杨燕青 孙红娟

YangYanQing SunGongJuan

　　作为亚洲乃至全球最引人关注的投资者之一，淡马锡一直被光环所围绕。尽管和新加坡的主权投资基金（GIC）不同，淡马锡的投资组合很透明，但在中国公众眼中，依旧披着神秘的面纱。在2008~2009年的金融危机中，淡马锡和其他金融机构一样遭受重创，投资组合价值从2008年的1850亿新元跳水至2009年的1300亿新元。其后几年，淡马锡显示出应对危机的卓越能力和韧性，投资组合在迅速拉升后稳步走高，2011~2012财年定格在1980亿新元（图1）。

As Asia and even the world's most compelling one of investors,Temasek has been aura surrounded.Although and Singapore sovereign investment fund(GIC)different,Temasek portfolio is very transparent,But in China the public eye,Still covered with mysterious veil.In the 2008-2009 financial crisis,Temasek and other financial institutions as take a heavy toll,Portfolio value from 2008 in $185 billion diving in 2009 to $130 billion.After a few years,Temasek shows that coping with crisis of the outstanding ability and toughness,Investment portfolio is rapidly pull to rise steadily after go high,In fiscal year 2011 ~ 2012 stopped at $198 billion(Figure 1).

　　淡马锡跑赢市场的奥秘在哪里？不久前，在热带雨林设计风格的总部办公室，淡马锡战略总裁谢松辉（Chia Song Hwee）接受了《第一财经日报》的独家专访。在他看来，“四大投资主题”是引领淡马锡的“红宝书”。不过，如何具体执行这四大主题，恐怕只可意会很难言传。采访末了，谢松辉找出一张图（图2），展示了淡马锡更高回报跑赢市场的理由——或许，这就是传说中真正的“长期投资者”。

Temasek run to win the market mystery in where?Not long ago,In the tropical rain forest design style headquarters office,Temasek strategy XieSongHui President(Chia Song Hwee)accepted[The first financial daily]Exclusive interviews with.In his view,"Four big investment theme"Is the leading temasek"Little red book".but,How to carry out this four major theme,I'm afraid it is difficult to explain in words but meanings.Interview last,XieSongHui find a picture(Figure 2),Show the temasek higher returns run to win the market reason - perhaps,This is the story of true"Long-term investors".

　　专注亚洲和转型经济 Focus on Asia and transition economies

　　第一财经日报：最近淡马锡公布了新财报，新兴市场在淡马锡的投资组合中占了非常重要的地位，其中亚洲又占据了大部分。未来在投资区域的分布上，你们是否会发生一些改变？

The first financial daily:Recent temasek announced the new earnings,Emerging markets in the temasek portfolio accounted for a very important position,The Asia and occupying most of the.In the future investment area distribution,Whether you will happen some changes?

　　谢松辉:在过去的十年中，我们一直专注于新兴市场的投资，这是和我们的四大投资主题（转型中的经济体、增长中的中等收入阶层、强化比较优势、新兴的龙头企业）相关。这四大投资主题在2002年就已经确立，只不过当时我们没有成文，我们的投资是一直按着这个方向做的。我们投资的大部分份额是在新加坡、亚洲以及其他新兴市场国家，因为这两个地区都与我们的一个投资主题，即“转型中的经济体”密切相关。转型中的经济体就是那些快速成长的新兴市场，这些国家主要分布在亚洲、非洲、中东以及拉美地区。

XieSongHui: in the past ten years,We always focus on emerging market investment,This is and our four great investment theme(An economy in transition/In the growth medium income class/Strengthen the comparative advantages/The new leading enterprise)related.These four big investment theme in 2002 already established,Only when we have no written,Our investment is always according to this direction do.Most of the share is our investment in Singapore/Asia and other emerging market countries,Because the two regions and one of our investment theme,namely"An economy in transition"Closely related to.An economy in transition is the rapid growth of emerging markets,These countries are mainly distributed in Asia/Africa/The Middle East and Latin America.

　　正是基于这四大投资主题，我们的投资组合中有72%放在亚洲，拉丁美洲目前的投资数额比较小，但在增长。为什么我们如此钟情于亚洲？如果你来看下这个地区的GDP及其增长潜力，答案是非常清晰的：中国经济目前的体量是7万亿美元，印度是1.7万亿~1.8万亿美元，东盟各国加起来是2.2万亿美元，都是很大的经济体，而且正在快速发展，不断追赶发达经济体。淡马锡投资追求长期的高增长潜力，自然会聚焦在这个区域。

Based on the four big investment theme,Our portfolio of 72% in Asia,Latin America the current investment amount is small,But in the growth.Why we are so interested in Asia?If you look at the region's GDP and its growth potential,The answer is very clear:China's economy at present volume is 7 trillion dollars,India is $1.7 trillion to $1.8 trillion,Asean countries added up to $2.2 trillion,Is very big economies,And is rapid development,Continuously pursue developed economies.Temasek investment pursue long-term high growth potential,Naturally focus in this area.

　　日报：亚洲确实是一个最有增长实力的地区，但无论是新加坡还是中国，都面临人口结构问题，这会对经济带来一些挑战，淡马锡会采取怎样的策略来应对这方面的挑战？

daily:Asia is really a most growth in strength,But both Singapore and China,Face population structure problems,It will bring some challenges on the economy,Temasek will take what kind of strategies to cope with this challenge?

　　谢松辉:说到人口结构变化，中国的确存在老龄化问题，但要造成你所说的挑战的话，可能要20年以后了。20年对于投资而言是比较遥远的事情。

XieSongHui: speaking of population structure change,China really do exist aging problem,But to make you say words of challenge,May be twenty years later the.For 20 years in investment is more distant things.

　　日报：如何界定投资中的短期、中期和长期？在这点上，淡马锡和主权基金以及PE是否有所不同？

daily:How to define the short-term investment/Mid-term and long-term?In this,Temasek and sovereign wealth fund and PE is different?

　　谢松辉:我们的投资都不是短期的，所以也没有短期的投资窗口，我们关注十年或十年以上的投资期限。你只要看看我们持有的是哪些公司，就可以明白我们是绝对的长期投资者。只要这个公司符合我们的投资主题，我们就会一直持有这些公司的股份。

XieSongHui: we are not short-term investments,So there is also no short-term investment window,We focus on a decade or more investment period.You only have to see what we have plenty of holding company,Can understand we are absolutely long-term investors.As long as the company is in compliance with our investment theme,We will always hold the shares in the company.

　　倚重能源和金融 Rely on energy and financial

　　日报：财报显示，你们在资源和能源领域的投资很大，背后有怎样的考虑？

daily:Results show,You in the field of resources and energy of the great investment,What is behind the consider?

　　谢松辉:这还是和我们的投资主题相关。我们的投资主题之一是：专注新崛起的中产阶层。随着中产阶层的收入和生活水平提高，他们自然会对金融和物流等行业服务产生更高的需求。另外，城市化的进程会带动基础设施的发展，而这些都需要资源的支撑，例如钢铁和铜等；随着城市化的加速，对于电力的需求也会增加，我们来看一组数据，美国目前人均每年对石油的消费是25桶，而中国人均是2.2桶，现在中国城市化的速度是20%，所以你们还有很大的消费增长空间。我们认为原材料和能源领域还有很大发展空间。

XieSongHui: this is our investment and related theme.Our investment is one of the theme:Focus on the rise of the new middle class.Along with the middle class's income and living standard to improve,They will naturally to finance and logistics industries services have a higher demand.In addition,The course of urbanization will drive the development of infrastructure,And all these need the support of resources,Such as steel and copper, etc;With the acceleration of urbanization,For the demand of electric power will increase,We come to a set of data,The United States currently every year to per capita consumption of oil is 25 barrel,And China's per capita is 2.2 barrel,Now China's urbanization speed is 20%,So you still have a lot of consumption growth space.We think of raw materials and energy field also has the very big development space.

　　日报：你们更加关注传统能源还是新能源，比如核能、太阳能？

daily:You pay more attention to the traditional energy and new energy,Such as nuclear power/solar?

　　谢松辉:我们不会设定一个范围，这就要提到我们的另外一个投资主题：比较优势，即相对优势，相对于行业趋势、相对于整个行业的技术水平等。例如，目前石油和煤为主的能源供应格局造成了严重的环境污染，但天然气有其优势，随着新技术的开发，天然气正在对先前的能源消费方式造成颠覆性的影响，那些掌握天然气前沿技术的公司就具有显然的比较优势。在这样的思路下，我们投资了一家美国的页岩气开发公司。此外，我们还投资了一家美国的清洁能源公司和中国的昆仑石油。同样，我们选择这两家企业也是因其在能源运输领域的比较优势。

XieSongHui: we won't set a range,This is about to mention our another investment theme:Comparative advantage,Namely relative advantage,Relative to the industry trend/Relative to the industry's technical level, etc.For example,At present oil and coal is the dominant energy source of supply pattern caused serious environmental pollution,But gas has its advantages,With the development of new technology,Natural gas is in the previous energy consumption means to cause subversive influence,Those who master gas frontier technology company has obviously comparative advantages.In such ideas for under,We invested in an American shale gas development company.In addition,We have invested in an American clean energy companies and China's kunlun oil.The same,We choose the two companies is also in the energy field of transportation because of its comparative advantage.

　　日报：我们来谈谈金融行业，有人说金融行业已经成了夕阳产业，不管是依旧没有结束的危机还是现在层出不穷的丑闻，好像都指向一个同样的方向。

daily:Let's talk about the financial industry,Someone said that the financial industry has become a declining industries,Whether it is still not the end of the crisis is now emerge in endlessly scandal,Like all point to the same direction.

　　谢松辉:我们不这么认为，从长期来看，金融服务业对经济是非常重要的，不管是银行业、保险业，还是更广泛的金融业都是如此。经济的运行离不开金融服务业，随着人们越来越富有，对于金融业的需求是不断提升的。通过投资银行业，其实你间接对很多行业打开了投资的窗口，这是跟踪整体经济的有效方式。

XieSongHui: we don't think so,In the long run,Financial services for economy is very important,Whether the banking industry/insurance,Or more extensive financial industry is so.The operation of the economy from financial services,As people become more and more rich,For the needs of the financial sector is constantly improving.Through the investment banking,In fact you indirect for many industry opened the window of the investment,This is the effective way to track the overall economy.

　　日报：淡马锡不会降低对金融业的投资？

daily:Temasek does not reduce to the financial industry investment?

　　谢松辉:我们会随时对我们的投资组合进行调整。最新公布的财报显示，对金融行业的投资比重在我们总体的投资组合中有所降低，但这主要是市场波动引发的，并非我们主动调整了对银行业的投资。

XieSongHui: we'll keep our portfolio to adjust.The latest results show,On the financial industry investment proportion in our overall portfolio of reduced,But this is mainly caused by the market fluctuation,Not we actively adjust the investment banking industry.

　　日报：谈谈在中国的投资。你们持有工行和建行的股份。中国现在正在进行的利率市场化会降低息差水平，这会对淡马锡的投资造成负面影响吗？

daily:Talk about the investment in China.You hold icbc and China construction bank shares.China is now the interest rate marketization will reduce the level of spreads,This will to temasek investment cause negative effect?

　　谢松辉:还是要长期来看这个问题，如果考虑到中国经济发展的潜力和前景，我们仍然会继续投资中国的金融业。当然会有一些改变，例如在监管层面的新政策会对这个行业产生影响；也有一些改革的行为，比如你刚刚说的利率市场化，但这些都是短期的挑战，长期而言，这些监管和政策改变以及正在进行的改革，对于银行业和其他泛金融行业是有利的。例如，当前大公司主要从银行借钱，企业债券市场非常小，政府也正在制定一些政策，这对金融业而言是一个好消息。总之，短期是挑战，但长期是机会。

XieSongHui: or in the long term this problem,If you consider that China's economic development potential and prospect,We will continue to invest in China's financial industry.Of course there will be some changes,For example, in regulatory levels of the new policy will affect to the industry;There are also some reform behavior,For example you just said interest rate marketization,But they are short-term challenges,In the long run,These regulation and policy changes and ongoing reform,For the banking industry and other flood financial industry is favorable.For example,The current big company mainly from the Banks to borrow money,Enterprise bond market is very small,The government is making some policy,The financial industry is a good news.In a word,Short-term is a challenge,But long-term is opportunity.

　　投资债市不为多元化 Bond market investment for diversity

　　日报：如果比较一下新兴市场和发达经济体，我们很容易得出一个结论，这就是新兴市场拥有更高的经济增长速度，但新兴市场的波动性也会比较强，作为一个长期投资者，淡马锡是否采取措施来规避这些波动？或者因为长期投资，所以自然就回避了这种波动性？

daily:If compare emerging markets and developed economies,We are very easy to arrive at a conclusion,This is the emerging markets have higher economic growth rate,But emerging market volatility will also stronger,As a long-term investors,Temasek is take measures to avoid the fluctuation?Or because of long-term investment,So naturally to avoid the volatility?

　　谢松辉:说到波动性，其实发达国家也有，尤其在过去5年中，这一点非常清楚。不过你讲得很对，作为长期投资者，我们在规避市场波动方面有一些优势，我们认为基本价值不会在市场波动中被毁掉，当然我们也会采取一些反周期操作，这是长期投资者的优势。但总体而言，市场波动性是很难规避的，也很难对冲。

XieSongHui: speaking of volatility,In fact the developed countries have,Especially in the past five years,It is very clear.But you said is quite right,As long-term investors,We in eluding market fluctuation has some advantages,We think that the basic value will not in the market fluctuation was destroyed,Of course we will also take some reverse cycle operation,This is the advantage of long-term investors.But in general,It is hard to avoid the volatility of the market,Is difficult to hedge.

　　日报：淡马锡谨慎地扩大了投资组合的覆盖范围，例如从传统的股票投资中分出一部分投资买卖期权，其目的是什么？未来会加大这方面的份额吗？

daily:Temasek carefully to expand the coverage of portfolio,For example from the traditional stock investment spare part of the investment business option,Its purpose is to what?The future will increase the share?

　　谢松辉:我们确实有这方面的投资，不过在我们的投资组合中占比不大，另外，这些期权其实还是基于股票的投资。我们还有其他的非权益性投资——就是债券类，但占比也比较小。我们并不是为了投资组合多元化才使用其他投资工具，我们的投资是结合当前的经济大环境做出的选择。在债券方面，我们没有投资国债和政府债券，我们投资的债券收益更高，这是我们股票投资组合的自然延伸。

XieSongHui: we do have this investment,But in our investment in the combination of than not,In addition,These options in fact or based on stock investment.We have other than equity investment - is bonds,But accounted for less than also.We are not in order to portfolio diversification to use other investment tools,Our investment is a combination of the current economic environment to make choice.In the bonds,We have no investment Treasury bonds and government bonds,We investment bond yields higher,This is our stock portfolio natural extension.

　　当然我们必须得了解行业的波动，例如我们打算买哪家公司的债券，我们需要了解该公司从事的行业。我们并不仅仅投资一家公司或者仅仅投资于股票市场，我们是在资本市场的整体沉浮中投资，投资债市当然是我们的一种选择。有时候权益市场和债券市场周期并不相同，两者可能具有互补的作用，这也是我们会投资债市的一个原因。

Of course we have to understand the industry of the fluctuation,For example we are going to buy a company's bonds,We need to know about the company is engaged in the industry.We are not only investment company or just invest in the stock market,We are in the capital market overall ups and downs investment,The bond market investment, of course, is a kind of our choice.Sometimes equity market and bond market cycle is not the same,Both may have a complementary role,This is also we will invest in the bond market one reason.

　　日报：淡马锡在过去发行了一些债券，并对新加坡债券市场的收益率曲线产生了一定的影响，这里面有怎样的考虑？

daily:Temasek in the past released some bonds,And the Singapore bond market yield curve has produced certain effect,There is what kind of consideration?

　　谢松辉:其实我们发行的债券数量不是很大，我们的初衷是给自己建立市场约束。所以我并不认为对市场的收益率曲线会有大的影响。我们的收益率和市场对我们的理解有关，也和信用评级机构给我们的评级相关，我们很高兴，淡马锡的信用评级仍然维持在3A，这反映的是我们的信用质量。

XieSongHui: actually, we issued bonds quantity is not very big,Our purpose is to give oneself to establish a market restraint.So I don't think the market rate of return curve will have big influence.Our profitability and market for our understanding about,Also and credit rating agencies to our rating related,We are glad to,Temasek credit rating is still maintained at 3 a,This reflects our credit quality.

　　日报：现在新加坡也在考虑建立人民币离岸市场，这对淡马锡的投资组合管理会不会有新的影响？

daily:Singapore now are considering an offshore RMB market,The temasek investment portfolio management will there be new influence?

　　谢松辉:我们投资主要看基本面，是否建立离岸市场对我们投资不会造成什么具体影响，所以对我们的投资组合也不会产生什么大的影响。

XieSongHui: we investment basically see fundamentals,Whether to establish offshore market for our investment will not cause any specific influence,So for our portfolio to also won't produce any big influence.

　　日报：如何看待欧元区整体的状况，对于欧元区的银行和企业，现在是不是购买或者投资的好时机？

daily:How to treat the euro area overall situation,For the euro area's bank and enterprise,Now is a good time to buy or investment?

　　谢松辉:我们先从宏观上分析，我认为欧元区潜在的传染性风险还是很大的。首先，存在结构性问题的国家面临的经济问题非常严重，此外欧元区虽然采用单一货币但竞争力参差不齐，再加上高额债务，导致风险很大。但如你所说，当前的估值可能是很合适的。另外，欧元区其实有很多好企业，它们对欧洲的风险敞口其实很小，它们的主要利润来自亚洲或者全球，我们在跟踪这样的公司，它们中间或许有投资机会。

XieSongHui: we first from on macroscopic analysis,I think the eurozone potential infectious risk is very big still.First of all,Structural problems existing the countries face economic problem is very serious,In addition the eurozone while using a single currency but competitiveness is uneven,Plus high debt,Lead to the risk is very big.But as you say,The current valuation may be very appropriate.In addition,The euro area there are a lot of good enterprise,Their European risk exposure in fact is very small,Their main profit from Asia or the world,We are keeping track of the company,Among them might investment opportunities.

　　日报：淡马锡的投资组合面临最大的风险是什么？

daily:Temasek portfolio face the biggest risk is what?

　　谢松辉:从宏观层面来看，全球范围的不平衡，欧洲潜在的传染风险，美国经济继续缓慢复苏。宏观风险对淡马锡会有影响，这类似于万有引力定律之于万物。但从盈利能力而言，我们的投资组合具有抗风险性，表现好于市场，在市场大幅波动的情况下，我们的股东收益还在稳定增长，这足以证明淡马锡投资组合的韧性。

XieSongHui: from the macro level,Global imbalances,European potential infection risk,The United States economy continues to slow recovery.Macro risk for temasek will affect,This is similar to the law of universal gravitation is to all things.But from in profitability,Our portfolio has good risk,Good performance in the market,In the market under the condition of fluctuations,Our shareholders income also in the stable growth,It is enough to prove temasek portfolio toughness.