本刊特约作者 陈果/文

This special author ChenGuo/text

　　中国GDP增速将连续七个季度下滑，更为重要的问题是，中国是否还有较好的长期增长动能？

China's GDP growth would continuous seven quarter decline,The more important question is,Whether China and good long-term growth kinetic energy?

　　一种流行的说法是，中国政府、企业和家庭等主体的债务仍有进一步加杠杆的空间。整体来看，目前中国各部门的负债占GDP的比重与1975年的日本较为相近，明显低于1988年日本泡沫破裂前的水平。日本经济在1975年至1988年间经历了一段加杠杆之路，使日本经济维持在相对较快的水平。

A popular argument is,The Chinese government/Enterprise and the family, as well as the subject of debt still have further add lever space.The whole,At present Chinese each department's liabilities in GDP and 1975 years of Japanese relatively similar,Obviously less than 1988 years before its bubble burst level.The Japanese economy in 1975 to 1988 experienced a period of add lever road,Japan economy maintained relatively fast in the level.

　　在计入融资平台贷款和其他地方政府隐形债务后，2011年末，中国政府负债达到GDP的43.7%，是1988年日本政府负债比例的四分之三；非金融企业负债占GDP的94%，是日本1988年的三分之二，家庭部门的债务占比只有日本1988年的一半。

In the recorded in the financing platform loans and other local government debt after contact,By the end of 2011,The Chinese government debt amounted to 43.7% of GDP,In 1988 the Japanese government debt proportion of three quarters;Non-financial enterprise liability accounts for 94% of GDP,Japan's 1988 years of two-thirds,The household sector debt than only Japan accounted for half of the 1988.

　　但我们认为，本次中国经济调整与2008年最大的不同在于，它需要处理2008年大规模刺激的后遗症，一旦银行资产质量恶化明显，中国很可能也将经历痛苦的资产负债表衰退过程。

But we think,The Chinese economic adjustment and in 2008 the biggest different depend on,It need to deal with 2008 large-scale exciting sequela,Once the bank asset quality deterioration obviously,China will also most likely experience the pain of the balance sheet recession process.

　　当前经济增速大幅下降，企业营收状况显著恶化，短期内难以奢望恢复强劲增长，银行资产质量无疑将受到明显波及。根据我们分类别估算与测试的结果，在本轮经济调整过程中，中性条件下国内银行体系不良贷款比率将升至3.7%，如果基于2011年规模，将形成2.3万亿元的不良贷款，而在悲观情形下不良贷款可能超过4万亿元。中国银行(601988,股吧)体系的资产负债表需要修复，中国经济有出现流动性陷阱的风险。

The current economic growth to drop considerably,Enterprise revenue situation significant deterioration,In the short term is difficult to expect recovery strong growth,The quality of bank assets will no doubt be remarkably affected.According to our classification don't estimation and test results,In this round of economic adjustment process,Neutral condition domestic bank system non-performing loan ratio will reach 3.7%,If the scale based on 2011,Will form 2.3 trillion yuan of non-performing loans,And in pessimistic situation bad loans may be more than 4 trillion yuan.The bank of China(601988,guba)The balance sheet of the system needs to be repaired,China's economy has liquidity trap risk.

　　以下是我们对各部分贷款压力测试的结果（并不代表实际的坏账如此）。

The following is our to each part loan pressure test results(Does not represent the actual bad debt so).

　　小企业贷款不良率上升至5% Small business loan defect rate rise to 5%

　　在宏观周期下行阶段，小企业贷款是重要的风险领域。根据银监会披露的统计结果，国内小企业的不良贷款率是企业贷款整体不良率的1倍，其中500万元以下的小微企业贷款的不良贷款率是整体的4倍。截至2011年末，全国小企业不良贷款余额为2107亿元，比2011年初减少435亿元；不良贷款率为2.02%，比年初下降0.95个百分点。

In macro cycle descending phase,Small business loans is an important field of risk.According to the statistical results of banking regulatory commission (CBRC) disclosure,Domestic small bad loans is the enterprise loan overall defect rate of 1 times,The 5 million yuan of the following small small enterprise loan of bad loans is four times of the whole.By the end of 2011,The small business non-performing loan balance is 210.7 billion yuan,At the beginning of 2011 than a decrease of 43.5 billion yuan;Bad loans is 2.02%,At the beginning of more than 0.95% decline.

　　过去几年中整体经济形势相对较好，因此小企业贷款尽管风险偏高，但贷款不良率仍然逐年回落，到2011年末仅仅是2%左右。

The past few years the overall economic situation is relatively good,So small business loan although risk is on the high side,But the loan defect rate still dropped year by year,To the end of 2011 is only about 2%.

　　最近两年随着经济增长的放缓，小企业贷款风险可能进入暴露期。与此同时，为了鼓励小微企业发展，给予小企业资金支持的政策要求陆续出台，2011年银监会也曾表示，将对小企业贷款不良率的容忍度提高到5%。因此，我们将5%作为中性情形的不良贷款率，将8%作为悲观情形下的不良贷款率，这分别对应5000亿元和8000亿元的不良贷款规模。

Over the past two years with the slowdown in economic growth,Small business loan risk may enter the exposure period.meanwhile,In order to encourage small micro enterprise development,Give small business financial support policy for the comes on stage in succession,In 2011, the CBRC also has said,For small business loans defect rate increased to 5% tolerance.therefore,We will be 5% as neutral case of bad loans,Will be 8% as pessimistic situation of bad loans,The corresponding 500 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan of the scale of bad loans.

　　融资平台不良规模6000亿 Financing platform bad scale 600 billion

　　由于融资平台的项目周期较长，项目质量与偿付能力尚未得到检验，资产质量问题难有定论。

Due to the financing platform project cycle is long,The project quality and solvency has not been tested,Asset quality problem a twist.

　　我们将1998年为“保增长”发行特别国债上的基建项目的贷款质量作为本轮融资平台项目贷款的基准。在2002年，中国人民银行天津分行对天津、河北、山西和内蒙古四省市的贷款质量做过回顾，结果不良贷款比率是2.4%，关注类贷款比率18.2%。

We will be 1998"The growth"Issuing special bonds on the construction project loan quality as this financing platform project loans benchmark.In 2002,The people's bank of China to tianjin tianjin branch/hebei/Shanxi and Inner Mongolia four provinces of loan quality done review,Results non-performing loan ratio is 2.4%,Pay attention to class loan ratio of 18.2%.

　　贷款质量与整体经济形势息息相关，1998年时主要是东南亚与俄罗斯爆发金融危机，尽管国内出口部门压力较大，但全球整体经济形势好于当前。当年国内那些基建项目的质量一定程度上受惠于房地产改革和加入WTO后的大环境，当前投资的基础设施项目边际回报率可能下降。

Loan quality and the overall economic situation is closely linked,In 1998 is mainly southeast Asia and Russia outbreak of financial crisis,Although domestic export department greater pressure,But the global economic situation better than the current.The domestic the construction project quality to a certain extent, benefit from real estate reform and join the WTO environment,The current investment in the infrastructure projects marginal rate of return may decline.

　　出于谨慎性的原则，中性条件下我们假设，本轮刺激中投放的融资平台贷款质量差于1998年，即不良率为5%，关注类贷款占比25%，并有10%的关注类贷款最终转化为不良贷款，全周期的不良率为7.5%，这将会形成6000多亿元的不良贷款。而在悲观条件下，不良率可能会高出一倍达到15%，不良贷款可能超万亿元。

Out of the principle of caution,We assume that the neutral condition,This irritation on the financing platform loan quality is poor in 1998,Namely defect rate is 5%,Pay attention to class loans accounted for more than 25%,And 10% of the pay attention to class loans eventually into bad loans,The whole cycle of the defect rate is 7.5%,This will develop more than 6000 one hundred million yuan of non-performing loans.And in pessimistic conditions,Defect rate may be twice as high as 15%,Bad loans may exceeds one trillion yuan.

　　房地产贷款坏账2000亿 Real estate loans bad loans 200 billion

　　房地产是本轮经济调控的重点，也是资产质量担忧的重灾区之一。截至2011年末，商业银行的房地产贷款余额约3.6万亿元，占贷款总额的8.5%，而按揭贷款有6.4万亿元，占贷款总额的14.9%。

Real estate is the focus of this round of economic regulation,Is also the asset quality concerns one of the worst-hit areas.By the end of 2011,Commercial bank real estate loan balance of about 3.6 trillion yuan,Accounted for 8.5% of the total amount of the loan,And mortgage loans have 6.4 trillion yuan,Accounted for 14.9% of the total amount of the loan.

　　银监会曾做过一次压力测试，认为房价下跌30%-50%的情况下，房地产开发贷款不良率仅上升2%，按揭贷款不良率仅上升1%左右。这一测试更多是针对房地产单部门的静态测试结果。一旦房价大幅下跌，市场交易冻结，实体经济将会严重受损，系统性风险一旦爆发，可能会出现大量的偿付风险。

The CBRC has to do a pressure test,Believe that house prices fell 30% - 50% of the cases,Real estate development loans only defect rate up 2%,Mortgage loan defect rate only rise by about 1%.This test is more in real estate single department static test results.Once the house prices fell sharply,Market freeze,The real economy will be badly damaged,Systemic risk once the outbreak,May appear a large amount of reimbursement risk.

　　我们仍然参考历史数据来估计合理的坏账水平。2004年末，四大行汇总的开发商贷款不良贷款率为10.5%，当时有上世纪90年代海南以及广西北海等地地产泡沫破裂后的一部分历史负担，我们以此作为偏悲观情形下房地产开发贷款的安全边际。

We still reference historical data to estimate reasonable level of bad loans.By the end of 2004,Four line summary developer loans bad loans is 10.5%,When the 1990 s hainan and the guangxi beihai, after the real estate bubble burst part of the burden of history,We regard this as a partial pessimistic situation of real estate development loans margin of safety.

　　而到了2006年，全国商业银行房地产行业不良贷款比率是6.61%，当时农行、光大尚未完成坏账剥离，数据里仍然包含了一部分历史包袱。所以。中性条件下目前房地产开发贷款的质量应该好于2006年的情形，因此我们以5%作为中性条件下房地产开发贷款的不良率水平，这大致会形成2000亿-3000亿元的坏账。

And by 2006,The national commercial bank real estate industry non-performing loan ratio is 6.61%,At that time the agriculture bank/Everbright unfinished bad loans stripping,The data is still contains a part of historical burden.so.Neutral condition at present real estate development loans quality should be good in 2006 cases,So we to 5% as neutral conditions of real estate development loans defect rate level,This general form 200 billion - 300 billion yuan of bad loans.

　　钢贸与铜贸贷款高风险 Steel trade and copper trade loan risk

　　钢贸属于批发零售行业，确实也是容易发生不良贷款的高危行业。在过去几年中批发零售业属于贷款增长较快的领域。根据银监会的统计结果，2011年商业银行在批发零售行业的贷款总额约为4.86万亿元，占商业银行贷款总量的11.3%，比2008年提高了3个多百分点。根据第二次经济普查的结果，矿产品、建材及化工产品批发子行业的营业收入在批发零售业中占44.9%，资产规模占全行业的33%。钢铁制造业的销售收入在建材、有色、化工、炼油等子行业中占到23%。如果批发零售行业的信贷在这些子行业中的分配与销售收入大体相当的话，钢铁贸易贷款规模大约在5000亿元左右。

Steel trade belong to wholesale and retail industry,Really is also prone to non-performing loans high-risk industry.In the past few years wholesale and retail industry belongs to the loan growth faster field.According to the statistical results of CBRC,2011 commercial Banks in wholesale and retail industry loan amount is about 4.86 trillion yuan,Commercial bank loans accounted for 11.3% of the total,More than 2008 increased more than three percentage points.According to the results of the second economic census,minerals/Building materials and chemical products wholesale fruit industry operating income in the wholesale and retail industry accounted for 44.9%,Asset scale accounted for 33% of the whole industry.Iron and steel industry sales income in building materials/non-ferrous/chemical/DengZi oil refining industry at 23%.If wholesale and retail industry credit in these fruit industry in the distribution and sales income is approximately the same words,Iron and steel trade the size of the loan at about 500 billion yuan.

　　按照钢协信息中心统计的结果，全国26个主要钢材市场中，五大钢材社会库存总量大体维持在1500万-1800万吨，以4000元-6000元/吨的价格计算，全部钢材的社会库存货值在1000亿元的水平。由于不同银行间存在信息沟通协调问题，我们假设出现3倍左右的重复质押率，这样估算出来的钢贸贷款余额规模应该是3000亿元左右。

According to the steel association information center statistical results,The national 26 main steel market,Five steel social stock total gross maintained at 15 million - 18 million tons,With 4000 yuan - 6000 yuan/tons of price calculation,All steel social inventory value is in 100 billion yuan level.Due to the different between bank information communication coordination problems,We suppose there three times the left and right sides of repetition and analyzes loan-to-value ratio,This estimate of the steel trade loan balance scale should be 300 billion yuan.

　　在批发零售领域，另一个潜在风险点是贸易铜融资。2011年以来随着流动性持续被抽紧，部分铜进口的目的很大程度上脱离了实体需求和贸易，演化成利用贸易形式获得信用证并由银行承兑，套取资金用作他途，甚至涉足民间借贷等高风险领域。

In the wholesale and retail field,Another potential risk point is copper trade financing.Since 2011 as liquidity continues to be ChouJin,Part of the purpose of the copper imports largely from the entity needs and trade,Evolution into use trade form to obtain the l/c and accepted by a bank,Show the funds used for his way,Even in the folk borrowing high risk areas.

　　2012年，每月未锻造铜与铜材进口金额平均220亿元，由于国内融资铜往往开具90天或180天的远期信用证，以支持6个月铜进口金额的周期估计，中国贸易铜融资规模的理论上限在1300亿元。2012年上半年，上海保税区内铜库存量为50多万吨的高位，市值约合250亿元。所以，我们估计中国高风险的铜贸易融资规模在500亿元左右。

In 2012,,Monthly not forging copper and copper imports amounted to an average of 22 billion yuan,Because the domestic financing copper often draw 90 days or a 180 - day usance l/c,To support the six months copper import amount of cycle estimation,China's trade copper financing scale theory limit is in 130 billion yuan.In the first half of 2012,Shanghai copper stocks in the bonded area for more than ten thousand tons of high,Market value is about 25 billion yuan.so,We estimate that China high-risk copper trade financing scale in 50 billion yuan or so.

　　根据前述估算，钢贸和融资铜贷款规模上限在3500亿元左右。如果风险释放比较充分，假设出现10%的不良率，整个商业银行体系中可能会形成350亿不良贷款；在悲观情形下，30%的不良率将对应1000亿元不良贷款。

According to the estimation,Steel trade and financing copper the size of the loan ceiling in 350 billion yuan or so.If the risk is relatively full release,Suppose there 10% of the defect rate,The commercial bank system may form 35 billion bad loans;In the pessimistic situation,30% of the defect rate will be corresponding 100 billion yuan non-performing loans.

　　表外资产及其他风险估计 Off-balance-sheet assets and other risk assessment

　　自从2010年央行、银监会开始大刀阔斧地收紧信贷闸门，融资信托、委托贷款、承兑汇票等融资工具的规模开始大幅扩张，表外资产与影子银行成为资产质量风险的焦点领域之一。

Since 2010, the central bank/CBRC aggressive start to tighten credit,Financing trust/Entrust loan/Acceptance and the size of the financing tools began to expand,Off-balance-sheet assets and shadow Banks to become the focus of risk assets quality one of the areas.

　　银监会公布的数据显示，截至2011年末，商业银行的表外加权资产规模为6.9万亿元，比2010年增长了将近30%，在加权资产中占到13.8%。

The CBRC published data display,By the end of 2011,Commercial bank's off-balance sheet weighted asset scale for 6.9 trillion yuan,More than 2010 grew by nearly 30%,In weighted assets accounted for 13.8%.

　　银行表外资产包括各种或有资产和负债。由于不纳入资产负债表，受监管机构的考核和制约相对较少，这部分资金的投向相对灵活，流向的行业受限相对较少。且表外资金不需要严格按照“三个办法，一个指引”的要求执行，可能被投放到风险相对较大的领域。而在实际运营中，确实也有不少表外资金进入回报率较高的房地产开发行业。因此，我们比照风险最大的房地产开发行业进行测试，即中性条件下不良率5%，偏悲观情形下不良率为10%。

Bank off-balance-sheet assets include all kinds of or have assets and liabilities.Because do not included in the balance sheet,By regulators assessment and restrict relatively less,This part of the funds to the relatively flexible,The flow of industry limited relatively less.And off-balance sheet funds do not need in strict accordance with the"Three measures,A guide"Requirements execution,May be put on risk relatively large areas.But in actual operation,Indeed there are many off-balance-sheet funds into the rate of return higher real estate development industry.therefore,We risk by applying mutatis mutandis the largest real estate development industry testing,That is neutral condition defect rate 5%,Partial pessimistic situation defect rate is 10%.

　　除开这些相对高危的领域，我们将其他领域作为整体来看待。我们参照海外尤其是美国银行业的经验数据对此进行估计。上世纪90年代以来，在经济经历衰退期间，美国非地产贷款的违约率会从低点上升1%-2%。考虑当前不良贷款率是1%左右，在中性和悲观的条件下，其他贷款不良率分别假设为2%和3%。因为前面已经将高风险领域单独列举，其他的贷款质量应偏好，所以我们这个估算也有一定的安全边际。

Except these relatively high-risk areas,We will other areas to look at as a whole.We refer to overseas, especially the United States banking experience data to estimate.Since the 1990 s,In the economic recession period,The United States is not real estate loan default rate will rise from the low 1% - 2%.Considering the current bad loans is around 1%,In neutral and pessimistic conditions,Other loan defect rate was 2% and 3% respectively hypothesis.Because the front will have high risk areas are alone,Other loan quality should be preference,So we this estimate also to have certain margin of safety.

　　作者为广发证券(000776,股吧)宏观分析师

The author is wide hair negotiable securities(000776,guba)Macroscopic analysts