瑞银证券：我们判断A股2012年整体业绩零增长，其中非金融利润下降9.7%，金融利润增长12%。我们预计，四季度非金融企业盈利增速将在基数效应和今年底明年初可能的“补库存”效应下，出现改善，表现为四季度非金融上市公司净利润增速和ROE分别由三季度的-11.1%、2.4%回升至9.9%、2.7%。

Ubs securities:We judge of A shares in 2012 the overall performance zero growth,The non-financial profit dropped 9.7%,Financial profit growth of 12%.We expect,Four quarter non-financial corporate earnings growth in the base effect and the end of the possible early next year"Fill inventory"Effect under,Appear to improve,For the performance of the fourth quarter non-financial listed company net profit growth and ROE respectively by the third quarter - 11.1%/Back up to 9.9% 2.4%/2.7%.

　　当前展望2013年盈利增长，仍存在众多不确定因素，尤以政策最难判断。我们给出两种情景假设。乐观预测下：预计非金融增长19.5%，金融增长5%，非金融ROE升至10.6%（2012年预计为9.6%）。谨慎假设（经济无甚起色）下：预计非金融零增长，金融增长5%，非金融ROE降至9.4%（2012年预计为9.6%）。

The outlook for the 2013 earnings growth,There are still many uncertain factors,Especially in the policy most difficult judgment.We present two kinds of situation hypothesis.Optimistic prediction:Non-financial growth is expected to 19.5%,Financial growth of 5%,Non-financial ROE rose to 10.6%(In 2012 is expected to 9.6%).Cautious hypothesis(Economic without any improvement)under:Is expected to non-financial zero growth,Financial growth of 5%,Non-financial ROE drop to 9.4%(In 2012 is expected to 9.6%).

　　（陈刚 整理）

(Chen gang finishing)