了卖空机制之后，有可能从1000点涨到3000点的时候，市场很多参与者已经不认可了，所以很大程度上避免了我们大涨大跌的极端波动性。

so,Not encourage or suppress certain behavior of retail,More I think is to the market better disclosure of the information of the market a mechanism;Help the market better balance the risk of rising and falling,For we basic only downside risk,Not afraid of rising risk,So we unite as one,All want to short-term the stock market push very high,We will appear from 1000 points to 6000 points up,Again from 6000 points to 1000 points down the situation.After a short selling mechanism,Possible from 1000 points around 3000 point,The market has not been approved by many participants,So a great extent avoid the extreme volatility of we plunged.

　　我们知道股市无论是涨还是跌，长期一定是向上的，但这里面怎么能够一定程度上熨平这么大的波动，我觉得这其实是中国资本市场逐渐成熟，投资者也逐渐能够获得一个比较可持续的，稳定的投资收益的很重要的发展方向。

We know that the stock market whether to go up to still drop,Long-term must be upward,But how can it to a certain extent, ironing so big fluctuation,I think it is China's capital market gradually mature,Investors also gradually to obtain a more sustainable,Stable investment income is very important development direction.

　　机构投资者壮大是长期趋势 散户正撤离A股 Institutional investors is long-term trend and retail are evacuated A share

　　和讯网：中国股市有股指期货，而且最近也出现了转融通，但我们所看到的报道来看，这些门槛依然非常高，我从许多证券公司了解到，对于融资融券的门槛都设定在200万元以上，这样就把很多散户排除在这个工具之外了。就您目前掌握的信息来看，是否我国资本制度改革有把散户驱逐出资本市场的迹象？因为据我所知，成熟市场上，机构投资者是市场的主体，而我们现有的中国A股主要由中小散户所构成的，目前机构投资者占的比例仍然不是特别高，是否以后会朝着向机构投资者占比大幅提高的趋势来发展呢？

HeXunWang:China's stock market has the stock index futures,And recently also appeared to refinance,But what we see report to see,These threshold is still very high,I'm from many securities companies to know,For margin threshold are set in 2 million yuan of above,This put a lot of retail excluded from this tool out.Is your current master of information to see,Whether China's capital system reform have a retail investors out of capital market signs?As far as I know,Mature market,Institutional investors is the main body of the market,And our current China's A shares is mainly composed of A small and medium-sized retail,At present the proportion of institutional investors are still not very high,Whether in will to institutional investors than increase of the trend to develop it?

　　朱宁：如果对比中国股当下与2000年左右中国基金业刚刚创立的时，其实中国整个机构投资者在中A股市场所占的比例已经大幅增加了，从这个角度来讲，中国和其他国际市场的经验是一样的，我们是在逐渐向机构投资者的影响越来越大，而散户或个人投资者逐渐退出直接投资的方向发展，我觉得这和国际趋势是一脉相承的。

ZhuNing:If contrast China shares and then around the year 2000 China funds just when founded,In fact the whole valley of China's institutional investors in the stock market in A place of proportion of has increased significantly,From this perspective,China and other international market experience is the same,We are gradually to institutional investors has more and more influence,And retail or individual investors gradually exit direct investment direction,I think it can be traced to the international trend.

　　这里面有两点我想特别强调，第一，中国的机构投资者可能从某些交易行为上，可能也比较像散户，所以他们没有很好地起到稳定市场或做长期价值投资的作用。我们不应该只看机构投资者数量的多少或机构投资者管理规模的大小，更多的应该看是否机构投资者的行为。尤其是以后如果我们有机会能够吸引养老金、险资的入市，机构投资者更应该保持自己长期的收益和现金的支出之间的平衡。

There are two points I want to especially stressed,The first,China's institutional investors may in some transaction behavior,May also more like retail,So they have no good play a stable market or do long-term value the role of investment.We should not only look at the number of institutional investors how many institutional investors or the size of the management,More should see whether the behavior of the institutional investors.Especially later if we have the opportunity to attract pension/Risks of capital market,Institutional investors more should keep their long-term earnings and cash balance between the expenditure.

　　我们整个发展趋势确实向机构投资者更进一步发展，散户主动或被动地退出市场。因为我本人和很多同事研究，在海外和中国市场，散户平均而言他们的业绩不能跑赢大市，即使大市表现不好，散户的表现有可能更差，所以我们所说的主动退离这个市场是说，散户会意识到自己的投资能力不如机构投资者或者不如其他散户，他们就自己决定不再投资股票了，比如买基金，买理财产品。

Our whole development trend to institutional investors really further development,Retail initiative or passively to withdraw from the market.Because I and many colleagues research,In overseas and Chinese market,Retail on the average their performance can't run the win,Even if the poor performance,The performance of the retail investors may have worse,So we say active recession this market is said,Retail investors will be aware of their investment ability as institutional investors or other than retail,They decided to no longer investment stock,Such as buy fund,Buy financial products.

　　第二，散户被动地退出市场。散户拿了1万元开了一个户，投资过了两年只剩3000元，被迫退出了市场。

The second,Retail passively to withdraw from the market.Retail took 10000 yuan opened a door,Investment after two years there are only 3000 yuan,Was forced to withdraw from the market.

　　不管哪个原因，长期来讲，肯定中国的资本市场会逐渐发展到机构投资者无论从管理规模还是交易规模，还是对市场定价权的影响力都会越来越大，而我觉得散户可以通过投资公募基金、投资私募产品、投资理财产品参与股市，包括以后债券市场发展，通过多元化的资本市场发展以后有更多的投资标的可供选择，而不再纠结于股市里。

No matter which causes,The long term,Certainly China's capital market will gradually development to institutional investors no matter from management scale or transaction scale,Or the market pricing influence will be more and more big,And I think that retail investors can through the investment public offering fund/Investment private products/Finance and investment products to participate in the stock market,Including later bond market development,Through the diversity of the capital market development later have more investment target selection,Not ravel in the stock market.

　　从这个角度讲，中国的股市无论是交易机制的改革，信息披露的改革都很重要，与此同时，中国A股市场里的投资者结构的改革，以后散户怎么能够不再对A股短期的波动产生这么大的影响，中国的A股市场可能就逐渐成熟了，同时更有利于整个长期的价值发现，整个的长期价值投资。

From this point of view,The Chinese stock market whether trading mechanism reform,The reform of the disclosure of information are very important,meanwhile,China A stock market investors field structure of the reform,After how can no longer retail to a-share short-term fluctuations have so much influence,China's a-share market may be gradually mature,At the same time, more conducive to the long-term value found,The long-term investment value.

　　下一阶段中国股市将有三个改革方向 The next stage of China's stock market will have three reform direction

　　和讯网：证监会新的管理层上台之后，出台了一系列政策，去解决原来市场当中所没有解决的问题，陆续出台一些制度，比如融资融券、退市制度、分红指引办法等。我们看到，资本市场依然是跌跌不休，您认为目前在资本市场有哪些应该做的事情应该做？应该怎么样进一步来改进呢？

HeXunWang:Securities regulatory commission the new management after he came into power,Has issued a series of policies,To solve the original of the market did not solve the problem,Some system comes on stage in succession,Such as margin/Delisted system/Share out bonus guide way, etc.We see,Capital market is still stumbling endlessly,Do you think in the capital market, what should do should do?How it should be further to improve?

　　朱宁：首先，我还是比较肯定郭树清主席上任之后对中国资本市场推出一系列的改革措施，无论是公开、公正、公平的信息披露，还是对投资者保护，还是《指引》强制企业来分红，来提升公司的治理结构都是比较正确的发展方向。但这里边我觉得市场里监管机制的改变和整个股市短期的走势，理论上讲没有很直接的，必然的正向相关关系。

ZhuNing:First of all,I still is sure GuoShuQing President after taking office in Chinese capital market launched a series of reform measures,Whether public/justice/Fair information disclosure,Or the investor protection,or[guidelines]Forced enterprises to share out bonus,To improve the company's governance structure are relatively correct development direction.But here side I think the market supervision mechanism of the change and the market short-term trend,In theory there is no direct,Certain positive correlation.

　　我们知道，影响股市的无外乎几个大的方向：全球的宏观经济形势，国内自己的经济环境，企业盈利以及投资者对现在即将推出的新一轮，不管叫刺激或者经济稳定政策它的信心怎么样。最近股市跌跌不休可能反映了整个全球金融体系仍然很不稳定，欧债危机进一步加剧，国内经济增速放缓，企业盈利能力下降。同时大家对于是不是能够持续过去三年，通过大规模的财政货币刺激政策继续推动经济发展，可能也开始产生不确定性。

We know that,The stock market influence outside several big direction:Global macro economic situation,Domestic own economic environment,Corporate earnings and investors to now is going to launch a new round of,No matter that stimulus or economic stability policy it confidence.The latest stockmarket stumbling endlessly may reflect the global financial system is still unstable,The debt crisis further intensifies,Domestic economic growth is slowing,Enterprise profitability decline.At the same time, everyone will be able to continue for the past three years,Through the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus policies continue to promote the development of economy,May also began to form the uncertainty.

　　所以，这里面反映了很多短期市场的情绪，同时整个经济环境的影响。

so,It reflects many short-term market sentiment,At the same time the entire economic environment influence.

　　至于说我们下一阶段市场可以有什么改革的方式，我觉得可能有三个大的方向：

As for our next stage market can have what reform of the way,I think there may be three big direction:

　　国际化。中国资本市场或中国资本项下的资本流动现在仍然在很强的监管体系下。这点就导致中国投资者不能很好地投资于海外市场，海外投资者也不能投资于中国市场，这就发现投资者在海外有更好，估值更有吸引力的投资机会，但他们不能把自己的资金调配到海外去。

internationalization.China's capital market or China's capital of capital flow is still in a strong regulatory system.This will lead to Chinese investors can be a good investment in overseas markets,Overseas investors also can't invest on the Chinese market,It is found that investors in the overseas have better,Valuations more attractive investment opportunities,But they can't take their own capital allocation to go abroad.

　　中国有很多估值虚高的企业，由于没有竞争者，所以他们也吸引了投资者很多的资金。如果我们更能开放中国的资本市场，不一定是通过国际板，可以允许中国的投资者投资海外的股指期货，可以投资海外的指数基金，多元化的投资，我觉得这可能会对于，一是分散国内过多的投资资金，二是对国内上市企业提出更强的竞争，我觉得是个很好的方向。

China has a lot of valuation virtual high enterprise,Since there is no competitors,So they also attracted investors a lot of money.If we can more open China's capital market,Is not necessarily through the international plate,Can allow investors in China investment overseas stock index futures,Can invest overseas index funds,Diversified investment,I think it might be for,One is the scattered domestic too much investment funds,The second is to domestic listed enterprise puts forward more competition,I think is a good direction.

　　对投资者教育和保护。这有两点，一是投资者教育，必须要让广大散户意识到自己的投资能力有大的局限性，自己的投资业绩确实不如市场平均水平，怎么来改正，可能通过投资基金，通过消极投资而不是自己积极地进行炒股票，可能投资者反而可以获得更好的投资业绩。我们觉得转换投资者投资行为和投资理念很重要。二是投资者现在基本上和上市公司博弈的时候总是处于弱势地位，所以怎么更好地规范上市公司的行为，无论是提升公司治理结构，还是说强制分红，还是说对于某些违法或者不完全合法行为打击力度的增强，我觉得这点都非常重要。

Education and protection to investors.There are two,One is the investor education,Must let the general retail aware of their investment ability have big limitations,His investment performance than it market average,How to correct,May through the investment fund,Through the negative investment rather than positive on the stock market,Could investors but can obtain better investment performance.We think conversion investors investment behavior and investment concept is very important.The second is investors now basically and listed companies game is always at a disadvantage,So how to better regulate the behavior of listed companies,Whether improve corporate governance structure,Still say forced dividends,Still say for some illegal or incomplete legal behavior attack strength enhancement,I think this is very important.

　　整个市场里法制和规则的建设。现在很多海外学者都会说到，我们国内并不缺法律，也不缺规则，缺的是执法和真正的法律尊严和法律影响力，前段时间国内有内幕交易和信息披露，很不完整地证监会的起诉、指责和市场进入。但在刑事处罚条例里，其实他们受到的处罚并不是很严重。而在海外，比如美国证监会有直接的起诉司法和立项的权力，所以怎么能够对证监会提出很多的要求，进一步提升资本市场质量的同时也给予它更多的一些工具和武器，能使它更好地行使它法律赋予的这个责任，我觉得其实也是非常重要的发展方向。

The whole market in the construction of the legal system and rules.Now a lot of overseas scholars will say to,We have no lack of domestic law,Also don't lack of rules,There is a law enforcement and real the dignity of the law and legal influence,Some time ago, there is a insider trading and information disclosure,Is not completely to CSRC prosecution/Accused and market access.But in the penal code,In fact they have been punished and not very serious.In overseas,For instance the United States securities regulatory commission have direct prosecution justice and the power of the project,So how can to CSRC puts forward many requirements,To further enhance the quality of the capital market and give it some more tools and weapons,Can make it better exercise it endowed by laws this responsibility,I think it is a very important development direction.

　　行情仅是反弹 短期不会出现牛市 Quotation is only a short-term rebound will not appear bull market

　　和讯网：朱教授，上周五我们看到股市出现了反弹，您认为这次反弹是由于什么样的原因所引起？我们看到，最近发改委审批了近万亿关于基础设施建设项目，您认为会不会像2008年出现一轮新的刺激政策的产生呢？

HeXunWang:Professor zhu,On Friday we saw the stock market appeared to rebound,Do you think the rally is due to what kind of the causes?We see,Recent development and reform commission (NDRC) nearly trillions of examination and approval on infrastructure construction project,Do you think would like appeared in 2008 a new round of stimulus policy produce it?

　　朱宁：星期五这一轮大的反弹我觉得确实给很多市场参与者带来很多的希望，我觉得这有两个背景：第一，正好发改委审批了大规模的项目，引发了投资者对于会不会有新一轮财政甚至货币刺激政策的推出产生了一些遐想。第二，可能在长期的下跌过程中，这一轮的反弹无论从技术上的修复还是投资者情绪的释放，或者整个价值回归了一个稳定，我觉得都可以理解，但关键还是在于大家对下一轮整个宏观经济形势的研判。我个人的看法，尤其在今天公布的上个月CPI，CPI已经扭转了前几个月它下跌的趋势，开始出现了反弹，这在一定程度上我觉得和全球粮食价格包括大宗商品的价格异动有关。

ZhuNing:The last round of big rebound I think does give many market participants to bring a lot of hope,I think there are two background:The first,Just development and reform commission approval the massive project,Triggered investors for will there be a new round of financial and monetary stimulus policy launch caused some daydream.The second,May in the long process of falling,This round of rebound no matter from technical repair or the release of investor's emotion,Or the whole value return to a stable,I think all can understand,But the key lies in you for the next round of the whole macro economic situation of the judge.My personal view,Especially in the CPI released today last month,CPI has turned a few months before it falling trend,Start appeared to rebound,This, to a certain extent, I think and global food prices including commodity prices moved about.

　　另一方面不可否认跟现在出现一定松动的财政或货币政策是有关系的，无论是房地产还是一些大型的基础设施的投资项目，从这个角度讲，我觉得这一次政策放松无论从力度还是决心，还是从技术上的可行性，都比2008年、2009年那一次大规模的财政刺激政策都会要微妙得多，或要审慎得多。

On the other hand can not deny and now there is a certain loose fiscal and monetary policy is related,Whether real estate or a few large infrastructure investment project,From this point of view,I think it a policy to relax no matter from strength was determined,Or the technical feasibility,Than in 2008/In 2009 that a massive fiscal stimulus policy will much more subtle,Or more prudence.

　　所以，我觉得这次反弹可能会有一定的力度，但不会很短时间内出现大规模的大牛市的行情。这是我个人的看法。

so,I think that the rebound may have a certain strength,But not very short time large-scale big bull market in the market.This is my personal opinion.

　　和讯网：非常感谢朱教授接受我们的2012夏季达沃斯现场访谈！谢谢您！

HeXunWang:Thank you very much for professor zhu accept our 2012 summer davos field interview!Thank you for your!