北方的秋天让河北某个旅游重镇显得明丽而温婉。但曾经喧嚣的建筑工地此时却一片静谧，起重机伸出的一条条长臂膀悬在半空，永远定格在那里，好像一个警示符号。

Northern autumn let hebei a tourist town appears bright and beautiful and wen wan.But once noise of the construction site at this time but a piece of quiet,Crane outstretched a long arms hanging in the air,Never stopped there,As a warning sign.

　　“这里三四月份就停了。”出租车司机小赵说，“国家收缩了货币，银行不给钱了，包工头拿不到钱，都回家去了。”

"Three stopped here in April."The taxi driver said little zhao4 zi3,"National contraction money,Banks don't give money,Padrone can't get the money,All went home."

　　他还告诉记者，最受影响的是那些拆迁户，政府拆了房子后答应人家5年后就有房子，现在工程停了下来，拆迁户可着急了。其实政府压力也很大。

He also told reporters,The most affected are those that households,The government house down after five years have promised to somebody else's house,Now engineering stopped,Households can be worried.Actually the government pressure is very big also.

　　从法律上讲，中国的地方政府是不允许向银行借贷的，但开展市政建设和基础设施需要大笔资金，政府就通过设立融资平台公司的方式，以政府财政为担保向银行借钱，这个模式在2009年政府采取4万亿元刺激措施时，被几乎所有地方政府效仿。

From a legal point of view,China's local governments are not allowed to bank lending,But in municipal construction and infrastructure to the large sum of money,The government through the establishment of financing platform company approach,Government fiscal for guarantee to Banks to borrow money,This mode in 2009 the government to adopt 4 trillion yuan stimulus measures on,Be almost all local government to follow.

　　“政府都没有诚信，那还能指望谁有诚信啊。”一位地方商业银行信贷部的人士说。在稳增长的前提下，地方政府基础建设目前仍然在继续，但是收入却开始缩减，一个是财政收入增幅降低，一个是土地出让金收入遭腰斩。

"The government are not good faith,It can also expect who have the good faith ah."A local commercial bank credit department say.In the premise of steady growth,The local government infrastructure is still on,But incomes has started to shrink,One is to reduce financial income growth,One is the land grant fee income was ks.

　　这就在地方政府方面形成了一个矛盾的景观：一方面是债务仍然在膨胀，另一方面是收入却在不断地萎缩。

It is in the local government formed a contradiction of the landscape:On the one hand is still in debt expansion,On the other hand is income is in constant atrophy.

　　地方投资方兴未艾 The local investment is in the ascendant

　　大手笔投资的故事远远没有结束。

The story of the financial investment is far from over.

　　9月5日，发改委官方网站发表批复25个轨道项目的消息，这些项目涉及资金在8400亿元左右；第二天发改委又批复13个公路建设项目、10个市政类项目和7个港口、航道项目，规模至少2000亿元，两天批复的项目总投资规模超过1万亿元。

On September 5,,Development and reform commission official website published reply 25 rail project news,The project involves funds in 840 billion yuan or so;The second day development and reform commission and reply 13 highway construction project/10 municipal kind of project and seven port/Channel project,Scale at least 200 billion yuan,Two days of the rights to the project total investment more than 1 trillion yuan.

　　分析人士认为这些项目集中批复的最主要目的就是“稳增长”。但这些只是中央批准的项目，而各地方政府的宏观投资计划开始“你方唱罢我登台。”

Analysts believe that these projects focus reply of the most main objective is"Steady growth".But these are only the central approved project,And the local government macroscopic investment plan to start"Your singing on the stage I "."

　　8月中旬，重庆抛出“十二五”期间投入1.5万亿元实现工业产值倍增的庞大计划。与以往喜欢做金融中心或者现代服务业中心不同，这次的投资计划前面冠以“新型”二字。

In the middle of August,Chongqing throw"1025"Period spent 1.5 trillion yuan to realize the industrial output multiplier huge plan.And in the past like to do financial center or modern service industry center different,The investment plan with front"new"Two words.

　　这个计划包括，“十二五”期间重庆工业投资要累计达到1.5万亿元，建成电子信息、汽车、装备、化工、材料、能源、消费品七大千亿级产业集群，到2015年工业总产值突破3万亿元。

The plan will include,"1025"Chongqing during industrial investment to up to 1.5 trillion yuan,Built electronic information/car/equipment/chemical/material/energy/Consumer goods seven yuan level industry cluster,By 2015 gross industrial output value exceeding 3 trillion RMB yuan.

　　这意味着3年后重庆工业年产值将实现倍增。

This means that three years after chongqing industrial annual output value will achieve multiplication.

　　同为直辖市的天津市也推出了同类计划，天津市经信委日前初步确定，今后4年天津市将投入1.5万亿元重点建设10条产业链，以进一步壮大该市产业规模、调整产品结构和促进产业聚集。

As tianjin municipalities directly under the central government also launched a similar plan,By the letter of tianjin committee has preliminarily determined,In the next four years in tianjin will be $1.5 trillion key construction ten industrial chain,To further expand the city's industry scale/Adjust the product structure and promote industrial gathered.

　　这10条产业链规模将从现在的1.2万亿元扩大到2016年的4万亿元，具体包括规模达万亿元的石油化工产业链和重型装备产业链以及汽车产业链、物联网云计算产业链等。

This article 10 industrial chain scale will be from the current 1.2 trillion yuan expanded to 2016 yuan in 4 trillion,Specific include scale CTKM one hundred million yuan of petroleum chemical industry chain and heavy equipment industrial chain, as well as automobile industry chain/Things networking cloud computing industry chain, etc.

　　而作为改革开放龙头的广东也不甘落后，该省总计提出177个重点建设项目，总投资过万亿元。7月16日，广东省实施重大建设项目向民间投资公开招标，首批共推出44项，总投资额2353亿元。紧随其后的是长沙8292亿元的重大推介项目。

As a leading reform and opening up of the guangdong also unwilling to lag behind,The province put forward total 177 key construction project,With a total investment of over one trillion yuan.July 16,,The major construction project implementation of guangdong province to private investment in the public bidding,The first launched a total of 44,A total investment of 235.3 billion yuan.Followed by changsha 829.2 billion yuan major promotion project.

　　此外，还有贵州、山西、长沙等城市，这些城市明显的一个共性是它们都把投资重点定在基础设施。在广东最开始推出的2353亿元项目中，交通和城建项目的投资额占到近六成。而贵州的3万亿元投资计划，也主要用于交通和医院等基础设施建设。

In addition,And guizhou/shanxi/Changsha city such as,These cities obvious a common is that they all the investment priority set in infrastructure.In the beginning of guangdong launched 235.3 billion yuan project,Traffic and urban construction project investment accounted for nearly sixty percent.Guizhou and the 3 trillion yuan investment plan,Is mainly used for traffic and hospitals and other infrastructure construction.

　　长沙市近日推出的195个项目分为两大类，包括总投资3748亿元的40个重大项目和总投资4544亿元的155个一般项目，涵盖了片区建设、基础设施、城乡一体化以及产业建设等多个方面。

Changsha recently launched 195 project is divided into two categories,Including a total investment of 374.8 billion yuan of 40 major projects and a total investment of 454.4 billion yuan RMB 155 a general project,Covers the area construction/infrastructure/The integration of urban and rural areas and industrial construction, etc.

　　政府收入下降 Government revenue decline

　　一般而言，地方政府的收入主要包括两部分，一是财政收入，二是出卖土地收入，但今年这两项都不容乐观。

Generally speaking,The local government revenue mainly includes two parts,One is the financial income,The second is to sell the land income,But this year the two are not optimistic.

　　随着宏观经济的疲软，地方政府的财政收入正面临下滑局面。以经济相对发达的杭州市和广东省为例。上半年，杭州财政收入几乎所有的口径指标全线下降，公共财政预算收入下降2.7%。而即使稍有增长的指标也都在1%以下——全市财政总收入同比增长0.8%，若要完成全年863亿元的目标，下半年杭州财政增速要达29%。

With the macro economic weakness,Place the fiscal revenue for the government is facing a downturn situation.With economy is relatively developed hangzhou and guangdong province as an example.In the first half of,Hangzhou fiscal revenue almost all the diameter index decline range,Public finance budget income fell by 2.7%.And even a slight growth index are below 1% - the fiscal revenue of 0.8% year-on-year growth,If you want to complete the goal of year for 86.3 billion -,In the second half of the hangzhou financial growth to 29%.

　　外贸大省广东，今年上半年指标完成竟然没有过半。今年上半年广东省公共财政预算收入完成2994.34亿元，增长8.64%，仅高于2009年金融危机时的同期水平，仅完成年初预算的49.37%。

Foreign trade major province of guangdong,In the first half of this year index complete unexpectedly has no more than half.In the first half of this year guangdong province public finance budget revenue finished 299.434 billion yuan,Growth of 8.64%,Just above the 2009 financial crisis over the same period level,At the beginning of finished only 49.37% of the budget.

　　有媒体将全国31个省(自治区、直辖市)前6个月的财政收入数据进行统计，并对比年初设定的财政收入目标，结果显示，全国近四成地方政府在时间过半的情况下，并未完成一半的财政收入任务。

Media will be the national 31 provinces(Autonomous region/Municipality directly under the)The first six months of fiscal revenue data statistics,And at the beginning of contrast set fiscal revenue goals,Results show that,Nearly forty percent of the local government in time more than half of the cases,Has not completed the half of the fiscal revenue task.

　　其中，黑龙江省今年年初安排财政收入为1863.7亿元，但在今年上半年仅完成644亿元，约完成预算的34.6%；重庆市一般预算收入安排1710亿元，但在今年上半年仅为826.1亿元，约完成预算的48%；新疆、云南、青海等地区的财政收入也并未达到年初设定目标的一半。

the,Earlier this year in heilongjiang province arrange finance income for 186.37 billion yuan,But in the first half of this year only complete 64.4 billion yuan,About completed 34.6% of the budget;Chongqing general budget revenue arranged 171 billion yuan,But in the first half of this year is 82.61 billion yuan only,About completed 48% of the budget;xinjiang/yunnan/Qinghai and other regions fiscal income also did not reach setting goals at the beginning of the half.

　　土地出让收入更是呈现断崖式下跌。中国指数研究院的数据显示，今年上半年，全国300个城市土地出让金总额6525.98亿元，同比下降38%，缩水超过4000亿元。

Land transfer income but also present bluff type down.China index research institute data display,In the first half of this year,The country's 300 city the land grant fee total 652.598 billion yuan,38% year-on-year drop,Shrink more than 400 billion yuan.

　　以北京为例，上半年北京共计成交72块土地，总出让金额为144.8亿元，同比下降55.7%，仅为去年全年的13.7%。同时，今年上半年北京土地买卖成交量创4年新低，土地均价创3年来最低，土地平均溢价率创5年来最低。上海是往年土地收入最多的省市之一，也下调了今年的土地收入预算，为1250亿元。

For example Beijing,In the first half of 72 land Beijing clinch a deal,The total amount of $14.48 billion,55.7% year-on-year drop,Only 13.7% for all of last year.At the same time,In the first half of this year Beijing land sales volume and low 4 years,Land average price and lowest for three years,Average land premium rate and the lowest in five years.Shanghai is usual land income is one of the most provinces and cities,Also cut this year's land income budget,For 125 billion yuan.

　　土地收入缩水的同时，土地收入中的支出却在增加。按照有关政策规定，目前土地出让净收益中已有45%被明确指定用途：10%用于保障房建设，10%用于教育投入，10%用于水利建设，15%用于农业土地开发。

Land income shrink at the same time,The spending land income is increasing.In accordance with the relevant policies,At present land transfer net income of 45% has been specifically designated:10% used to safeguard room construction,10% used for education investment,10% used in water conservancy construction,15% used for agricultural land development.

　　加上近年来随着农民对于自身权益保护意识的逐渐加强，征地拆迁成本也在攀升，有人测算，土地出让金中超过60%是拆迁征地的成本，只有1/3才是地方土地财政的净收益。

Add in recent years along with the farmers for their own rights and interests protection consciousness gradually strengthening,The land expropriation cost is rising,Some measure,More than 60% of the land grant fee is the cost of land expropriation,Only a third is the place land financial net income.

　　土地收入的下降源于自2010年开始的史上最严厉的房地产调控，随着调控趋严，土地成交量大幅下滑，开发商拿地的热情就被浇灭了，有些地方甚至开始由地方党政一把手亲自游说开发商拿地。

Land income from decline since 2010's history the most severe real estate regulation,With the strict control,Land turnover fell sharply,Developers take the enthusiasm has been poured out,Some places even started by local party and government a personally lobbying developers to take.

　　近期，温州市政府就一次性推出52宗共计3220亩土地，供应力度前所未有。

recent,Wenzhou government one-time out of a total of 52 cases of 3220 mu of land,Supply power unprecedented.

　　温州市委副书记、市长陈金彪在投资推介会上亲自向300多名投资商“吆喝”，他们号称温州房地产市场经过这一轮的盘整已回归理性，当前，无论对买方还是卖方而言，都是最佳介入期。

Deputy secretary of municipal party committee of wenzhou/The mayor ChenJinBiao investment promotion meeting in myself to more than 300 investors"call",They allege wenzhou real estate market after this round of consolidation has regression rationality,The current,No matter to the buyer or the seller concerned,Are the best intervention period.

　　除温州外，今年下半年不少地方政府推地速度和力度都在加强，如南京一日预公告41幅地块，武汉一日土地拍卖收入达121亿元。尽管如此，土地收入还是在以惊人的速度下滑。

In addition to the wenzhou,The second half of this year many local governments push to speed and strength are strengthening,Such as nanjing day advance notice and picture block,Wuhan, a land auction income reached 12.1 billion yuan.Even so,Land income or in decline at an alarming rate.

　　找钱、找钱 change/change

　　就在各地动辄上万亿元推出投资计划的时候，钱从哪里来却是一个火烧眉毛的问题。

The trillions of dollars easily around launch investment plan,Where the money came from is a fire eyebrows problems.

　　“兄弟，现在地方政府还能从哪里融到资金啊？”在一个论坛上，一位地方政府官员这样问身旁的PE（私募股权投资）投资人士。

"brother,Now the local government also where can melt to money?"In a BBS on,A local government officials ask side of PE(Private equity investment)Investment people.

　　这位人士建议找信托融资，除了信托，地方政府的融资渠道几乎都被封死了。PE自己的钱大多套在上市前的企业中了，二级市场一直下跌，自身都很难保，而商业银行已经对政府性贷款如同房地产一样避之唯恐不及。

The personage proposal for trust financing,In addition to trust,Local government financing channels almost are blocked off.PE own money in most set before listing in the enterprise,Secondary market has been down,Itself is no,The commercial bank has to government loans as real estate as -steered clear.

　　不过这位PE投资人也告诉记者，现在信托融资成本太高，收益率一般都在12%～13%之间，尽管信托卖得好，但信托公司也要控制风险，对地方政府未来的收益也要做好调查的，并非所有地方政府都可以发信托融资。

But the PE investors also told reporters,Now the trust financing cost is too high,Yields generally between 12% ~ 13%,Although trust sell very well,But trust company also want to control risk,To local government future earnings should also be made investigation,Not all local government can deliver trust financing.

　　审计署2011年对地方政府的债务进行过一次全方位审计，之后公布的数据显示，截至2010年末，地方政府性债务余额总计已达10.7万亿元。其中，有78个市级和99个县级政府偿还责任债务的债务率高于100%。由于偿债能力不足，部分地方政府只能通过举借新债偿还旧债，截至2010年底，有22个市级政府和20个县级政府的借新还旧率超过20%。

The 2011 years to local government debt in a comprehensive audit,Announced after the data display,By the end of 2010,Local government debt balance total has reached 10.7 trillion yuan.the,There are 78 municipal and 99 county government debt repayment liability ZhaiWuLv higher than 100%.Due to the lack of solvency,Some local governments can be borrowed by new debt to repay the old debt,By the end of 2010,22 a municipal government and 20 county government by the new old rate is more than 20%.

　　该统计报告还显示，今明两年有24.5%和17.2%的地方债务集中到期，而未来3年需要偿还的比例则超过53%。由于许多地方政府连归还银行的利息都出现了困难，银监会不得不出台政策，对那些还不上债务的地方实行展期。

The statistical report also showed,In the next two years have 24.5% and 17.2% of the local debt maturity concentration,But the future 3 years need to repay ratio is more than 53%.Because many local government even return bank interest has difficulties,The CBRC had to policy,For those who do not practiced in places where the debt extension.

　　不过，由于中国地方政府官员一般都是5年任期，任期结束，本届官员或升迁、或调任、或退休，那些较长期的债务将留给下一届政府官员，这显然将严重约束下一届政府的财政能力。

but,Because of China's local government officials are generally 5 years in office,Term ends,The officials or promotion/Or transfer/Or retired,The longer-term debt will be left to the next government officials,This obviously is going to serious constraint the next government financial ability.

　　郎咸平：中国债务危机正式爆发 Lang hsien-ping:China's debt crisis formal outbreak

　　早在今年元旦前，香港经济学家郎咸平就公开表示“中国债务危机正式爆发”，并预计今年底将有2.62万亿元债务到期。

As early as in before New Year's day this year,Hong Kong economists lang hsien-ping said went public"China's debt crisis formal outbreak",And is expected to end there will be $2.62 trillion debt maturity.

　　中国债务风险到底有多大？

China how much debt risk?

　　近30年来，全球发生了很多次经济、金融危机，而这些危机几乎都与债务有关。以前的危机主要集中在发展中国家，原因是发展中国家大量举债发展民族经济，由于投资巨大而效益低下，造成无力还本付息，最终演变成债务危机。

Nearly 30 years,The global economic happened many many times/Financial crisis,And these crises and almost all the debt.Previous crisis mainly in developing countries,The reason is developing countries a lot of debt the development of national economy,Due to the huge investment and low benefit,Cause weak repayment of capital and interest,Eventually evolved into debt crisis.

　　而最近几年的债务危机则在欧美等发达国家展开。这些国家在次贷危机发生后，实施了扩张的财政政策和积极的货币政策，加之高福利遭遇人口老龄化问题的障碍，最终演变成棘手的债务危机。

But in recent years the debt crisis is in Europe and the United States and other developed countries expansion.These countries in the subprime mortgage crisis occurs,Implement the expansion fiscal policy and positive monetary policy,Together with gao fuli encounter the problem of aging population in the disorder,Eventually evolved into difficult debt crisis.

　　有意思的是，中国似乎总能从一次次危机中走出来，这是否意味着中国危机相对较小？郎咸平的看法是：中国既有发展中国家债务危机的隐患，也有发达国家债务危机的隐患。

Interesting is,China always seems to go out again from the crisis,Does this mean that China's crisis relatively small?Lang hsien-ping view is that:China both developing countries the hidden trouble of the debt crisis,Also have developed countries the hidden trouble of the debt crisis.

　　郎咸平认为，在中国出口、投资和消费三驾马车中，政府主导的投资占据很重要的地位。以前，地方政府可以通过卖地、税收等方式，筹集投资所需的资金。

Lang hsien-ping think,In China's export/Investment and consumption in the troika,The government leading investment occupies very important position.before,Local governments can of sale through/Means such as tax,To raise funds for investment.

　　现在卖地的收入由于高房价的常年透支，空间已越来越小，有些地方的卖地收入与往年相比，已出现明显下降趋势。在这种情况下，放行地方债就不得已而为之。

Now the income of sale due to high house prices perennial overdraft,Space already more and more small,In some places of sale of income compared with previous years,Already appear obvious downtrend.In this case,Release local debt is necessity.

　　郎咸平认为，与发达国家相比，中国的公共福利体系不完善，这方面的投资少，似乎没有高福利催生出债务危机的隐忧。但脆弱的社会保障体系同样会减弱抗风险能力，一旦经济出现问题，很容易演变成社会性危机。

Lang hsien-ping think,Compared with the developed countries,China's public welfare system not perfect,This aspect of less investment,There seems to be no gao fuli gave birth to the debt crisis of malaises.But fragile social security system also will weaken the risk resistance capacity,Once the economic problems,Very easy to evolve into social crisis.

　　而且，中国原本应该表现为负债的项目，实际上是以增发货币的方式完成的。从本质上来说，这也是一种负债，是对国民的隐性负债。

and,China originally should show as liabilities project,In fact is the way of the complete additional money.Essentially,This is also a kind of liability,Is the national hidden liabilities.