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大宗商品周评:油脂油料企稳反弹 工业品等待经济增速回升--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-10-20
新华网北京10月20日专电
Xinhuanet Beijing on October 20, special telegram
大宗商品周评:油脂油料企稳反弹 工业品等待经济增速回升 Commodities week evaluation:Grease oil stabilises rebound industrial waiting for economic growth picks up
新华社记者 王胜先 吴雨
The xinhua news agency reporter wang shengxian WuYu
本周(15至19日)油脂油料市场暂停了一个多月来连续下滑的态势,震荡反弹呈现企稳迹象。工业品多数延续震荡,上涨动能不足,特别是,受国内用电量增速再创新低,房地产投资增幅回落等打压有色、钢材等品种。
This week(15 to 19)Grease oil market suspended for more than a month to falling for the situation,Concussion rebound show signs of stabilising.Industrial most continue shock,Rise kinetic energy shortage,especially,The country's power consumption growth hit new lows,Real estate investment growth, such as back color press/Steel varieties such as.
随着美国干旱题材炒作的结束,油脂油料市场持续下跌已经一月有余,继上周的超跌后,本周受低位买盘推动,油脂油料市场企稳反弹,国际大豆、豆油期价分别上涨0.76%和1.8%,国内的大豆、豆油期价分别上涨0.43%和1.45%。
As the U.S. drought subject the end of the hype,Grease oil market continues to decline already more than January,After last week's super after the fall,By buying low this week to promote,Grease oil market stabilises rebound,International soybean/Soybean oil QiJia up 0.76% and 1.8% respectively,Domestic soybean/Soybean oil QiJia up 0.43% and 1.45% respectively.
近期油脂油料市场较为平静,美国、中国的大豆收割接近尾声,短期供应充足而且美豆产量仍有上调的可能令市场承压,前期的高价格也让不少农户对现在价格不满意,惜售心理增强。同时,南美主产区天气多雨,农作物播种条件理想,南美丰产前景是市场的另一潜在压力。银河期货分析认为,短期油脂筑底难言结束,国内经济或企稳给商品营造了较为稳定的环境,但因基本面无实质性利好出现,10月恐以震荡调整为主,关注后期南美天气变化及国内油脂消费情况。秋粮除了大豆价格不及预期外,国内玉米价格整体运行也偏弱。与去年同期陈粮较少,新玉米收购积极不同,今年不少贸易商、粮库仍有不少陈玉米急于出手,青黄不接的8月份玉米价格不但没有出现上涨,反而下滑,造成今年新玉米收购价格不及市场预期。
Autumn grain crops in addition to soybean price less than the expected,Domestic corn prices overall operation also weak.With the same period last year from the less,The new corn acquisition positive different,This year, many traders/There are still many Chen corn grain to make moves,Temporary shortage of August corn prices rise not only did not appear,Down instead,This year the new corn caused by purchase price less than market expectations.
特别是东北地区,不少玉米主产区遭受风灾,单产水平受影响,在高涨的生产成本中又令收割成本大增,农民对后市价格普遍看高,而玉米深加工企业终端产品需求低迷,收购价格难及农民预期,当前收购的进度明显慢于去年同期。目前玉米产区、销区的市场价格都偏弱,新玉米的集中上市将在11月份以后,市场最为关注的仍然是国家的临时收储价,虽然连续多年未启动临时收储政策,但该价格对市场具有指导性。
Especially in northeast China,A lot of producing corn by the devastating storm,Yield level affected,In the rising production costs and to harvest a cost,Farmers market outlook for price to look generally high,But corn processing enterprise terminal product demand downturn,The purchase price and expected to farmers,The current purchase progress far slower than the same period last year.At present corn production/XiaoOu market prices are weak,The concentration of new corn listed in November later,The market is still the most attention of the country's temporary collection and storage price,Although for many years did not start temporary collection and storage policy,But the price on the market has the guidance.
工业品方面,与经济形势密切相关,本周公布三季度以及9月份经济数据,三季度GDP同比增幅跌破7.5%的增速目标,已是连降7个季度走低,但是从环比来看,增速已连续两个季度回升。不少金融机构预测,目前同比增速料已接近底部,投资、消费、进出口数据均出现明显好转迹象,随着政策及季节性因素继续发力,四季度GDP同比增速有望重回7.5%以上。
Industrial goods,And the economic situation closely related,The third quarter and announced this week in September economic data,The third quarter year-on-year GDP growth below 7.5% growth target,Is seven quarter still lower,But in the link to see,Growth has two consecutive quarters back.Many financial institutions forecast,At present year-on-year growth material has been close to the bottom,investment/consumption/Import and export data are apparent signs improved,Along with the policy and seasonal factors continue to send force,Fourth quarter GDP year-on-year growth is expected to return to more than 7.5%.
经济触底的迹象提振了有色、钢材等工业品,但工业用电增速继续下降,重工业用电增速更是出现罕见的负增长,打压相关品种涨幅,铜、锌、铅等品种在本周五皆大幅回调逾1%,钢材、橡胶反弹受阻。北京中期分析认为,这表明工业复苏的基础仍不稳固,将成为限制经济快速反弹的主要因素。
Economic sole sign boost the colored/Industrial products such as steel,But the industrial power growth continue to fall,Heavy industry growth in electricity is rare negative growth,Crack down on related species or,copper/zinc/Lead the varieties such as back sharply on Friday are more than 1%,steel/Rubber rebound hindered.Beijing interim analysis think,This suggests that the foundation of industrial recovery is still not stable,Will be rapid economic rebound limited the main factors.
此外,国际市场方面,欧债问题再起导致美元走强,同时,全球经济放缓以及石油供应担忧等因素影响,国际油价在本周再度大跌,纽约和伦敦两地分别下跌1.97%和3.91%;在原油疲软的情况下,铁矿石、动力煤、焦煤等品种依旧较为抗跌。
In addition,In the international market,The debt problems rise to cause the dollar to going strong,At the same time,The global economic slowdown and worries about the impact of factors such as the supply of oil,International oil prices plunged again this week,Both New York and London falling by 1.97% and 3.91% respectively;In the crude oil under the condition of the weak,Iron ore/Power coal/Coking coal, etc varieties are still more resistance to fall.
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