[ 目前全球主要经济体没有谁处于繁荣阶段，维持增长变得可贵，越是此时，似乎越需要关注有哪些小概率事件可能使得全球和中国经济遭遇冲击 ]

[is currently the major economies no one in prosperity stage,Maintain growth become valuable,More at this time,Seems to need more attention to what small probability event may make the global and China's economic encounter impact]

　　目前全球主要经济体没有谁处于繁荣阶段，维持增长变得可贵，越是此时，似乎越需要关注有哪些小概率事件可能使得全球和中国经济遭遇冲击。

Is currently the major economies no one in prosperity stage,Maintain growth become valuable,More at this time,Seems to need more attention to what small probability event may make the global and China's economic impact encounter.

　　从长期看，“富国重债”问题何去何从值得警惕。这可能给全球金融体系带来颠覆性的灾难。

In the long run,"Rich heavy debt"What problem should be on guard against.This may give the global financial system bring subversive disaster.

　　1987年，美国联邦政府基本上没有债务，目前美国联邦政府债务已高达15.88万亿美元，对GDP的占比超过110%。1992年，日本政府的债务余额对GDP的占比为60%，目前已超过215%，债务余额高达12.62万亿美元。仅过了20多年，美日政府就已债务缠身。欧洲的主权债问题也类似，目前欧盟主权债总额超过10万亿欧元，其中欧元区公共债务/GDP占比超过87%，希腊、葡萄牙、意大利和爱尔兰的主权债/GDP均超过100%。过去10年，欧美日的债务膨胀均远超经济增长，令人不敢想象未来20年欧美日面对债务问题如何自救？

In 1987,,The federal government of the United States basically no debt,The current federal government debt has as much as $15.88 trillion,To account for more than 110% of GDP than.In 1992,,The Japanese government debt balance to GDP accounted for more than 60%,Has more than 215%,Debt balance as much as $12.62 trillion.Only after more than 20 years,The government is already in debt.Europe's sovereign debt problems are similar,The European Union sovereign debt total more than 10 trillion euros,The eurozone public debt/GDP ratio of more than 87%,Greece/Portugal/Italy and Ireland's sovereign debt/GDP by more than 100%.In the past 10 years,Europe and the United States, debt expansion are far beyond the economic growth,It is not imagine the next 20 years, Europe and the United States in the face of the debt problem how to save his life?

　　如果把中央政府债务分摊到每个国民头上，美、日国民人均负债分别为5.1万和9.9万美元。假定美、日人均年收入为4万~5万美元，储蓄率为10%，则日、美国民分别需要工作约20年和10年，才能还得上中央政府的债务。

If the central government debt allocation to each national head,beauty/Day the national per capita liabilities were 5.1 and 99000 dollars.Assume that beauty/The average per capita income, for $40000 to $50000,Savings rate is 10%,Is day/American people are need to work about 20 years and 10 years,Can also on the central government debt.

　　不仅如此，美、日两国中央政府债务由外国人持有的比例分别约25%和10%，因此美、日的债务困局不可能不冲击到全球货币体系。从长期看，债务堆砌和老龄化是一枚硬币的两面，若发达国家要负责任地解决债务问题，只能多生孩子晚退休、多储蓄少消费、多创新少福利。从短期看，欧美日均已陷入了零利率加量化宽松的极致状态。“富国重债”会是吞噬国际金融大厦的可怕海啸吗？

Not only that,beauty/The two countries, the central government debt held by foreigners the proportion of about 25% and 10% respectively,So beautiful/The debt, this could not impact to global monetary system.In the long run,Debt packing and aging is two sides of the same coin,If developed countries to responsibly solve debt problems,Only children late retirement/Many savings less consumption/Much less innovation benefits.In the short run,Europe and the United States has already sunk into a daily interest and quantitative easing the perfection of state."Rich heavy debt"Will be international financial building up the terrible tsunami?

　　从短期看，中美汇率争端，是否会悲剧性地上演？罗姆尼已明确表态，如果其当选，将以“汇率操纵”为名，迫使人民币汇率大幅升值。尽管近期美国就业数据好转，失业率低至7.8%，创四年来的新低，为奥巴马的连任添分，但罗姆尼和奥巴马的差距在不断缩小，对外经济战略或政策不能建立在侥幸的押宝方式上，不能假定奥巴马必然当选，或假定人民币汇率问题只是大选话题，若汇率冲突真发生，中国房地产将加速泡沫化，外贸将举步维艰。

In the short run,The exchange rate dispute,Whether it will tragic performed?Mr Romney has already made clear,If its elected,Will be"Rate control"name,Forced RMB exchange rates to rise sharply.Despite recent U.S. employment data better,Low unemployment to 7.8%,And four years to the lowest,For Mr Obama's reappointment add points,But Mr Romney and Mr Obama's gap is narrowing,Foreign economic and strategic or policy could not be build on a bet on the way,Can't assume that Obama was elected inevitably,Or assume that the RMB exchange rate just election topic,If the exchange rate conflict really happen,China's real estate will accelerate frothy,Foreign trade will be crippled.

　　回顾第二次世界大战以来的历史，先后有苏联、日本和欧元区居于全球第二大经济体的位置，但似乎都没有能承受住来自美国这位全球经济老大的沉重压力，而陷入了泡沫经济之中。如无大危机侵袭，中国将在2020年成为发达国家，在2027年左右取代美国成为全球最大经济体。我们不应赌谁能当选美国总统，而应看到人民币汇率随时可能成为全球话题。历史往往是会重演的，中国为人民币问题准备好了应对之策了吗？

The second review the history of since world war ii,Successively have the Soviet union/Japan and the euro area in the world's second largest economy position,But it seems all can not withstand the United States from the global economic boss of the heavy pressure,In a bubble economy.If no big crisis hit,By 2020, China will be become a developed country,Around 2027 replaced the United States as the world's largest economy.We should not bet on who can be elected President of the United States,And should see the RMB exchange rate could become the topic at any time.History is often will revive,China for the Chinese yuan ready of policy measures?

　　从长期看，中国银行(601988,股吧)业会否再次“背水一战”以迎战新危机？中国国运的根本在于坚持深化改革和开放，尤其是整体的自上而下的变革。从技术层面看，银行业能否稳健运行令人担忧。

In the long run,The bank of China(601988,guba)Industry will be no again"Bite the bullet and"To against the new crisis?China is to adhere to the fundamental phenomenon deepening reform and opening up,Especially the whole change from top to bottom.Technically,Banking can be stable operation worrying.

　　银行业仍有“三重门”需要穿越：一是利率市场化，习惯了躺在吃利差、拼规模温床上的银行，如何迎战利率市场化带来的金融体系大变革？二是地方债务，估计和银行相关的地方投融资平台贷款余额约为10万亿元，这尚不包括银行之外的地方债务平台。如果中央和地方的事权财权不能平衡，那么债务风险也会岌岌可危。三是随着增长放缓和结构转型，银行不良资产将逐步暴露，与此同时银行还面临巨大的补充资本的压力。

Banking still have"Triple door"Need through:One is the interest rate marketization,Accustomed to lie in eat carry/Spell scale hotbed Banks,How to play interest rate marketization bring financial system big change?The second is the place of debt,Estimation and bank related local investment and financing platform loan balance is about 10 trillion yuan,This is not including bank outside of the local debt platform.If the central and local governance property can't balance,So debt risk will also at risk.The third is along with the growth and structure transformation,Bad bank assets will gradually exposed,Meanwhile the bank still faced huge supplementary capital pressure.

　　2003年以来中国金融行业尤其是银行业的脱胎换骨，有体制改革的因素，但也带有幸运因素，中国成功地向次贷危机前即将走向泡沫巅峰的全球资本市场讲述了一个一个“中国故事”并获得了投资者的信任。

Since 2003 China's financial industry especially banking thoroughly remould oneself,A system reform factor,But also with lucky factors,China successfully to the subprime mortgage crisis is heading for a top foam before the global capital markets tells the story of one"Chinese story"And won the trust of investors.

　　2004年温家宝总理在总结国有银行股改上市时，曾表示：“背水一战，只许成功，不许失败。”当下，继续不思进取维持银行业现状，或许就是坐视其走向未来的黯淡。

In 2004, premier wen jiabao at the conclusion of the state-owned Banks listed on the other when,said:"Bite the bullet and,It's,No failure."then,Continue to maintain banking without status,Perhaps it is to sit back and watch it go the dark.

　　从短期看，中日钓鱼岛冲突始终可控吗？如果日本具有清晰的战略视野，那么当下推动中日韩在贸易和金融领域深化合作，例如创立自由贸易区，尝试货币一体化进程，东亚的未来命运将为之一新。可惜这样的愿景已渐行渐远。

In the short run,The diaoyu islands conflict always controlled?If Japan has clear strategic vision,So then promote the China, Japan and South Korea in trade and finance field deepen cooperation,For example founded free trade area,Try to monetary integration process,East Asia's future destiny will take on a new look.Unfortunately this vision is tapering off.

　　人们常用“政冷经热”来形容中日关系，日渐衰落、国民中位数年龄接近47岁的日本，其高得票的右翼化政府和政客，民意基础是整体国民的加速右倾。

People commonly used"Cold politics and hot"To describe relations between China and Japan,waned/National median age close to 47 of the Japanese,Its high votes right wing change government and politicians,Public opinion is based on the overall national accelerated right.

　　中日“政冷”惯性依旧，中日经济交往也将逐渐冰封。以日本汽车为例，在2008年前后曾占据中国约30%的市场份额，而今缩水到不足20%。中国在崛起，日本在衰落，岛争如刀刃上的双人舞，其走向会符合理性、对话和可控吗？

sino-japanese"Cold politics"Inertia is still,Sino-japanese economic exchanges will also gradually frozen.With Japanese cars for example,In the 2008 years before and after China had occupy about 30% of the market share,Now shrink to less than 20%.China is rising,Japan in the fading,Island for such as blade on the pas DE deux,The trend will meet rational/Dialogue and controlled?

　　为什么我们必须关注黑天鹅式的小概率坏事，而不是想象歌舞升平的好事？很简单，对喜剧可以不设防，对悲剧必须有所提防。报喜不报忧的习惯，让主流研究机构继续对2013年的中国经济保持乐观，较常见的预测是明年经济增长将超过8%，通胀则在3.5%~4%之间，看好的还是政府换届之后的政策冲动。

Why do we have to pay attention to black swan type of small probability bad thing,Not imagine the good musical singer?Very simple,To comedy can in the air,To have to beware of tragedy.The habit of bad news,Let the mainstream research institutions continue to 2013 years of China's economy remain optimistic,The more common prediction is economic growth next year will be more than 8%,Inflation is between 3.5% ~ 4%,Value or the government after the change of the policy of the impulse.

　　改革开放30年，战略层面的改革开放、战术层面的经济翻两番沿用至今，政府自身的惯性、惰性有加大的趋势。中国的未来之路在何方？在此我们必须警惕那些可能引爆经济动荡的导火索。

For 30 years of reform and opening-up,Strategic level of reform and opening up/Tactical economic quadruple continue to use up to now,The government own inertia/Inert have increasing trend.The future of China where the road?In this we must guard against those who may detonate the fuse economic turmoil.

　　（作者系北京师范大学金融研究中心教授）

(The author is Beijing normal university professor financial research center)