11日，央行对外发布的数据显示，8月新增贷款达到7039亿元，较7月份的5401亿元大增1638亿元，大大超过了市场的6000亿元左右的预期。此外，央行数据显示，M1、M2增速均较7月份出现了小幅回落。

11,The central bank released data show,August new loans amounted to 703.9 billion yuan,More in July 540.1 billion yuan RMB 163.8 billion a,Much more than the market expected 600 billion yuan or so.In addition,Data showed that the central bank,M1/M2 growth than in July appeared dropped slightly.

　　分析人士认为，8月份的新增信贷规模回升，与发改委近期连续批复多个领域的“稳增长”项目，以及此前多个地方政府陆续宣布高达数万亿的投资计划有较大关系。但记者从部分银行了解到，目前尚无对信贷开闸放水的计划，未来信贷将更有针对性、前瞻性地支持实体经济发展。

Analysts believe that,In August of the new credit scale picks up,With the development and reform commission recently continuous reply several areas"Steady growth"project,And more than previous local government has announced as high as multibillion investment plan has great relations.But reporters from part of the bank to know,At present there is no to credit sluice plan,The future credit will be more specific/Proactively support the entity economy development.

　　⊙记者 苗燕 ○编辑 枫林

⊙ reporter MiaoYan ○ editing bush

　　企业贷款占比创年内新低 Enterprise loans accounted for ratio and low years

　　数据显示，8月末，人民币贷款余额达到60.89万亿元，同比增长16.1%，比上月末高0.1个百分点，比上年同期低0.3个百分点。当月人民币贷款同比多增1555亿元。其中，住户贷款增加2825亿元；非金融企业及其他部门贷款增加4211亿元。

Data display,Late August,RMB loan balance reached 60.89 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 16.1%,Late last month, more than 0.1% higher,A 0.3% lower than the same period last year.The year-on-year increase RMB loans more than 155.5 billion yuan.the,Household loan an increase of 282.5 billion yuan;Non-financial enterprises and other departments loan an increase of 421.1 billion yuan.

　　尽管8月新增贷款有所回升，但企业新增贷款占比仅为59.82%，仍然是今年以来企业贷款占当月新增贷款比重最低的月份，较7月份下降了6.06个百分点。此外，其中短期贷款增加1501亿元，中长期贷款增加1203亿元，票据融资增加1314亿元。长期贷款占企业新增贷款的比例为28.57%，较7月份有2.71个百分点的提升，但仍低于30%，显示企业有效信贷需求仍未出现明显回升。

Although new loans have rebounded in August,But the enterprise of new loans than is only 59.82%,Is still since this year enterprise loans accounted for the proportion of new loans in the lowest,A fell by 6.06% in July.In addition,The short term loan an increase of 150.1 billion yuan,Long-term and medium-term loans an increase of 120.3 billion yuan,Bill financing an increase of 131.4 billion yuan.Long-term loans enterprises accounted for 28.57% of new loans,A July 2.71% of ascension,But is still less than 30%,Display enterprise effective credit demand is still not appear rebounded.

　　此外，数据显示，8月末外币贷款余额5951亿美元，同比增长17.2%，当月外币贷款增加117亿美元。当月人民币存款增加5044亿元，同比少增2022亿元。

In addition,Data display,Late August foreign currency loan balance of $595.1 billion,Year-on-year growth of 17.2%,The foreign currency loans rose by $11.7 billion.The RMB deposit an increase of 504.4 billion yuan,Year-on-year increase 202.2 billion yuan less.

　　未来4个月或难现开闸放水 The next four months or difficult now sluice

　　随着8月份的新增信贷回升至7000亿元以上，加之连续的“稳增长”计划出台，市场对于未来4个月的新增信贷走高又重燃了希望。

With the August of new credit picks up to 700 billion yuan of above,Together with continuous"Steady growth"Plans to come out,The market for the next four months of new credit walk tall and reignition hope.

　　不过，10日发布的进出口数据显示，出口疲软的同时，进口也出现了负增长，显示经济探底的过程仍在继续。为此，有分析人士指出，即便数万亿的投资计划在推进，但企业的实际有效信贷需求可能存在滞后效应。

but,10 issued by the import and export data display,Export weak at the same time,Import also appeared negative growth,Showing the economy on the bottom of the exploration process continues.therefore,Analytic personage points out,Even if multibillion investment plan in advance,But the enterprise actual effective credit demand may be lagging effect.

　　农行高管此前在半年报业绩说明会上也明确表示：“对银行来说坚持稳健货币政策基本取向没有发生变化，不存在开闸放水。预计全年信贷会保持稳定增长。”

After agriculture bank executives in half annals performance also made it clear that the meeting:"For Banks prudent monetary policy did not change the basic orientation,Does not exist sluice.Expected annual credit will keep stable growth."

　　此前市场预计全年新增信贷约在8.5万亿左右。1-8月人民币贷款增加6.10万亿元，未来4个月的平均新增贷款约为6000亿元。但通常季末会有相对较大幅度的冲高。

After the market is expected to new credit at around $8.5 trillion.1 - August RMB loan an increase of 6.1 trillion yuan,The next four months average new loans is about 600 billion yuan.But usually season there will be relatively large impact high.

　　货币政策或有松动 Monetary policy or loose

　　随着央行近两个月以来频繁使用逆回购等更为灵活的工具来调节银行体系流动性，存款准备金率及利率等工具迟迟缺位。农行战略规划部付兵涛指出，央行之所以迟迟不降准，除了将逆回购常态化可以满足市场的流动性需求之外，也反映出决策层担心货币政策放松会强化房价继续上涨的预期，而对物价的警惕也限制了货币政策的放松空间。在这种情况下，预计财政政策将承担起“稳增长”的重任，而货币政策仍将保持“无为而治”的态势，降准和降息的时间窗口将继续后延，逆回购操作的频率和力度会相应继续上升。

As the central bank implements nearly two months frequently used reverse repurchase of more flexible tool to adjust the banking system liquidity,Deposit reserve ratio and interest rate tools such as absence of delays.Agriculture bank strategic planning FuBing pointed out that out,The central bank does not fall tardy quasi,In addition to will reverse repurchase normalization can satisfy the market liquidity demand outside,Also reflects decision-making worry that monetary policy relaxation will strengthen housing prices continued to rise expected,But to price vigilance also limits the monetary policy of relaxation space.In this case,Fiscal policy will be expected to take up"Steady growth"The responsibility of,And monetary policy will remain"themselves"trend,Drop must cut interest rates and time window will continue to later,Reverse repurchase operation frequency and strength will be corresponding continue to rise.

　　而瑞穗证券亚洲公司首席经济学家沈建光指出，稳投资仍是当前稳增长的关键。而带动基础设施投资不仅需要投资政策支持，更需要信贷政策配合。他认为，当前中长期贷款占比较低是因为缺乏信贷政策的配合。他主张，在温和通胀水平之下，需要货币政策发力，特别是下调准备金率。而综合考虑PPI和CPI的数据，他认为货币政策放松的空间仍然存在。

Asian companies and mizuho securities chief economist ShenJianGuang pointed out,Steady investment is still the current stable the key to growth.And drive the infrastructure investment needs not only investment policy support,Need more credit policy fit.He thinks,The current long-term and medium-term loans accounted for relatively low because of the lack of credit policy to cooperate.He advocated,In mild inflation under the level,Need to monetary policy hair force,Especially cut reserve ratio.And comprehensive consideration of the CPI and PPI data,He thinks that monetary policy relaxation space still exist.

　　据统计，9月份的四周时间内，公开市场到期资金量分别为-1870 亿元、-650 亿元、60 亿元、20 亿元，全月累计到期资金-2440 亿元。综合考虑9 月、10 月到期资金分布和中秋、国庆等假日因素，付兵涛认为，央行继续进行较大规模的逆回购操作应无悬念，也不排除降准的可能。

According to the statistics,Around the time in September,Open market maturity were there - 187 billion yuan/- 65 billion yuan/6 billion yuan/2 billion yuan,The whole month cumulative due capital - 244 billion yuan.Comprehensive consideration of the September/October due capital distribution and the Mid-Autumn festival/National Day holiday factors etc,Out think FuBing,The central bank to continue a large-scale reverse repurchase operation should be no suspense,Also don't expel drop quasi may.