阎岳

YanYue

　　2011年正式统计和发布的社会融资规模是被用作取代M2作为货币政策的中间调控目标而推出的。经过一年多的运行，央行认为社会融资规模已经成为了宏观调控的新指标。

In 2011, after the official statistics and release of social financing scale was used to replace M2 as monetary policy intermediate control target and roll out.After more than a year of operation,The central bank think social financing scale has become the macroeconomic regulation and control of the new index.

　　但各界显然没有对社会融资规模引起足够的重视。尤其是决策层在明确要稳增长、稳投资后，社会融资规模仍旧被“搁置”，以致最近几个月来机构对货币政策工具使用的预判连连出现偏差。

But to the society from all walks of life obviously didn't have the financing scale cause enough attention.Especially the decision-making in the clear to steady growth/Stability after investment,Social financing scale is still"aside",So that in recent months mechanism on monetary policy tools use anticipation repeatedly appeared deviation.

　　为了突出社会融资规模的重要性，央行将之从8月金融统计数据中分离出来单独且稍早发布，这才让各界重新审视这个指标。

In order to highlight the importance of social financing scale,The central bank will from August financial statistics data of separation and separate released earlier,This just let the from all walks of life to re-examine the index.

　　要重视、使用社会融资规模这一指标，就要对它有一个正确的了解。概括起来讲，社会融资规模是因“势”、因“时”而生的产物，其替代M2作为货币政策的中间调控目标顺应了国内金融发展的趋势。

Attention should be paid to the/Use social financing scale this index,Will it have a correct understanding.In summary about,Social financing scale is for"potential"/because"when"The product of born,The alternative M2 as monetary policy intermediate control target complied with the trend of the development of the domestic financial.

　　近年来，我国金融总量快速扩张，金融结构多元发展，金融产品和融资工具不断创新，证券、保险类机构对实体经济资金支持加大，商业银行表外业务对贷款表现出明显替代效应。新增人民币贷款已不能完整反映金融与经济关系，也不能全面反映实体经济的融资规模。所以，社会融资规模是因“势”而生。

In recent years,China's financial total rapid expansion,Financial structure diversified development,Financial products and financing tool innovation,securities/Insurance institutions to the entity economy increase financial support,Commercial bank's off-balance sheet business loans to show obvious substitution effect.New RMB loan already can't complete reflect the financial and economic relations,Also can't reflect the real economy of the financing scale.so,Social financing scale is for"potential"born.

　　这个“势”主要体现在：一是融资提供主体由传统的银行机构，扩大到证券、保险等其他非存款性金融公司；二是融资工具多元发展，非信贷金融工具创新步伐明显加快，贷款占社会融资规模比例不断下降；三是金融调控如果只盯着贷款就会造成“按下葫芦浮起瓢”的现象。

this"potential"Mainly manifests in the:One is to provide financing subject from the traditional banking institutions,Expanded to securities/Insurance and other non deposit sex financial company;The second is financing tool diversified development,The credit financial tool innovation quickened significantly,Loans accounted for social financing scale proportion declining;The third is financial control if only stare at loans can cause"Press the bottle gourd float gourd ladle"phenomenon.

　　2002年时除人民币贷款外的其他融资占比很小，当年人民币贷款占社会融资规模的91.9%，其他融资占比仅为8.1%，统计社会融资规模的意义不大。但是到了2010年情况完全不同了，人民币贷款占社会融资规模的比重下降至60%以下，并且随着金融创新快速发展，未来人民币贷款占比有可能更低。因此，为了提高金融调控的有效性，必须同时关注人民币贷款和其他方式的融资。

2002 RMB loans in addition to the other than small accounts for financing,The RMB loans accounted for 91.9% of the social financing scale,Other than financing accounted for only 8.1%,The significance of statistical social financing scale is not big.But in 2010, the situation is different,RMB loans accounted for the proportion of social financing scale dropped to below 60%,And with the rapid development of financial innovation,Future RMB loans accounted for more than likely low.therefore,In order to improve the effectiveness of financial regulation,Must, at the same time, focus on RMB loans and other means of financing.

　　社会融资规模也是因“时”而生。金融危机后，各国货币当局普遍认识到，随着金融管制的逐步放松和金融创新的发展，传统的货币供应量、信贷规模等中介目标已不能满足中央银行货币政策操作和宏观审慎管理的需要，中央银行需要监测更广义的信用。社会融资规模是对此次国际金融危机反思的产物，符合危机后加强宏观调控和综合、统一的金融监管的新要求。

Social financing scale also through"when"born.After the financial crisis,Countries monetary authorities generally realized,With the financial control gradually relaxed and the development of financial innovation,The traditional money supply/The credit scale, intermediary goal already cannot satisfy the central bank monetary policy operation and macroscopic prudent management need,Central Banks need to monitor more generalized credit.Social financing scale for the international financial crisis is the product of reflection,After the crisis with to strengthen macroeconomic control and comprehensive/Unified financial supervision of the new requirements.

　　与货币供应量、信贷规模等指标相比，社会融资规模能更准确、更全面地反映全社会的融资状况和流动性水平。社会融资规模不仅能从总量上反映金融系统性风险，还能反映金融风险在不同金融机构、不同金融市场之间的传导，从而有利于强化对系统重要性金融机构、市场和工具的监管，最终达到防范整个金融体系系统性风险的目的。

And money supply/The credit scale, compared to the index,Social financing scale can be more accurate/A more comprehensive to reflect the whole society financing status and level of liquidity.Social financing scale can not only reflect the total amount of financial systemic risk,Can also reflect the financial risk in different financial institutions/Between different financial market of conduction,Thus to strengthen system importance financial institutions/The supervision of the market and tools,Finally achieve the financial system to prevent the purpose of systemic risk.

　　现在，经过一年多的运行，社会融资规模这一指标已经成为宏观调控的新指标，以前只重人民币贷款的分析模式也需要做出改变，否则市场预期就会与央行的判断背离。如几个月来市场一直高涨的降准预期迟迟难以实现，就是因为各机构没有对社会融资规模这个指标给予足够的重视，其后果就是跟不上央行的节奏，判断出现偏差。"

now,After more than a year of operation,Social financing scale this index has become the macroeconomic regulation and control of the new index,Before heavy RMB loan analysis model also need to change,Otherwise, the market is expected to will and the central bank's judgment deviation.Such as a few months to market has been rising drop quasi expected was difficult to achieve,Is because agencies not on social financing scale this index to give enough attention,The consequence is that can't keep up with the rhythm of the central bank,Judgment appeared deviation."