中国是少数利率没有市场化的经济体。即便是同处于发展中的印度、巴西等国家，也在近年完成了利率市场化。

China is one of the few rate no market economy.Even if is the same in the development of India/Brazil and other countries,In recent years also complete the marketization of interest rate.

　　长时间的利率管控，不仅造就了银行业的巨额利润，也影响了宏观经济结构，对整个经济转型形成了桎梏。

Long time of interest rate control,Not only make the banking huge profits,Also influence the macro economic structure,To the whole economic transformation to form the shackles.

　　在包商银行首席经济学家华而诚眼中，当前，中国的利率市场化势在必行。从美国国民经济研究局、国际货币基金组织到世界银行，华而诚练就了深厚的宏观理论功底与全球视野，担任中国建设银行(601939,股吧)与包商银行的首席经济学家经历，又让他在微观层面对中国的金融体系有真切认知。

In the contractor's bank chief economist China and sincere eyes,The current,China's interest rate marketization is imperative.The national economy research from the United States/The international monetary fund to the world bank,China and honesty practice deep macroscopic theory foundation of basic skills and global vision,As China construction bank(601939,guba)And contractor's bank chief economist of the experience,And let him in the micro level of China's financial system is really cognitive.

　　利率市场化势在必行，但这也并非说前路一片坦荡。在世界银行调查的44个实行利率市场化的国家中，有近一半的国家在利率市场化进程中发生了金融危机，而利率放开后中小银行受到很大冲击，不乏倒闭破产之类案例。那么在华而诚看来，中国的利率市场化应如何推进，中国的路径又有何不同？

Interest rate marketization is imperative,But it is not that the former way a piece of straight.At the world bank's survey of the marketization of interest rate and 44 countries,Nearly half of the countries in the course of interest rate liberalization experiencing a financial crisis,But interest rates after let go of small and medium-sized Banks is much impact,There is no lack of collapse bankruptcy case and so on.So in China and honesty seems,China's interest rate marketization should be how to promote,China's path and have any different?

　

　管控的弊端 Control the disadvantages of

　　《英才》：中国推进利率市场化是否有必要性？

[elite]:China to push interest rate marketization if there is necessity?

　　华而诚：从全球来看，跟中国经济发展相当的国家和地区，从拉丁美洲到亚洲，大部分利率都放开了。当然，这与中国的经济体以国有企业为主有很大关系。由于国企缺乏财务“硬约束”机制，因此普遍对利率不敏感，提高利率企业也不会减少投资，其主导的投资行为又多。对国家而言，利率管控，不如直接管信贷规模。

China and sincere:globally,With China's economic development is quite countries and regions,From Latin America to Asia,Most of the interest rates are released.Of course,This and China's economy to state-owned enterprise is given priority to have very big concern.Due to the lack of financial state-owned enterprises"Hard constraint"mechanism,So generally is not sensitive to interest rates,To raise interest rates enterprise will not reduce the investment,Its leading investment behavior and more.For countries,Interest rate control,As direct pipe size of credit.

　　但其他国家没有那么多国有企业，很多都是民营企业，利率的调整对他们的信贷影响比较大。所以，发达经济体普遍将利率的调整作为很重要的信贷调控工具。随着中国经济市场化及国有企业改革的推进，这也促使利率市场化必须再大幅推进的时机来临。

But other countries do not have so much state-owned enterprise,Many are private enterprises,The adjustment of interest rates to their credit influence is bigger.so,The developed economies will be common interest rate adjustment as a very important credit control tool.With China's economic marketization and state-owned enterprise reform,It also encourages interest rate marketization must be more greatly promote time coming.

　　《英才》：在利率没有放开的情况下，国家采取了信贷管控的方式。你怎样评价这种数量型的控制模式？

[elite]:In the interest rate under the condition of not let go,The state has adopted a credit control way.How do you evaluate the quantitative control mode?

　　华而诚：由于政府对利率传导机制不放心，遇到通胀高企时就直接以行政的手段控制贷款量，而不是用提高资金的价格来抑制投资、减少贷款需求。但真正的市场经济应该“以价制量”。虽然市场不一定百分之百对，但行政力量没有办法发现价格，十弄九错，而且没效率。

China and sincere:Due to the government interest rate transmission mechanism is not assured,Meet high inflation is directly on administrative means to control lending,Not by increasing the price of capital to curb investment/Reduce loan demand.But the real market economy should be"To price system quantity".Although the market does not necessarily to one hundred percent,But administrative power have no way to find that prices,Ten get nine wrong,And no efficiency.

　　发达经济体与发展中经济体的差距就在于金融体制。金融跟实体是一体两面的，金融不到位实体就不到位，金融也就无法好好服务实体经济。我们的金融要想服务实体经济，首先必须改革，要有效率，要市场化。

Developed economies and developing economies lies in the gap between the financial system.Financial and entity is one of the two sides,Financial does not reach the designated position entity is not in place,Financial cannot take service entity economy.Our financial to service the real economy,First must reform the,To efficiently,To market.

　　《英才》：宏观方面讲，利率管控造成了哪些结构性失衡？

[elite]:In terms of macroscopic,What are the interest rate control causes structural imbalances?

　　华而诚：这从利率跟通货膨胀的关系可以反应出来。比如过去10年，通胀上去了，但利率没有及时调整，至少滞后半年到一年，实际存款利率基本是0或者负的。中国的存款量相当大，实际存款利率如果是负的，居民存款利息收入就很少，就必须增加储蓄来补偿，如此消费就受到了抑制。

China and sincere:This from the relationship between the interest rate and inflation can reaction comes out.Such as over the past 10 years.,Inflation up,But interest rates not adjust,At least six months to a year lag,Real deposit interest rate basic is 0 or negative.China's deposit quantity is quite large,Real deposit interest rate if it is negative,Residents' deposits interest income is very few,We must increase savings to compensate,So consumption was reduced.

　　过去10年，消费占GDP比值是往下走的，老百姓的收入占GDP比值也是往下走的，利率管控对经济结构调整产生了明显的不利影响。同时，负存款利率也助长了房地产及股市的泡沫。连带的低贷款利率则助长了产能过剩。

In the past 10 years,The ratio of consumption to GDP is downwards,Common people's revenue to GDP ratio is also downwards,Interest rate control on economic structure adjustment have significant adverse effect.At the same time,Negative deposit interest rates also contributed to the real estate and the stock market bubble.Several low mortgage rates have promoted the excess capacity.

　　《英才》：数量控制造成了什么现实的后果？

[elite]:Quantity control what caused the real consequences?

　　华而诚：贷款规模控制及分配政策，导致少数企业以低于市场的利率拿到贷款。而为数众多的小企业只得从民间借贷市场以高利率取得资金，带来资金断裂的风险。

China and sincere:The size of the loan control and distribution policy,Lead to a few enterprises with below market interest rates to get loans.And a large number of small businesses had to from folk lending market interest rates to get funds,Bring the risk of capital to rupture.

　　过去这两年，银行发行的理财产品很多。理财产品的价格是开放的，其利率比存款利率高，以争取存款客户。理财产品成为一种金融创新、一种正规的管制借贷市场与自由借贷市场对接的桥梁，将储蓄变成了投资。

The past two years,Banker's financial product a lot.Financial product price is open,The interest rate than deposit rates high,In order to strive for deposit customer.Financial products become a kind of financial innovation/A kind of formal control lending market and free lending market docking bridge,The savings into investment.

　　理财产品其中不少是一年以下的短期产品。它们与货币，尤其是M1，有高度的替代性与竞争性，使得传统的货币概念变得模糊。今年M1的增速极低，但是，谁能说货币的增长少了？

Financial products many of which are less than a year short-term product.They and monetary,Especially the M1,A high level of alternative and competitive,Make the traditional monetary concept has become fuzzy.This year the M1 growth is extremely low,but,Who can say money growth is less?

　　上世纪80年代，美国金融市场推出了大量金融创新产品，包括理财产品、信托、资产证券化、货币基金等等，这直接导致其货币统计从M1延伸至M7，对美联储的货币政策造成很大挑战。所以，1992年，格林斯潘上台后的做法是以公开市场操作直接控制联邦基准利率，以影响长期利率，通过“以价制量”来控制货币供应量。

In the 1980 s,The United States financial market launched a large number of financial innovation product,Including financial products/trust/Asset securitization/Monetary fund and so on,This led directly to the statistics of its currency from M1 extend to M7,The fed's monetary policy pose a big challenge.so,In 1992,,Alan greenspan, the practice of after taking in open market operation directly control the federal funds rate,To influence the long-term interest rates,Through the"To price system quantity"To control the money supply.

　　市场化的路径 Marketization path

　　《英才》：利率市场化的路径应该怎样？最基本标志是什么？

[elite]:Interest rate marketization path should be how?The most basic mark??? What???

　　华而诚：从利率开放的实际经验来讲，先上浮贷款利率的国家比较多。存款利率上浮有两个影响：产生竞争，可能造成揽储存款大战；存款利率上浮，贷款利率也要上，因为银行要有固定的利差。

China and sincere:From the interest rate open practical experience speaking,First ascents loan interest rates more countries.Deposit interest rate rise has two effects:Produce competition,May cause LAN storage of war;Deposit interest rate rise,Loan interest rate to,Because the bank to have fixed interest margin.

　　因此，在“金融抑制”的地区，利率的市场化多会带来利率的上涨。如有不慎，可能冲击宏观经济的稳定。我们要注意1970年代南美洲利率市场化的失败经验。存款利率今年可以上浮10%，表明利率市场化往前走了一步。

therefore,in"Financial repression"area,The marketization of interest rate will bring interest rates rise.If he,The potential impact of macroeconomic stability.We should pay attention to in the 1970 s South American interest rate marketization failure experience.Deposit interest rate can rise 10% this year,Shows that interest rate marketization go on the step.

　　《英才》：有分析认为，在货币政策放松的时间点，进行存贷款利率的放松是一个比较合适的时间点。你怎样认为？

[elite]:Have analyzed that,In the monetary policy relaxation time point,Interest rate on the relaxation is a more appropriate time point.How do you think?

　　华而诚：利率市场化非常迫切，关键看有没有决心最重要。利率管制取消后，金融机构才会有压力建立能覆盖风险的资金定价机制，并从事一系列的相关改革。

China and sincere:Interest rate marketization is very urgent,The most important key look have determination.Control of interest rate was cancelled,Financial institutions will be pressure to establish to cover risk capital pricing mechanism,And engaged in a series of related reform.

　　《英才》：存款保险制度是必须的吗？

[elite]:Deposit insurance system is a must?

　　华而诚：我认为存款保险制度是必须的。利率市场化后，金融波动及风险会加大。市场经济条件下，不能假定银行不会倒闭。其实倒闭是对银行很大的约束。存款保险制度就是一个明显的信号，即各种体制的银行都是平等的。

China and sincere:I think the deposit insurance system is a must.After interest rate marketization,Financial volatility and risk will increase.Under the conditions of market economy,Can't assume that the bank will not collapse.In fact failed to bank a lot of constraints.Deposit insurance system is an obvious signal,That is all kinds of system of bank are equal.

　　《英才》：你怎么看目前金融体系中，银行业的一枝独大？

[elite]:What do you think of current financial system,Banking a single large?

　　华而诚：中国现在的金融体系是间接金融，钱要经过银行再贷出去。直接金融是指直接把钱借给贷款人，比如通过股市、债市直接融资，但这部分占比非常少。至今中国80%的资金都是从银行贷出去的。这种不平衡造成信贷资产膨胀很快，银行资本金压力很重，迫使发新股、筹资、再融资、资产证券化的需求非常强烈。

China and sincere:China's current financial system is indirect financial,Money should pass bank loans out again.Direct financial refers to direct lend money to borrowers,Such as through the stock market/Direct financing bond market,But this part of the accounts for less than very.Yet the 80% of the money from bank loans out.This imbalance caused by credit asset inflation soon,Bank capital pressure are very heavy,Forced new hair/financing/refinancing/Asset securitization of very strong demand.

　　中国人民银行去年公布了一个新的统计数据：社会融资总量。这个数据除了包括银行信贷之外，还有其他很多融资渠道，尤其是资本市场的统计，更加多元化。所以，中国必须发展资本市场，通过银行的信贷融资比例将来一定是减少的，直接融资容量一定是增加的，这是大的趋势，同时也反映一个经济体金融市场的成熟程度。央行推出社会融资总量的数据，其实一定程度上暗示必须“以价制量”，因此走利率市场化的道路也是必须的。

The people's bank of China announced last year, a new statistical data:Social financing amount.This data in addition to including outside the bank credit,There are many other financing channels,Especially capital market statistics,More diversified.so,China must develop capital market,Through the bank's credit financing proportion in the future must be reduced,Direct financing capacity must be increased,This is a big trend,At the same time also reflect a economies financial market maturity.The central bank introduced social financing of the total amount of data,In fact a certain extent suggest that must be"To price system quantity",So go interest rate marketization road is also necessary.

　　《英才》：金融创新需要监管，但要如何监管？

[elite]:Financial innovation need supervision,But how to regulate?

　　华而诚：现在的问题是中国的监管似乎太多。需要监督的该监督，但是管理这个问题，是微观经济体的事情，是银行自己的事情，应该由金融机构自己来管。否则，金融是难创新的。

China and sincere:The question now is the supervision of the China seem to be too many.Need supervision of the supervision,But the management the question,Is the micro economy things,Is the bank's own things,Should the financial institutions to tube.otherwise,Finance is difficult to innovation.