发达经济体的新一轮货币“宽松”浪潮，在CPI已出现反弹的中国，引发了市场对未来输入型通胀压力加大的担忧。同时，CPI的上游、受经济走势影响更为直接的PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）却在反向运行，截至2012年8月已连续6个月下跌，且跌幅不断扩大。

Developed economies of the new currency"loose"wave,CPI has rebounded in China,Cause the market to future imported inflation pressure increasing concerns.At the same time,Upstream of CPI/By the economic trend influence more direct PPI(Industrial producers ex-factory price index)But in the reverse operation,By the end of 2012 on August has continuous 6 months down,Fall and continues to expand.

　　看似扭曲的数据，折射的是中国内需疲弱的局面仍没有改善。企业去库存化的艰难及多领域产能全面过剩困境，加剧了工业品生产领域的通缩隐忧。

Seemingly distorted data,Refraction is China's domestic demand weak situation is still no improvement.Enterprise to inventory turn hard and field capacity comprehensive surplus dilemma,Increased industrial production field of deflation malaises.

　　在生意社首席分析师刘心田看来，QE3对大宗商品的利好此前市场已经有所消化，现在已经开始往回走了，“商品市场最值得关注的是原油暴跌，这发生在QE3推出不久，出乎不少人意外”。

In business club chief analyst LiuXinTian looks,QE3 for commodities after market good have been digestion,Now has begun to turn back the,"Commodity market most remarkable is in crude oil,This occurs in the QE3 launch soon,Not many people accident".

　　刘心田认为，原油是对QE3反应最早最直接的，后市将有其他品种会随QE3的作用消退而“浮华尽褪”。

LiuXinTian think,Crude oil is the earliest QE3 reaction to the most direct,Market outlook will have other varieties can follow QE3 role and extinction"Vanity do faded".

　　职业投资者扬韬对此观点表示认同。他认为，QE3实际上是降低美国国债的收益率，等于变相的降息，会使得美元的资金、贷款比较多，导致美元计价的商品价格上涨，“这并不存在必然的关系，决定原材料价格的最终还是需求，而对于中国来说，目前需求明显不足”。

Professional investors Yang hide one's view agree.He thinks,QE3 is actually reduce the Treasury bonds,Equal to the rate cut in disguised form,Makes us dollars funds/Loans more,Led to a dollar denominated commodity prices,"This does not exist inevitable relationship,Decide the final price of raw materials or the demand for them,And for China,At present needs obvious deficiency".

　　扬韬的判断并非没有依据。

Yang hide one's judgment is not no basis.

　　作为宏观经济运行的先行指标，9月汇丰中国制造业采购经理人预览指数(PMI)为47.8，已连续11个月处于萎缩。PMI产出指数为47.0，达10个月最低水平。表明中国制造业仍面临困境。

As the first index of operation of macro economy,September HSBC China manufacturing purchasing managers' index of preview(PMI)47.8,Already continuous 11 months in atrophy.PMI output index was 47.0,Up to 10 months minimum level.That Chinese manufacturing is still faced with a difficult situation.

　　发电量也不乐观。电监会9月17日公布数据显示，8月份全社会用电量4495亿千瓦时，同比增长3.58%。增速创出今年2月公布用电量数据以来的新低。 狭义货币供给量M1增速一直被视为反映企业资金状况和经济景气度的重要信号。8月末M1同比增速只有4.5%，虽比4、5月份的历史低点有所上升，但依然处于极低水平。

Power generation is not optimistic.Electric prison will be September 17 released data show,August 449.5 billion kilowatt-hours power consumption in the whole society,Year-on-year growth of 3.58%.Growth this year makes February since power consumption data low. Narrow money supply M1 growth has been regarded as reflecting enterprise capital position and economic boom of important signal.Late August M1 only 4.5% year-on-year growth,Is more than 4/The history of the may low increased,But still at a very low level.

　　安信证券高级固定收益分析师景晓达指出，如果真实的经济状况指的是工业企业或制造业企业情况，那中国经济很早就进入通缩和产能过剩的状态了。

Anxi senior fixed income securities analyst pointed out that JingXiao reach,If the real economy refers to the industrial enterprise or manufacturing enterprise situation,The Chinese economy is very early in deflation and excess capacity of the state.

　　然而，目前CPI与PPI走势的背离，无疑增加了政策判断的难度。

however,At present CPI and PPI movements deviation,No doubt increased the difficulty of policy judgment.

　　记者对比历史数据发现，近十年来，CPI和PPI的走势非常一致，PPI的持续负增长，都会带来CPI随后出现负增长。最近一次是2008年12月至2009年11月，PPI连续出现了12个月的负增长，CPI则在稍后两个月，从2009年2月至2009年10月连续9个月负增长。

Reporter found that comparative historical data,Nearly 10 years,CPI and PPI trend very consistent,The PPI for negative growth,Can bring CPI subsequent negative growth.A recent is December 2008 to November 2009,PPI continuous appeared 12 months of negative growth,CPI is in two months later,From February 2009 to October 2009 continuous nine months of negative growth.

　　“目前CPI很难和PPI一起进入通缩状态的原因是里面有很多结构性问题，这些结构性问题集中体现在与劳动力成本相关的项目涨价的压力很大。”景晓达对《财经国家周刊》记者说。

"At present it is difficult to CPI and PPI together into deflation state reason is there are many structural problems,These structural problems embodied in labor costs and related project price under a lot of pressure."JingXiao reach to[Financial country weekly]reporters.

　　中国社科院金融重点实验室主任、华泰证券(601688,股吧)首席经济学家刘煜辉提出一个新命题：资产的通缩和物价的通胀是否能稳态地长时间存在？在他看来，这是一种非稳定的状态。最终的走向还是物价通缩。“我们讲债务的风险其实最终还是增长出了问题，收入增长跟不上债务膨胀的速度，通胀预期升级最终导致泡沫破裂。”

By the Chinese academy of social sciences financial key laboratory director/Huatai securities(601688,guba)Chief economist LiuYuHui put forward a new proposition:Asset deflation and price inflation can steady state long time existence?In his view,This is a kind of unstable state.The final trend or price deflation."We speak debt risk actually finally growth out of the question,Income growth couldn't keep up with the speed of debt expansion,Inflation expectations upgrade eventually lead to bubble burst."

　　中国人民大学发布的《2012年第三季度中国宏观经济形势分析与预测报告》指出，政府目前以市场为主导，通过调结构以保证经济的稳定可持续增长，应该成为政策目标的首要选择。报告建议，政府需要进一步推进工业化与城市化。“进一步的工业化和城镇化不仅是释放巨大需求、稳定短期增长的有效手段，也是结构调整的切入点和重要实现途径。”

Issued by the people's university of China[In the third quarter of 2012 China's macro economic situation analysis and forecast report]Pointed out that,The government is taking the market as the leading,Through the adjustable structure to ensure steady economic sustainable growth,Should be the primary choice of policy objectives.The report recommends that the,The government needs to further advance the industrialization and urbanization."Further industrialization and urbanization is not only a great demand for the release/Stable short-term growth effective means,Is also the point of structural adjustment and important way of realizing."

　　在中国人民大学经济学院副院长刘元春看来，基建项目投资对稳定经济增长会有一定的效果，但这种效果不是刺激性的。目前看中国下一步还会出现经济的回落，央行9、10月份将处于观望的状态。主要看9、10月份通胀反弹的力度，CPI回到3%的话，若央行进一步降息，则回到负利率时代，对资产价格逆转是一个刺激。

In China people's university, vice President of the school of economics LiuYuanChun looks,Construction project investment to stable economic growth will have certain effect,But this effect is not stimulating.Now the next step will also see China in economic decline,The central bank and/In October, will be in a state of wait-and-see.Basically see 9/In October, the strength of the rebound inflation,CPI back to 3% of the words,If the central bank to cut interest rates further,Back to the era of budget,On asset price reversal is a stimulus.

　　他认为，在全球采取积极的货币政策的时候，对于资本的逆转也应该要有一些前瞻性的判断，可能汇率的波动会适度提高，货币当局可以适度加大货币宽松的程度。“目前货币政策应加大对实体经济的渗透和支持，而不是简单的释放流动性。”

He thinks,In the global take positive monetary policy,For reversal of capital should also have some prospective judgment,May be because of the fluctuation of exchange rate will be moderately increasing,Monetary authorities can moderate increase currency loose degree."At present monetary policy should intensify the entity economic penetration and support,Rather than simply release liquidity."