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金融危机中寻求突破路径--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-09-15
从全球经济史以及经济思想史的发展脉络看,经济危机往往会引发对现有经济理论与政策体系的激烈争论,其中既可能有对传统经济理论的猛烈批评,也可能是原有理论体系对批评的回应和改进,还可能是尝试提出新的分析框架。由美国2007年的次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机对世界经济产生了广泛而深刻的影响,对经济理论体系的影响也同样显著。本书可以视为此次危机中关于凯恩斯主义争论的代表性著作之一,作者则是凯恩斯主义的代表人物克鲁格曼。
From the global economic history and the history of economic development context to see,The economic crisis will often cause the existing economic theory and policy system of acrimonious debate,There may be of both the traditional economic theory fierce criticism,Also may be the original theory system response and improvement to criticism,May also try to put forward a new analysis frame.The United States in 2007 by the subprime crisis caused by the global financial crisis for the world economy exerts a widespread and profound influence,The influence of the system of economic theory is also significant.This book can be regarded as the crisis of Keynesian debate one of representative works,The author is the representative figure of Keynesian krugman.
作为凯恩斯主义代表人物的克鲁格曼,由于大胆预言亚洲金融危机而声名鹊起,此次全球危机中的分析和建议同样引人注目。作为新凯恩斯经济学的代表,克鲁格曼强烈支持凯恩斯主义的经济主张。他认为,市场并不完善,因此政府干预是必要的。金融危机和大衰退造成了产出缺口,即经济的潜力和实际产出之间的差额,正是需求的巨大短缺使然。他认为,当消费和企业开支难以前进,就只剩下了一种填补缺口的办法:政府必须采取行动,进行刺激性开支,美联储必须推行指向通货膨胀的货币政策,为经济提供第一推动力。
As a representative figure of krugman Keynesian,Due to the Asian financial crisis bold prediction to fame,The global crisis of the analysis and Suggestions also conspicuous.As a representative of the new Keynesian economics,Krugman strongly support Keynesian economic claims.He thinks,Market is not perfect,Therefore, the government intervention is necessary.The financial crisis and the great recession caused the output gap,Namely economic potential and the difference between the actual output,It is due to the great demand shortage.He thinks,When consumer and business spending is difficult to forward,Is only a way to fill the gap:The government must take action,For stimulating spending,The fed must introduce to inflationary monetary policy,For the economy to provide the first driving force.
经济学界的争议永远存在,一些学者对克鲁格曼的理论和观点一直就有质疑。例如,克鲁格曼认为当前的美国失业并非结构性的,而国际货币基金组织等机构的研究报告则认为美国的长期失业人口中有40%属于结构性失业。克鲁格曼在财经媒体领域也十分活跃,在一些财经媒体经常撰写专栏来呼吁自己的政策建议,本书就是他对应对当前危机的一系列带有十分鲜明凯恩斯主义色彩的建议和看法。
Economic academic disputes exist forever,Some scholars to the krueman's theory and ideas have been have questioned.For example,Krugman think that the United States is not structural unemployment,And the international monetary fund organizations research reports say the United States is the long-term unemployed population 40% belongs to structural unemployment.During his visit in the financial media field is also very active,In some financial media often writes a column to call for their own policy recommendations,This book is his current crisis to deal with a series of with very bright Keynesian colour Suggestions and opinions.
在经济学中有一句名言:“世界上没有免费的午餐。”不过,在克鲁格曼看来,在大衰退和金融危机冲击下,“只要我们伸出手,就有免费午餐,因为这时候大量的闲置资源就有用武之地了”。 这是典型的克鲁格曼的政策基调。
There is a famous saying in economics:"There is no free lunch."but,Krugman seems to be in,In a recession and financial crisis impact,"As long as we hand,There is a free lunch,Because this time a large number of idle resources have the use of". This is typical of the krueman's policy fundamental key.
发端于美国的次贷危机席卷全球,各国积极应对,大致看来,在应对金融危机中主要采取了以下几方面的措施:出台金融救助方案,扩张性的财政政策和货币政策以及出台产业发展政策。总体来说,世界主要发达经济体程度不同地在凯恩斯主义旗帜的影响下,推出了一系列政策举措,也产生了一定的效果。不过,对于这些凯恩斯主义色彩鲜明的危机应对措施,各种批评也一直不断,本书就可以视为克鲁格曼对这些批评的回应。
Originated in America's subprime crisis sweeping the globe,To deal with the various countries' positive,Roughly seems,In dealing with the financial crisis mainly adopted the following several aspects of the measures:On the financial rescue plan,Expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy and issued the policy of industrial development.overall,The world's major developed economies in different degree in Keynesian under the influence of flags,Introduced a series of policy measures,Also produced certain effect.but,For these Keynesian color bright crisis response measures,All sorts of criticism has also been constantly,This book can be regarded as the criticism of krugman response.
在全球化时代,中国经济与全球市场的互动更为紧密,在危机冲击下,除了推出一系列应对危机、刺激内需的政策举措外,更为关键的还是通过改革释放制度红利,促进经济转型。
In the age of globalization,China's economy with the global market interaction more closely,In a crisis under the impact,In addition to launch a series of coping with crisis/Stimulating domestic demand policy move outside,More key or through the reform release system bonus,Promote economic transformation.
21世纪初美国互联网泡沫破灭后,一方面,美英等发达国家加速推进全球化进程和资本输出,进一步加剧了全球经济结构失衡;另一方面,美国为刺激经济长期实施过度宽松的货币政策,鼓励高杠杆、高风险、低透明度且缺乏监管的金融创新,导致本国房地产泡沫急剧膨胀、缺乏监管的影子银行体系扩张、金融体系的杠杆水平显著提高。
The 21st century America after the dotcom bubble burst,On the one hand,Developed countries such as America and Britain accelerating process of globalization and capital output,Further intensifies the global imbalance of economic structure;On the other hand,The United States to stimulate the economy long-term implementation of excessive loose monetary policy,Encourage high lever/High risk/Low transparency and lack of supervision of financial innovation,Cause our country real estate foam rapid expansion/The lack of supervision of the shadow banking system expansion/The financial system of the lever level increased significantly.
2005年以来,伴随新兴市场国家经济崛起,全球资源供应格局打破,通货膨胀压力高企,美国进入加息通道,直接导致美国房地产泡沫的破灭,2007年年底次贷危机正式爆发。本次危机爆发不仅是国际经济结构长期失衡的集中反映,更是布雷顿森林体系崩溃后以美元为核心的国际货币体系失衡和金融监管缺失的必然结果。危机打破了原有经济金融结构和格局,美欧等经济体或经济区域面临巨大的调整成本,经济陷入衰退或缓慢复苏;新兴市场国家面临通胀高企-政策收缩-经济放缓的调整时期。可见,中国与其他主要经济体的经济关联性日趋紧密,相互影响加大。
Since 2005,With emerging market countries economic rise,The global resources supply pattern break,High inflation pressure,The United States into rates channel,The direct cause of America's housing bubble,By the end of 2007 the subprime crisis broke out formally.This crisis is not only the international economic structure of the imbalance of long-term concentrated reflection,Is the breakdown of the bretton woods system in dollars as the core of the international monetary system imbalances and the inevitable result of lack of financial supervision.Crisis broke original economic and financial structure and pattern,Such as the American and European economies or economic area are faced with great adjustment cost,The economy into a recession or slow recovery;Emerging market countries face inflation high - policy contraction - economic slowdown adjustment period.visible,China and other major economies increasingly close economic relevance,Influence each other more.
当前全球经济和各国国际收支面临再平衡的过程;“去美元化”、改革现有国际货币体系的议题也被提上日程;国际金融监管架构和制度在压力下正在经历大刀阔斧的修改和重塑;金融市场、金融机构、金融工具面临重大变革。在如此复杂多变的国际经济金融形势下,如何评估本次危机的影响,如何准确把握危机后世界经济金融结构变化的趋势、如何结合中国实际情况处理好经济转型与金融发展和金融结构的关系,对于迅速崛起并处于转型改革关键时期的中国来说具有十分重要的战略意义。
The current global economy and international balance of payments face to balance process;"To dollarization"/Reform the existing international monetary system issues have also been put on the agenda;International financial regulatory framework and system in pressure is undergoing drastic changes and remodeling;Financial markets/Financial institutions/Financial tool is facing a great change.In such a complex and volatile international economic and financial situation,How to evaluate the influence of the crisis,How to accurately grasp the crisis after the world economic and financial structure change trend/How to combine the actual situation in China to deal with the transformation of the economic and financial development and financial structure of the relationship,For the rapid rise in the reform and transformation of key period for China has very important strategic significance.
在外部金融危机的冲击和内部经济增长回落等压力下,当前中国进入了经济转型的关键时期。欧债危机等外部因素增加了世界经济的不确定性,发达经济体的增长中枢或已阶段性下移;内部随着劳动力成本上升,中国人口红利逐渐减退。因此,在应对金融危机冲击的过程中,推出一定规模的刺激内需政策来应对经济周期性回落是有必要的,但是更为关键的还是促进经济转型,促使中国未来的经济增长动力将转向内生性,制度性红利的释放和经济系统的结构性转变。
The impact of the financial crisis in the external and internal economic growth fell under pressure, etc,The current China has entered a critical period of economic transition.The debt crisis external factors increase the uncertainty of the world economy,The growth of the developed economies central or already phased down;Internal with higher labor costs,China's population dividend gradually decreases.therefore,In dealing with the impact of the financial crisis in the process,Out of a certain size stimulation domestic demand policy to deal with economic cyclical back is necessary,But more key or promote economic transformation,Prompted China's future economic growth will turn endogenous,Institutional bonus release and economic system structural transformation.
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