无论是国家发改委近日公布的万亿投资项目批复，还是地方政府形形色色的“四万亿”2.0投资计划，在中国银行(601988,股吧)体系最敏感的信贷数据上，均尚未看出立竿见影的效果；不过，前8个月社会融资规模高达10.7万亿，比上年同期多增6915亿元却在暗示资金面并没有想象的那么萎缩。

Whether the national development and reform commission recently published trillions of investment project approval,Or local government mixed"Four trillion"2.0 investment plan,In the bank of China(601988,guba)System the most sensitive credit data,All has not yet see immediate effect;but,In the first eight months social financing scale up to 10.7 trillion,Than the same period last year increased more than $691.5 billion in financing area and suggested but have no imagination of so atrophy.

　　9月11日，中国人民银行最新金融统计数据显示，8月社会融资规模为1.24万亿元，分别较上月和上年同期多1885亿元和1666亿元。其中，当月人民币贷款新增高达7039亿元，高于市场普遍预期的6000亿-6500亿的水平；不过，新增对公贷款“短多长少”的格局并未实质性改善，也表明指望银行再来一轮信贷大跃进的想法不切实际。

On September 11,,The people's bank of China the latest financial statistics data show,August social financing scale for 1.24 trillion yuan,Last month were more and the same period last year more than 188.5 billion yuan and 166.6 billion yuan.the,The new renminbi loans as high as 703.9 billion yuan,Higher than the market generally expected 600 billion - 650 billion level;but,Tests of new loans"Short long less"Pattern did not substantial improvement,Also suggests that expect another round of bank credit the great leap forward impractical.

　　发改委近日公布项目批复后，不少人以为大规模刺激又来了。实际上，这些项目都在“十二五”规划内，多为今年四到八月批复，而最近一次性公布。一家外资行银行首席经济学家认为，即使有意稍微加快步伐，但苦于地方财政拮据、银行贷款谨慎，也将受到资金约束。

Development and reform commission recently announced the project after approval,Many people think that massive stimulus again.In fact,These projects are in"1025"Planning in,For this year more than four to August reply,And recently released a one-time.A foreign line bank chief economist think,Even a little bit to speed up the pace,But suffer from local financial embarrassment/Bank loans carefully,Also will be capital constraint.

　　与信贷活动持续“低迷”的表现相比，进入2012年，无论信托贷款还是委托贷款，银行表外融资活跃程度提高，二季度以来债市的大扩容，更使企业债融资高歌猛进，这是社会融资规模逆势增长的关键所在。

And for the credit activities"downturn"Performance compared with,In the 2012 years,No matter the trust loans or entrust loan,Bank off-balance-sheet financing activity to improve,Since the second quarter of the bond market big flash,More make QiYeZhai financing rapid development,This is the social financing scale contrarian the key to growth.

　　9月11日，兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委表示，8月社会融资总量数据的最大亮点，不是略超市场预期的新增信贷，而是同比多增过千亿的“信托贷款”，它们或许成为了当前地方项目资本金不足的曲径暗道。相关政策的变化似乎具有最明显的逆周期意味。

On September 11,,Societe generale(601166,guba)Chief economist commissar lu said,August social financing amount of the biggest highlights of the data,Not just super market expectations of new credit,But more than a year-on-year increase of billions"Trust loans",They may become the current local project fund shortage of meandering postern.Relevant policy change seems to have the most obvious reverse cycle means.

　　尽管凯恩斯主义近期受到了不少的质疑，但在中国仍拥有强大的拥趸。

Although Keynesian recently received a lot of questions,But in China still have a strong fan.

　　9月11日，天津达沃斯论坛。前世界银行高级副行长兼首席经济学家林毅夫重申了他的观点：摆脱世界经济危机有赖于基础设施的大规模投入，特别是发展中国家的投入。

On September 11,,Tianjin davos BBS.Former world bank senior vice President and chief economist Justin yifu Lin reiterated his point of view:Get rid of the world economic crisis depends on infrastructure of large-scale investment,Especially in developing countries.

　　“短多长少”未根本改善 "Short long less"Not the basic improvement

　　林毅夫对新一轮刺激政策持有乐观判断，“当初中国投入几十亿建高速公路的时候也有很多反对声音，现在我们再来看，我们的高速公路上已经相当拥挤了。”

Justin yifu Lin to a new round of stimulus policy hold optimistic judgement,"Had China into billions of the construction of many highways, and many against voice,Now we see again,Our highways is already pretty crowded."

　　另一位学者清华大学经济管理学院教授李稻葵也持有相同观点。他认为，中国要稳定增长，最重要的是必须推出一批最基本的投资项目。

Another scholars tsinghua university economic management academy professor LiDaoKui also hold the same view.He thinks,China to stable growth,The most important thing is to launch a number of the most basic investment projects.

　　事实上，今年二季度以来“稳增长”计划已悄然出炉。9月5-6日，短短两天时间，国家发改委网站先后公布了总投资规模逾万亿元的25个城轨项目、13个公路建设项目、10个市政类项目和7个港口、航道项目。

In fact,Since the second quarter of this year"Steady growth"A plan has quietly.September 5-6,Just two days,The national development and reform commission website has announced the total investment more than one trillion yuan of 25 city rail project/13 highway construction project/10 municipal kind of project and seven port/Channel project.

　　不过，由谁来为新一轮刺激计划买单？

but,Who will pay for a new round of stimulus plan?

　　商业可行性仍将是商业银行发放贷款的主要考量因素刚刚结束的2012年中期业绩发布会上，当被问及当前不少地方政府推出新版四万亿计划，多数银行给出相似回答。

Commercial feasibility will still be the commercial Banks to issue loans main considerations just at the end of the 2012 interim results conference,When asked about the current local government launched a new four trillion plan,Most Banks are similar to answer.

　　“近来央企同地方政府签约规模较大，我们银行没有急于跟风。” 某国有大行对公业务中层告诉本报记者。本报此前获得的数据显示，8月份，工、农、中、建四大行新增人民币贷款约2200亿元，甚至比上月要低200亿元。

"Recently, with the local government signed renmin large scale,Our bank not to follow suit." A state-owned large line tests of the middle business told the reporter.Our previously acquired data display,In August,work/agriculture/in/To build four line new RMB loans of about 220 billion yuan,And even lower than last month of 20 billion yuan.

　　而今年以来“短多长少”的信贷结构也没有大的改善。央行数据显示，当月新增对公短期贷款1501亿元，较上月多增547亿元；新增票据融资1314亿元，较上月少增212亿元。

And since this year"Short long less"Credit structure also does not have the big improvement.Data showed that the central bank,The tests of new short-term loans 150.1 billion yuan,More than a month earlier increase 54.7 billion yuan;New bill financing is 131.4 billion yuan,A less last month increase 21.2 billion yuan.

　　尽管8月份7039亿元新增贷款有所回升，但部分得益于住房成交量回升所带来的个人贷款的拉动，当月住户中长期消费贷款增加1657亿元，较上月多增477亿元，是自2011年4月以来的最高值。

Although August 703.9 billion yuan of new loans have rebounded,But thanks in part to the housing turnover rebound brought about by the personal loan pull,The long-term resident consumption loan an increase of 165.7 billion yuan,More than a month earlier increase 47.7 billion yuan,Since 2011, the highest since April.

　　此外，8月份新增对公中长期贷款1203亿元，较上月多增283亿元，交通银行(601328,股吧)金融研究中心鄂永健认为，这反映了在建项目和新项目的计划投资额持续增长对信贷的拉动作用，但与历史比较这一水平依然偏低。

In addition,August new tests of long-term and medium-term loans 120.3 billion yuan,More than a month earlier increase 28.3 billion yuan,Bank of communications(601328,guba)Financial research center for hubei health think,It reflects the construction projects and new projects investment of sustained growth of credit pull role,But and historical comparison this level is still low.

　　地方政府投资冲动及游说之下，银行心态颇为矛盾，既要跟随国家政策，避免失去投资机会，又要照顾到风险及流动性、存贷比等监管要求。

The local government investment impulse and under the lobby,Bank mentality rather contradictions,Should not only follow the national policy,Avoid losing investment opportunities,And to take care of to risk and liquidity/Deposit-loan ratio and regulatory requirements.

　　“地方政府融资平台贷款是有增加，而且利率上仍然给予一定的优惠。”某股份制银行郑州分行人士说，经济下行，银行对中小企业客户贷款风险担忧在加大，“做央企和地方政府的生意，起码是安全的。”

"The local government loan financing platform is increased,And the interest rate is still offer certain preferential."A joint-stock bank zhengzhou branch activists say,Economic descending,Bank loans to small and medium-sized enterprise customer risk concerns in the increase,"Do renmin and local government business,At least is safe."

　　金融脱媒时代到来 Financial disintermediation era

　　一边是信贷需求的萎靡不振，一边却是社会融资规模的平稳上升，进入2012年，商业银行不得不正视金融脱媒所带来的冲击。

On one side is the credit demand falters,One side is social financing scale rising steadily,In the 2012 years,Commercial Banks have to face financial disintermediation brought about by the impact.

　　2012年，银行间和交易所两个债市的扩容冲动，使债券这一直接融资方式大行其道。央行统计数据显示，今年1-8月企业债券融资额已经高达1.33万亿元。

In 2012,,Between the bank and bourse bond market expansion of the two impulse,Make bonds the direct financing is popular.The central bank statistics data show,First eight months of this year, or junk-rated enterprise bond has been as high as 1.33 trillion yuan.

　　中金公司统计，3月以来，城投债发行规模提速，3-7月月均发行规模4304亿元，明显高于2010和2011年全年水平（月均分别为1547亿和1842亿）。

Cicc statistics,Since march,City for debt issuance speed scale,3 to 7 month in and month out all issue size is 430.4 billion yuan,Is obviously higher than that of the 2010 and 2011 level throughout the year(The average monthly respectively for 154.7 billion and 184.2 billion).

　　“无论是地方政府还是大型国企都宁愿发债不要贷款。”一位股份行高层此前告诉记者，目前根据对公客户的不同分类要求，对于总行级核客户，商业银行提供的核心产品不是贷款，而是“投行业务+现金管理”。

"Whether local governments or large state-owned enterprises are rather FaZhai don't loan."A stock line top previously told reporters,At present according to the tests of the customer's different classification requirements,For the head office level nuclear customer,The core of the commercial bank to provide the loan product is not,but"Investment banking + cash management".

　　此外，近两年以来，受制于贷款规模和资本约束，银行表外融资活动日趋活跃。

In addition,Since the last two years,Subject to the size of the loan and capital constraint,Bank off-balance-sheet financing activities has become increasingly active.

　　以委托贷款和信托贷款等表外融资手段为例，委托贷款几乎呈现出于信贷投放一样的波动规律，即季初回落，季末冲刺，1、4、7月三个月份委托贷款增长-148亿、96亿和73亿，但3月份和6月份则一度暴涨至950亿和1040亿元的水准；8月份，委托贷款增加1046亿元，为今年以来最高值。

To entrust loans and trust loans off-balance-sheet financing means for example,Entrust loans almost present out of credit availability the same variation rule,Namely early in the season back,Season sprint,1/4/July 3 months entrust loan growth - 14.8 billion/In 9.6 billion and 7.3 billion,But 3 months and 6 months is once jumped to 95 billion and 104 billion yuan level;In August,Entrust loan an increase of 104.6 billion yuan,For high this year.

　　与委托贷款相反，信托贷款则呈现相反的波动规律，季初猛增，季末回落，1、4、7月三个月份分别增加1646亿、1015亿和1279亿元。8月份，信托贷款增加1180亿元，同比多增1004亿元。

And entrust loans instead,Trust loans revealed the opposite the variation rule,Explosion early in the season,Season back,1/4/July 3 months increased 164.6 billion/101.5 billion and 127.9 billion yuan.In August,Trust loan an increase of 118 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase more than 100.4 billion yuan.